iBC blogger, Scott Bleier was one of the first to call it, back in June. At that time, most were still “Rick Ross’n”, long the market, banking coin on the dumbest stocks since 2000. I think it’s fair to say, the part is over and the sledding will be getting progressively harder, as the screws tighten around Europe’s gayest countries.
Going through my screens, so many insurance and economically sensitive names are in grave danger of becoming headline news. Remember, the insurance firms invest their premiums in equities. Speaking of equities, do not forget about the pension liabilities of large corporations who made overzealous projections. The deficits will choke off these stocks and suffocate investors, amidst chards of metal and copious amounts of black smoke.
Although it’s hard to initiate shorts here. I am fairly convinced the primary trend is lower. Therefore, if I do begin to short here, I will do so in increments. If the S&P is going to 850, there is a fuckload of money to be made on the short side, even from current levels. Do not feel like you missed out because you weren’t short GS at $150. This is “other side of the mountain” pin action, supported by a rapidly eroding economy, tends to spiral out of control lower, before normalcy. Things will always ebb and flow, as policy makers try to salvage the recovery via aggressive stimuli and/or quantitative easing. However, this has a distinct feeling that the horse has left the fucking barn and is now shitting all over the farmers house, kicking in windows and shit with his stupid horse shoes (I don’t like horses).
Inside The PPT, I put up a watchlist of names on my “to short list.” I will be updating it often and will alert members of my game plan as it progresses.
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But you were really bearish last summer too.
long story.
needless to say, I changed my opinion after QE2 taught me a lesson
But might there be a Qe3 lesson soon?
The Fed is out of bullets. There is too much political push back for a QEIII unless they figure out a way to camouflage it somehow.
Besides, how much good did QEI and II actually do? An artificial bump that lasted exactly how long? And left us how far in the hole?
QEIII…….I think not, but if they try it there will be limited positive effect.
The tea party is screwing you communists over, it’s such a pity..
The commies ultimately want their commie utopia fantasyland. Not sure why they think a better life wasn’t possible with a better-protected Constitutional republic. Makes absolutely no sense to me. And that they use Saul Alinsky tactics to keep it all so hush hush is quite disturbing, too.
However, there is a big difference between it “working” in the sense of fixing the economy vs. “working” in the sense that it causes a bull market trend. The economy will likely get fixed over time, after a period of limited growth. But if we can have a bull rally to accompany that period of minimal growth, that’s a lot better. Then hopefully by the time QE3 runs out, the numbers/growth will improve due to other things.
So it’s not really whether QE3 works but whether it’s perceived to work, or more precisely, whether it causes a market rally so I can make $$ from stocks.
Postponing the cycle of boom-bust-contraction-consolidation-boom will not work. They are trying to avoid contraction. QE2 messed with inflation, messed with currency, and QE3 would only continue to ignite the currency war already going – Dollar Euro Yen now Franc
When the US flips over to a police state, it will have to happen quickly. Surprise will be necessary, to squelch any organized reprisals. The question is in the timing of the whole affair… the markets will continue to be artificially floated by the central bankers until they are ready to move. One must watch UN legislation closely to determine when this might happen.
I will take the opposite side of that trade.
Let’s see. QE3, jobs package, a few wars around the World and when is the next vote over new debt ceiling scheduled? In November 2011?
Greece tried all this years to live like this and did not succeed (except for wars, of course). It had an exceptional job package, everyone had a job in public sector, if not elsewhere, with 13th and 14th salary. And a constant QE for them, too. And look, what happened.
sorry, this reply was meant for Mad_Scientist.
I don’t know if I buy that. We can’t be equated with Greece.
To me the “debt ceiling” damage is a charade. Oh yes everyone was so worried about the safety of US debt and were so paralyzed with fear over the downgrade in credit rating that they poured millions of dollars into buying US treasury bonds? Come on. Nobody really cared about that, so it would seem. (Nor about the “polarization” and arguing of politicians – when have politicians not argued?). The big selloff had to do with cold hard facts about the economy (no recovery) and the crises in Europe. Anything else I’m missing? Also not sure what multiple wars around the world you’re referring to.
But I really doubt that arguments about cutting programs in November will be anything other than an excuse for the market to do what it was going to do anyway.
I just got done spending like Rick Ross at Best Buy. How could this be a recession?
Something tells me that you did not buy Best Buy stock on Jan. 1 and keep holding it YTD. If this were not a recession, you would have done so, or would be sorry you hadn’t.
Best Buy’s problem is that much of the electronic purchases are being done via the internet now a days.
They have too much sq footage, too much inventory to complete with the Amazons of the world.
Although, I did just buy a 60 inch tv from them.
So you could avoid recession yet still have Best Buy stock perform like crap.
If were BBY, I’d shut down almost all of the large box stores and go lean with BBY mobile stores. But this strategy will not be friendly for stock holders.
AMZN isn’t far off from its 52 week high. But to not have a recession, it would have to have a lot more company in that respect, from other stocks staying up too, than it does now.
On site retail will never go away. There will always be people who want to look at and “feel” the merchandise in person.
________
Agree. There will always be a need for them but in a different shape and size.
Holding refrigerators and wash machines doesnt appear to be exactly booming.
Yet the mobile division is always busy.
Yeah but just ANOTHER reason that it is structural unemployment. With all the other job market issues, the continued tech cultural shift. Borders/B&N
To think net positive jobs would ever truly redevelop without major consolidation is dummish. I mean bullish
Bose Companion 5 has been a success for me.
Shouldn’t you be out beating up Amish people?
Monsieur Le Fly, I hesitate to suggest musical opportunities but I cannot imagine any other financial blogger who would let me even type in the name of The Rotten Cocksucker’s Ball. The 1954 original, done by The Clovers, is a mere 94 seconds out of your life at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-n5vG2SjJY
(Ignore the YouTube comments. We all know that fellatio was invented in 1961, prior to then there was no homosexuality and women had only thought of using their hands.)
Dr. Ruth you are not.
KRUGMAN: Bush, Giuliani ‘fake heroes’ who cashed in ‘on the horror’September 11, 2011, The Years of Shame
Is it just me, or are the 9/11 commemorations oddly subdued?
Actually, I don’t think it’s me, and it’s not really that odd.
What happened after 9/11 — and I think even people on the right know this, whether they admit it or not — was deeply shameful. Te atrocity should have been a unifying event, but instead it became a wedge issue. Fake heroes like Bernie Kerik, Rudy Giuliani, and, yes, George W. Bush raced to cash in on the horror. And then the attack was used to justify an unrelated war the neocons wanted to fight, for all the wrong reasons.
A lot of other people behaved badly. How many of our professional pundits — people who should have understood very well what was happening — took the easy way out, turning a blind eye to the corruption and lending their support to the hijacking of the atrocity?
The memory of 9/11 has been irrevocably poisoned; it has become an occasion for shame. And in its heart, the nation knows it.
I’m not going to allow comments on this post, for obvious reasons
How can you stop comments. Whats obvious is you.
I cut myself off there. What is obvious is you don’t want someone to disagree. Is that it? Then why post?
Yes we Can! Yes we can! Yes we Can!
Tonight, at Dugans Pub, one of the fine pubs of Pinehurst there was a brief moment of clarity for me. As George Bush, walked onto the field of tonight’s Sunday Night NFL football gamme the entire establishment stood up and started clapping. It was a beautiful moment..
Not that I’m a big fan of GWB (RINO) but that the zombie days of Obama-lama-ding-dongs
are over.
Would anybody here take 10x earnings on the their business? 8x 7x 4x book?
QE3 will get sold– commoners are gonna get hit on all the bank caca? What to do? put your thumb in your ass and earn 25 bips?
Confidence is gone…Obama is now a lame duck president…inspiring 0 confidence, to go with 0% earnings and 0% GDP 0% interest.
Good luck shorting it this time in 2011…imagine the headline swings of 6 and 7%. 1.9 10 year…good luck with 140 $SPY.
And in English?
NO ONE thought 10yr could get under 2. Except the guy I follow. When Bill Gross stepped away his treasuries, TLT all the way.
10yr certainly ‘potentially’ could go to 1 or near. If fear becomes panic
Krugman should be mercilessly dismembered with gardening tools
Vito, if you disagree with him, why not state why, rather than just say he should be murdered? Or are you just into random acts of violence?
Interesting. There are 4 thumbs up people for whom simply stating that the author ought to be murdered appears to be a reasonable response to the quote above. Really high caliber discussion here, Folks.
No wonder lots of message boards prohibit “discussion” of politics.
You sure suggest it enough, that’s for sure.
Why not St. Francis University about it after all this time?
Or at least… learn brevity!
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Methinks people give thumbs up cuz it’s funny. Not cuz they think he means the person should or will be killed.
Goes without saying. Frog is somewhat robotic in the responses however… could be it’s not programmed to sense irony, either.
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Variety is the spice of life. Shit on the variety and make it go away, and the outer context that gave you meaning now makes you meaningless. This shit is all intrinsically intertwined. Try again.
“It is the anniversary of 9/11/01… That tragedy brings tears to my eyes to this day as I am sure the tragedy of Pearl Harbor brings tears to my parents generations eyes. It was a horrible and senseless act of hatred. BUT no one can keep me safe from it. Just think about it. Was it a federal officer, homeland security person, local cop that stopped shoe bomber man, or United Flight 93 from going into the Whitehouse? No it was alert, heroic, and good citizens. We can take care of ourselves. And we should.”
from:
http://www.facebook.com:80/pages/Texas-Rose-Stock-Market-Newsletter/146606795425327
The party is just beginning for me. Indeud.
I devide market cap in millions by the number of employees, any more than 1 employee per million of market cap is high. Companies like MT are extreme, for example, at like 8 employees. A hypothetical investment of 1 million dollars gives you 8 new employees to call your own, well done and good luck. A good level is like 0.5 but there are companies with extremely low employee legacy out there.
Finally the waking of the best Short Seller out there !!!
Fly is God !
GREAT calls in ’08..
Shanahan for President. Redskins beat the tom toms, Giants beat their whatever. Long nite on 3rd Ave.
First time in seven outings… start of a trend?
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Couldn’t believe Rex Grossman played so well. I have a feeling he’s setting us up for a big letdown for the rest of the season.
Well, its clear you are correct. Honestly, the only safe thing to do at this point is to probably wait for the entire European situation to unfold. That could take another year or two, but thats just a guess.
There is no safe investing on the long side until the EU situation has reached its conclusion.
You will know the conclusion has been reached when all of Europe is aflame and bodies are everywhere.
just sayin………
But then there will be some other situation that we have to wait out its resolution. With this type of strategy you will just “sit out” forever. There is no such thing as safe investment at any time, anywhere. There is always risk involved. I for one will not sit out while those douchebags in Europe collapse their banking system or get their act together. They don’t run my life.
The difference is here we go to the mall, there, they take to the streets
holy shit, look at this quote:
“Germany’s EU commissioner Günther Oettinger said Europe should send blue helmets to take control of Greek tax collection and liquidate state assets. They had better be well armed. The headlines in the Greek press have been “Unconditional Capitulation”, and “Terrorization of Greeks”, and even “Fourth Reich”.”
Holy shit is right. Heavey duty situation there.
Heavy, I meant.
Not surprising if you know history, the off and on frenemies of that Eurocluster over there
Feeble-minded central bankers orgasm at the thought of collecting more power. Is it any wonder these mental munchkins have taken us to this point?
iBC blogger, Scott Bleier was one of the first to call it, back in June.
Great call in June. Not so good when he made similar calls in Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, and May. But he’s kickin’ my ass that’s for sure.
I remember the “ring the bell and take profits” mantra in the October timeframe on his radio show before it went behind the curtain.
Let’s all sign a pledge here and now to go only short until the market starts reversing. I nominate Grover Gint to draft the pledge.
“iBC blogger, Scott Bleier was one of the first to call it, back in June.”
Really? After everybody called it in May?
I actually think a Greek default isn’t a bad thing, Fly. It lets the pressure out and it certainly allows people to recognize the obvious. It doesn’t have to be disorderly either.
Of course the market will go down on the news, but it’s a good thing longer term.
The Euro’s at 1.3580 in Asia. If this crap falls below 1.3500 it will go into to 1.20’s in a week’s time.
This is actually a good thing for the Euro.
Fly,
Will you be providing health insurance to your bloggers when Obama-care is enacted or will you opt for paying the penalty?
ROFLMAO!!
More likely he will be forming death panels, toute de suite.
___________
Sadly, these are the questions that are asked daily by small business owners across America.
A must read for anyone interested in monetary policy.
He should be on the IBC blogroll
This dude is a great monetary economist and is slowly changing views around the world in terms of what needs to be targeted and why.
” Credit is easy at the moment, but monetary policy is tight”
He gets it in one.
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=10738
More scribbling out loud.
Last week we witnssed an historic event. The hardest arse Central bank in the world- the Swiss National Bank- decided to go into the money printing business and hand out as much newsly minted swiss francs as people want because the situation in the region would have basically wrecked their economy as a result of the strengthening of the Swiss franc. It would have destroyed their real economy.
Now if the hard arsed Swiss have basically caved does anyone really think the Germans won’t cave in terms of allowing the ECB to QE?
I think we’re not that far from the ECB announcing emergency measures to do some serious QE. This time I also think there could a coordinated approach to it too with the world’s major CB’s getting into the act.
That’s called a currency war. The same exact thing that happened in 29-30
I hate being at the mercy of squabbling politicians, central bankers and policy makers. Bailouts, stimulus plans, quantitative easing, currency manipulation…its not even remotely a “free market” anymore. I realize these things have always been a fact of life–but never to the degree we see these days and all at the same time. You simply can’t take long-term positions, long or short, with any confidence these days.
Eric:
The macro problem is actually caused and solved monetarily. The central banks need to recognize that raising NGDP to 5% will work. Milt told us this decades agao when he wrote the book on the greet depression.
zero bound doesn’t limit the CB from acting further.
Read that link I posted earlier. The credit is easy but monetary policy is tight in various parts of the world.
For all those naysayers suggesting we would be ruined with QE2, I ask one simple question.
Where’s the hyper-inflation? Where the hyer weak dollar?
Take a position in physical silver and gold since we all know what’s going to happen with the world’s currencies, once the USD finally crashes. Also buy farmland.
You’re real late…like buying the Nazz in Feb 2000.
oops hyper-weak..
“this has a distinct feeling that the horse has left the fucking barn and is now shitting all over the farmers house, kicking in windows and shit with his stupid horse shoes”
You couldn’t have said it better, Fly. Indeed it does have such a feeling. Worse than the feelings that erupt when we discuss politics on the board here– and that’s pretty extreme
Friday was my best day to date. Have puts on DIA, MCP, NFLX long MVIS @ .84 stock. The five year weekly chart were 8,8,2008 is at…that’s us right now. Thats my play. Tell me how stupid I was later. Playing DIA to 8000 by November option expiry. Adding on any 200 point pops.
I don’t want the world to be fucked, it just is.
I hate to say it… But WNR and GSVC topped out a long time ago. You’re gonna get destroyed on those two positions if you don’t sell them.
Not just Scott. Actually, all of this topped in Feb 2011 when LME Copper Topped..stupid bubble.
On a more important topic, do you think Russell Edgington is coming back to True Blood, and is Tara actually dead? I hate when the season ends.
Dude, you just ruined all my DVR recordings. Great!
Stockrider…actually Dude-ette, sorry, I should have indicated Spoiler Alert for Fangers.
I think we’re about to see the central bankers ratchet up the manipulation to an all-time high. Watch this market plummet and then go straight up from there. They have to keep this shit running on fumes until they get their political ducks in order to usher in their United Nations bullshit legislation.
People
Buy Euro Swiss as you have protection by the Swiss NB at 1.200.
Load up and stick a stop at 1.1800 and forget the trade.
Spy down 1.5% why does it feel like 5%..
believe it or not we are still trading above last Tuesday lows