Sometimes it’s helpful to take a step back and be objective, regarding the market. Unfortunately, I’ve been on the wrong side of a trade or market, numerous times, throughout my career. What’s important to understand, when positions are going against you, is the reason why you hold them (positions) in the first place.
And, when initiating or building those positions, make sure you have ample cash reserves to buy cheaper—just in case you’re wrong.
Personally, the last thing I want to do is admit defeat, sell my losers and succumb to “what’s working.” However, many times, that’s exactly what should be done.
For example: I should have sold all of my [[AAPL]] a long time ago. The stock has been a bowser in 2008 and has been a significant drag on my portfolios. Instead, I should have put the money to work in oil/natty or something else worth the fucking paper it’s written on.
With regards to my current short positions:
Rational people would suggest to run for cover, since the bull is back and the sellers have no balls. For now, sitting on top of good year to date gains, I will give myself a little more rope to hang myself with, while eagerly awaiting this run to fizz out. Keep in mind, I believe the market will be down between 10-15% this year. Being down a mere 5% (YTD) on the DOW doesn’t scream “fucking value” to me. Considering the 450 point run, in three days, I feverishly suggest selling twice over.
With that being said, doing my screens, I’ve come across a good list of stocks that are working (today)— and a few that are not.
Financials:
Good: [[BX]], [[FCSX]], [[FIG]], [[MBI]], [[JNS]], [[TROW]], [[COF]], [[C]], [[LEH]], [[ABK]], [[FMD]]
Bad: [[ABK]], [[RMG]], [[SDA]], [[ICE]], [[RJF]], [[GS]]
Retail:
Good: [[RSH]], [[M]], [[MSO]], [[BID]], [[AZO]], [[SHLD]], [[KCP]], [[BEBE]], [[BGP]], [[GES]], [[COH]], [[ZUMZ]]
Bad: [[KSWS]], [[LULU]]
Food and Beverage:
Good: [[LNY]], [[JBX]], [[BWLD]], [[TXRH]], [[ABV]], [[DRI]], [[HANS]], [[DPZ]], [[PZZA]]
Bad: [[COT]], [[GAP]], [[BAGL]]
Energy:
Good: [[NTG]], [[TSO]], [[DWSN]], [[STP]], [[CHNR]], [[PQ]], [[DPTR]], [[CLNE]], [[ARD]], [[FTO]], [[PDC]], [[CSIQ]], [[WNR]], [[ALJ]].
Bad: [[USU]], [[PKD]], [[NGAS]], [[YGE]], [[GASS]], [[LNG]], [[LDK]], [[TSL]], [[HOKU]], [[NWN]], [[BTU]]
Semi’s:
Good: [[TER]], [[CREE]], [[EMKR]], [[ATE]], [[SMTC]], [[SWKS]], [[FORM]], [[INTC]], [[KLAC]]
Bad: [[TSRA]], [[SNDK]], [[SIGM]]
Internet:
Good: [[NFLX]], [[CTRP]], [[PCLN]]
Bad: [[TSCM]], [[GOOG]], [[BIDU]], [[WBMD]], [[MELI]], [[EBAY]]
Trannies:
Good: [[GWR]], [[ACLI]], [[GBX]], [[OSG]], [[BNI]]
Bad: [[DRYS]], [[EXM]], [[NM]]
Metals:
Good: [[ERS]]. [[IIIN]], [[PAAS]], [[ROCK]]
Bad: [[ZEUS]], [[ZOLT]]
Industrials:
Good: [[DCO]], [[GRO]], [[CLX]], [[LAYN]], [[DW]], [[MHK]], [[KAMN]], [[VMI]], [[LNN]], [[LECO]], [[EXH]], [[WHR]], [[TEX]]
Bad: [[CRDN]], [[PCP]], [[IRBT]], [[TITN]], [[CSL]]
Hardware:
Good: [[DELL]], [[HTCH]], [[EMC]], [[AUO]], [[TRMB]]
Bad: [[AAPL]], [[RIMM]], [[DISH]], [[NNDS]], [[GRMN]]
Wireless:
Good: [[CNTF]], [[TKC]], [[VM]], [[IDCC]], [[SWIR]], [[MBT]], [[USM]], [[NIHD]], [[VIP]], [[MICC]]
Bad: [[SKM]]
Currencies:
Good: [[FXY]], [[FXE]], [[FXC]], [[UDN]]
Bad: Dollars
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