It’s about the metals, ladies and gentlemen. Everything you know to be true or a lie is made in China. Life itself is manufactured at FOXCONN, under the strictest supervision of a Mr. Lee, who will gladly throw you off a building and make it look like an “unfortunate suicide.”
Having said that, it’s important to notice the basic resource stocks having their fucking Jimmy’s knocked off this morning. I realize the market is manipulated and the Dow has not responded yet. But PCX, X, AKS, STLD, CLF, amongst others, are suffering under fierce lightening bolts to the face. As you know, The PPT has been over 3.00 for three consecutive days now. This is an extremely rare occurrence. As mentioned inside The PPT yesterday, 2 out of the last 3 times this has occurred, the market went significantly higher. The one time it went lower; it fucking dumped out hard. Without a doubt, we are setting up for a rather large directional move and it is very hard to argue for more upside, here at 10,500.
It’s also important to note, several months ago we made some minor changes to the algorithm, effectively making it harder for the system to be tagged “OVERBOUGHT,” at least on a macro level. Moreover, despite the system closing above 3 for three consecutive days, it never went full “OVERBOUGHT,” since 75% of large cap stocks were not rated “buy” or higher. Perhaps I am being too picky.
At any rate, in an effort to position for a pullback, I sold out of GDP, CIEN, MLNX (the rest of it), EMN and added to both EDZ and VXX.
Now, I am fully aware of the risks associated with 3x ETF’s. If you are unfamiliar, please look at a long term chart of FAZ and understand these are NOT long term investment vehicles. I suspect there will be a tug of war, between the bulls and the bears, before the direction is set in stone. Either way, rest assured, Le Fly will come out victorious.
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woe unto you
Didn’t the correction cameth?
it comething today
Sold out of all trading positions today. Thanks PPT
I will go eat a sandwich and look to re-enter when the selling ends.
Thats what she said
Trade the HEAT!
How much will we sell off? i need answers
I have tons and tons of TZA and VXX which I’m already in the hole 2% on (portfolio wise).
Maybe i should start scaling out….
Or maybe i shoould be patient and let some real selling start.
I just dunno.
I dont think we get much of a sell off. Maybe about 15 points in the S&P back down to 1100. IMO this is just a breather. If you have too much of TZA and VXX, I would lighten up on them on this move. However, I dont think we have that much of an upside left in the market before the huge swoon in September and October. I say we make it to about 1150 on the S&P by mid to late august, which will be the time to get short in size.
Oh ye of little faith.
We go to November and 1250-1300.
________
Or, maybe you should have a plan BEFORE you enter a trade.
Its the Jersey Shore indicator. I always knew it would be a pack of guido’s ringing the end of days.
That was it! Correction over; nothing to see here; please move along.
Ok , all you market profile chartists.
2 weeks of Volume composite areas (Support/Resistance) for most futures indexes (highlighted in yellow ovals)
http://chart.ly/4sr3x7
In layman’s terms, Don’t make any MAJOR buys until we drop to those areas in the major indexes. Market profile Shows where the big players have set there stops. Right now, the best support is around 1085 in the SPX futures (ES)
TLT is kickign me in the balls
not a short squeeze?
Wow, added to VXX. What percentage is allocated to VXX now. Last I saw, it was a full 20%. Fly must be preparing for a massive downturn. The last time he got this short, we had the flash crash.
It was 20%, until it fucking crapped out. Just propping it up down here.
Lots of people looking for the floor to fall out……thus it’s not going too.
How do you know the floor is really “the floor”?
Look closely for the vomit stains of pathos and capitulation.
I feel like the 50 day moving average was the ceiling and now it’s the floor. I’ll be happier when the S&P closes above 1,118. Respecting the PPT, I’ve sold half my long position. Waiting for a sign of what to do next.
It shall fall out. It will just take a bit of time to happen. I am looking to get short in size in 2-3 weeks. In the meantime, I am sitting on my hands watching fly average into his VXX position.
This is not a double dip depression its a double dip mind fuck. Everyone keeps saying that this is worse then the great depression but all it is; is just getting people to “act.” in a responsible manner, and sometimes not even that.
It calls for business’s to up its profits, but it also calls for the resistance of people to be tested and take whatever they can get. It doesn’t help that Britain has all but fortified itself as the worlds strongest currency, right next to the isle of man (which it also owns) British pensioners are punishing the US for standing up and saying the spill was bad.
So ,God save the queen, maybe we will fly under the British flag once more. As for China, I believe its growth is due too (with lack of ethical business’s taking advantage of) the entire world propping up China as another source of labor.
How is that Lake Front property doing in Iowa?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_missing_iowa_lake
Army corp of engineers accidentally let out a few extra gallons of Lake Lanier in Georgia a few years back. A few million gallons here or there, and suddenly we realized where all the bodies were buried.
Fortunately, the lake level came back, along with property values, just in time for the housing downturn to smash things well and proper.
Gold bugs getting sprayed with DDT.
Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX) went to a sell yesterday.
High yield favored over Treasuries on a two week relative strength/momentum basis.
This market will go higher.
No signs of risk aversion just yet. 10 y yield and yen crosses are all near day high (yen is more down to USD than other currencies) despite S&P well off day high. This is bullish divergence that trumps basic resource stocks.
fly do you remember me saying what we needed was a good OB sig
we would need a giant squeeze to produce such a reading, right?
Fly – I just wonder if the %Large Cap Overbought being under 75 is a side effect of being in a bear phase. Regardless of the reason, it’s a godly tool for raking in coin.
I’ll dabble in FAZ w/ Spoos nearing the 100 bar. I hope you are correct sir! Gearing up forcapitulation, enjoyed the column, looking forward to reading your end of day commentary. always a pleasure
Fly,
Is it possible that you’re wrong again this time?
Thou art not want to goeth down, I gather?
Bubo:
Of course. Life is one big bet. In light of that, my current stock market positioning is nothing more than a dot inside of a polka dot factory.
LOL, U sure have a way wit’ woids, Fly.
“Lunch is for pussy’s”
——-V.K.
and pussy is for lunch…dinner…breakfast…
Re marketing ibc. An interesting and very fun to read about aspect of ibc is the rate at which you flop your portfolio. Wholesale changes in minutes or hours or whatever. Likely few of your readers are able to follow that, as few don’t have jobs etc. A broader audience may be attractable with some thoughts given to them. Like actions they can take in the am based on the ppt or whatever and not have to think about during the day. Inside the ppt offer a standard table of suggested hedges, or something. People would, I think, pay in droves for followable actionable guidance that worked, but they cannot generally flop a portfolio mid day.
Just a thought
Person says to self “this ppt is the shiz”, gets interested. Sees fly long and bullish last night, holds longs. Checks ibc @ lunch, sees this, cannot act, feels discouraged, loses interest. Its not an implausible scenario, gents.
Again, just a thought
Fly doesn’t blog for your pleasure, only so you may marvel at how much better he is than you.
As I said in my Peanut Gallery Article….Billets Baby….it’s all about it.
some urinal shadow in the air today ?
still seein accumulation and squeeze in price action today , quite only .