The Credit Crisis is Over

Dick Bove, Bank Analyst, Punk Ziegel

“Buy the banks. They’re all yummy, down at these levels.”

Unlike the heathen “Juice,” “The Fly” is a God fearing man. So, out of respect for good Friday, I will refrain from using obscenities (even though God could care less about such minor offenses).

Apparently, the ungodly folks at S&P downgraded both [[LEH]] and [[GS]] today, citing a “rough” environment.

I’ll say.

“Market volatility and the possibility of further weakening of economic activity may result in a more substantial fall in revenues,” possibly resulting in one-notch downgrades, said Paul Coughlin, S&P’s head of corporate and government ratings, on a conference call.

Actions by the central bank “alleviate much of the concerns that we have about near-term liquidity conditions,” S&P analyst Scott Sprinzen said. “However, we still view the environment as rough near-term for the five broker-dealers.”

S&P said Goldman has very strong liquidity, but that its emphasis on trading and “aggressive” risk appetite expose it to potential for “major missteps.” It also said Lehman has a stable base of funding and strong fundamentals, but could suffer “severely” if the market turns against it.

Sprinzen said Goldman, Merrill and Morgan Stanley also have a “clear advantage” over Lehman, the largest U.S. mortgage underwriter, because they are more diversified.

Let me just say this: LEH is a quadruple sell, with hot mustard on it. Anyone who knows Wall Street understands and acknowledges freely, Lehman is a 2nd rate “high end” bucket shop—with losers at the helm and in the engine room.

Anyone care for a 13 week treasury?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1-WW5MsyNU&feature=related 450 300]

Wow! Let me try to explain how I see things and what I did.

This is not normal trading behavior. The death of [[BSC]] is not supposed to start a mind boggling rally in financials. I think [[JPM]] was up 24% for the week.

During the week, we saw a big decline in commodities. For the bulls, this is a very good development. If it holds, it will help improve margins from restaurants to trannies—down to the bagel operators: [[BAGL]].

However, over the last 6 months, the way to play spikes is to fade them. I see no reason to alter this course of action, despite what Dick Bove has to say.

Going into today, I had zero exposure to [[SKF]] and very little in [[SRS]]. However, after today’s monster move, I felt comfortable buying both, betting investors will take profits, early next week.

My guess, the window dressing maniacs will not want to show financial holdings on their sheets.

As for the market:

It is possible we can run up to 12,500 or 12,750. But, calling a bottom is fucking absurd.

Remember, those who think this is the bottom believe the market will be down less than 10% this year. Do you really believe the market, considering all the fucked news, will be down less than 10% for the year?

Come on!

For the day, I lost 1.8%, which is nothing. I spit on minor losses.

Towards the end of the day, I redoubled my shorting efforts in [[LEH]], at 49.

And, I covered some of my [[MOS]] short, in order to raise cash for LEH and other things.

Have a great easter, fuckface.

I covered some of my [[MOS]] short, buying 1,000 @ $92.15.

I sold short 2,000 [[LEH]] @ $49.10.

Disclaimer: If you sell short LEH because of this post, your broker dealer will go under, without Fed assistance. And, you may lose money.

Developing…

I bought 2,000 [[SRS]] @ $98.94, 2,000 [[SMN]] @ $43.30 and 1,000 [[SKF]] @ $106.68.

UPDATE: I bought 2,000 [[SKF]] @ $107.34.

Disclaimer: If you buy any of the above stocks because of this post, Bernanke will cut rates this Sunday, once again. And, you may lose money.

Why does everyone attempt to call bottoms or tops? Every fucking time the market spikes, all the assholes come out of the woodwork, exclaiming “this is it. The bottom is in.”

Retarded analysts, like Dick Bove, make absurd market calls, emphatically declaring the bottom in banks.

Look you, it’s not important to know when the bottom is in or not. What’s vital to your account statement is the proficiency of your asset management. Instead of guessing or throwing dice at stocks, invest with caution.

For every spike in [[C]], there is a “homo hammer of death” in [[CIT]].

In my opinion, all of the headline risk is to the downside. Taking long positions is okay. Just do it in moderation and do not be tricked by the assholes who have a vested interest in getting you back to the casino.

Keep in mind, we have yet to see significant job losses. If you think times are tough now for the mortgage industry, wait until national unemployment is at 6.5%, like it is in California.

I do not have an interest in playing bounces, or 1-2 day moves. For now, I am gearing myself to take advantage of the negative headwinds. If you think about it, the only time the market spikes is when the Fed intervenes.

Eventually, the Fed halo will vanish, as it did in 2002.

In short, the volatility is insane, making it nearly impossible for neutral swing traders to make money.

With my money, until I see significant blood in the streets, not this paper cut shit, I will keep my bias to the downside.

Top pick: cash

Fuck “ag plays.” [[MOS]] will die, without honour [sic].

Continue to go about your sub-par existence.