iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,924 Blog Posts

The Quiet Before the Storm

Pun intended, of course.

Aside from Gustav, we have a financial storm brewing in Fannie Mae [[FNM]] , Freddie Mac [[FRE]] and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] . The trillion dollar question is: when will it happen and how will the market react?

Judging by today’s trading, no one really knows.

Since it makes little sense to try to think like an insane Fed or Treasury guy, I believe it is logical to stay away from the financials, at least for a week. Instead, go play with the hurricanes or take a wild stab at some short positions in ‘global growth plays.’ However, my top pick is still short Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] .

Bill Miller is just too dumb to ignore.

It’s just real boring out there. To be honest, I feel like I am wasting my time working today. However, I want to be around when the bomb explodes. Therefore, I must work everyday until it detonates.

With my money, I sold out of my remaining [[FXP]] shares and I covered my entire First Horizon National Corporation [[FHN]] short.

Sometime today, I may up my exposure to energy stocks.

Comments »

‘Hurricane of Death’ is Going to Finish off Florida

Just in case this new ‘Deacon of Death’ is able to muster up some circular activity into the Gulf and knock those stupid oil rigs offline, start getting long [[DIG]] .

Then, if you really want to get fancy, playing the oil/gas lottery, get long Global Industries, Ltd. [[GLBL]] , NGAS Resources, Inc. [[NGAS]] and [[PDO]] .

On the safer side, I like Arena Resources, Inc. [[ARD]] , Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] and Southwestern Energy Company [[SWN]] .

Basically, the market is trying to trick everyone into making bad moves. Mother Market loves to bankrupt imbeciles with online trading accounts. And, even better, she loves to beat money managers to death, usually with their own charting rulers.

As you know, “Plutonium Petey” is still hedged and will stay that way until Wednesday. However, there are some stocks that he likes, such as: Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] and National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] .

As an aside, I think Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] is “homeless man going out on a date cheap.”

Separately, I believe Cramer pumped my Clean Energy Fuels Corp. [[CLNE]] , again. I refuse to sell a share. The shares that I still own are earmarked for long term investing, more than a 1 year hold.

Finally, it is quite odd seeing Fannie Mae [[FNM]] and Freddie Mac [[FRE]] spike like this. It’s almost as if the Government is prepared to enter the company at the equity level. If so, it would mean they (our gov’t) are dumber than anyone else thought, putting shareholders ahead of tax payers. However, it might give the market a short term jolt, until people with brains figure out how gay Paulson is. Then the market will trade down and make the cheese makers look like donut hole punchers.

Comments »

The Global Infrastructure Boom is Over

Trade accordingly.

CRH today forecast a decline in full-year pretax profit similar to the 10 percent drop recorded in the first half. The company said last month it will fail to post a 16th consecutive year of profit growth in 2008 as banks curb lending, stifling demand for homes in Britain and the U.S., where the company derives more than 40 percent of its revenue.

Add CRH PLC (ADR) [[CRH]] to your infrastructure short list, which includes: Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] , Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. [[MLM]] , Texas Industries, Inc. [[TXI]] , Eagle Materials, Inc. [[EXP]] , Foster Wheeler Ltd. [[FWLT]] , Fluor Corporation (NEW) [[FLR]] , ABB Ltd (ADR) [[ABB]] , Terex Corporation [[TEX]] and Caterpillar Inc. [[CAT]]

UPDATE: Some love for Krull. Go check 4:40 for Godly jargon.

[youtube:http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=aZ7bD5LZJeM 450 300]

Comments »

Fly’s Blood Test Update

Stuff like this only happens to me. It is the only way I am able to bank so much coin in the market: egregious things must happen to me in real life, effectively balancing out the ying to my yang.

The blood work, that almost killed me, must be done again, due to “an inadequate barrier between the red cells and serum, Optimum barrier formation requires inversion of the barrier tube 5 times immediately after blood is drawn. Clotting in a vertical position for 30 minutes. Centrifugation for 15 minutes.”

In other words, these morons who nearly merc’d me with their needles likely threw my tube of blood on their desk for an hour, while they ordered chinese food or something.

Over my dead body, will I take another blood test.

Developing…

Comments »

A Losers Tape

Up 200—down 200.

It’s nearly impossible to win when the market is jerking you around like that. Look at today’s oil trade. Oil was up, yet oil stocks fell through the floor boards.

On Friday, it appeared the worst was over. Everyone was back to doing lines of blow, while planning their trips to strip clubs. Then, after an egregious weekend, everyone remembered the end of times was upon us, effectively selling stocks for dear life and sanity.

With my money, I am still frozen, masterfully hedged both long and short. While it’s true, I am taking brass knuckled jabs to the teeth, being long Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] , [[DIG]] , [[RKH]] and [[UYG]] . It’s also true that my short positions in Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] , First Horizon National Corporation [[FHN]] , Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] and Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] are bountiful.

And, let’s not forget, I am still long [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] , [[REW]] and [[TWM]] .

Basically, I believe the market will get boot stomped, in a very violent way, during the months of September and October. Stocks like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. [[MER]] and Citigroup Inc. [[C]] will nose dive, effectively mugging people like Bill Miller and the Fast Money crew.

The good news: the Godly folks at iBC are diligently working on incredibly tasteful stock ranking software. It is very complex and has taken months to develop. My guess, it might be ready for launch, over the next month or two.

More on this later.

Right here, it makes sense to bet against infrastructure stocks: VMC, Texas Industries, Inc. [[TXI]] , Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. [[MLM]] , Foster Wheeler Ltd. [[FWLT]] , Fluor Corporation (NEW) [[FLR]] , ABB Ltd (ADR) [[ABB]] and Eagle Materials, Inc. [[EXP]] . And, the casino operators are so subprime, it’s not even funny. There, I like bets against Las Vegas Sands Corp. [[LVS]] , MGM MIRAGE [[MGM]] and Boyd Gaming Corporation [[BYD]] .

Finally, with the vix spiking hard today, I would not be surprised to see the market rally tomorrow.

Just remember, when in doubt, unable to discern what makes sense, bet against Bill Miller and his retarded asset management division, via short LM.

UPDATE:

[youtube:http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=712kRqri2No 450 300]

Hat tip: Denninger

Comments »

Nothing Matters

No one cares what Dick Bove, Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke or Ducati have to say (note the “bell curve analogy”).

The market ignores the scurrilous rants of Cramer and grotesque recommendations of Larry Kudlow.

They spit on the machinations of “The Commodity King,” Dennis Gartman, while farting in the face of Warren Buffett.

Every time Abbey Joseph Cohen speaks, her words are ignored, as if she was a red nosed clown.

Analysts from around the globe scream louder and louder, hoping for someone, anyone, to listen to them and buy a little stock. Yet, every time they (the people) listen, they are assailed and flogged with heavy capital losses.

For years, the analysts have been wrong. As a matter of fact, they are always wrong—yet Wall Street still listens to their opinions— as if they meant something.

They (the analysts) are marched onto the sets of CNBC and Bloomberg, wearing their finest cotton and shiniest shoes. Their brains are picked and pried, as if they had the cure for cancer, when in fact their logic is nothing more than vacuous balderdash.

For years, the CEO’s of our banks have misappropriated bank deposits, leading to ghastly and barnyardesque losses, all the while our regulators focused in on naked short sellers or low end stock peddlers.

See, we have a problem and no one cares. All we get are band aid solutions, with sophisms from our leaders.

In summary, the problem is not bottom up, but top down. Nothing will change, until we start listening to the people who care (Ron Paul and men like him).

Top pick: short Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]]

Comments »

Something Fishy is Cooking in Fishtown

My “secret win” in Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] has suddenly morphed into a not-so-secret loss. I deserve it and more. After all, what was I thinking?

The Government cheese makers are busy. The smoke stacks are active and newly minted cheese is ready to be delivered. I can almost smell it.

With that in mind, I have opted to hold onto my hedges, until Wednesday. Don’t ask why.

Essentially, I am flat again, with losses in [[RKH]] , [[UYG]] and gains in [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] .

On the plus side, my bet against Bill Miller and his small brain is going swell, with Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] feeling the hot blade this morning. And, Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] is down a buck. I’m short that too.

Aside from my LEH loss, I am just giving money away in my oil plays, especially [[DIG]] .

All in all, I am just hanging around, waiting for a nuke to detonate or something. Sometime today, I might try to short more Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] or not.

I may just hang around, throwing water at CNBC, every time they piss me off.

Comments »

The Important Matter of Mountain Vacations, part II

As most of you know, “The Fly” had a most disturbing mountain vacation last summer. Well, I’ve done it again.

It all started when the Mrs. wanted to venture off to some water park resort area, so that our three kids could go on slides and flimsy rafts. Much to my chagrin, this trip was coordinated with one of the neighboring families.

The Fathers name is Dave. Dave is a decent guy with a rather subdued demeanor. However, one thing that stands out is his egregious tan. See, Dave is jewish; but he looks African-American—due to his obsession with celestial fireballs.

With zero experience driving up to this “resort,” coupled with hating my navigation system, I decided to trail Dave, all the way there.

Big mistake.

Unbeknownst to me, aside from his addiction to harmful rays and cigarettes, Dave thinks he’s a race car driver too. With 4 kids in his car, Dave felt it was necessary to, at all times, double the allowable speed limit. On several occasions, he had to slow down to a paltry 80mph, so that I could catch up. He was booking 90mph down winding mountain curves, just so that he could make it to the poolside extra early.

After my nightmarish drive, we took our seats near one of the pools and began to apply sunscreen to the kids.

Being the tough guy that I am, when Mrs. Fly asked me if I wanted any (sunscreen), I said: “nah, I’m okay.” I even took time out of my day to point a finger (or two) at men with sunscreen all over their faces, calling them “bird sh*t bathers,” while chuckling (I never laugh).

Anyway, my older son made sure his Dad (me) went on all the insane rides. We waited on long lines, in order to slide down some tunnels, going like 300mph, depositing us into murky pools.

On one slide, I thought it made sense to have my younger kids “go it alone.” To make a long story short, on one of the mat slides, my youngest son dislodged from the mat. Seeing this occur, anxiously, I waited for him at the end of the tunnel, preparing to catch him. Much to my chagrin, he was traveling at the speed of sound by the time he made it to the end, effectively knocking me under water (head first backwards)—knocking both of my water shoes off. Thinking fast, with one arm, I held him up by his life jacket, while I began the process of drowning in some dishonorable pool. Quickly, I let go of him, so that I could catch my footing and take him out of the water. Mind you, all of this occurred in front of a teenage lifeguard, who was laughing at my plight, as she applied sun tanning lotion to her arms.

Following that, we went on a variety of long lines, just for some cheap 10 second thrills, most of which were of no amusement to me.

By 4pm, I started to feel very hot. The altitude was high and the sun was robust. Having an Irish complexion was of no help to “The Fly,” as the devil’s son beat down on his Godly flesh. Going back to my lounge chair, I saw Dave taking in rays like a solar panel. That man makes Angelo Mozilo look like a pale nordic or an albino—no kidding.

Suddenly, he made an offhand remark to me: “boy are you going to feel it tomorrow.”

“Huh,” I shot back.

I scurried back to the unpleasant restroom to get a glance at the mirror. Upon reflection, I knew it was too late.

I was burnt to a cinder.

Quickly, I asked Mrs. Fly for some of that “cowardly sunscreen.” She obliged. However, this time, she was rather obnoxious about the whole ordeal—with sort of an “I told you so” tone to her voice.

Unfortunately, I was “forced” to remain in that sun infested hellhole, for another 3 hours. The sunscreen did very little to help alleviate the constant drubbing that fireball appropriated to my face, back, legs and arms.

By the end of that day, the sun had flexed its muscle on Senor Tropicana and reduced his agility to nil, who’s movements resembled those of old people in wheeled chairs or morons from the 80’s “doing the robot.”

After that, I followed Mr. Bronze aka Dave, all the way back home—who found it necessary to make numerous lane changes along the way, doing 100mph in the darkest freeways known to man.

Off to apply some aloe vera.

Comments »