Not Strong Enough

“The Fly” just got done doing “stress tests” on the market and the results are in: this shit isn’t strong enough to chase.

I want to chase some ag names here, based on the Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] news. However, I am resisting the temptation by eating sandwiches.

On a separate note, Briefing.com is reporting Dril-Quip, Inc. [[DRQ]] for Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] takeover rumors. As much as I would like to believe that, being long a million shares, Briefing can go fuck themselves, with their asshole rumors. Seriously, those coffin stuffers disseminate false rumors daily. NEVER buy into them.

If you have been long, take profits and enjoy the weekend. If you have been sitting out this rally, too bad fuckface. You missed it: better luck next time.

With [[TLT]] and [[VXX]] about to go green, Le Fly is heading back to his bear cave for a little nap.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0HklVuA_WE&feature=related 616 500]

Before you eat your strudel (invest in stocks), I insist that you wait for the creme (see if the rally can hold). I am holding off on any moves until after 10:00am.

Thank you.

Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] just guided way the fuck up tonight. Seriously, I would tell you all how I am playing this, but too many retarded money managers read me and front run my trades.

8:24 ET 3/11/10 POT Potash guides Q1 EPS to $$1.30-$1.50 vs prior $0.70-$1.00 and Reuters $0.94 ($116.93) Company notes that the upward revision reflects a sharp rebound in potash demand that is expected to drive a record quarter for North American sales volumes and strong offshore shipments, as well as higher-than-expected margins in nitrogen and phosphate. Adds that any revisions to annual guidance will be addressed in its Q1 news release on 29-Apr. Note that the current Reuters consensus for 2010 EPS is $5.12. “

Needless to say, I will be deploying capital to the ag sector, immediately, based upon this massive shift in the potash market. It appears, as I have discussed before (check my archives), farmers are no longer starving their soil, in order to save a few bucks. To do so would endanger future yields. As you can see with these Potash numbers, it’s time to milk the farmer again.

I will take 5-10% of assets and buy a basket of ag stocks, starting tomorrow morning.

My 5 year old son asked me this question today. Naturally, my reply was: “no son, he is very much alive, indeed.”

Be sure to tune into Scott Bleier’s video update today at 4:30, regarding this wacky tape. The trial is free, so quit being such a lazy ‘tard and sign up.

NOTE: Merlin was last seen playing with his rubics cube, while mumbling to himself.

“The Fly” aka Senor Tropicana aka Plutonium Petey aka HORATIO CLAWHAMMER has decided to go for a spin in his space saucer, with every intention of abducting some dumbass brokers, then dropping them into random FINRA OTR’s. Additionally, my trading is done for the day, as I have been buying massive quantities of [[VXX]] . I know, you little bitches out there will exclaim: “but, guy, the VXX is inferior to ordinary options, pfff, pfff, pfff.”

You fucking nerds need to go bark up another tree, else I will break your respective jaws with my g-force.

So what am I looking at here?

I am looking at your stupid mug telling me to buy an extended tape and I DON’T LIKE IT. I don’t like it one fucking bit, so quit doing it. By the way, a “special fuck” goes out to all of you talking heads who said “we are in a new era of volatility,” when the VIX was trading above 50. Considering I am buying it at half the value of where you liked it, you need to remove yourself from the industry.

Thank you.

Top picks: [[TLT]] , [[VXX]] , [[TAN]]

Continuing my theme of betting against the market by not really betting against it, I am allocating 10% of my assets in [[VXX]] , under $24.40.

Disclaimer: If you buy [[VXX]] because of this post, the next time you visit the zoo, an ostrich will kick you in the face. And, you may lose money.

So sorry to beat this dog to death, but the decline in [[SGG]] is plaguing me, like [[UUP]] terrorizes Jakegint in his dreams.

Folks, I fear a “blue blazer” event is in the balance. I know you have been making lots of coin, long stupidity. However, sometime soon, men with brains will reinsert your empty vessels back into the matrix—by way of putting the fear of God into your hearts.

Sugar is going down because “shit ain’t sweet no mo’.” And, on top of that, The PPT has seen the Overall Hybrid score top 3, for an unprecedented 5 times, over the last 3 weeks. These levels cannot be sustained, without a pullback. I put my word on it.

So, with my cash, I’m going long volatility, via [[VXX]] .

It’s time.

NOTE: Shout out to my boy Merlin, for calling the top yesterday.

As I obsess over the Important Matter of Sugar, I came across this gem, which boldly states that “reducing the degree of fluctuation in blood glucose may offer a possible means for the treatment and intervention of some impulsive disorders, anorexia, drug addiction, and gambling addiction.”

Furthermore, they suggest that (normal) people who drink real soda, as opposed to that shit with cancer in it, tend to think longer term. The people drinking the cancer soda get all bent out of shape and demand less money RIGHT NOW!, while regular fatties prefer more of it later.

Fascinating stuff. Without a doubt, the sugar hunt continues.

The results indicate that when we have more energy available (that is, higher levels of blood glucose), we tend to be more future-oriented. The authors note that “the future is more abstract than the present and thus may require more energy to process. Blood glucose as brain fuel would strengthen effortful cognitive processing for future events.” Conversely, having low energy (or low blood glucose levels) may make an individual focus more on the present. The finding that a diet soda drink increased the degree of future discounting suggests that artificial sweeteners may alarm the body of imminent caloric crisis, leading to increased impulsivity.

I dare to say: the credit crisis, and all of the bad decisions that were made leading up to it, were a direct result of the increase of substitute sugars! Prove me wrong.

CAVEAT: Sugar intake may cause you to think “longer term” because it makes you mentally ill. ROFL. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

“sugar consumption triggers a cascade of chemical reactions in the body that promote chronic inflammation. In the long term, inflammation disrupts the normal functioning of the immune system and wreaks havoc on your brain”

BREAKING NEWS UPDATE: Cocoa is also at a 7 month low, [[NIB]] . WTF! Is this a The Hershey Company [[HSY]] , Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. [[TR]] conspiracy? Great, now I have to obsess on cocoa too. I’ll be up all night.

Think again.

My mind works in mysterious ways. All day, I’ve been brainstorming/obsessing over the sudden and precipitous drop in the price of sugar and how it relates to the market. Traditionally, confectioners and beverage companies drive the price of sugar. More recently, due to “green initiatives,” sugar based ethanol has contributed to the price as well.

Sugar is now at 7 month lows, as shown by [[SGG]] . The drop is being attributed to a strong Brazilian crop, coupled with stiff reluctance from confectioners, The Hershey Company [[HSY]] , Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. [[TR]] etc. and beverage companies, PepsiCo, Inc. [[PEP]] , The Coca-Cola Company [[KO]] , Hansen Natural Corporation [[HANS]] , Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. [[DPS]] refusing to pay up for the sweet shit. My question to you is why?

It is a little known fact that national growth and strength coincide very nicely with beverage consumption. Has everyone, suddenly, decided to guzzle coffee, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , instead?

The Important Matter of the Price of Sugar mystery is ongoing, by yours truly. More later.

Top picks: [[TLT]] , [[TAN]]

This market is driving me fucking crazy. So you know, I have millions of dollars in cash, ready to be deployed. I am over here thinking of different strategies, which include long/short pairs. Essentially, there are some specific names that are way over valued and several NON-LEVERED ETF’s worth a looksy, like [[SEF]] and [[RWM]] . However, when scouring for short ideas, I am reminded of the the HORRIFIC— and seldom discussed losses— I incurred, back in the old dot com days.

Prior to the bubble bursting, I suspected some names, like Extreme Networks, Inc [[EXTR]], were fucking retarded and needed a good lashing. I remember shorting that bastard every day for a month. It went up in my face, nonetheless. It not only went up, it fucking “space rocketed” into outer space, leaving me dumbfounded amidst large capital losses. The good news: the short position was merely a starter position, less than 5% of assets. So, in the big scheme of things, it had little effect on my assets overall. However, the percentage loss was ABSURD. I don’t remember exactly how bad it was, since I hypnotized myself to forget such wretched experiences. But, if my notes are correct, the stock did something like $50 to $200 in a month. ROFL @ the idiot shorting that! I covered near the top of the range, just before the stock collapsed and settled into a permanent burlap lined coffin.

This market has a similar feel to early 2000, when everyone thought the market should go down, but it just kept charging higher—until it stopped. When it stopped, as you well know, no prisoners were taken. We all received the ominous “black flag.”

In summary, I’ve managed to avoid fucking myself by choosing [[TLT]] over going short. That’s a plus. Despite missing out on big gains, I have no regrets. We all have our investment style that is unique to how we think. Sometimes it takes time for a thesis to pan out, other times it happens immediately. As good as the market feels now, remember the pain you felt when your local bank was forced to suck the tit of President Bush, via bailout. By no means are we out of the water, just yet. As a matter of fact, we are building the world’s largest and most successful ponzi scheme, similar to tupperware sales ladies, only MUCH bigger and far more sinister. Also, please remember, you are trading a bullshit 5 figure account at Zeeco.

Trade accordingly.

UPDATE: I sold out of Visa Inc. [[V]] , north of $90.80