Let it be said and let it be known, it is not becoming of you, or I for that matter, to rush art. While we zestfully navigate the upper boundaries of the trading range, particularly in The PPT, it’s important to understand how unreasonable people are. Just because we are OVERBOUGHT, does not mean we will trade lower immediately. As a point in fact, much to my surprise, The PPT is NOT flagging OVERBOUGHT signals for any of the upside ETF’s or the market as a whole. Stubbornly, the percentage of large cap stocks rated “buy” or higher remains under 75%, which effectively leaves room for more upside expansion.
Nevertheless, I have taken it upon myself to do a little pruning up here, in order to raise cash so that I may average down on my VXX position, whenever I deem suitable. On a personal level, I bought a little GDP, in order to participate in the natural gas “squeeze game.” Trust me, it’s coming.
Bottom line: Claim victory via booking gains. If you are interested in playing the reversal to the downside, do so in small increments. Heroes get shot first.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXOy6vb9hIs 616 500]UPDATE: I started an EDZ position into the bell.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Paid to accumulate weakness. In a big way…
Great, great call Scott.
thx. Be very careful carving out your position in VXX. VIX is going to 20. I’ve posted beautiful VIX chart-art in CreateCoin Premium…
And yes–overbought markets can stay overbought for dozens of points.
In fact, we have been maxed out, near-term overbought since mid-day on July 22.
Are you offering me financial advice?
Never you. I don’t have a time machine. Your Army…
As one of your Generals, It is my duty to forward my learned opinion to the troops.
Scott, does it mean you assume options traders use VIX charts to decide what volatility to sell?
There have been changes with the advent of VXX, Most certainly…
“It (VXX) has become so popular as a hedge that it is adding to its own volatility…”
http://ibankcoin.com/scott_bleier/2010/07/22/remember-this-chart-posted-monday-morning-look-closely-we-are-at-24-again/
Back in the game for the thrill of it. Filled 50% of intended position in VXX.
my call remains, NDX 1900 by Wednesday
chances seem good 😉
thanks fly.
Don’t rush – don’t push – let the intermediate top come to you. The Great Fly has spoken.
Would you include ATPG in your Natty Squeeze?
Up nicely today.
Where is devil dog????
flippe-floppe-flye,
You reprobrate, still flogging Jeremy’s PPT?
Where’s my $10 winnings from our bet?
jog on
duc
You will get your 10 when you start behaving like a gentleman
Fly, how is the drill bit and industrial chemicals situation at your household? Any chance you may need to stock up on, say, a few million dollars worth? I know a little company in Texas that could use some sales.
Fly, what do you think of XXV. (inverse VXX).
Will you start buying this thing when PPT is at oversold levels?
There’s an XXV now? eggcellent!
scott…listened to your morning talk show today….good stuff.
Would you make a couple of collection calls for me?
Scott. what’s your percentage returns over the last several years?
VXX -3.5%
XXV +2.6%
the scam continues
short them both, to zero
That’s what bothers me. Those are some very large dollar scams.
I should have thought of them.
Added UTIW on the breakout from the descending trendline and positive DJT and FDX action.
Pleased with my BAC-WTA purchase yesterday as well.
By starting a EDZ position, you mean like 100 shares?
10,000
not seeing all the blissfulness over the fed-ex report..in my opinion its because all the unemployed are selling flea market shit on e-bay and shipping it …makes sense to me …no?…im also sure the wall street type will take 3 days to “digest that info ”
but wait !! futures are tanking right now…
UPS and FDX are getting more from foreign rather than domestic activity – inventory rebuilding or industrial cycle starting to ramp up s/b good for logistics companies and freight forwarding now that there’s some confidence of avoiding a double dip … gotta believe with the elections coming too there will be some more stimulus as well, no?
then i would have to ask if ups&fdx ship the steel and big stuff over there or are they just mailmen? thats what i think of them ,just delivering small stuff from me to you…
stimulus i think will not be there..but not sure …no?
We use FEDEX daily. Our sales have more than doubled since Dec. 2009. So have our FEDEX bills. Oh, and we’re a loser company, very badly run, so I can just imagine how the well-run companies are doing. But then again, I’m just a cubicle-dweller, so what do I know?
just trying to confirm what i hear….thanks … where are you from ? from the U.S here and im not seeing alot of those trucks..and i do drive around alot
the Great White North. But our company sells worldwide.
What are you shipping – letters?
Software. Lots of software companies (private) are doing well right now as bidnesses look for ways to cut costs.
___
Close – we’re hardware 🙂
So big boxes packed with hdwr on a wholesale level – not odds and ends to the retail consumer …. shipped globally correct?
From graphics cards to full computer systems. Our main customers are BtoB (OEM’s, distributors, manufacturers, etc…) Although, to be fair, we use different shippers for the larger shipments.
Roughly, from Canada, 30% to Europe, 30% USA, 20% Asia, 20% ROW.
Our sales would be even higher if we could just get bloody components to build our products 🙂
Thnx Kenai …. been hearing that about the component shortage for some time … does that mean you’ve begun multiple orders with competing vendors to get invty with the possibility of canceling the competing order when fully stocked?
So far, every time we’ve placed a multiple order we ended up taking all the components because we have more demand. Our main issue now is having to go into the “spot” market” for components and pay hefty premiums for them.
For example, we found a component on the spot market last week, but by the time we got the premium approved internally (like I said, badly run company), the component was gone, and the only other alternative was triple the price.
One of our suppliers actually pushed out all their lead times to 2013. Needless to say, we’re scrambling for any kind of alternative right now. We’re not even thinking about canceling orders any time this year at the very least.
Then again, if demand suddenly dries up, we’ll have to adjust.
you’ll adjust but your vendors will dry up overnight with unwanted supplies …
Good Luck, thnx for the response.
Fly,
You’re expecting a big directional move,
yet not sure which way,
perhaps the direction will be determined later this week,
and yet you buy a 10K share position in a 3X inverse like EDZ.
is that not rushing art?
GMXR about to crush (natty) shorts…coiled spring
TBT looks lethargic here,
what do you think Jake?
Gotta have at least a little bit, Mick.
_____
If you all don’t get off this ETF crack, I’m going to recommend an intervention.
since i bought a small amt of VXX it was necessary for me to buy an equal amt of FAS just now @22.93 ..i will take it from there to see what happens at this level…so either one i can use as a hedge and will release one of them of their duty when i know which way we are going and will add then…plus i want to see how VXX acts with the FAS…might even hold both of these and watch them beat on each other for awhile…
DOW 10500 spooks me, so does 1100 on the s&p
Flyaway
Are you questioning art?
i hope someday i can buy 10000 of something
arch – How about something like PEIX ? I can get you started if you would like. 😉
i will look into that thanks i put it on my watch list and if it hangs in there …for now im looking forward to zestfully navigating the upper ranges of the trading range with the fly..and that could be a project
Flyaway- The number of shares is probably appropriately sized compared to the total account value.
Tonight’s OEW Recap:
>> Overnight another foreign index confirmed an uptrend raising the number to 6 of 13. The US market opened quietly and gradually extended the recent rally to SPX 1113, and then 1115 at the close. Currently the market is extremely overbought short term and a 10 SPX point pullback, or more, can occur at anytime. Nevertheless, this rally from the SPX 1011 low, in early July, is very close to confirming its first uptrend since April. With the technicals continuing to improve this uptrend should be Major wave one of Primary wave III. <<
The 3rd wave is generally the longest of the three waves (W1,W3,W5) up in a 5 wave formation.
For what its worth — i work in a consumer discretionary company. As of July the consumer seems to have disappeared. At best, no growth.
It could be company specific, but i dont think so. I also don’t think you will see this weakness reflected in guidance. CEOs will be hoping its a blip or whatever. But, beware Q3 results. And if what I’m seeing is systemic, the econ numbers will continue to tell the same story before Q3 ever comes along.
I do a internet ecommerce business and I see what you are seeing too. The first half was very good with solid sales every month. Then July came and as of now it is only around 55% of June sales with 5 days left.
International sales has fallen off the map mid June to now. I usually do around 15-18% international, but it has now gone down to 5-7%.
Ditto here. Run a million dollar Internet store on eBay and Amazom. First 6 month was great then came July. Price cutting is rampant and so bad for best sellers that is is not worth selling them at all. Sales is down probably 30% and profit even more due to the price cutting. There are still too many sellers and too many stores. The consumer has become like oysters clamping down and spending nothing. Retail is going to take a big hit in 3rd and 4th quarter.
U.S. July consumer confidence disappointed again at 50.4 vs. 54.3.
It seems to me that Fly is in the double dip camp, and starting to position himself for the fall. While I agree the market is going to tumble, I do not believe now is the time to position for it. I believe we have another 2-3 weeks or so of gains left in the market before another flash crash and then tumble into oblivion. In that time, VXX could drop under $20. I plan on grabbing some VXX for the eventual collapse, but I will not buy it for a few more weeks.
What price do you see natty hitting, before it plummets back to 2 bucks that is?