18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Refiners are trading like shit again and oil is getting smashed over the past two days. However, the market has been going up on oil weakness, which is nonsensical. Basically, the indices go higher no matter what. Generally, stocks look tired. Solar stocks broke out today because of the China subsidy news. But if you were long solar over the past month, you got your fucking brains kicked in.
Auto stocks and banks are looking good, as well as retailers. But volatility is basing out, fuckface. It’s done going lower and a storm is brewing.
LTRO is the stupidest shit in modern finance. It is barbaric and it will end in absolute failure. You can bank on that.
The market is on a roaring streak higher, avoiding any semblance of moderation. How calm has the market been? We haven’t traded down more than 1% for several months now, first time we’ve accomplished such a feat since the grande old days of 2007. Oh how I long for the subprime days of 2007, when the world teetered on collapse and men invested heavily right before the bottom dropped out.
Believe me, had I warned you about the market back in 2007, you would have ignored me and kept on buying dog shit. Wait a cotton picken’ minute: I was blogging in ’07 and did indeud warn you!
Look, we’ve been down this road before, haven’t we? I tell you what is going to happen and you ignore me because your brains are small. For a while, you will gloat while swimming in the shit soup, decrying Le Fly as being “passe”–because that’s what faggots do. But then it will all unravel soon enough and the market will sip your soup, leaving you sitting there with dried up feces all over your face.
It’s worth noting, I am merely watching this ordeal, not really in, out or betting against. I’m up nearly 20% and have 75% of my assets in cash. It’s true, I own some VXX and TZA, but nothing too serious. I also own TIF and CPST, but nothing too gargantuan.
We’re running higher on fumes. The bubble is expanding. But I will not try to pop it. It’s equally dangerous trying to pop the bubble as being inside of it. One never knows how far the bubble will expand before it pops. The only thing we know is this: it most certainly will pop. It is not a question of “if” but “when.”
The market is about to kick your teeth in. The Greek deal is now in the rearview mirror; let’s talk about European GDP. Oh, wait, you don’t want to talk about European GDP, do you? Perchance, would you prefer to talk about Portuguese debt?
As an aside, China announced they will be giving subsidies to LED manufacturers, which is particularly bullish for CREE and maybe LEDS.
Here are the terms, swiped from a government website:
1) The bidder must be legally registered in China and have certain design, production and manufacturing capabilities. Annual capacity must be at least 30,000 units for LED street lights and LED tunnel lights and at least 200,000 units for recessed downlights and PAR lamps.
2) The bidder must be an independent legal corporation with registered capital of at least 50 million RMB (US$ 8 million).
3) The bidder must have strong R&D, quality management systems and advanced manufacturing processes.
4) Over the past two years, the bidder cannot have had any commercial disputes arising from quality issues or any litigation involved in the production and supply of LED products.
5) The bidder must be in good financial health.
6) The bidder must have good after-market support.
7) The bidder must meet the National Development and Reform Commission’s LED technical requirements and product certifications.
8) The bidder must have the right to use product trademarks.
9) The bidder must comply with relevant national laws, administrative regulations, and have a good reputation and honest business ethics.
10) The bidder must purchase tender documents ($500 RMB, which includes electronic documents).
11) The bidder must attend opening ceremonies (dates, times, and locations are all provided).
Separately, TIF’s new jewelry line–RUBEDO–is being well received, worldwide. Prices range from $200 to $8,000, for a little eccentric piece of rose gold, lined with silver. Mrs. Fly might call it “so awesome and amazing.”
Let the games begin, and please do act responsibly. “The Fly” is embedded in mirth, for he knows what you only dream of understanding.
Typically bonds trade counter to stocks. Meaning: when stocks trade up, bonds go down and vice versa. However, during this recent run, both stocks and bonds have risen in tandem, which raises the obvious question: what’s different this time around?
Is it the Fed’s purposeful intervention that is artificially depressing yields in an attempt to rescue the housing market? Think about it. They are “creating” wealth via a roaring stock market and keeping rates absurdly low at the same fucking time–diabolical genius!
They are having their cake and eating it too.
The rising wealth wave, that is the stock market, is inherently inflationary. Fuckers like me go out and buy boats, cars and clothes. Plus, I might hire a blogger or two. By keeping rates so low at a time when the market is ripping is better than any tax cut “the chimpanzee” (Bush) ever passed. Obama is a financial guru, led by the greatest man who has ever lived, Benjamin Bernanke.
Naturally, this will end badly, vis a vie $100 tomatoes and things of that nature. But, in the meantime, shit is good.
If anyone needs me for the remainder of the day, understand something, I’ll be in surgery, working on portfolios– partaking in things of that nature. You may not understand this, as your feeble brains cannot grasp what I am doing here, but CPST is going the fuck higher. Specific to my cause, so is VXX, TIF, and once I buy it, BID.
There is nothing that will escape the clutches of Dr. Fly in 2012, currently working on a perfect year, in the 15th fucking inning. You bozos clown around near fountain drinks while I’m decanting shit from the 1600’s found at the bottom of oceans.
Everyone is bullish because people take the path of least resistance all the time. This is classic sales 101. Give a person an easy out and they will take it. “The Fly” doesn’t fuck around with easy paths or short cuts. I do the heavy lifting, doing shit because it’s hard. I read long books that look like bibles and I never read instructions–because I can figure the shit out myself.
BEAR WITNESS to the great spectacular, little people from the interworlds. Your lives are about to improve by a factor of 20, just by being around my awesomeness. Pardon the direct tones; I have little desire to waste time today.
Ladies and gents, Chinese burrito stocks are ripping higher today, names like CAAS have no place in the minds of gentlemen. I venture, once again, this is indeud the last leg of the turkey. Chow down and eat heartily for the famine is right around the corner.
Well that correction lasted longer than the others. I enjoyed our 1 hour pullback and look forward to some face ripping to the upside for the remainder of the day.Europe was down about a percent, not us fuckface. We’re throwing jellyfish onto the bears’ faces and surfing on their fucking heads.
I only have a few positions: TIF, TZA, VXX, CPST. Save VXX, they’re all up today, so that makes me a very happy man, indeud. I feel like throwing some hapless skullfuckers down a few flight of stairs to celebrate.
The truth is, I am eyeballing BID and waiting to get in.
In all seriousness, you’re all setting up to get tossed into lit fireplaces. Adding to high beta names here is equal to dousing yourself with kerosene, before going outside to BBQ over an open pit. I will moderate my desires to gamble by watching teevee and figuring out new “trigger words” that annoy Mrs. Fly, pal.
This week there is a trial regarding MLM’s acquisition of VMC, with reference to a non-disclosure agreement between both companies that can strip VMC from MLM forever and ever.
Should MLM lose, shares of VMC will get graped.
As the illusion of sharp recovery spreads, expect auto sales, released on 3/1, to come in robust, due to an easing credit environment, Japanese resurgence and mild winter in the US. On better than expected sales numbers, shares of ORLY, AAP, MGA, BWA, AXL, LEA and DLPH may trade up.
As for me, I am keenly focused on the high end. I started a position in TIF and have my eyes fixed on BID. It is my belief that art and collectibles for the wealthy will continue to rise in value. BID’s position is supreme, sharing an exclusive duopoly with Christies. As prices for fine art and collectibles rise, due to the superfluities of the insanely rich and uncertainty of paper currencies, BID makes a commission off every single sale. They are the Goldman Sachs of the collectibles world.
After BID, I will look to acquire the shares of SKS and LUX, also based upon the arcane spending habits of bored and rich housewives.
Before I get to that, I need to address my burgeoning VXX position. As you know, I’ve been rubbing that shit all over my chest, boasting about its medicinal values whilst punching people in the face with handfuls of seaweed. And, as an aside, I still have an open TZA position.
What I need to happen is this, listen or read this poem very carefully, small pleb:
The markets get fucking crushed, like an accordion being operated by a deranged, sex-mad, cocaine addled Italian.
Things just fall apart quickly, allowing “The Fly” to laugh mightily in bold tones, as you weep in cold, dark showers.
Surprise!, as your positions get blown out by an aggressive margin clerk with expediency, leaving your account in shambles and your personality in rocks and dust.
I step in, with sharp strokes, buying up shit that no one wants, because it is my birth-right to do so.
Surprise! yet again, as I mud-stomp your grave, dancing on it because it’s fun. The world is my sandbox and I have spikes under my shoes.
My double down in VXX was sublime, if I might be so bold as to say so. Volatility bottomed and ripped higher, taking me with it. I ride the volatility, like Reagan stomped on the dreams of incredibly ridiculous liberals. As I write this missive, I am down just 1.2% on my VXX, going “tits up” into the bell.
Secondly, I averaged down on my sinking CPST position. I’ve been waiting for the right time to buy in. There have been large bidders in the name all day. I took advantage of that support and positioned in around $1.14-1.15, reducing my cost to $1.28.
I made one long directional trade today, buying up TIF. Thus far, I am underwater by 0.8% since my purchase.
Bottom line: I am 75% cash, with play positions out there, waddling around the schoolyard. I haven’t invested my money in earnest yet because I feel, as evident by my repetitiveness on the matter, that we are heading lower. As a point in fact, I believe it with every fabric of my DNA, down to my dysbindin-1 gene.
