HO, HO, HO

Keep your eye on the metals. They are making a late year move. For the most part, they have no participated in the 2010 rally. It is widely believed U.S. gdp will grow at a 4% clip in 2011. Surely, we will not build with sugar and cotton. Position ahead of the herd.

Top picks: AKS, CENX

NOTE: ORCL smashed earnings.

NOTE II: TTWO blew away numbers. You’re welcome.

Earlier today I suggested purchase of bond funds, specifically for the month of January. Correct me if I am wrong, but we’re still in December, no? I pardon your transgressions and forgive you of trespasses. Now is not the time for bond funds, small pleb. Instead, it is time to delve, mind you, into commodity related stocks. I am pleased with the action of my metal positions: AKS and CENX. For the most part, aluminum has been one of the few disappointments of 2010, due to excess supply in China. However, as growth commences, so will demand. CENX is a leveraged play on aluminum. Should prices spike, so will CENX.

I’m liking gold and silver on this dip. My favorite is EKX, of course. Additionally, I am a HUGE fan of REXX, at these levels, or anything under $15.

Essentially, “The Fly” is all about winning, irrespective of monetary gain. Oh, in case you were wondering, yes, I am riding my TTWO position into earnings this evening.

A great man once said, “No balls, no babies.”

NOTE: I trimmed my FTK position down to 100k.

Looking over seasonal data for the month of January, one thing is for certain: it is the month of bond funds. I am not talking marginal outperformance. Some muni bond funds have been up 20 straight years, without a downer. Looking over some funds, like EIM, this trade looks very, very tempting.

Municipal bonds are the proverbial canary in the coal mine, for America. Meaning: should the credit of the United States come into question, it will first be expressed in the muni market. I do not think that is the case right now. I believe there is a massive asset allocation switch taking place, year end bullshit.

With regards to S&P versus bond divergence, it is wide as fuck right now; but it never lasts. The two will meet somewhere in the middle, eventually. That means stocks will trade down and bonds will trade up. I expect this trade to be on full blast, starting January.

What’s the trade?

I have a variety of bond funds on my watchlist, all listed inside The PPT‘s Risk Appetite Index. The seasonal factors are too tempting to ignore, especially after such large declines. Plus, Bill Gross just stepped up and dropped $17 mill of his personal fortune into a variety of bond funds. That has to count for something, no?

This bond fund trade is equal to TLT in August or Q in December: flawless.

Over the next two weeks, I will be wrapping up my year and reflecting on what went right and wrong, for me, during 2010. There are many lessons to be learned, some will repeat over and over again, in a loop, because I am stubborn. However, there are some distinct methods that I have picked up this year, all to do with trusting Clams, especially the ones who have beards. Nevertheless, before I delve into my successes and failures, let’s have a look at the overall market and what worked/failed.

Biggest winners, under $1 billion market cap:

Biggest losers, under $1 billion market cap:

Biggest winners, YTD, with min market cap of $1 billion:

Biggest losers, with min market cap of $1 billion:

ETF’s only

Biggest Winners:

Biggest losers

The passage of the tax bill, albeit reckless, is sure to help buoy equity prices in the near-intermediate term. It is HUGE. However, the bigger story is the ongoing COLLAPSE taking place in the bond market. PPT subs, take a look at The Risk Appetite Index. We are approaching “Flash Crash” levels of panic and equities have no budged. Why?

Answer: the money is finding a home in stocks. That is the only logical reason for the vast disconnect. Granted, borrowing costs are going up; but they are hardly punitive. Do not discount the carnage in the bond market as nothing, for it is the apocalypse for fixed income players. Remember, they have nowhere to go, due to the Fed’s zero rate policy. Moreover, corporations need to think about alternatives to Treasuries, such as other companies that are publicly traded. Perhaps this is the intend of the Fed? Who knows.

All I know is what I see. And I see dead people in bonds, while young fuckers pop champagne bottle long stocks. You must admit, the transaction is taking place in a very orderly fashion.

In short: buy stocks, get drunk, and do something special.

Top picks: REXX, EXK

There is nothing to talk about. There is nothing to analyze. There are more sellers than buyers today, in most stocks, with exception to the psychopath shareholders bases of AMZN and OPEN. Needless to say, I am not paying much attention to today’s action. If I did, I’d drive myself fucking insane.

Dollar up, commodities down, treasuries down equals people getting nervous and shit. If you are short term oriented, prepare for a pullback and be ready for it. Today’s tepid reaction is nothing, by the way. When the market really “consolidates”, it will trade down 5-10% inside of two weeks.

Bottom line: I am not buying dips, nor am I selling.

I love preparing for the new year. As many of you know, I take this shit very seriously, unlike you liberal communist bastards. I partake in numerous rituals and make endless sacrifices to the stock Gods, in order to help bestow gifts of coins upon my own person.

Using proprietary screens inside of The PPT, I’ve been scouring the market for GARP. If you do not know what the acronym means, you are dumb and should leave this site, right now. Basically, I am interested in growth at a reasonable price. Moreover, I want to buy some dogs in 2011, stocks that grossly underperformed in 2010, but shows signs of promise going forward.

If we get a sell off, you need to stay on top of and monitor growth stocks at a discount. For example, BBY and VECO will offer optimal entry points at some point. You need to figure out when.

I haven’t lost money for weeks it seems. It’s almost unnatural to keep making money, unchecked. Believe it or not, I look forward to a little adversity and hardship, sometime soon. It’s the way I’m built, unlike you spoiled dick-suckers, who fold at the first sign of danger and/or setback.

Sharp reversal, following a nothing Fed meeting, as expected. Am I to react to every single fucking tick in this market? Fuck that, I spent my day eating some chili and chicken almond salad sandwich, sans the chips. That shit is for porkers.

The day isn’t done; but I know how this will end. Most of my stocks are getting trimmed, nothing too bad. Again, I am perfectly willing to endure a sell off. Even though I am fully invested (10% cash), the game plan is to ride in cars made from dynamite, into the Sun, into 2011. The cowardly way out is to cash up and hedge myself like a pussy. Actually, that would be okay, if it wasn’t for my proclivities to partake in dangerous activities. My style is not your style; trust me. Listen to what Chess and RC preach, for they will guide you in a conservative, yet sophisticated manner.

I have a plethora of stupid conference calls to make. I fucking hate the “office space” feel to the money management business sometimes. For the most part, brokerage houses are riddled with middle management morons, only capable of pissing in other people’s cups. Little do they know, I shit in their hot chocolate.

Into the bell, “The Fly” remains unchanged in his belligerent attitude towards others and is hellbent on winning.

Nothing new and nothing old.

Go shoot yourself in the face with a howitzer. What’s today’s daily doom? Did the fucking bond bubble burst? Oh, wait, the pending Fed announcement will be contrived, no matter what, as incredibly bearish. Let’s face facts: you’re not qualified to manage anyone’s money. Moreover, you are not capable of operating on the top shelf, especially when it comes to this business of bloggery.

I expect the market to dip on the Fed announcement. I do not care if it comes back. If we shoot straight up: great. You need to understand something about me: I speed chop carrots, while placing my balls on the counter. I am not scared of anything, sans driving on idiot roads on the side of mountains. Go ahead, keep betting against me; see where it gets you.

I told you this day would come, when “The Fly’s” winship was so supreme, it would stifle the entire fucking blog. None of you cocksuckers say a word, else I’ll melt your faces off with my internet laser beam.

Into the Fed meeting, I am long Bearded Clam, America and whatever the fuck the voices in my head tell me to buy.

I bought CX and VMC, as I swallowed whole ice cubes.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, the next time you eat steak, you will choke and die. And, you may lose money.