Why does everyone attempt to call bottoms or tops? Every fucking time the market spikes, all the assholes come out of the woodwork, exclaiming “this is it. The bottom is in.”
Retarded analysts, like Dick Bove, make absurd market calls, emphatically declaring the bottom in banks.
Look you, it’s not important to know when the bottom is in or not. What’s vital to your account statement is the proficiency of your asset management. Instead of guessing or throwing dice at stocks, invest with caution.
For every spike in [[C]], there is a “homo hammer of death” in [[CIT]].
In my opinion, all of the headline risk is to the downside. Taking long positions is okay. Just do it in moderation and do not be tricked by the assholes who have a vested interest in getting you back to the casino.
Keep in mind, we have yet to see significant job losses. If you think times are tough now for the mortgage industry, wait until national unemployment is at 6.5%, like it is in California.
I do not have an interest in playing bounces, or 1-2 day moves. For now, I am gearing myself to take advantage of the negative headwinds. If you think about it, the only time the market spikes is when the Fed intervenes.
Eventually, the Fed halo will vanish, as it did in 2002.
In short, the volatility is insane, making it nearly impossible for neutral swing traders to make money.
With my money, until I see significant blood in the streets, not this paper cut shit, I will keep my bias to the downside.
Top pick: cash
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Reported job losses are like reported inflation numbers; they’re a joke.
With all job losses related to the consumer through the housing industry & its financing arms, there is no chance employment is where they claim it to be.
I talked to a local carpenter where I live & most of his friends are out of work. However, they won’t show up on govy stats. Pfizer, for ex, hires an army of consultants, that are never on their payroll, but can & will get canned on a moments notice.
True. But, the real job numbers will be reported in retail sales.
I can tell you that large law firms are starting to cut, and legal jobs are drying up.
According to the Society of St. Vincent de Paul, the homeless growth rate in Orange County CA from 2001 to 2002 was 17 percent; the growth rate from 2002 to 2003 was the same. But in 2004 the growth rate increased to 21.5% and has not stopped its pace.
If we could get the numbers for all the major cities in the U.S., that might be an indicator of the health of the economy.
Or, just go down to the local library or post office during the winter time and get a head count.
On this site, or another, someone raised the point that this the first “blogged recession”.
Everybody has a fucking opinion, and apparently, they only base it on the last 24-48 hours of news and charts, rather than the bigger picture.
Understandable, because there’s a deluge of information, and piker’s brains have only so much capacity.
Everybody is calling tops and bottoms, pulling out charts from 1970’s or 1990’s or Japan or the great depression, and trying to line that shit up with ’08.
What does Mother Market do? What she always does… she says “fuck you” to all crystal ball readers… and does her own thing.
Hard to be a contrarian, when all opinions are in play.
But you’re right… the economic numbers favor the downside, in the medium term.
Fly,
What are you buying long (hedging) whenever we get towards those fake bottoms?
Also, you loading up more on SMN? You checked out the Put activity on XLB for april contracts (long version of SMN)? It’s insane…
All hedge funds are getting squeeze out of the short $/long commodities trade.
New play: short euro/ short commodities??? Gartman is talking alot about dollar intervention and continued strengthening.
What is cash? You must have hit a wormhole and shot into the past.
WMT is breaking out of a multi-year consolidation. And everyone shops at wally world, except The Fly of course.
The hedgies all lined up on the same side: short dollar, long commodities and gold. Now they are unwinding those positions in a monumental way, thanks to Uncle Ben and his distaste for 30:1 leverage. He says 10:1 is ok.
Monday will bring more of the same.
Big Mike, go with your gut.
Dawg, are you nuts or from Kaintucky?
Picking the Cats to win it all?
(They’re tied right now, btw)
I straddle the “bottoms”… it’s the way the asshats play…
WOW that sounded gay
My crystal ball says the money is coming out of currencies and commodities and going into stocks.
Prepare to lose a good portion of this years gains, McFly.
This is one manic depressive market.
I can’t believe how much they are pushing FXP down… get me under $110 you evil muthfckers, and my sale on Friday will be all “Klingon-Doug Henning” and shit.
Jake,
It may be the home of steers and queers, but I’m picking Texas. Disclosure: I’m not a resident of the Lone Star state.
Kaintucky?
KY is for hillbillies and people who need lubrication.
Holy shisbot do them Skiffles move. Check this, last Friday, I sold 135’s… with a little over 4 days of time left in them, for $7.60!
And that wasn’t even the high for the day!
They are now worth half a yen.
hey, i saw that british no tie guy on bloomberg early this am comparing the market to a 3 card street game too!
North Carolina. Tradition.
Watch it Asshat, my wife has “people” from them parts.
And I think the Dawg is from there as well.
I’ve got Tex-ass in my Final Four, but losing to the West Coast Pooftahs at UCLA.
Bove? Is that the Punk Ziegel guy? I saw that, he is uber funny. We’re in the eye of an unprecedented F6 hurricane and he is sounding the all clear. LMAO!
The market is so punked we’re not even getting a dead cat bounce. More of a dead cat flat splat. Bree hee hee!
Jake–
Not from Kentucky…grew up east coast but took Horace Greeley’s (actually John B.L.Soule’s) advice.
“The New York Fed has announced modifications to its new Term Securities Lending Facility (TSFL). The TSFL auctions will now allow schedule 2 collateral, instead of the schedule 1 collateral previously proposed. Schedule 2 collateral will now include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) and AAA rated commercial mortgage-backed securities.”
I have also instructed my posse to chop the balls off of any dissenters to my new policies.
We will survive this mess caused by Alan “the Asshat” Greenspan.
LEH is fucking people up.
dow futures up 1.2 million. is that correct? cuz that’s a lot.
LEH is a huge short I think.
There will be growth in the spring
“The dramatic and unprecedented actions over the weekend by the Federal Reserve and by the Treasury will be just the first of numerous private and public steps to preserve liquidity in the market and to facilitate rational actions to strengthen the economy,” said Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, in a statement released to MarketWatch.
Yeah, like Barney Frank’s asshattery about the gummint backing all these loser subprimes, and then making the banks take the hit at 85 cent to the dollar, max!
The Govt and Us formed together to buy the dow with our remaining 400 billion, and the governments credit…
We will continue to buy shares and demand them back from all of you at $1 a share, so the BSC actually becomes a good deal…
Then we’ll take your physical gold and silver just because and hike rates until you are forced to stand in line and eat soup…
Yes… Dow up 1.2 million
haha you can’t see me hiding behind this bi polar market!
I’ll come out to play soon enough!
There are a lot of people here. I’ll join you guys. Believe it or not, many people fail in commenting stuff. I’m just trying to say a simple thing – before commenting something, think twice!