PREPARE TO SHOMP

I bought 250,000 shares of MU today, based on semi strength. As you can see, my current thesis is to be long tech, with SWKS, CIEN, AMD, VMW and MU buys today. I’ve been selling WNR throughout the day, in an effort to reduce exposure to commodities. I cut losses on my quick mistake, ZSL. And, I bought a fairly sizable call position in TZA, to partly hedge today’s buys.

My cash position, counting my TLT position, stands at around 50%. I will allocate a final 20% into tech, on news of some sort of solution to the European crisis. I’ve definitely pared some of my gains over the past week. However, it was never mine to begin with. I view the market as a game, not so much different from how you fucking idiots play X-box. When my points go down, I simply get them back. But this is a unique period for me, as I am very hesitant about putting money to work here. I am doing so against my better judgement and would not be surprised if I get torched on today’s buys.

But I must play. I cannot sit idle while fuckers like you make all of the money. My view is fairly static with regards to initiating shorts here: it cannot be done. We are down big and the market is deeply oversold. There is a strong chance that policy makers intervene and cause a tidal wave of short covering, a squeeze for the ages. Knowing that, I’d be nothing more than a big butted baboon if I started shorting ahead of such an event.

Pardon my sloppy trading over the past week, as I am in a state of transition. Once I get my thesis and strategy planned out, the sailing will be fairly smooth.

I bought 10,000 SWKS.

I sold out of ZSL, cutting my losses at 4%.

I trimmed back on my WNR position in order to reduce my exposure to the stock. It was simply too big a weighting and I do not like today’s action in the sector. Full disclosure, I took a floater on HFC this morning and was quickly stopped out. Crack spreads are tightening and WTI-BRENT spreads are narrowing. That’s why people are selling. Nevertheless, I still like the sector long term, just not at a 25% weighting.

I put some money to work, buying VMW, CIEN, AMD with a TZA hedge. At the moment, I am not sure of my cash level. However, it is likely unch.

The market wants to go higher, but is stifled by the overwhelming news flow that seems to get progressively worse. I am going to repeat what I said earlier: keep it light and don’t chase.

Last night, STLD announced a 30% EPS earnings warning. This morning, BBY announced a 30% decline in profits. If you take a look at the majority of bad EPS misses over the past quarter, you are looking at 30% EPS cuts across the board. Analysts are on crack, just like the Tea Party, with $105 EPS forecasts for 2012. If the current trend persists, we are looking at $65 to $75 in earnings for 2012.

The market opened higher this morning, after vacillating wildly between pre-market gains and losses. The rumor mill is in full force and markets are on edge. Having said that, like a bird with my head in the sand, I like refiners here, CVI, HFC and WNR.

Oh well, as I type this the market has begun to trade lower.

I will be keeping it light, on hold until there is clarity on the European debt crisis.

NOTE: I sold out of my TNA

I think it’s time to introduce a little self examination into the blog conversation. My opinions, as well as yours (especially yours) mean absolutely nothing, with regards to money management. While you may believe in a thesis or an idea, at the end of the day, your opinions must form around reality, else your money will run out.

Case in point: I am very much interested in seeing the prospects of gluttonous silver miners routed from public discourse, via outright bankruptcy, of the most horrendous variety. However, these same piggish individuals may endeavor, through steadfast determination, to see my short position dissolved through my own insolvency before that of their own. It is my job, as a member of the investor class, to foresee such an incredulous event and cut losses. Sometimes I cut them slow, others times with great expediency.

Some believe my opinions are too malleable, easily molded to conform with current events. However, it is this flaw that tends to be my greatest attribute, oddly enough. I’ve been a horrible forecaster with regards to investment philosophies, over the span of my illustrious career. At times, my thesis can be exactly the opposite of what needs to be done. However, I’ve managed to make a great deal of money for my clients and even more for myself, thanks to the law of large numbers and multiplication.

Think about the amount of money you’ve made in your finest year and multiply it by 10 to get an idea of my annual take.

Back to my point. You mustn’t pretend to be a great philosopher or fortune teller of the market. Instead, march with bold strides and keep a hard exterior, while remaining a humble student of it, consistently demanding more from your efforts. It is not enough to simply try hard. You must finance your education and dedicate time towards your struggle.

Opinions are fun and serve as points of contention for market participants to filter and gather conclusions. However, they should never be viewed as gospel or de facto blueprints for long term investment plans. The world is dynamic and correlations are in flux, lending to instability.

Often times true knowledge can be ascertained through the study of actions, both by 1st hand experience and through the examination of others who know what the fuck they are doing, unlike your dumbass.

In short, you need to shut the fuck up and watch the pimp hand, in slow motion, as it rains down a handful of stinging pain on your fat faces.

Good night.

If any of you say you nailed the idiotic moves in the markets today, you’re banned. As for me, I churned my personal/aggressive account into dust, meandering in between TNA and TZA short term call contracts. The reason why I lost was because of time. I relearned a very valuable lesson in greed: never bet on a price with just 5 days till expiration. The trade had to be perfect, sublime, in a world filled with errors.

My managed accounts faired well, long WNR, TLT and GSVC, saddled with 70% cash.

Towards the end of the day, I went long Oct 38 calls on TNA and coupled it with a ZSL long. Pardon my bluntness, but silver is trading down, significantly, shortly. With the dollar as the new safe haven, gold and silver has lost its luster. Also, it’s worth noting, silver is for people clad with wooden shoes and black turtle neck hoodies.

Bottom line: today’s action was superb and should lead to a follow up rally, unless of course the Europeans fuck it via more news.

I truly hate silver and intend to crush the Jerry Lewis silver traders, in this life time or the next.

I bought 10,000 ZSL, personal.

I am sure Dennis Gartman is long of VXX in Swiss Francs today, after going short of gold against Brazilian Reals. The commodity story is a heavy bag to carry now, as hedge funds close out the year with staggering losses. As you know, the biggest and the worst funds are “long of” commodity related stocks. To avoid unnecessary carnage, I advise to steer clear of any commodity related stock that has heavy institutional ownership.

At the same time, I strongly advise that you avoid shorting tech stocks. The balance sheets are too good and the sector is ripe for consolidation. Instead of paying divvys. managers might opt to buy businesses, as an avenue to park cash. If shorting is your thing, stick with the basic materials/financials. Or, you can fuck around with retail. However, retail is always retarded.

With my money, I find myself frozen, unable to do anything. I am long TLT, WNR, GSVC and a little TNA; but most of my money (70%) is in cash. I’d like to say I am waiting for a dip buying opportunity. But, even if it was given to me on a silver platter, I’d have a difficult time crawling out of my shell.

Look, I have gains for the year and I want to keep them. I’m not interested in taking unnecessary risk, during the month of September, a month infamous for wiping out overzealous traders. I am running my screens and preparing the grounds for eventual war, but doing so from the safety of my “COWARD-MOBILE”, parked in the high mountains of Romania, amidst goats and grass.

Gun to my head: we rally. However, I can say all sorts of shit from my “COWARD-MOBILE”, so take it with a grain of salt.

UPDATE: I sold TNA

Okay, the euro-fags (no offense to gay guys) went to sleep. Now we can rally-ho into the wind, with sun shining on our faces and malt liquor in our mouths. Literally, there is nothing holding us back but fear itself. But we get to party hard, until the end; because that’s how we roll. Nevertheless, aside from my current TNA position, I have nothing new to speak of. I cashed up on Friday and bought some TLT, in order to “Do the Hugh.”

Today’s tells are RKH and BAC. If the banks can remain strong, we rally 200 points from here.

Some of you thrive during markets like this. I fucking hate it. Although I am a short term trader, this shit adds a new dimension to the phrase “short term.” I like to build positions and relax, poolside, whilst banning fuckers on my web blog. If you look at the year to date losses of some key companies, the numbers are absolutely staggering.

TEX is down 55% YTD. MT is down 55% YTD. ARO is down 60% YTD. AKAM is down 56% YTD. I could go on.

The point I am trying to make is simple. We have an edgeless market here, with all of these cross-currents. On one hand, things look so grim. On the other, according to broader market valuations, stocks can still go a lot lower. When you add in the prospect of a surprise merger, buoyed by robust corporate balance sheets, you stand to literally fuck yourself, one way or another, playing this tape.

For now, I am opting for huge cash positions and investments in only a few names, in order to reduce the risk of surprise sex.

With regards to my options account. I squandered a 125% gain on Friday, only to sell at a 10% loss. Going into today, I was long TZA calls, which was up huge in pre-market. However, as soon as the market opened, it deflated. I ended up selling for a small loss. Then, I did a 180, in true fucktard fashion, and bought TNA calls, only to see them melt away during the Obama speech. At the moment, I remain long those calls; but find myself in a weak position in this jerk off tape. I am over-trading and making errors, only because of greed. It’s a killer.