Exceedingly Bearish Atop this Mountain

We’ve climbed a long way from the April lows. The Dow is above 13,000 and investors are feeling good about themselves, with marked exception to those still trapped inside YELP. Nevertheless, it is your duty, as gentlemen of society, to take profits and spend money freely. It is your constitutional right.

Although I regret selling CTRP, seeing it go ‘full retard’ to the upside without helmet. I made 15% for my troubles. One cannot lament over missed gains.

Here we are just a few months until the elections. On one ticket we have Karl Marx, who is interested in throwing the upper middle class into government fire hydrants–head first. On the other, we have “medicine” also known as austerity. It may bode well for the general economy in the long run; but in the short term, medicine tastes like shit.

To my cocaine gorillas in the jungle, boxing skeletons into dust, I bid you farewell. “The Fly” will be back when things cool down. For now, I am fleeing this resort before the fires of the jungle fossilize its inhabitants.

Fuck this horseshit.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsM0jxGyUbE

Let’s lay the ground work, shall we?

We all know the markets have been going up due to QE, right? Furthermore, we all know the economy isn’t in the shithouse because of Bernanke, correct? The Fed provided liquidity for the economy and the markets. It’s your local fuckhead Congressman who spent your grandchildren’s money on hookers and military contracts. Understand something, Ben Bernanke is an American hero. He is the only one who had your back during the bleak moments of 2008.

But that was war time and this is peace. Ben is now vilified as a demon, BY YOUR CORRUPT Congressman, because he doesn’t want to take the blame. This is typical Washington bullshit. Your government does not work for you. You work for them.

Romney just said he would NOT reappoint Bernanke if elected. Moreover, he said QE2 did nothing and he does not support QE3. Got that?

Good.

Clearly, Romney doesn’t want stocks to trade up because he wants Obama out. This is the republican game plan. Be on guard for more of this horseshit, as the election draws near. Back in 2000, I remember Bush stoking the same fucking flames to derail Gore. It was not a pleasant trading environment, to say the least.

Frankly, I can’t stand this sort of political bullshit. I loathe politics and feel they’re all bastards, spawned from motherless whores, here on Earth to hurt the weak. Despite Obama’s abysmal “track record”, I will not be voting for anyone this election. I don’t have faith in the two party system and would prefer to see the capitol aflame by Americans wielding pitch forks–before I participate in this shame of a democracy again.

I bought 100,000 HDGE to hedge my longs.

I spoke with “The Devil” today and we went over the current state of affairs. He’s never been so convinced of lower prices, looking for a “Minsky Moment.” Essentially, he believes the decrease in volatility/spike in complacency is the market’s biggest headwind now. We are setting up for a large downside reversal and no one will see it coming, except Scott Bleier of course.

I’ve taken liberties to raise more cash, booking a 12% gain in DMND. It was nice playing with the ideologues who swear on bibles, but I have money to make and don’t have time to play games with you. Chalk up another win for Senor Tropicana (African jungle music).

I’m tempted to buy JMBA and PSUN, both small cappers with interesting turn around stories. However, I am exhibiting patience on a monumental scale. After all, someone has to set a good example for the children out there reading iBankCoin. Why don’t you infants grab a bib and BEHOLD what I am about to serve you?

Look for the dollar to trade up in the short term, as it is bound by certain parameters, most expressly communicated through the harmony of mathematics (SHOMP).

I will be taking on a hedge today.

UPDATE: I bought HDGE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfSJwK_V3Bs

Macy’s furniture is an abomination. Two consecutive times, those cocksuckers come to my house with damaged furniture, making me send that shit back to the chinese slave factory it came from. Frankly, aside from some domestic North Carolina wood, the quality of the furniture in this country sucks. Have you ever been to a Raymour and Flannigan? Geez, what a fucking disaster.

Speaking of disasters, stocks are measurably lower, following Europe down the sewer pipe. Italian and Spanish yields are higher and TLT is spiking. None of this is good for stocks.

Believe it or not, my largest position, post sales, is now NFLX. I have half my book in cash and the patience of an elephant high on morphine.

Expect lower stocks prices in the near term. I hate to lose money on 50% of my assets. However, I am in a fairly good position to buy dips, especially margin liquidations, being +25% for the year. I’m in no rush to test greatness. It comes naturally to me.

In short, DMND and NFLX are buys, especially on dips. I have a great deal of money, waiting for reallocation. I’m in the market for ideas now and will make it my business to acquire some. But a correction is coming, perhaps something a bit more severe than anyone is predicting now. There are tax issues in this country that need to be dealt with and an election that draws nothing but apathy from the American populous.

Beware of the September surprise.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOzesduLyrI

A man who calls himself “Holdtherisk” broached a very interesting subject in the Blogger Network (@ibc_bn). It reminded me of a quote from the late Andrew Carnegie, who incidentally is one of my favorite old school stewards of wealth and wisdom. He said “Concentrate your energies, your thoughts and your capital. The wise man puts all his eggs in one basket and watches the basket.” Carnegie said he borrowed that phrase from another great, Mark Twain. Either way, it’s an interesting subject to talk about, with regards to investment philosophies.

I must say, when I was starting out as a young investor, all I did was swing for the fences. I exhibited ZERO discipline. I was like this guy, but with stocks. At the time, my clients loved me–because I was a fucking genius in a raging bull market. I had no fear and nothing to lose, other than other people’s money. I didn’t quite understand the philosophy behind “managing risk” and my returns reflected that.

Back in 2000, I lost a large 7 figure account. He was a CFO of a publicly traded company and could have been a monster client for me, in terms of gathering referrals. Do you know why he left me?

I made him too much money.

I scared him away with my erratic investment style. This was a man of great deportment and prestige. He didn’t need some young 20 something rolling dice at his behest.

If you’re in the business of managing money for other people, listen to me very carefully. You’re never gonna get big playing bullshit stocks for small rips. You will get pigeon holed as “the crazy, fuck you money” guy and will never earn full trust from your clients. In that regard, Andrew Carnegie was a fucking moron.

However, there is something to be said about self directed investors, willing and able to take risk, trying to make it big. I find nothing wrong with it and encourage you to do so, only if you can afford to lose it all. Over the years, I’ve lost immense amounts of money, gambling in oversized positions or fucking around with options. A few years ago, using The PPT overbought/oversold algorithms, I turned 100k into a million dollars. The next year that money was cut in half, stabilized, then I took it out of the market.

Why did I take the money out?

Well, for me, it was a distraction. My business is to manage money for others, not for myself. The volatility of my casino account became a distraction, so I eliminated it. I still have long term investments; but I am sure none of you are interested in boring stuff like that.

If you understand the risks and have an idea that you are passionate about, I say fuck it–go for it. However, if you are an old, crusty man, with limited resources–I forbid you from gambling like a degenerate OTB guy. As for you pikers trying to make it big in the business, get on the phone, smile and dial, and raise some fucking assets. Quit trying to be Gordon Gekko and get to work.

You have no idea how hard it was to do nothing today. I spent a few hours watching the old classic “State of Grace”, starring Jakegint’s favorite actor– Sean Penn. After that, I believe I fell asleep. But I am not sure. The end result is a wasted day, as stocks reversed course and impaled shorts to the fucking wall. Two former large positions of mine, EXK and CTRP, both screamed higher. Yet, I remained calm, in the face of undeniable tomfoolery and accomplished nothing.

Bravo (golf clap).

This much is certain: I am buying more DMND tomorrow. That fucker has $21-23 written all over it. Also, LCC is my favorite non-position, which is at the top of the watch list too.

Bottom line: TLT blasted higher and no one gave a shit. The junior traders running the turrets must’ve been busy eating doritos or some shit because stocks closed the session looking good, save YELP of course.

Because I have 50% of my book in cash, I am tempted to buy everything. Most of you pikers can’t hold cash in your accounts because, well, you’re pikers. But I have a mindset of a champion and heart of a lion when it comes to these sort of things.

Early this morning, the bitches JVA and JMBA tried to lure me into their whore house. I said “no thank you M’am (sp?) I am happily married, so fuck off.” Then that Weinstein guy left a comment about DMND trading down 30 cents on less than 100k shares traded. Again, I was tempted to double the trading volume and answer his stupidity with a 75 cent spike in the stock, but I refrained. BZH, KKD, LCC and NFLX offered me their wares; again, I said no.

I drew a line in the sand and said “as long as TLT is up, I will remain sidelined.” It’s fairly straight forward and easy to follow. TLT represents “de-risk”, a harbinger of doom and gloom for the boom in stocks. When money pours into bonds, you should be alerted. Plus anyway, no one wants to fuck around with heavy equity positions heading into the fall. Quit fooling yourselves, fucking jackasses.

“The Fly” is to finance blogging what Picasso was to canvas.

Off to eat those sandwiches: turning off my computer.

I love YELP. Anyone reading this site for more than a month knows I’ve been a huge supporter of the company, having been a shareholder–enduring the whipsaw roller coaster of the fucktard. However, after seeing the Thiel situation and the unbelievable catastrophes in ZNGA, GRPN and ANGI, I am done with the sector. If we’ve learned anything in recent weeks, insiders of these social media plays, the Vulture Capitalists, will not hold stock. They are sellers at any price.

Well, YELP’s lock-up period expires on 8/28. Both Seminole Capital Management and Cupps owns a combined 20%+ of YELP. I doubt those dicksuckers will resist the temptation of hitting the bid, whenever given the opportunity. After all, it is “their job” to do so.

The entire social media sector is a mess and I wouldn’t consider touching any of them until valuations compressed to 5 times sales. That’s another 50% drop for Facebook, just in case you home gamers aren’t paying attention.

Moving on, I think stocks will trade lower today. Europe is weak and we’re due for a little consolidation. I am not a buyer heading into September, even though the problems of the world appear to be “solved.” Nevertheless, this still is a long only tape, as I feel betting against the central banks is a suckers bet.

The stock of Facebook should not be bought and Thiel’s reputation is a dunk shot short sale.

Cramer goes in on Thiel again, nailing it here big time.

Well, I picked the right day to sell. I kept a few stocks around to entertain me during the slow, melancholy, days of summer. I had a plan and followed through on it. There is no looking back now.

The PPT nailed the miners, once again– allowing me to book an 8%+ profit in EXK. All in all, the summer of 2012 turned out to be a delightful (no homo) one for me, bucking the seasonal trends in the face of alarming grotesquery.

Now I wouldn’t go short here for a very specific reason. Bonds have been sold, without regard for the retards who own them. Although TLT reversed higher today and is being bought up by miscreants clad in burlap undergarments, the trend is lower. If you look back in time, you will notice that when TLT drops more than 5% in a month, it tends to follow through to the downside the very next month. If that’s the case, stocks will move higher again, ignoring cat calls from the unwashed to sell into the elections.

In my professional opinion, the best course of action is to go to cash, but keep some longs around for sport and leisure.

I intend to press the envelope in my DMND long and will buy more, but only on dips. I am waiting for the Weinsteins of the world to capitulate and fess their unbridled ignorance. At that moment in time, I will sell my DMND position and dance on their fucking graves.

A great man once said “Never fuck with the guy in the time machine or space capsule.” I strongly advise you to learn the lessons of others who’ve made such egregious errors and trade accordingly.

I am 50% cash, looking for opportunity, as always.