18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,793 Blog Posts

The Fed Can’t Help

If you think the credit crisis is bad now, wait and see how it looks when unemployment is at 5.5%.

I know many of you, stubbornly, believe the Fed will somehow waive its magic money stick and everything will be alright.


It is natural for the economy to go into recession, following years of uninterrupted growth. Using band aid solutions to keep the party going will only exacerbate problems in the future.

While it’s true, I believe the Fed should cut rates aggressively, down to 3% or lower; it won’t help the economy or the stock market until 2009.

Plus, by then, we will have a newly elected President, who may have an interest in fucking Wall Streeters.

Look you, the signs are everywhere. Just look at RUTH. Even fat fuckers are staying home, opting not to clog their arteries in public.

The Fed can’t help the fat guy, who will be paying $4 a gallon for gasoline by April, pay for $200 dinners at RUTH or even $20 snacks at WEN.

What to do now?

Position for recession. However, understand, along the way, there will be many false rallies—particularly when the Fed cuts rates.

Fade those spikes.

Right now, [[FXP]] is cheap, mainly due to a gap up in the shares of PTR. Should PTR weaken throughout the day, FXP will print $82, for shizzle.

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Fly Buy: FXP

I bought 1,000 [[FXP]] @ $80.20.

Disclaimer: If you buy FXP because of this post, stupid deers will get in the way of your speeding car. And, you may lose money.

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Japanese Stocks On Their Way to Zero, in Early Trade

The NIKKEI is down about 4%, give or take. Frankly, those wii making losers deserve it, and more.

In other news, Chinese stocks are up, as secret shadow governments conspire to drive prices up until the Olympics. As you know, the Olympics will bring in zillions upon zillions of worthless dollars into China’s burgeoning communist economy.

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Making a Bet

I’m making a market call; I say we go lower.

Too much froth, while the economy is weakening. Normally, as you know, “The Fly” is a drunken bull, buying all sorts of momentum names, while cursing the Mothers of those who sell short.

However, it’s stupid to ignore the agony in retail, construction, auto’s and semiconductors.

Without high commodity prices and a weak dollar, most of the big industrial names would be sucking wind too.

So, during the month of January, I am committed to selling every spike, while reupping my short positions. Furthermore, with 10-k’s coming due, I am sure the big audit firms, scared of litigation, will insist the brokers and banks be as transparent as could be.

This will result in more “shoes to drop.”

Regarding [[MVIS]]–

I will sell some of my position into the CES hype. I sense there will ample opportunity to revisit the name, during the course of 2008.

Top pick: [[FXP]]

NOTE: Check the spike in [[SRS]] today.

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Fly Buy: FXP

I bought 6,000 [[FXP]] @ $79.50.

Disclaimer: If you buy FXP because of this post, the next time you are driving on the freeway, insane truckers will harass you. And, you may lose money.

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Microvision Eviscerating the Sellers

Only the stock Gods know how frustrated “The Fly” is with [[MVIS]].

I’ve been patiently holding a ridiculous amount of stock, while holding in countless others, waiting for the story to pan out.

For more than a year, I’ve been told: “MVIS is going to be double digits. They will change the way people use their handheld devices.” Yet, I sit here looking at my stupid monitor, and the stock is mid 4’s.

For the most part, the CFO of MVIS, Jeff Wilson, torpedoed the investor confidence CEO Alex Tokman had rebuilt for more than a year—by selling a bullshit 40,000 shares @ $4.70.

In hindsight, selling at $4.70 was a good idea.

Fuck you very much Jeff Wilson.

Now what?

Well, this is the year the proverbial ball starts rolling for the company. If everything stays on track, the company should start selling Picop products during Christmas of ’08. If so, there is no way the stock remains in the 4’s.

Conservatively, using the numbers projected by several analysts, the stock should be trading, at a minimum, $8—without a major ramp. Once MVIS gets their paws into [[MOT]] or Samsung cellphones, I suspect the stock will trade north of $15.

However, keep in mind, all of this depends on the company (through proxy) being able to mass produce green lasers, which could be very expensive. That’s the kicker.

Before I make any big decisions, I want to see the progress of their R&D, displayed at CES. I know a few people who will be inside the MVIS presentation. I’ll be sure to pass along some of their notes.

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Ag Stocks Feeding the Bulls

Thanks to the knockout numbers from [[MON]], the agriculture sector is on fire, with gains in [[AGU]], [[VMI]], [[AG]], [[SYT]], [[TNH]], [[POT]], [[LNN]], [[ARTW]], [[CNH]], [[CF]] and my favorite ag etf [[MOO]].

Basically, the ag sector, along with gold/silver, oil and solar, has become the de facto momentum sector or safe haven for the bulls.

Unfortunately, many in the sector have run up too much and have poor risk/reward ratios, with the exception of VMI.

Compared to its chief rival, LNN, VMI is at least 20% cheap. I’d buy the stock with both hands, under $92.

Also, CF looks like it may run to $130+, based upon fundamentals of course.

As you know, using technical analysis is an excellent way to pretend to be smart, with regards to investments.

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