Enjoy the Bounce—For it Will Be Short Lived

With today’s move up, I lost 0.10%. Gee, I wonder how I will recover from such carnage.

Please help.

Without doubt, the [[IBM]] news was exactly what the bulls needed. The shorts ran for cover, while natural buyers stepped into ag, hard.

Aside from ag, other commodity related names were hot, particularly in basic resources.

With financials about to lose a fresh round of billions, I am contemplating bulking up my [[SKF]] position.

Frankly, the only thing that will change my bearish sentiment is blowout numbers, amongst the retailers.

I don’t care about tech, ag, energy or industrials—just retail. The economic health of Joey Bag-o-Donuts is vital for this markets recovery. Without him, we’re just running on fumes, waiting to get car jacked, then rolled on with our own vehicles.

I sit here amazed at the fucktards who are calling a bottom in the market.

Get this, since 1970, after going lower in January, the market has averaged a loss of 11.5%. If we bottom here, it would represent the smallest decline EVER, in the month of January.

Fuck that.

With gold rocketing higher, financials shitting the bed and the consumer in the septic tank, there is no reason, aside from a short squeeze, to go long stocks.

Use this rally to reduce your long exposure. Otherwise, before you know it, we are diving, hitting the lows again, and you’re over there crying like a little bitch.

Today, I will do nothing. My largest short position, via [[FXP]], is up. Therefore, there is no need for me to add to the position.

If anything, I may sell [[LEH]] short, again.

Developing…

I must say, that fucker “Sierra Water,” prominently featured at the top of this months leaderboard, has been knocking the cover off the ball. Thus far, he has recommended [[COIN]], [[SEED]], [[FEED]] and [[GRO]]. All of them have killed shorts, while enriching the gambling longs.

It’s worth noting, Green Writer, who has also been on fire, brought SEED to the table first, in the low 7’s.

As for today’s trading:

Before my meetings, the market was showing signs of fatigue, with key stocks losing momentum. However, looking at shit now, I am impressed with the staying power of the bulls. Apparently, they do not read history and are doomed to repeat it.

Anyway, the financials are still getting the “knife to the gut” treatment, with losses in [[NFI]], [[DSL]], [[FCFC]], [[PMI]] and [[FMD]].

Also, within retail, [[HAR]], [[TIF]], [[SHLD]], [[RL]], [[NILE]] and [[COH]] scream economic hardship.

On the upside, I like the bounces in the beaten down semi’s, specifically, [[SNDK]], [[NVDA]] and [[WFR]].

The only sector with real buying interest is Agriculture. Right now, [[FEED]], [[COIN]], [[GRO]], [[NOEC]], [[ARTW]], [[TNH]], [[CNH]], [[POT]], [[LNN]], [[AG]], [[MOS]], [[SYT]], [[CF]], [[MON]], [[DE]], [[ADM]], [[AGU]] and [[BG]] are exploding—dot com style.

Frankly, everything besides Ag is just dead cat bouncing. At the moment, Ag has all the momentum.

In retardo land, when your biggest bank is being rumored to have lost 24 billion big ones, betting on degenerate lotto tickets, stock futures go up.

Of course, there is a “ton of good news,” mainly circled around the [[IBM]] chuck wagon. Then, we have other “good news” out of [[SHLD]], fucking itself again, getting ready to dive down another 10 spot.

What’s another 10 spot between friends? After all, aren’t we all friends with Cramer’s buddy/pal/money manager Eddy Lampert, CEO of SHLD?

Considering the severe oversold condition of the market, investors are piling into this “good news” environment, scared to miss out on some important sea change & shit.

With my currency, I’d rather buy cheap whores and vodka, than try to hitch a fucked ride on the “guess who will lose 15 billion plus tomorrow” shit train.

Aside from that, [[AAPL]] looks ripe for a bounce, going into Macworld.

NOTE: Today is Lindsay’s last day hosting Wallstrip. She did a great job hosting the show. I wish her the best. The new host will be Julia Alexander. Another win for Howard and those CBS fuckers.

UPDATE: I have meetings to attend. However, before I leave, I’m calling this bounce dead. Sell it twice and buy some [[FXP]], if that’s your style. [[CHL]] cannot get a deal signed with AAPL. They’re all assholes at CHL.

Most of you aren’t worth the ketchup on my meatloaf. Keep in mind, when I say “most,” I mean professional money managers, alongside pedestrian gaytraders.

Anyway, the zillion dollar question (not to be outdone by low-end trillion dollar questions) is: How low will we go?

I can tell you this, very simply: When the markets dip in January, they DO NOT recover right away.

Also, it’s worth noting, the fucktarded theory that states ” the market always goes higher in January,” enabling investors to celebrate by “sparking blunts,” is a misnomer.

As a matter of fact, thus far, during the 21st century, January has been an abysmal month for longs.

One thing is almost a certainty, based upon past Dow Jones performance data: when the market starts the year firing automatic rounds at bulls, it fucking dives.

Dating back to 1970, the market has endured some pretty fucked “January effects.” Take a look:

What you low ranked wrestlers know is “the market is getting killed.” However, what you don’t know, we are going significantly lower. Not because the average dip, based upon bad market starts over a 38 year stretch, is -11.5%.

Nope.

In my opinion, the economic troubles that we face today are unprecedented and deserve a “special decline.”

Keeping in mind past occurrences and utilizing time machine data, I say the DOW will get clipped to the tune of 13% by April, with hardly any real rallies or bounces. That’s almost 3x the current decline.

Do you think this is pain? You’ve not seen anything yet.

The game plan is simple: get short.

NOTE: This is your last warning.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEtkrNUkITY 450 300]

Back in late December, “The Fly” warned you (internet leech) of pending doom, yet you did nothing.

Look you, “The Fly” doesn’t have time to fuck around with destitute poor guys on the internet. I do this for fun and “unfun.” Through internet ads, I make enough money to put two weeks worth of Monster Energy Soda in my refrigerator.

As for today’s trading:

Crazy people were buying financials today, due to takeover chatter.

Rubbish.

You need to understand the reason why these banks are consolidating. It’s out of fear of collapse, not desire of making money. In short, these deals are bandaid solutions to a much bigger problem.

With my money, I want to sell short [[LEH]] and the big banks, via [[SKF]].

Now, even though I believe we are in a bear market, there will be bounces. For example, I would not be surprised to see the Fed do a surprise rate cut on options expiration day. They’re fucked up like that.

Or, on the news of further consolidation, the banks can run another 10%.

However, at the end of the year, the Nasdaq 100 will give up last years gains of 18% and more. So, use the rallies to sell longs.

As for [[DECK]]:

When the Great Depression part II comes, the only use for Uggs will be food. Hot chicks will have to eat their fucking boots, due to their lack of funds to buy over-inflated groceries.

NOTE: In case you didn’t know, this was the worst start to a new year, ever.

I sold 2,000 [[CN]] @ $63.83.

I sold short 2,000 [[LEH]] @ $57.86.

Disclaimer: If you sell short LEH because of this post, your neighbor will piss on your garden. And, you may lose money.

I bought 2,000 [[SKF]] @ $111.

UPDATE: I bought another 2,000 @ $110.50

Disclaimer: If you buy SKF because of this post, Angelo Mozilo will buy your company. And, you may lose money.