[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zykTpmCIekU 450 300]Comments »
This is a ridiculously tough tape.
It’s a tale of two cities, in almost every sector.
Look at retail. One one hand, AZO, JCG, JWN and FOSL look good, while PVH, EBHI, JAKK, GES and CWTR shit the shower.
In summary, it’s a stock pickers market.
Looking at some of my positions, I am tempted to add more RIMM, MVIS, CLX, VMI and FXP (just in case).
In my opinion, GRMN can’t be doing well, while RIMM suffers. Something is wrong.
Either GRMN is too rich or RIMM is too cheap.
I choose the latter.
Finally, my “shotgun to the head pick,” VMI, did well in today’s tape, partly thanks to strength in agriculture related names. With fresh cash, I would buy it, all day, under $85.Comments »
Yet again, I missed out on this sector.
It is melting up to the sun, pun intended.
As you know, the “go to stock” in the solar sector, today, is SOLF. The name of the company is “Solarfun.”
Prior to buying the stock, understand, the founder must be mentally ill, naming his company “Solarfun” & shit.
Here is a small list of solar stocks with mojo:
SOLF, ASTI, ASTIZ, HOKU, CSIQ, CSUN, AKNS, TSL and LDK.
What has a bank done for you lately?
We should all take our money out of those shit holes, and put the money into safety deposit boxes.
The bankers, they’re assholes. I have lots of “friends” in the mortgage business and they’re loan monkeys. In the past, they’d give loans to just about anyone.
Now, all of a sudden, the banks have truck loads of “non-cash write offs.”
Thus far, today’s finance losers include: NFI, RDN, PNSN, DSL, PCAP, WM, FED, MS, BSC, CCRT and BCS.
The winners include: BBX, MXB, FCSX, CORS, IVZ and ACGL.
Despite having open losing trades on ACF, I would avoid the sector, until another “good shoe drops.”
Typically, upon good news, the sector runs for several days. The trend is definitely down. So, trying to time the bottom can be cumbersome.
Just take them off the screen— and wait for some news to get back in.Comments »
Now, I’m aware of the remote possibility that my “calculator brain” could malfunction, effectively gettingthe VMI trade/investment wrong. But, I doubt it.
See, while Woodfucker is busy in his honey hole, “The Fly” is in a fox hole, poking people with his bayonet, searching for money making trades.
It’s December. There is no more time to fuck around.
In the early going of 2007, I was hitting homerun after homerun, then grandslams. However, unfortunately, over the past 6 months, I have given back most of my gains and now stand +9% for the year.
In other words, I need to get this last big trade right. VMI is my largest position. It will work because I say it will.
Worldwide, populations are soaring. For the first time in decades, despite advancements in technology, food supplies are inadequate.
Witness the “pasta protests” in Italy or “tortilla rallies” in Mexico.
According to the International Food Policy Research Institute: “Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it produces for five years now. Stocks of grain – of rice, wheat and maize – are down at levels not seen since the early 80s.”
And, our idiotic politicians think it’s a good idea to burn corn. We are burning food, while food is scarce—always good for a commodity bull run.
The problem is just getting started. Apparently, countries are drawing from their national stocks, which will soon be emptied.
The cupboard will be bare.
Observers estimate, within 12-24 months, growing nations like China and India will go into the open market and bid up the price of food commodities, in order to restock supplies.
Naturally, this will bode poorly for global inflation doves, as the price of pork, beef, chicken and vegetables bust through the fucking ceiling. Nonetheless, there is always hope, right?
To top the shit sundae off, fresh water supplies are dwindling, partly thanks to global warming (think LNN, VMI).
For the record, this all sounds somewhat ominous to me.
Anyway, the way to play the ag boom is via buying commodity related stocks or commodities, of course.
Here’s an extensive list agricultural related equities:
LNN: Irrigation Systems.
VMI: Irrigation Systems.
MON: Seeds and Genomics. Sweet spot for worldwide famine.
SYT: Another Seed fucker.
AG: Farm equipment.
DE: Farm equipment.
ARTW: Farm equipment.
CNH: Farm equipment with a finance arm.
BG: Fertilizers, big food commodity player, edible oil maker.
ADM: Corn fuckers, amongst other commodities.
More risky plays include:
NOEC: Chinese fertilizer.
SEED: Seeds in China.
DRYS: They ship fertilizers, amongst many other things.
GRO: Chinese Seeds and sheep breeding products (no, I am not making this up).
MOO: Agriculture equity ETF, which holds the following positions: Mosaic, Monsanto, Potash, Komatsu, Yara Int’l 5.1%, IOI, Wilmar, CNH Global, Bunge.
DBC: sweet crude oil, heating oil, aluminum, gold, corn and wheat.
JJG: 42.6% soybeans, 35.8% wheat and 21.6% corn.
COW: 67.9% cattle and 32.1% lean hogs.
JJA: 28% soybeans, 23.6% wheat, 14.3% corn, 9.9% soybean oil, cotton 9.3%, coffee 8%, sugar 7%,
RJA: 20% wheat, corn 13.6%, cotton 11.6%, soybeans 8.6%, sugar 5.7%, live cattle 5.7%, coffee 5.7%, rubber 2.9%, lumber 2.9%, lean hogs 2.9%, cocoa, 2.9%, soybean meal 2.15%, canola, 1.92%, orange juice 1.89%, adzuki beans 1.43%, rice 1.43%, oats 1.43%, barley 0.77%, greasy wool 0.72%.
I’m sure there are more “plays,” but this will have to suffice.
In short, the more I research the ag sector, the more I believe in the long term growth prospects. Almost everyone I know is bullish on food commodities, even the bears. Naturally, the trade can become crowded and result in swift poleaxing.
However, the fundamentals demand long term accumulation, with patience being a virtue.
If Jim Rogers is correct, food commodity prices will be 2-3 times what they are now, enabling the above stocks and ETF’s to bank you a little coin.
In other words: Milk the Farmer.Comments »
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uw1bHaUk1CM 450 300]Comments »
Tonight, “The Fly” will begin blacklisting certain people who comment on this “high-end site.” This isn’t yahoo message boards, where assholes reside and discuss nazism and the importance of the “New World Order.”
I’ll have you know, this is NOT a democracy. This site is to be ruled with an iron fist, where only Fly’s ideas are relevant, while Woodshedder’s are just the ramblings of a sour southerner—still mad at being on the short end of the “Civil War stick.”
Today was a perfect consolidation day. Aside from select financials, like ETFC, FMD, COF and DSL, the market was orderly.
The UAPH buyout caused a buying frenzy in other agriculture related plays, likeÂ LNN, MOS, VMI, MON, POT, CNH and BG.
Being long the ag space is for everyone. It’s for the inflation hawks, who believe we are in the midst of a multi-year commodity bull market. And, it’s for the global growth guys, who feel “ag is the way to go,” since China and India are “growing so fast.”
In short, if “The Fly” can teach you anything, it is to pay attention to what is working in bad markets.
God willing, “The Fly” will put together a short list of “shotgun to the head” ag picks—in order to help “simple internet folk” make enough money to pay their grocery bills.
Ironic irony.Comments »
Following a sharp move higher, it’s important to consolidate gains—in order to lure more bearshitters out of their depression camps— into short positions.
For now, I want to make sure Santa Claus is interested in killing bears. Hence, I will wait to put cash to work.
Some stocks, like DE, MOS and SIGM, just don’t give a fuck—making new highs no matter what.
In short, the best advice I can give you now is to go eat a turkey sandwich— with stuffing and cranberry sauce. In other words, Thanksgiving on a bun.Comments »
Look you, I don’t listen to “internet people” suggestions or opinions. Most of you are retarded in the first place, with your 3rd grade writing skills. Don’t come here with recommendations. I will kill all of your goldfish and have your kitchen cabinets removed, mainly for revenge.
Whatever you have going for you, with regards to bullshit brokerage accounts, connections on Wall Street or new rims on your car, it’s meaningless and less than Fly.
Aside from that, RIMM is almost a buy. Like I said on Friday, wait for that fucker to settle in under $105, prior to taking a gambling position.
However, it’s worth noting, I have no sense of urgency to add more RIMM, considering my low basis.
LNN is on fucking fire; VMI is next. I’d bet my eyes on it, if I didn’t lose them in the last bet.
Chinese related stocks are getting kicked in the noodles. With my money, I prefer shorting China here, via FXP, than going long.
Credit related names are taking a breather. My fledging ACF position is weak and asshattish. I will give it two more days, then BAM, off with its head.
Finally, there are fucking ground rules here, assholes. The number one rule here is NEVER to fuck with my large positions. Talking shit about MVIS is equal to wearing a blue sweater in an all blood neighborhood. Whatever you think you know, reserve it for people who value low-IQ/scatter brained drivel.Comments »