Building a Warchest

Make no mistake, today was a major victory for the bulls. In the face of a “fuck you, you’re dead” sell off, the bulls clawed back and pared losses, significantly.

Not to be stubborn, I took profits on portions of my inverse etf’s, namely [[DUG]], [[SMN]] and [[EEV]].

Now, without a doubt, I feel the market will go much, much lower. If you believe the entire credit crisis warrants a minor 8% sell off, then go ahead and buy stocks—like a drunken idiot.

Again, at some point this year, I feel the DOW will be lower to the tune of 15% or double the current loss.

The reason why I took profits on some of my inverse etf’s was to build a fucking warchest. God willing, the lemmings who buy financial stocks will bid them up, over the next few trading sessions, enabling “The Fly” to bulk up on his [[SKF]] position.

As you know, I bought 3,000 SKF at the close, just in case.

Bottom line: if [[AAPL]] reports a good number, there is a good chance the market will spike higher tomorrow. I’m not interesting in making zillions, all at once. I’ll patiently wait for opportunities to arise, while holding a very large cash position.

The one thing I will not do is go long stocks, with the exception of special opportunities like [[CMO]], which is on fucking fire.

UPDATE: AAPL warned. Down we go. My [[REW]] position will shit all over the bulls tomorrow, much to their chagrin.

NOTE: In case you’re wondering, I was up 1.75% today.

I bought 3,000 [[SKF]] @ $121.50.

Disclaimer: If you buy SKF because of this post, your cock will fall off. And, you may lose money.

I sold 2,000 [[EEV]] @ $98.

I sold 5,000 shares of [[SMN]] @ $53.

I sold 10,000 shares of [[DUG]] @ $48.

Thanks in large part to the beard of Bernanke, we averted a stock market crash.

It’s funny how sentiment changes. Now, all of a sudden, banks and retailers are rallying— crazy man style.

Are people fucking retarded, thinking the credit crisis is over?

I mean, we have yet to see quarterly earnings reports or a really bad employment number.

However, in the short term, none of that matters. The only thing that counts is the delicate balance of fear and greed. Right now, thanks to the vix topping out at $37, after the opening plunge, investors are getting greedy for a “short term bottom” short squeeze.

With my money, I rather take the easy path and bet against oil. There isn’t much bottom fishing being done in oil, especially since lower oil prices bodes well for a stronger economy.

Bottom line, if you were lucky enough to scalp a few trades off the bottom, take profits, else see them vanish—like tanning oil in Angelo Mozilo’s “tropical room.”

Instead of banking big bucks on dicey Chinese solar burrito stocks, the market is ripping out the spines of speculators, then spitting them down idle drain pipes.

We have a scenario where leverage needs to unwind. It needs to unwind at the long/short hedge funds, who have a long bias. It needs to unwind at life insurance companies, who have regulated stop losses in place. And finally, leverage needs to be taken away from the investments banks, else they will taste pavement.

With every market crisis opportunities present itself. The trillion dollar question is: Are we low enough to start buying?

In my opinion, without doubt, the answer is no.

Considering the carnage in foreign markets, coupled with the massive economic problems at home, I suggest waiting to see some earnings reports, before stepping into the markets.

The last thing you want to do is start bargain shopping, ahead of some abysmal earnings reports.

Be patient you dumb fucker.

With my money, I will use any strength to sell more [[DECK]] and buy more [[DUG]].

In regards to crude, I believe we are on the other side of the mountain and can see much lower prices.

Finally, if you’re long, take a deep breath and relax; then start selling like an over caffeinated margin clerk— at an over leveraged firm.

In my opinion, this (cutting by 75 bps) was a big mistake. The downward momentum of the markets is too strong now. It’s almost too late.

The Fed should have let the market bleed out today; then do the surprise cut tomorrow morning.

Now, should the sellers grab control, the bulls have no backstop—no put.

A rather precarious situation, if you’re long.

Lord Duc, “Master of Arbitrage.”

Odd, no?

Lord Ducati will be the first of many Peanut Gallery bloggers to “earn” his very own iBankCoin blog, tab and all. It’s worth noting, there will be minor revenue sharing perks.

The thought process behind bringing on Ducati narrowed down to keeping my enemies close. While it’s true, I respect the hard work and effort Mr. MacDonald puts into his blogs, he is my enemy. Make no mistake about it.

Let’s all welcome, Lord Duc.

“The Fly” told you to sell it all, back in early, mid and late December. He (“The Fly”) proclaimed being on the “verge of making (his) best call ever,” via inverse ETF’s. He gave you an inside look of how his time machine worked, which enables him to make all sorts of coin, in various countries, in every single market environment.

Some of you even mocked me when I warned you to “get ready to die.” Hey, but this blog isn’t about pounding my own chest, while hitting you with a shovel. As you know, it’s about helping poor gaytraders make a nickle or two on intra-day swings.

After all, like I said before, having a real time machine is a curse, not a decadency.

Just know, “The Fly” would never laugh at your folly.

Finally, the game plan for tomorrow is simple: don’t get tempted to throw on some longside trades.

If your favorite stock opens down 10%, just know, it can fall another 10% by the close. When markets plunge, there is no bottom. And, with the elimination of the uptick rule, expect short sellers, like me, to start shooting fish in the barrel—taking advantage of downside moves.

NOTE: Here’s a bonus post from August.

You Can’t Make This Shit Up UPDATE: Tim Knight aka “Dope on a Slope,” self proclaimed perma-bear, got caught long nasdaq CALLS, with hardly any downside protection. This is too much. I can’t laugh any harder. No need to be sympathetic; he deserves it—as you know.

Fun Update: India opened for trading, then closed within 10 minutes—due to being limit down 10%. When they reopen, look for the Sensex to be down 15%. That’s 22% in two short sessions. So much for the emerging markets “decoupling” from the U.S.

Asshats.