18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,326 Blog Posts

Losing Coin with Honor and Dignity

I am sitting here, like a true gentleman, losing vast sums of appreciating U.S. dollars, with great poise and grace. I am not panicking or throwing stuff at people down the hall. No, “The Fly” is all about honour [sic] and reason, when it pertains to dealing with setbacks.

Quite frankly, this is the best recession ever. Just today, we have the dollar gaining big time versus the yen, gold crashing through the floor boards and oil shitting the attic. On top of that, [[GOOG]], [[CAT]] and [[HON]] posted kick ass numbers, giving confidence to those who have been loyal to the bull case.

At the same time, [[C]] posted God awful numbers, but its stock is still up huge.

What a shocker.

The commodity bubble is being deflated, which in effect, can fuel a rally in U.S. equities for the next several centuries.

In all seriousness, there is no way I am shorting up here, in the face of a break out in the indices. I’d rather go play with a pinball machine, for the next 10 hours, than try to time a new top in the banks, like some sort of degenerate OTB guy. If that’s the case, I might as well come to work in a wife beater T-shit, cigar in mouth, and drink beer out of an aluminum can, with “impunity.”

In closing, I would like to let my new bear friends know that I hate you and wish a slow painful death for you and all of your pets. Moreover, I believe you are all stupid assholes, who somehow tricked me into disbelieving in Goldilocks (U.S. economy). If I ever find out where you people live or eat, I will dispatch my entire goon squad of Brooklyn jerk-offs to punch the ears off your stupid heads.

Comments »

Fly Responds to a Leech in the Comments Section

The leech wrote:

Guys can I get an honest answer here, no bullshit.

At what price would you really be worried about oil and gas prices? What will crush the consumer? Bull or Bear I would like to know. Thanks!

Fly Response:

No price worries “The Fly.” Actually, like I said before, I hope and pray to God every night, false and real, that oil “super spikes” to $400 per barrel, in order to alleviate traffic in NYC.

“The Fly” looks forward to discussing these matters, and more, in the near future.

Another leech wrote:

At what point does Uncle Ben start defending the dollar?

Fly Response: When oil is at $400 per barrel. Weak dollars make it easy for us to sell our tanks to Egypt.

NOTE: China is down another 2.6% 4.5% in early trade. Is anyone paying attention to this debacle? Anyone?

Back to sharpening my knife.

Comments »

Never Bet Against Cajun

Full disclosure:

I was going to stupidly bet against [[GOOG]] today, until Ragin’ emailed me and told me not to.  Luckily, I heeded his advice. I’m a big believer in momentum and  having a hot hand. Let me tell you, RC is on fucking fire. All of you should bow down to his glory and show him some respect.

For now, the trend remains up, as bad news is good and horrendous news is great.

On the long side, I still like oil plays, like [[RIG]] and [[NOV]].

Looking at [[SKF]], I’m sure there will be a great entry point soon, under $105.

Comments »

Going Long Stupidity

Hell, we all know [[GOOG]], [[C]] and [[BAC]] will post disappointing numbers. Looking at the reaction to the share prices of [[JPM]], [[WFC]] and [[MER]], we might as well just pile the fuck into these burning houses.

Earnings? Who cares?

Just buy these stocks and take a few shots of heroin. Everything will be fine.

Ag stocks up too much?

Fuck you.

Those bastards are going up, since people like to eat and shit.

What else makes no sense?

How about shorting some oil and gold up here? While you’re at it, sell you euros and buy dollars.

Finally, tech is a safe haven. Never let anyone tell you differently. Ever.

Just go long some semiconductors, due to Chinese demand—which will never abate.

Comments »

Recent Fly Moves

I’m in combat mode here, after being poleaxed in a variety of subprime short sales. However, I did book significant profits in some of my individual bear bets.

Here is a quick recap:

Covered all of my [[FED]], [[DSL]] and [[WM]] shorts.

Sold all of my [[VMI]].

Bought more [[SMN]].

Sold short [[POT]], [[MON]] and [[DECK]].

Long story short, I now have ample cash to be more flexible with my trades. As of yesterday, I was levered up to my eyeballs in downside plays. Don’t misconstrue. I still believe there is significant downside left in the market. I just need to be more cautious with my risk.

Going into the close, I would like to see [[SKF]] trade under $105 (my buy point). Also, I may bet against [[GOOG]]. Those fuckers are due to miss, and miss big.

Finally, with commodities running like mad, and the dollar in the shitbox, [[SLV]] and [[DGP]] look great here.

Comments »

Anyone Want to Talk About China?


After all, the Chinese stock market is down 45% from the highs, yet not a peep. When the exchange was ripping higher, like Nasdaq 1999-2000, it was the talk of the town. That bow tie fucker, Jim Rogers, was saying it could go to 10,000. All of the pundits were predicting it would surpass the Dow; yet here we are at 3,000 and change.

Odd, no?

Like the Nasdaq of 2000-2002, I believe the Shanghai bubble has popped. But, for some reason, no one wants to talk about the ramifications. How about the negative wealth effect that is coupled with steep market declines? I’m sure many speculators have been wiped out, just like all of the dot com buyers in 2000.

I believe, people are in denial when it comes to China’s problems, because they (China) have been ordained as the “new great power” of the 21st century.

As you know by now, without the great demand for resources and goods from China, the “global growth story” would be derailed and its train sent off a cliff into a ravine.

All I’m asking is this:

Is the mind numbing decline in the Shanghai telling us something? Or, should we just ignore it and buy Chinese stocks because the Olympics is coming?

No doubt, most of you paper pushers will opt for the latter.

Comments »

Listen to Nokia or Not

It is hard being a bear. Frankly, “The Fly” is not accustomed to betting on world destruction or “wishing” for doom to strike those who bet against him. However, his superior “calculator brain” tells him “fuck the world, it’s going lower.”

Take a look at [[NOK]], shall we?

How do you want to spin that bad news?

Let me guess:

NOK blows. [[RIMM]] rocks.

Fair enough. That makes sense.

How about the [[MER]] disappointment? Spin that.

Hang on, I’ll do it for you:

It’s a kitchen sink quarter. Soon, they will be writing up those toxic securities, leading to 10’s of billions in balance sheet gains.

Thus, the market should rip higher, again.

Also, a splendid argument.

How about the fact that MER posted a larger writedown on their Alt-a paper (good credit mortgages) than subprime? Does that concern you?

Answer: Fuck no. Just buy a Chinese solar burrito stock and do a few lines of coke.

Anyway, I’m a bit busy here today, dealing with all sorts of tedious issues of business. In the meantime, be sure to bottom dip some bank stocks down here, since the worst is now behind us.

In all seriousness, I will be raising cash today, covering my shorts in [[FED]], [[DSL]] and [[WM]]. With the proceeds, I will redouble my efforts in loser positions.

More on this later.

UPDATE: Mr. Mortgage explains the Alt-A issue:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeBSWI9sF8 450 300]

Comments »