18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,016 Blog Posts

Rumors Will Murder You

The clowns are scurrying about, offering all sorts of rumors, from capital injections at BAC to outright nationalization for C. Then we have the asshole, Geithner, telling people there will be more details of his “plan” revealed for us plebs, early next week.

Look, I can’t stop you from grabbing hold of that one arm bandit. All I know is, this market is not safe, on the long or short side. We are too oversold, yet on the precipice of economic collapse.

“The Fly” always has an opinion on where to place money. However, for once, I am going to sit this fucker out, grab some popcorn, and watch the rats run around on the sinking ship.

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Collateral Damage

We all know the danger spots: C, BAC, WFC, USB, STI, FITB, ZION, GE, HIG and KEY, just to name a few. But, who will be left holding the bag? Lots of managers are long these names, U.S. financial bellwethers, and will now begin to suffer the ramifications of poor risk management practices. The whole system is intertwined. A failure of the banks above will cause a domino effect that will take down money management firms, other banks large and small, insurers, annuity players and legendary investors.

Below is rough sketch look at the firms with the most exposure to the companies listed above:

C: STT, BCS, Capital World Investors,  Fidelity, Vanguard

WFC: Berkshire Hathaway, STT, BCS, Fidelity, Canguard

BAC: STT, BCS, Vanguard, Temasek Holdings, Fidelity

USB: STT, BCS, Berkshire Hathaway, Capital World Investors, Marisco

STI: Capital World Investors, STT, BCS, Vanguard, UBS

FITB: AXA, Lord Abbett, UBS, STT, BCS

ZION: BCS, STT, WFC, Argyll Research, Vanguard

KEY: Fidelity, STT, BCS, Hotchkis, TROW

HIG: STT, AXA, Capital Growth, NWQ, BCS

GE: BCS, STT, Vanguard, Capital World Investors, BK

It appears the ungodly  folks at STT have a lot of worrying to do over the weekend.

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Fuck Oil!

No, at some point GE is not a buy. At some point GE catches a credit downgrade and shits down Immelt’s neck.

I just sold out of my entire BUCY position, into strength. It is not the price I was looking for, but fuck it.

MCO is catching liquid swords to the cranium, as investors realize that there is no point in having credit agencies that do not function properly. I say “MCO to zero.” Why the fuck not?

As for oil:

Oh boy. You oil barrel loving motherfuckers are about to get bowled on by men levitating on space aged hoverboards, who gingerly sip Monster Energy Soda, while kicking old men into traffic. There is no reason to be long oil stocks here. For the most part, most of the oil stocks that you see on your little bullshit screen will get cut in half again or file for bankruptcy protection.

I repeat: You do not walk away from a 70% decline in crude unscathed. The executives at XOM are purposely manipulating their share price, through buybacks. What responsible manager buys $15 billion of his own stock, inside of 2 quarters, all the while the core commodity behind his business drops by 70%?

Look, we all see what’s happening here, right? Are we clear? For once, I am trying to genuinely help you help yourself. There is no getting out of this mess. I am pissed the fuck off, just thinking about how my kids will make a living in 10 years. I am pissed off that our leaders are unable to instill confidence in the markets.

I gave the long side a try. I fucking bought a bunch of shit a few weeks ago, but quickly sold most of them out, when I sensed a change for the worse was a comin’. Right now, about 10% of my holdings are long, 35% short and 55% cash.

I will not add to shorts. I will not try to bottom fish. Believe me, something is going to happen real soon that will make you cry into your SHAM-WOW rag. With my money, aside from betting against oil (DUG, ERY)and select cre (ESS, MAC, SLG, FRT), I am sitting this crisis out.

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American Fuckery

For all of the shit I talk about “Chinese Fuckery,” I have it all wrong. It’s “American Fuckery” that I must keep a watchful eye on.

Unlike the capitalists in China, here in America, fucking loser scum bags walk around, with hunched backs, asking for handouts—and they get it! Here in America, billion dollar hedge fund managers dedicate their shallow lives, creating elaborate ponzi schemes, instead of creating wealth for others.

Here in America, our politicians are corrupt as the night is black. And, here in America no one gives a fuck.

My apologies to China.


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America is a PIPE Investment

There is a lot of doom and gloom, for a very good reason. America is one being fucking PIPE investment. We are a God damned warrant attached to the debt of the banks. With over $7 trillion in collective debt at the banks, the government is in a lose-lose situation. The bond holders need to be wiped clean.

Fuck Bill Gross and his asshole friends. It’s time for those guys to eat pavement.

We have GE breaking through $10, commercial Re names getting buried and, at the same time, assholes getting long oil/ag.

Listen to me, there are WAREHOUSES full of potash. The producers of potash are purposely manipulating the price upward. Watch, within a year, either the price of potash crashes or they are charged with collusion. Stock like MOS, POT and AGU should trade lower

Aside from America, Europe is fucked too. My favorite way to rape Europe is long DRR.

Basically, you have no right buying stocks here. If you are scared to short, stay on the sideline and get your popcorn ready.

Remember, the market is down here, well below the 200 day moving average, because the economy of the United States is on the precipice of outright collapse.

UPDATE: I bought 2,000 EEV @ $58.55.

Liesman vs Santelli:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiCOb49vVVM 450 300]

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiCOb49vVVM 450 300]

“The Fly” is all about having tea parties, where he throws, mind you, old fucktards into idle bodies of water, while eating rocks.

Fuck this market. You have no business taking a position here. The only sector on fire, aside from gold, are the generic drug stocks, mainly because the government is set to crucify big pharma, no doubt.

Take a look at WPI, TEVA, PRX and MYL—all on fire.

Now, don’t be a douchebag and start buying up here. It’s important to know something: NEVER go all in on a stock that is hitting new highs. If you want to own it, buy 10% now, 10% later and leg into the name, over a period of time.

With that being said, we are in a bear market people. The best plays are short sales. Over the next 6 months, I love my chances being short FRT, ESS, MAC, SLG and KIM. Commercial Re is not a place that you want to be long.

Eventually, stocks with high cash levels will be in my buy zone. And, no, that does not include XOM.

Names like DRIV, NITE, KBR, COGT and SNPS are value plays worth exploring. If AAPL drops another 20 points, I’d consider buying that too.

At the end of the day, the market is broken into little pieces. Don’t try to pick them up.

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Nationalization is a Bitch

Come on, we’re just ostrich trading here, ignoring the fact that C and BAC have slipped down the rabbit hole of nationalization. Frankly, I don’t know how the government intends to rectify the situation. Moreover, I think one has to be out of his mind getting long here, in any size, prior to this looming issue being resolved.

Once again, ag stocks look good, led by gains in MOS, POT and CF. As you know, I like LNN, mainly for two reasons. One: there is a massive short position in the stock. Two: fresh water supplies, worldwide, are still very, very weak. If governments want to preserve water, they need to invest in better irrigation systems, both LNN and VMI provide such a service.

Lots of cross currents in the market today: dollar weak, euro strong, oil strong, gold weak, natty weak. Go figure it out.

With my money, I am still in a holding pattern, mainly in cash, until the important matter of the banks is resolved.

Much to my chagrin, men in green leotards are buying up oil/gas stocks, once again, trying to pick a bottom. When will you fuckers learn, the oil/gas space, as a business, is dead. Margins have been eroded to laughable proportions.

Look, you don’t have to execute a trade every day. What the fuck is wrong with you? Do you have ADD or some shit?

Chill the fuck out and wait for the market to decide: the red pill or the blue?

UPDATE: Santelli on fire!!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEZB4taSEoA 450 300]

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Eastern Europe is Collapsing


[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLiZ0JO7DME&feature=subscription 450 300]

UPDATE: U.S. is bankrupt.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxPcJyypUKc 450 300]

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