iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,354 Blog Posts

Fuck Your Mustard Seeds

Believe me, I am not going to turn this classy joint into some sort of fucked up internet infomercial for my “premium products.” We worked really hard on developing and rolling out the product. So, I had to give it a little face time.

For those of you who signed up, thank you very much. For those of you who did not, you are now my enemies.

As for this tape:

The assholes in the government are fucking brain dead. The market says “BOOOO!” to the Citi deal, mainly because we all know C is dead. On top of that, we have a serious problem in the commercial Re space.

I am telling you now, the mess in Commerical Re is going to make the banks look like a fucking 3 year olds birthday party. What the fuck are they going to do with all of those damn buildings?

Once again, shorting ESS, FRT, MAC and SLG makes sense. Just so you know, I gave a few new picks in The PPT and I will have no intention of sharing them here.

Don’t mind me, I’m just being an asshole.

With my money, I want to lean on the euro here, via DRR. As for my longs: none of them are really significant or worthy to speak of.

I am not buying or selling anything, as tempting as it is. The only thing I am fixing to do is bring cash levels up to 60%, while gingerly adding, on occasion, to my robust ERY/DUG positions.

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My PPT Sales Pitch

Let me know how I did. Thanks.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysWRb9bqB-Y&feature=channel_page 450 300]

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THE PPT IS HERE!

Just so you know, I am wearing a tuxedo, top hat and holding a cane for the festivities. I hope you are dressed likewise.

I’ve been in the money management business for a long time. I’ve traded in the worst markets known to upright walking apes, and the best. I am a stock market junky, who spends more time reading research reports and mulling over equity data points on a weekly basis, than most investment professionals do in a year.

Anyone who reads my site knows the market belongs to “The Fly” aka Senor Tropicana, in a variety of ways—most obvious is my ability to book gains month in and month out— in a very “ho-hum, nothing to see here” sort of way, if I might be so bold as to say so. Investing comes easy to me. I offer no apologies.

Look, I can make this pitch page into some boring/lame excuse to subscribe to The PPT, giving you all sorts of pomp promises about the greatness of the product and my market hand. However, instead of doing that, just know this, I created The PPT, with the help of my IT guy, to further perfect my researching methods. I use it all day, everyday, prior to making investment decisions.

The PPT, all humor aside, saves me hours of time in research, cutting through all the bullshit, allowing me to isolate companies or etf’s worth investigating further. It is not the holy grail. However, it is, unequivocally, the best investment tool ever created, and by the way, has the blessings of all of the stock Gods.

In laymans terms, The PPT is an analytic engine that was created to grade stocks, based upon a variety of parameters—including both technical and fundamental data points. In addition, we’ve weaved in the price action of commodities (oil, gas, metals, agriculture), currencies (yen, dollar) and t-bills into our scores, all based upon historical correlating factors, and how they affect the share prices of the overall market and/or specific sectors. The system is not a slave to technical or fundamental analysis. It was designed to acknowledge both and, based upon my egregious experiences with other services, offers a much higher degree of market timing accuracy. And, let’s not forget, I created this damn thing. I am, without a doubt, much smarter than you. Indeed.

Finally, in addition to The PPT engine, I will provide direct assistance to subscribers, for no additional fee, which includes access to my top 10 positions, real time buys/sells, and custom screens worth perusing, on a nightly basis. It’s also worth noting, myself and other iBankCoin contributors will host a subscriber only blog and investment forum, all designed to enhance your “sub Fly” investment performance.

I hope you enjoy the product and make great use of it.

NOTE: Exclusive for PPT subscribers, I have a fairly in depth analysis up now, titled: “Betting Against Texas.”

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Trading With the Gods

If you did not read Chart Addict’s post, regarding handcuffing strange men to metal pipes, I strongly suggest doing so. Great stuff.

I want to expand upon what he said, with a little “Fly twist.”

I have tried all sorts of investment methods. During my career, I have been a Warren Buffett type of investor, bond guy, small cap guy, big cap guy, niche play guy, day trader, swing trade and finally, what I am now: “don’t give a fuck ’cause I am right guy.”

Everyone out there, trying to bank some coin in the markets, will endure staggering losses. It’s part of the game. However, with experience you can skirt dumb rookie mistakes, most likely executed by most of you retards— day in and day out.

My “Godliness” came to me, in increments, after the crash of 2000. Naturally, I made obscene coin in 98-2000; but who didn’t? However, only after wiping out my personal brokerage account, within a few quick weeks in 2000, did I learn the value of “Trading with the Gods.”

See, “The Gods” don’t give a shit about bull markets or bear. It’s important to understand your risk threshold and NEVER approach it. All of my big mistakes came when I was pressured to cover a short or sell out a long, due to margin issues. During the years of 2001-2003, I pigeon holed myself, trading only on a cash basis, fucking around with big dividend stocks and distressed debt. An experience of solitude, to say the least. But it gave me time to see things in slow motion, instead of the knee jerk action of idiot high beta stocks.

If you think stocks are stupid, you should see the bullshit that takes place in junk bonds. But that’s a whole new topic.

Before I execute a trade, my mind is already set on where that stock should be, within 1 day, 1 week, 1 month or even 6 months time. And, I always have a general thesis to trade around. For example, in 2006 I loved oil/gas. In 2007 I was a big restaurant/beverage fan. In 2008 I was all about shorting the shit out of China and banks. And in 2009 I am all about shorting commercial Re and oil.

The market runs in cycles and it is important to identify what cycle we are in, prior to setting a thesis.

After that, you need to understand that even though you feel a stock like BAC should go to zero within 6 months, it can triple in two, before going lower. NEVER put yourself in a situation that will force you out of a position, because “the pain is too great.” Whatever plan you have in your little head will likely be tested, via egregious losses. Be prepared for losses.

Fuck all of the greed. Greed is good, but it bankrupts more people than a drunken CDO manager at a Bear Sterns annual BBQ.

I view investing like driving on a road. I know where my destination is, short VNO, BXP, ESS, KIM etc. However, on the way, I might drive off road for a quick snack (scalp trades) or take a nap (cash). Nonetheless, at the end of the day, I know where I am going; and I know that I will be right.

Hence, “Trading with the Gods.”

UPDATE: Santelli still on fire.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlcJOukNsAM&feature=subscription 450 300]

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Geithner’s House Found

Big fucking house for a little fucking man.

UPDATE: Denninger

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmKHUUkhkzM&feature=subscription 450 300]

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DANGER: Stay Away

I warned you to sell out of the refiners and the oils. You chose to ignore me.

I warned you that commercial Re was due to get lambasted. You bought a building.

I warned you that WFC was fortune cookie. You opened up a new checking account.

I warned you against betting with the criminals at XOM. You drank Texas Tea.

Now, I am warning you to stay away, for this market is impossible to game. You can mess around with gold, oil, currencies and stocks until your head falls off. At the end of the day, the game is rigged.

I am working on a new investment thesis, which will be unveiled on Monday, exclusively on The PPT, which, incidentally, will launch on Monday. What a coincidence! It has a lot of do with gloom and doom and nothing to do with hanging out with men who wear 10 gallon hats.

At the end of the day, “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he is saddled with cash. For the day, I powered ahead, led by gain in my oil shorts. Frankly, today was my best day in more than a week, mainly due to my previous neutral stance.

I am sick of the rumor milling at CNBC and Realmoney.com.

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Rumors Will Murder You

The clowns are scurrying about, offering all sorts of rumors, from capital injections at BAC to outright nationalization for C. Then we have the asshole, Geithner, telling people there will be more details of his “plan” revealed for us plebs, early next week.

Look, I can’t stop you from grabbing hold of that one arm bandit. All I know is, this market is not safe, on the long or short side. We are too oversold, yet on the precipice of economic collapse.

“The Fly” always has an opinion on where to place money. However, for once, I am going to sit this fucker out, grab some popcorn, and watch the rats run around on the sinking ship.

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Collateral Damage

We all know the danger spots: C, BAC, WFC, USB, STI, FITB, ZION, GE, HIG and KEY, just to name a few. But, who will be left holding the bag? Lots of managers are long these names, U.S. financial bellwethers, and will now begin to suffer the ramifications of poor risk management practices. The whole system is intertwined. A failure of the banks above will cause a domino effect that will take down money management firms, other banks large and small, insurers, annuity players and legendary investors.

Below is rough sketch look at the firms with the most exposure to the companies listed above:

C: STT, BCS, Capital World Investors,  Fidelity, Vanguard

WFC: Berkshire Hathaway, STT, BCS, Fidelity, Canguard

BAC: STT, BCS, Vanguard, Temasek Holdings, Fidelity

USB: STT, BCS, Berkshire Hathaway, Capital World Investors, Marisco

STI: Capital World Investors, STT, BCS, Vanguard, UBS

FITB: AXA, Lord Abbett, UBS, STT, BCS

ZION: BCS, STT, WFC, Argyll Research, Vanguard

KEY: Fidelity, STT, BCS, Hotchkis, TROW

HIG: STT, AXA, Capital Growth, NWQ, BCS

GE: BCS, STT, Vanguard, Capital World Investors, BK

It appears the ungodly  folks at STT have a lot of worrying to do over the weekend.

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