Will you shut the fuck up already? Don’t tell me how to operate my award winning, 1st tier financial website. Psychologically, today was one of those “OMG, WTF am I gonna do days,” as the bottom dropped out of banks, cre and everything in between.
As for me, aside from adding to my FAZ/SRS positions this morning, I did nothing. I could have added to current longs, but most of them are small cap losers. I do not like buying into sharp declines, since painful down markets beget more pain. However, I will say, we will trade higher tomorrow.
If you shorted stock into the bell, you are gambling 100%. Let’s face it, the time to get short was Friday, not following a 20%+ dip in [[BAC]]. I just can’t get myself to sell short into such a mess.
All of the past winners were down double digits today. There is an old adage that applies: “the market takes the stairs up, but the elevator down.”
At the moment, major market tells can be found in the price action in [[UUP]], [[FXY]], [[TLT]] and [[USO]]. If you can figure out the correlation then you are not as stupid as all of your friends and family say you are.
Anyway, I gave back a good 6-7% today, lowering my ytd gains to around 18%. As difficult as this market is, I am confident, without any doubts, by the end of the year you will bear witness to Senor Tropicana knocking the cover off the ball, yet again. He always does and he always wins.
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Today was fucked. Damned if you do; damned if you don’t.
Elevator down… More like elevator shaft down!
shorting into the bell today is fucking gambling. Look I had names down 10-15% across the board while FAZ was up 30% from where I bought on Friday. I also had short winners such as HME and GS imploding. I did close out FAZ into the bell because its stupid to hold these things overnight. Look at the end of the day today, FAZ gained 5% into the close. That’s manipulation that is bigger than I and I will take my gains where I can get them. Additionally turnaround Tuesday will march us higher where I will fade the rally again. All in all I can’t complain about today’s PnL although I did suffer a 2% hit it was refreshing watching FAZ cut nuts to my favor.
S&P will go into consolidation mode and be range-bound for a little while. You’ll see some individual strength here and there, but don’t expect a huge one-way directional move in the market as a whole.
“If you shorted stock into the bell, you are gambling 100%. Let’s face it, the time to get short was Friday, not following a 20%+ dip in BAC (PPT Rec: Sell).”
^^ True that ^^
regarding TLT, the move in TLT today is saying “HAY GUISE, PEOPLE ARE GETTING SCARED”. A pop above 106 means the newspapers will be talking within a week about end-times and “RECESSION FOREVAR” again.
also, it’s interesting how VIX closed around the 40 ceiling.
we’re at a really critical point here.
(also I haven’t paid much attention to crude lately, but the move today is fairly interesting, damn!)
Good posts today Master Fly,
Thanks
As much chagrin as it caused me to watch The Fly start playing the long side, I will welcome back Horatio Clawhammer to the bull-slaughter fest with open arms.
As you say, Friday was the day, and yes I did short GOOG and GS on that day, and I shorted IYR halfway through today.
I’m dumb, but even I can divide a commodity index by the long bond. UUP, USO, TLT, etc. all say “Deflation Trade.”
well, at least the trend is easy to play right now. it’s like taking candy from a baby right now.
The top 3 big movers are Banking, Housing and oil related.
all the other industries, even today are not as effected.
lets face it, on good days you can go long Banks, Housing and make a killing (10 to 20% in a day) and on down days you can short Banks and Housing and make 10- 20% in a day.
all the other industries just meeander along. like take today, all the banks got their nuts removed, down 10 to 30% just today, but things like Best Buy (-2.28%) Merck (-1.98%) Costco (-3.12%) didn’t drop very much.
and throughout 2008 and 2009, the names to play back and forth and back and forth and back and forth are Banks, Housing and Oil related. all the rest are moving slowly.
In fact one could have made a killing or lost their ass just playing FAZ, FAS DUG and SRS everyday for the the last 18 months and not play any other names. (just be on the right side)
carry on.
What about the new kids on the block – VXX VXZ? What do they tell?
I’ll bite.
TLT: People are getting scared…
USO: …because that much-vaunted economic recovery ain’t happening…
UUP: …So, for every USD we buy in the form of Treasuries, we’ll sell it right back in exchange for some…
FXY: …JPY, because even though Japan’s economy is fucked, it’s not *necessarily* as fucked as those of Europe or North America.
OK, I was grasping at straws on that last one. Problem I have with that last bit of the thesis is that if Japan’s exports are to recover, wouldn’t they be inclined to devalue the Yen?
On the other hand, Japan is still a net creditor and it didn’t completely dismantle their manufacturing base, both of which will serve them well if the debt-deflation depression scenario continues to unfold as it has for the past six months.
So how about FXY: “Because Japan’s so fucked that its fuckedness has more than been priced into the Yen, and because all they’ll have to do is be not-quite-as-fucked-as-they-look for the Yen to be a decent hedge against the Dollar or Euro. When the dust finally settles, those Yen’ll be worth something.”
Awright, have at it.
Banks are still totally fucked – stress test results show
From Zero Hedge:
The Turner Radio Network has obtained “stress test” results for the top 19 Banks in the USA.
The stress tests were conducted to determine how well, if at all, the top 19 banks in the USA could withstand further or future economic hardship.
When the tests were completed, regulators within the Treasury and inside the Federal Reserve began bickering with each other as to whether or not the test results should be made public. That bickering continues to this very day as evidenced by this “main stream media” report.
The Turner Radio Network has obtained the stress test results. They are very bad. The most salient points from the stress tests appear below.
1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.
2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.
3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.
4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.
5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular – JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank – taking especially large risks.
6) Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!
7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!
The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported. The FDIC`s “Problem List” of troubled banks includes 252 institutions with assets of $159 billion. 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.
Put bluntly, the entire US Banking System is in complete and total collapse.
More details as they become available. . . . . .
Tonight’s OEW Update:
“Todays sharp selloff clearly confirms the diagonal triangle that formed for Intermedate wave C, ending Major wave A. The market should now be in Major wave B of the uptrending Primary wave B. Major wave B should take the form of an abc with Intermediate waves. The typical historical retracement for this type of wave pattern suggests a decline between 50.0% and 61.8% of Major wave A. This suggests support at SPX 771 (50%) and SPX 747 (61.8%). There are three support levels that were formed during the Major wave A rally: SPX 768, 750 and 742. Also we have an OEW pivot at 768 and then 734. As a result, the downside target should be around the SPX 768 pivot.”
This is a follow up to yesterdays timely post:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2009/04/18/sucker-saturday/#comment-107507
No way they release a report like that. Expect the real bullshit report to show most banks are fine and watch devildogs balls and FAZ position get blown up.
The Equalizer: japanese yen is used for carry trades, that’s it’s only real purpose as a currency (ok hyperbole, but really, it’s carry-trade fun). when JPY weakens, it means more money sloshing around and a lot of that cash gets parked in equities, bidding up the prices of stocks. conversely, when JPY strengthens, carry trade dies and stocks go down. this is why the overnight moves in JPY should be one of the main indicators you look at when you wake up.
now, you could say that i’m mixing up cause and effect, that because of the weakening of the economy makes people more conservative, but because a lot of this money is leverage, it’s a lot more murky and you might as well just watch the movement as a gauge of capital flows in/out of equities rather than the underlying reasons (which you would need to look at other indicators like the actual debt markets and commodities).
Oh yeah? But we gots Obama and Geithner and Bernanke ……..and Barnie Frank and Chrissie Dodd……we gots duh problem solved, no?
still long TLT from 2 weeks ago. Going much higher.
Thanks Fly.
I see the hatchet coming for financials as any stress-test results (even if perfectly-sauteed, sugar-coated, & presented with a seasoned cognac by an Asian stewardess with honey-suckle lips & a certain morally casual attitude) meet with heightened scrutiny & don’t match up with the facts we already know (swiss cheese balance sheets & record delinquencies) leaving meager prospects for long-term profitability for the bigger banks…
Holding FAZ overnight is scarier than TheFly with a satchel charge launcher installed on his vintage limo, but sometimes you just gotta do what you gotta do…
On -6% days, The Fly is reduced to launching USB missles.
that Turner story is false. see here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treasury-does-not-yet-have-rb-14971196.html
Victory really does smell sweet!
I have stayed away from the financials/financial ETF’s because the government seems to love screwing up the trade, but people really have to understand how dire the situation is at regional commercial banks…and also the local/community type ones as well.
These banks all make their money almost completely from making residential mortgage loans or (mainly) commercial loans. Most of them are heavily concentrated in a handful of states, although right now that doesn’t make much difference since everybody is fucked (except here in Michigan where we’re double fucked).
So, when the economy goes to shit, as it is doing, all of these middle market and small businesses that had 3-4-5 years of upward revenue and profit growth, are all of a sudden losing money like there is no tomorrow, and generally speaking management doesn’t see it until it’s too late, and there is no capital to come in and save it.
I will bet you that almost every bank that is regional or smaller is sitting on billions of shitty loans that it will not admit are as bad as they say they are. Plus, many banks review quarterly or only annually, which means that reviews are still in process and might not be done until June 30! So companies can be on their way towards shutting down and the banks don’t even realize it yet.
The reason it’s more quiet is because the banks have no choice. They can’t call in everybody’s loans at once. Who are they going to sell the collateral to? It’s a circular problem, which has actually propped things up further. In theory, if they hang on long enough it could turn around, however at the first sign of light, the banks will liquidate any company that is doing well…so really no matter what happens we’re fucked.
Any questions, class?
RosenRush said:
“I will bet you that almost every bank that is regional or smaller is sitting on billions of shitty loans that it will not admit are as bad as they say they are.”
********************************************
You are as full of shit as a Christmas turkey.
In the first place, those banks BUNDLED AND SOLD those loans.
In the second place, say they still have 100 loans of $200K each, 5% of which are not paying.
SO THE FUCK WHAT? 95 loans are STILL paying and are backed by the homes. Those people will NOT be moving out – they will keep paying.
And the five that don’t pay? The have a HOUSE worth $150K as backing – so the bank is out in theory $250,000 on the total 100-loan portfolio of $20 million dollars. One and a fuckin’quarter
percent. The bundle of mortgages is worth 98.75%
of its face value!
And questions, DUMBASS?
Most of you are driving me nuts. This will do that; that will do this because I said so; WTF learn to read the Markets flow of capital ETC. Not the printed word of people lost in space. The FLY knows how to read the market he is a big SANDBAGGER !
The Fly … just another bozo with a blog.
Based on the Fly’s recommendations of Friday and Thursday, which I had the foresight of creating portfolios on to track the so called “master”‘s stock picks
CROX ASX ODP ALU JDSU etal DOWN 9.75%
Stocks that “the fly liked” TBSI TDW DRYS et al -9.5%
The FLY’s TOP PICK TBSI -15.85%
SRS and FAZ – god knows 70%? 75%? I cant count as high as the price the FLY purchased these
I see the FLY’s ass turning RED as he makes the idiotic decision to hold what can only be called toxic waste
But worse than the FLy are the fucktards that come here and are actually willing to PAY TWO DOLLARS – $1.99 TOO MUCH – to listen to this self aggrandizing bozo act like he is the second coming of Livermore
Maybe he is … but do we all know what happened to Livermore?
You fat fucks need to stop eating or we will slap a global warming tax on you homos. Fucking disrespecting the environment and shit like that.
http://www.inthenews.co.uk/news/health/keeping-fit-good-the-planet–$1289189.htm
Livermore traded with inside information in the end; he would not last one week today. I am so tired of a manic depressent that could read a tape as a kid and got his ass kicked when he went to NY. He would have shot himself no matter what; he was a manic depressent with no medical help during those times. Have a heart fucker!
Anonymous,
Someday you’ll be able to save up the $2 needed to cast a vote on the PPT. You just keep turning tricks at 1 cent a pop and fattening up that piggy bank.
You could also raise your rates, then you might be able to save the money in less time, but of course, that would wear your booty out.
Either way, Godspeed.
Notice to all shit-tards…90 percent of all piker pukes here…you disgust me with your babble about fucking nothing…please kill yourself and your relatives…STFU..have an investment idea, backed by time and sales or go watch your chubby wife fuck your trust fund neighbor..and realize you are a LOSER…
Cash- It’s a good thing I don’t have a trust fund.
Please don’t tell Ward, but Eddie Haskell’s Dad has a trust fund.
Steve..thanks for the response…she can also fuck the mexican landscaper…and his retarded cousin.
Anon
Go suck on a muffler.
When I sold some of my SRS at $43, you dumb fuckers were giving me shit, saying “you sold at the bottom”
I made back more than 10% last week and all I heard were crickets. The market gets slammed down today, then the idiots are back.
do you notice the pattern?
Look you, I’ve been winning at this game for years. One day does not make a trend, nor does one week. The reason why most of you suck and choose to heckle me is because you are frustrated over your inadequacies as an investor.
I give you guys shit on a broad level. I rarely point out individual failures. If you have something worthwhile to say, be heard in the Peanut Gallery, else keep your cancerous comments to yourselves.
i should have a place in the peanut gallery..a position if you will…otherwise i plot to piss on all the gay civily employed imposters here…may i say in conclusion…its funny how stupid you are…and sad that it goes downhill from here for your pathetic families with large calfs and no athletic ability..you will be the first to die…which is good. weak sucks.
Anon – Why not bash me? I was talking about DRYS all last week. Tell me how bad I am for buying at $5.00.
By the way if you don’t fucking like this site get the fuck out of here. For the past 3.5 years this place has been doing just fucking fine without you cum guzzlers. And that goes for all you faggots. Now put a cock in it or face being banned.