“The Fly” Wins Again

Just shut up already, you bunch of blue beard savages soiling these great halls with your presence.

Throughout the year of our Lord, 2015, “The Fly” bobbed and weaved, crafted a work of art of a different sort for the reader class novice piker investor. You were beholden to market mastery of a different varietal, a story of a man trying to hold on to dear life. His gains were very bountiful in the beginning; but the market tested him, over and over again–attempting to vanquish him and smash his cranium about the rocks and the sea.

I stand before you a victorious man, one who has weathered to storm of perfidy and has come out a better man for it.

My largest positions aren’t moving higher today, but sprinting. The commodity run that I envisioned, through sagely intercourse with logic and imagination, has produced fruits by which I am now eating before you.

PAH, FCX and SN are all making my pagan Xmas very joyous. Very joyous, INDEUD.

To celebrate today’s triumph, I’ve taken liberties to buy more SN and FCX.

Don't Bet Against Me from iBC on Vimeo.

This guy is a super asshole for spewing out a prediction like that. It has #timestamp written all over it. Believe you me, no one wants an up market more than me. There is nothing that I want more, than to toss bowling balls filled with dynamite sticks, at the bedlamites in the Zerohedge comments section. However, I’d have to be clinically insane to get myself dressed up in suit and tie, splash on some of my best cologne, then tell people from teevee land that the market had a 96% chance of being up next year, based on some hare brained assumptions.

And they’re set to surge here as well. Mining stocks are enjoying their biggest rally in 10 weeks, over in Europe. It looks like we’re gonna have ourselves a run of the mill “death to shorts” Santa Claus squeeze here too.

Aluminum for delivery in three months climbed 0.8 percent to $1,519 a metric ton by 11:07 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange after reaching $1,524.50 a ton, the highest since Nov. 27.

Here are some heavily shorted mining and/or steel names to watch into this melt up.

X -65% ytd

TCX -72% ytd

CENX -82% ytd

FCX -71% ytd

CLF -77% ytd

AKS -62% ytd

JOY -70% ytd

Lots of jargon regarding euro-crude correlation, seasonal trends, investor despondency etc.

Although I cringe at the idea of ignoring the mountains of oil and gas debt coming due in 2017 and beyond, I am somewhat open to the idea of a Jedi light-saber strike to the faces of oil shorts might be a likely scenario.

This is a gem.

I am sure somewhere in the bible, the sages who wrote it told us to eat Christmas trees for medicinal purposes. Nevertheless, to eschew from drinking camel milk and urine is just plain racist of you. Embrace the holy book and all of its teachings. Sop from the tits of camels and deliver his nourishing excretions for your bodily benefits. BEHOLD the camel in all of its glory.

The Muslim holy book contains quotes from the prophet Muhammad and it says: ‘Some people of Ukl or Uraina tribes came to Medina (in Saudi Arabia) and the climate did not suit them.
‘So the Prophet ordered them to go to the herd of (milk) camels and to drink their milk and urine (as medicine).

‘So they went as directed and afterwards they became healthy.’

The only problem with this tale of joy and wonder is the owner of this specialty health shoppe was pissing in bottles and falsely labeling it as camel piss drink. The House of Saud have confiscated 70 bottles of fraudelent camel urine beverage, much to the delight of honest and legitimate vendors of the ancient elixir.

There were over 37,000 deals in 2015, amounting to $4.2 trillion. Both Goldman and Morgan Stanley managed about $1.4 trillion in transactions, making 2015 the best year ever.

“We are in the late stages of the M&A cycle but there is still room left to run,” said Gary Posternack, global head of mergers & acquisitions of Barclays Plc in a phone interview. “Next year, we will see a lower value of deals overall but probably a higher number of deals. This year has been dominated by the mega deals and it’s likely that will slow down.”

“There has been a spasm of very large, uncontroversial deals that have either been done, or looked at and decided against. The number of that type of deals will likely fall going into next year,” said Peter Tague, global head of M&A at Citigroup Inc., “but the biggest markets are typically underpinned by a lot of mid-sized deals — and there are plenty of those ahead.”

Good news, right?

Maybe not. The previous two top M&A years were 2002 and 2007. We all know what happened in 2008. Deals were also expensive–the most expensive ever, with acquirers paying more than 1.68x sales.

Nevertheless, the merger and acquisition departments at both Goldman and Morgan are going to be enjoying grandiose bonuses this holiday season. We can all find solace in knowing that, as we barrel into the final days of trade in a cloud of uncertainty.

Don’t worry yourself, lads. When the market dropped in December of 2002, it rebounded sharply…in April of 2003.

I remember it like yesterday. The recession was debilitating. We’d see stores boarded up and closed near Grand Central. NYC was a melancholy place and the stock market was the devil, reincarnate. Then all of that changed in April of 2003. It might’ve had something to do with war, or government stimulus. I cannot remember the exact details. But the foreboding nature of a December drop isn’t something to take lightly.

Sure, all isn’t lose yet. We can still squeak out a few percent to make this pig look good. But if we give back today’s rally, we’ll most likely end the month with the largest December decline since 2002.

Seventy one percent of stocks moved higher today and I made some coin in VRX, PAH, SHAK and other niceties. Barring a horrific reversal of fortune, I will end 2015 a champion of plus 15% or more. It’s nothing to be boastful of, since I am still licking the wounds of 2014.

Good day.

Our good friends in OPEC have finally accomplished the hard fought task of pushing down the price of Brent crude to parity with WTI.

This, of course, is bearish for domestic refiners and even worse for producers, as the cheap price of Brent lures our refiners into importing Brent, as opposed to buying domestically.

Market “experts” feel this relationship will resolve itself, once WTI supply builds at Cushing, OK, forcing WTI lower. What these experts aren’t concerned about is the pervasive and concerted effort of foreign producers to break the backs of U.S. producers, specifically in the shales.

The only way to accomplish a glut in WTI supplies is for our refiners to opt for Saudi oil over domestic.

How very joyous.

Today’s 100 point move in the Dow is a bit misleading, as only 55% of stocks are higher thus far. I wouldn’t put much credence into a large Santa Claus rally. However, like I said the other day, all of the conditions are present for a face ripping commodity driven rally.

Even our good friend, The Devil, is bullish on oil stocks here.

So, using some of my available cash, I bought into a distressed oil and gas name: SN.

I made a small fortune on SN in the beginning of 2015, and I hope to repeat past success now– into the dirt of the very worst commodity rout since Jim Rogers lost his bow tie in the jungles of Africa.

Bear with me.

The market isn’t a friendly environ. As a matter of fact, its been downright diabolical. Buying into SN here is almost gambling–but more of a calculated bet that the vast majority of oil bears have cleaned house and might look to cover their shorts ahead of what could be a repeat of early 2015.

Good luck with those dynamite sticks.

CNBC reported that Twitter filed for a patent for a drone. According to the company, this drone could be controlled by users.

Why?

How?

Imagine yourself in NYC, fighting with 5 million people to control a fucking drone with your phone.

When asked to comment on this fuckery, the company replied, rather smugly, “Drone Selfies.”

Can someone tell these fuckheads the stock is at new lows, the balance sheet looks like shambles, and this so called drone isn’t going to do anything but piss people off?

As an aside, Twitter drones might be rather useful for the lads in ISIS.