Long Sand Ahead of the OPEC Meeting

I am long SLCA anyways. I added to my fucking position, ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC meeting. At some point in the not-so-distant-future, those motherfuckers are gonna be visited by space ships and those space ships are gonna send out space aliens who will then tell them “cut production, else we’ll vaporize your continent, unleash dinosaurs on your dumb asses.”

When that surprise cut happens, you will regret the day you were born, leading up to the day you decided to sell short crude.

In it to win, or die trying.

I also added to my SHAK position.

Any interest or no?

Just checking.

Fucking fuckers.

Does anyone else feel this way too? Those little fuckers are out there, getting their stock bid up, all the while the market is being driven into the dirt. Fellow tech names, like MU, are humiliated on a daily basis, and the spoiled brats at SNDK want an “all cash” offer near its all-time high?

How about no? How about, instead of WDC buying you, they buy nothing. Your shares sink into a fucking tar pit, with the rest of my positions, and you sit there for the next 3-5 years, then go bankrupt?

How about that?

The NASDAQS are getting crushed. Biotech and tech, hammered. This was supposed to be the great breakout week. Instead, we got more of the same bullshit.

Consumer Reports are electrocuting TSLA shareholders. Hillary Clinton is upset because there is one industry (biotech) left in the union that hasn’t ruined shareholders, so she’s writing letters to the fucking FDA/FTC. And, gold and silver are rallying, end of days style.

Everything is just peachy.

$DB is out with a note, basically telling people to stop reading Zerohedge and bugging the fuck out by selling good stocks in a good economy.

In my view, there is a big disconnect between the current narrative in both equity and rates markets and the actual economic data. This economy is stronger than its reputation and for some reason many investors want to hold onto the 2009 story of “the economy is not good”. We are likely to reach full capacity over the coming 12 months and that is why Yellen, Fischer, and Dudley continue to talk about liftoff in 2015.

There are dark forces out there, spoiling the mood for everyone else. It reminds me of this book I am reading now, which is the single best investment book of all-time: 28 Years in Wall St. In it, the venerable Henry Clews discusses the life of a Charles F. Woerishoffer, who was the bear of the late 19th century. Like Chanos or the fuckers at Citron, he has a powerful effect on the stocks he targeted and brought about a somber mood in the market. In effect, he and his ilk purported the idea that there was zero value in all corporations, especially when it suited them for profit. He made a fortune on the short side, but died at the young age of 43–likely due to Satan calling him back to hell for a little R &R.

It’s always easier to destroy and believe all is lost. Perhaps the Nazis at DB are right and things aren’t that fucked. Hence, there is a legitimate cause for optimism, aside from the prospects for MOAR QE.

Certain factions of the GOP want to destroy the country, in order to save it. Treasury Secretary Lew is warning markets that we need to raise the debt ceiling by November 3rd, or else.

Or else what, some of you new traders ponder? How about this?

In finance and investing, Black Monday 2011 refers to August 8, 2011, when US and global stock markets crashed[1] following the Friday night credit rating downgrade by Standard and Poor’s of the United States sovereign debt from AAA, or “risk free”, to AA+.[2] It was the first time in history the United States was downgraded.[3] Moody’s issued a report during morning trading which said their AAA rating of U.S. credit was in jeopardy, this after issuing a negative outlook in the previous week.[4]

By market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 634.76 points (-5.55%) to close at 10,809.85, making it the 6th largest drop of the index in history.[5] Black Monday 2011 followed just one trading day behind the 10th largest drop of the Dow Jones Index, a 512.76 (-4.31%) drop on August 4, 2011.

The last time we tried to purposely default on our obligations, our credit rating was cut and our markets literally crashed.

Bear in mind, on paper, none of this should happen. It’d be retarded if it did, since it’s entirely self inflicted. But, there are morons amongst us, men clad in the roughest burlap ever, who have designs to fuck America, in order to save her.

Since Wall St tend to have the attention span of a gnat and could only focus on “right fucking now”, I thought I’d remind you of what’s looming around the bend.

Futs soft, Europe lower, gold flat, oil higher, dollar lower

Higher
Earnings: TACO +13.6% (must be all them illegals), TTS +10.7%, SONC +5.7%, IHG +5.5%, GIG +4.3%, HSTM +3.7%, FLEX +3.1%, CE +1.6%, VZ +1.6%, SAP +1.5%, VLRS +0.8%, TRV +0.6%

TMH +21.9% (AmSurg (AMSG) confirms proposal to acquire TeamHealth for $71.47/share, or ~$7.8 bln), SNDK +8.7% (WDC buyout offer rumors)), YUM +6% (to split into two disgusting companies)

Miners are the shit this morning: AU +3.1%, IAG +2.1%, GOLD +2%, ABX +1.6%, GDX +1.4%, GG +1.3%, SLW +1.1%

ERII +135% (signed a 15 yr deal with $SLB), ONE +42.5% (sold its Campus Labs data analytics business to Leeds Equity Partners, for $91 mln in cash), CRBP +34.1% (FDA nonsense), RXII +10.8% (drugs are good), KITE +3.5% (some bullshit deal), ATRA +1.9% (more FDA shit), SKX +1.7% (mystery)

Analyst jargon: RCPI +8.4% (initiated with a crack at Maxim Group; tgt $4), WTW +6.1% (upgraded to Oprah Fat from Underweight at Barclays), TSEM +5.1% (initiated with a Heroin at Drexel Hamilton), RESN +3.1% (initiated with a Cocaine at Drexel Hamilton), BLUE +2.3% (initiated with a Doesn’t Suck at Oppenheimer; $162 tgt), GOLD +2% (upgraded to Cool kids from Nerd at Deutsche Bank), CPE +1.7% (initiated with a God Like Status at Canaccord Genuity), ADRO +0.7% (initiated with an H.A.M. at Oppenheimer), PFE +0.7% (upgraded to Real Talk from Market Perform at Cowen)

Lower
Shameful earnings: RMBS -16.5%, HOG -8.6%, HXL -8.3%, VAR -5.7%, IBM -4.4%, IEX -2.2%, WIBC -1.4%, WWW -1.2%, ETN -1.1%, SIX -0.8%, ELS -0.6%, LMT -0.5%

WDC -1.9% (Bloomberg reporting co is in discussion to waste lots of money on SNDK)

Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: TOT -1.2%, BP -1%, RDS.A -0.8%

NEOS -13.7% (FDA hates them), ZGNX -7.4% (FDA stuff), MSB -4.9% (somehow CLF is fucking them), SGY -1.4% (shelf life)

Analyst nonsense: ENPH -7.2% (downgraded to Complete Shit from Hold at Deutsche Bank), AZN -1.7% (downgraded to Whorish Bad at Credit Suisse), VRX -2.2% (downgraded to Better off Dead from Sector Outperform at CIBC), CALM -1.1% (downgraded to Egg Farts from Overweight at a boutique firm), TS -0.8% (downgraded to Switzerland from Germany at Citigroup), DO -0.8% (initiated with a Worth Nothing at Citigroup), PH -0.7% (downgraded to Meh from Buy at Citigroup)

So much for state backed security.

Sinosteel Co. will delay an interest payment due Tuesday on 2 billion yuan ($314.5 million) of 5.3 percent notes that mature in 2017, according to a statement on Chinabond’s website Monday. The firm delayed payment as it plans to back the securities with stock of its unit Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co., and that may affect issues related to interest payment, it said without elaborating. The failure to pay interest on time constitutes a default, according to Industrial Securities Co., Haitong Securities Co. and China Merchants Securities Co

Sinosteel has more than 100 billion yuan in debt. This was somewhat expected. Nevertheless, it highlights an inportant point that nothing in China is sacred, aside from plastic rice and BIDU, which is why I am long.

On that topic, nothing is more important than search for the development of a society, molding an entire country’s intellect, providing unprecedented access to information. What China did to Google (blocking them in favor of BIDU), other countries will copy. Google is only sacred within our borders. Once other tech companies start to lobby their host countries against GOOG, other BIDU’s and YNDX’s will materalize.

Sovereignty and nationalism is the ultimate moat.

People are making a big deal about Saudi Arabia tapping the debt markets for $32 billion big ones today. Before we all start feeling bad for House Saud, let’s remember that the greatest transfer of wealth has just occurred, from west to east, courtesy of the fucktards in our State Dept. who decided that the best course of action to tackle the terrorist problem was middle east regime change.

They (House Saud) were the morons who decided to attempt to break the backs of the good oil men in the Bakken Shale, by refusing–repeatedly–to cut production. It truly was a sight to behold, coming from an organization that was hell bent on higher prices…always. Then, all of a sudden, amidst a 30% drop in crude, they refused to cut production in favor of retaining market share.

Morons.

Now they have 326 million barrels of crude in reserve, the most since 2002. Economic growth has collapsed from +10% to +3%. They’re delaying payments to contractors, and are entirely fucked, in the streets, without shoes.

And this:

“It’s hard to hold back from boosting spending when oil is on the rise, but very hard to cut when oil prices fall,” Simon Williams, chief economist for central and eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa at HSBC Holdings Plc, said in e-mailed comments. “Cuts are coming — the budget deficit is too large to ignore and pretend it’s business as usual.”

Saudi Arabia will cut production, sometime within the next 6 months. Oil stocks will fucking surge like beasts out of hell, or bats out of a cave, then everyone will fade oil–making a mockery of the little men who walk around with circles on their heads.

There is an OPEC meeting Wednesday. No one expects them to cut production, which is why it’s such a great trade. Oil stocks are rangebound anyway. I love long oil ahead of any OPEC meeting for the next six months.

Fucking monarchy in the 21st century. Give me a break.

Top oil pick: SLCA

It’s natural for us to want to run freely without restrictions, behave in shameful ways, succumbing to our basest insticts of depravity, gluttony and murderous rages.

A great man once said “any fool can make a million. The trick is to keep it.”

Let that 19th century victorian knowledge sink in for a minute.

This isn’t a market without risk. As a matter of fact, it’s filled with nothing but risk, from oil to tech to biotech, it’s wrought with grave dangers that are liable to come out of the $BLUE to wreck your morning commute.

My biggest loss in a decade occured last year in FEYE. I allowed a massive position turn from up 15% to down 35%. It was a detrimental blow to my business, reputation, and peace of mind. I am still recovering from it.

At the very root of my mistake was hubris and permitting past success offer me a false sense of security.

Listen to me. Nothing is promised, not even tonight’s dinner. I have my thumb exposed to the market winds like no one else. The winds are easterly (Bleak House) and this reprieve is temporary.

Take profits, cut losses short, stop using golden aged thinking to mold your future.

During the last chapter of this great blogging experient, I would’ve considered this a success if I taught you just that. I knew a man who threw away $3 million in one stock because he felt it would go higher. Market’s don’t care about your feelings.

Stocks are soft today, thanks in large part to the commodity related industries getting drilled into the ground.

I find myself inoculated from any semblance of pullbacks, heavily long BIDU–the great chinese lying company. I’d love to make money in American companies, stocks that attract the fattest amongst us (WTW); but I’ve been unable to find respite outside of the oil and gas space. Those stocks are being liquidated today, without honors.

All that aside, the daunting nature of climbing walls and hopping over barbed wired fences: this market is going the fuck higher.

LISTEN TO ME: the month of October ends with your face filled with candy corns, happy as a goat in a field of grass, long equities because Le Fly motivated you. Fuck your inhibitions and lack of courage. These are the times to take advantage of markets. I just liquidated the rest of my UNFI position. It served me well, having made 8% in the past few weeks in it. But it’t time to move on, so I added to my long bet on Randall J Kirk, via XON.

Any company that intends to genetically modify cats is a company I am in league with.