Garbage Tape

When stocks look good, they get faded. When they look like hell, they melt up again. I’ve elected to remain put with my positions because moving money around has been an exercise in futility. As I speak now, the market looks like shit. Who knows, twenty minutes from now it might look great?

It all comes down to The Fiscal Cliff and how much taxes are going up. Remember, Wall Street hates higher taxes and companies will suspend dividends in order to avoid them. We are looking at a potential albatross for stocks, one that can sink investor sentiment for good. Let’s face it, Wall Street hasn’t been very accommodating to the average investor, with its fucked up flash crashes, accounting fraud and incredibly corrupt IPO practices. Now the government is going to punish the old man in the wheeled chair, who no longer derives income from bank held CDs because rates are 0%, by raising taxes on dividend income!!?!

Holy shit, I can’t think of a worse way to ruin the market. It’s like they’re doing it on purpose, in order to funnel money out of equities back into real estate.

All I know is this: never trust policy makers. All they do it create and destroy bubbles. Make sure you have at least 30% cash before the year ends, maybe sooner. I am not buying a damn thing without selling something first.

TOL just reported better than expected numbers. This is no longer an aberration, but a trend. Expect to see homebuilders and construction material companies beat estimates handedly. If you’re still living in the dark ages of 2008, you’re missing out on one hell of a housing recovery. Go buy some property and quit with the negativity already; you’re making me sick.

Here is some housing data of some of America’s biggest cities. You cannot argue with the data.

And here is the national data.

I’ve been eying a number of stocks to buy, because it’s my belief housing will continue to do well. I’m so fucking conflicted about the economy, it’s ridiculous. On one hand, the numbers are great and expectations look good. On the other, if they remove the mortgage interest deduction, one has to surmise housing is going to take a hit.

Here are my favorites.

TOL, BZH, PHM, SPF, LEN, RYL, KBH, HOV, DHI, MTH, GFF, USG, OC, SHW, VAL, ANGI and Z.

The question is: will the government fuck up the recovery through onerous taxes?

When the Bush tax cuts went into effect, sometime in late 2002 or early 2003 (I’m getting old), the markets blasted the fuck off. Markets loved the idea of lower taxes, especially on dividend income. I can’t help but think, no matter how AWESOME AND AMAZING higher taxes on the rich are, this is going to fuck markets. Look at what companies are doing now, rushing to pay out dividends before the year ends. The tone is slowly changing right before our eyes and it will crest upon the completion of the tax hike agreement.

The only reason we are not fucked now is because of Santa Claus. The markets are benign, almost catatonic, as is customary during the month of December. We haven’t gone down more than 2% in December since 2002.

I can’t help but believe that January is going to bring hell. This is all very reminiscent of 2007, when I was saddled HEAVY SHORT into the New Year. Stocks were making new highs and everyone was high as fuck on the real estate cocaine train–until 2008 came. I don’t know what it is about year changes, but the market is very sentimental about the calendar. Brace yourselves for a very black January, filled with toxic smoke and chards of metal floating throughout your neighborhoods.

I am so convinced about this eventuality, coupled with the inevitability of us going over the fiscal cliff, I may rescind my promises to “never short the market” and just fucking do it. Stocks will quickly dive lower, as soon as 2013 hits because the forecast is grim.

If there is one thing that is a given, from my reservoir of experience, it is to BEHOLD the month of January, for it brings gifts of volatility and excitement.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3zW6uRRn3Q

I’ve been transfixed (literally) with some retail stocks, just sort of staring at them as if they were the black abyss. So many of them are interesting to me, knowing that my fellow American’s possess an innate proclivity to shop till they drop. Look at CWTR and CBK, both left for dead, now “zombying” their ways back up again.

Without further adieu, the following retail stocks are flush with cash, stuck on stupid, trying to turn it around. Because of their enormous cash positions, as a percentage of market cap, any material uptick in business with result in an immediate “liftation” of the shares.

BEBE
CACH
WTSLA
HLYS
KSWS
TRLG
BBW
STLY (not a laggard)
BSET (not a laggard)

Out of those names, I favor BEBE and CACH. But the volume is a bit too thin for me.

ISM numbers were horrendous, so stocks sold off–now everyone is worried about The Fiscal Cliff again. I swear the market wanted to roar this morning, when the futures were +7.

I’m getting lit in VHC and SWHC, but nothing too serious. They both trade weird and have longer term stories to the names, so the short term aberrations need to be taken with a grain of salt. With VHC, I cannot think of a reason why any short seller would want to have exposure to the stock ahead of the court date with Judge Davis and AAPL. Many believe some sort of settlement will be hammered out by then, effectively opening the floodgates to future licensing deals with a wide array of players. If that happens, shorts will regret the day they were born.

SWHC is a play on the 2nd amendment, which many feel could be at risk in two years. Because of that fear, people are stockpiling guns. Go look at the data, it screams of panic-impulse buying. Like any retail stock that has a product that is in heavy demand, SWHC and RGR should reap the rewards through superb quarterly reports.

YELP is ripping again. I kind of regret not buying it at $17. The risk with the stock lies with its valuation, trading 9x sales. It is priced as if someone is going to acquire them, which makes sense for a number of players out there. However, can the company ramp up earnings before that happens, to support this valuation? That is a the billion dollar question.

Lastly, I am long EXK because during the debt ceiling crisis, gold and silver ramped. It’s my belief that the same will happen once we dive off the fiscal cliff.

NOTE: I am still 30% cash.

Both Greek and Spanish bond auctions went better than expected. Don’t even bother trying to think this stuff through. The reason why I have a ‘long only’ mantra is because I am alerted to the fact that central banks want to create a bubble in equity prices. Just like they did with housing, they are doing the same for stocks. Every once in awhile, stocks start to reflect the horrible news and go lower. Then, like magic, some good news gets pulled from a Greek orifice and they trade up.

NEVERTHELESS, it is still my belief that we are going over the fiscal cliff, which should jar markets, until the bozos in Congress hash it out–sending markets roaring again.

For now, I am heavily long VHC, SWHC, EXK and UA.

Interestingly enough, Sam Poser aka “the only analyst who matters in DECK”, just upgraded the fury boots maker with a $65 p/t. Detail will be posted inside The PPT.

For all of you tabbed blogger contestants, I wish you good luck. Elections will be held in the city square this Thursday. The people of iBankCoin will select up to 3 new bloggers, all of whom will be subject to draconian burdens to meet and exceed traffic goals. A new era is here at iBankCoin and it’s an olde one that was once the standard on another orange site, where it all began. Bloggers will be fired with the same careless abandonment as a chain smoker flinging a cigarette butt or an anorexic discards a nightly snack.

If you’re scared to throw your hat in the ring. I understand; most of you are pussies.

NOTE: Just because the market wants to roar, doesn’t mean it will today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJqTU2Tj7Wc

Many of you have emailed me about the open position(s) for writers at iBankCoin. Things are about to change here and I will let you know the ‘rules of the game’, as soon as you finish reading this wasteful sentence.

New blogger(s) will be elected by popular decree on Thursday of this week. If you do not post a blog in the Blogger Network, announcing your interest, you will not be put on the ballot. This means that you must make a pitch as to why people should vote for you. If that means shitting on your competitors, so be it. The first stage of becoming a successful blogger is to grab the attention of your peers.

Can you do that and get elected?

Once elected, you will be given all of the tools to become a blogging phenomenon. Your opinions will be read by the world and all posts will be retweeted through iBankCoin’s corporate Twitter account. HOWEVER, that’s where the fun ends. In order to remain a tabbed blogger, you must maintain a 3% share of traffic, which will be monitored, in true authoritarian fashion, every 3 months. No hard feelings, but if you can’t hold 3%, you will be let go.

Those who successfully maintain 3% share over 6 months might be inducted into a permanent role at the site, upon approval from the iBC board.

Let the games begin, fucked faces.

NOTE: If you do not have a blog in the Blogger Network and want an invite, email me at [email protected]

I know I’ve said it before and it loses it luster after so many proclamations; but I am in the market to acquire fresh blood, to be part of the “tabbed blogger” apparatus. If you want to write for iBC and be part of the most distinguished financial site the world has ever known, throw your hat in the ring and let it be known. If you are part of the blogger network, do a post. If you want to be invited to the blogger network, email [email protected] and we will give you an invite. Or, email me directly at [email protected].

Aside from the prestige, there is a monetary benefit from being part of the club.

NOTE: Readers and outside bloggers alike are welcomed to apply.

UPDATE: New bloggers will be decided by popular decree, a web poll vote for the masses.

They’re trying to trap you. The market always does this before taking a shit on your face. It’s run by sick people, designed to make you poor and divorced. The downside might not even be too bad– but from top to bottom, you’ll go broke if you play it the wrong way.

All you need is to be 200% leveraged at the top of the market and lose 25% on a stock to lose half of everything you have. Then you will get all desperate and shit, sell at the bottom, miss the run up, then buy into another trappy top–leveraged and down another 25%–for the grande fucking finale down to $00.00.

That’s how this shit happens. You can be the smartest fucker in the world and get wiped the fuck out. We’ve all been there, at least those who are crazy enough to trade in such a manner. Most of my clients keep their long term accounts embedded in boring stocks like IBM, KO and KMB. Since that shit is boring, I never talk about it, opting to discuss the aggrerssive portion of my strategy, because you’re all degenerate OTB guys–otherwise you wouldn’t bother surfing the web for stock tips.

You want a fucking tip, some hot stock advice? Stop listening to assholes on the internet about financial matters. First of all, 99% of the people you read online aren’t professionals. They’re self taught and for the most part winging it fucktards with 10 grand in their online Zeeco accounts. That’s not to say they can’t be great–but it’s rare. Also, can everyone please stop using war as an anecdote for investing? That’s the nerdiest shit in the world. One guy is getting his arm blown off by a grenade, the other just lost $553 in a bad WNR trade–hardly a comparative analogy.

PFFFFFFFFFF.

I don’t adhere to traditional rules. I don’t fucking like them. Stop losses at -10%, why? Sometimes a stock is best picked when down, not running higher. I said it once and I’ll say it again: investing is an art. You have to be creative and find ways to make money, some orthodox, others completely insane and risky.

It’s a crazy goat fucker market and as much as I hate it and want to stab it in the face, I will never stop trading it.

I believe many of you hard left wingers get too defensive when I talk shit about Obama. Clearly I hate all politicians, some more than others of course. I felt Bush was the worst President the world had ever known and now I think Obama is from Kenya. Business as usual at The House of Fly, hating on all politicians since 1976.

But I’m not interested in policies that will help create jobs. I am not concerned about the GDP or anything else that doesn’t affect me. Quite the contrary. I only care about the insolvency of the entire fucking country–because THAT will have a sticking impact on me–forcing me back into a world of grit and murder.

Let’s speak plainly, fucked of the face. If we don’t cut back on the fucking welfare, in 10 years the national debt will be in excess of $25 trillion, not including additional expenditures for our national penchant for wars and bailouts. To service that kind of debt, even with these low rates, we are looking at $500 billion in interest alone. UNSUSTAINABLE.

This is not our problem. I get very upset over financial malfeasance. I have never witnessed retarded incompetence like this and it’s happening in slow motion, BACKED by 47% of you fucking idiots.

In many regards, the country deserves what’s coming. But I figured I might as well voice an opinion on these matters, because it is a life and death crossroad.

Nevertheless, I will not allow my disdain and hatred for my local politician detract from my coin banking ways. Instead of boycotting or shorting stocks, I will bang my cane into the pavement, declaring “tomfoolery” when watching CNBC. December is almost here and I had a very good year. I am exercising discretion because it would be stupid of me to risk too much with so little time left in the year. Also, I am well aware that the national debt is NOT at a tipping point and Ben Bernanke is firmly in charge of the markets, stoned out on 8-balls of blow.

In short, the wall of worry that is “The Fiscal Cliff” will create volatility. We will dive lower by 2,000 points if a bad deal is made, lose 1,000 immediately if no deal is made–and we will rise by 500 upon successful completion of an acceptable can kick. Until this shit is resolved, I will remain defensive.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FniHgiyaTY