Dick Bove, Bank Analyst, Punk Ziegel
“Buy the banks. They’re all yummy, down at these levels.”
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
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Anyone know a Life Insurance company ETF? if there is one
Gunners,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=KIE
Wow, that was fast. (pun intended)
thanks
I went to see my doctor due to some “inappropriate masculine itching”. He took a look and told me I had a mild case of “dick bove”. I asked him to please use more clinical language next time, but I was relieved it wasn’t something more serious.
Later, I went to a local German restaurant. The owner and his staff are not fluent in English, so I attempted to order my favorite dish in their mother tongue: “Entschuldigen Sie bitte. Ich möchte einige Punk Ziegel mit einer großen Portion Senf.” Even with my poor pronunciation, they understood me, and moments later, I was sitting before a hot delicious meal.
Toward the afternoon, I took a visit to my local sex shop. I asked the proprietor to direct me to the Cock Rings (since I was in the market for a new one). He told me they were next to the Dick Boves (I didn’t think to look there). I left with my purchase.
Finally, me and my girl decided to check out a local band called the “Punk Ziegels”. I recently downloaded their new single, “Bove Says Bear Holder Lewis Won’t Find Alternative Deal”, and wondered if they had the same energy when playing live. We decided they weren’t very good after all, and went home.
The end.
reminds me when after 1929 crash JP morgan stepped in and bought banks and people said “the market has hit bottom”. Everyone rushed in buying and then the banks pulled out faster than you would if you were having sex with Paris Hilton, and just realized you don’t have a condom on.
Gunner what’s the angle? Lookng for a bottom or short.
more bad news press – hope it sticks in minds on Monday… Fuck Dick Bove with a New York skyscraper crane.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080322/recession_how_bad.html
Central banks float rescue ideas
Redwood,
Doing some research. May be looking to short PFG. I will post something soon
fm Barrons – Dow 20K, here we come! All aboard, train be leaving the station.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Are You Ready for Dow 20,000?
By JONATHAN R. LAING
DESPITE THE BEAR STEARNS BAILOUT AND THE FED’S rate cut, a sense of foreboding is still abroad on Wall and Main Streets. Few investors feel good with an economic slowdown gathering force, the dollar in the dumps and contagion threatening to hit financial sectors previously unscathed or not even suspected of being at risk.
This in mind, we contacted James Finucane, a 67-year-old stock strategist who now works as a consultant in West Lafayette, Ind., home of Purdue University (“modest cost of living, a great brew pub and incomparable high-school hoops,” he gushes). Among his talents: pool hustling. He was the 1961 National Student Unions pool champ, representing Notre Dame.
He also has been great at calling stock-market lows, including that reached in the week after the October 1987 crash. “Lows have always been easier for me to call than tops. I was premature in seeing the 2000 stock market high, for instance,” notes Finucane, who long labored in Chicago at Stifel, Nicolaus.
Finucane argues that financial crises invariably yield spectacular buy points, and that we’re at one now.
To him, we’re now at yet another extraordinary low, especially with the unprecedented actions taken by the Fed of late to offer liquidity to investment banks and to commercial banks stuck with mortgage-backed securities of uncertain value. In fact, he foresees an explosive rally, with the Dow rocketing to 18,000 to 20,000 within a year from its current 12,361. The climb, he says, might begin imminently or take a few months of backing and filling before the market takes off.
Finucane argues that financial crises invariably yield spectacular buy points, especially when they reach crescendos. He points to calamities such as the 1970 Penn Central bankruptcy, the 1984 failure of Continental Bank, the 1994 Mexican peso devaluation and the 1998 collapse of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund. Each time, important lows were made either simultaneously or within a month of the crisis.
He concedes that the latest crisis, which began last summer with the subprime-mortgage meltdown, has been “like a forest fire,” spreading throughout the debt market, sometimes jumping fire walls to spring up in unforeseen areas. Yet he’s now confident that the “panic lows” in the Dow, posted on Jan. 22 and 23, when it sank as low as 11,508, will hold. To him, the Bear Stearns bailout was a crescendo event.
Certainly, the news is hardly encouraging these days, with scary economic and market headlines like those for Alan Greenspan’s recent assertion that the current financial crisis is the worst faced by the U.S. since World War II. A nasty recession impends or is already here. But crisis lows are always accompanied by hair-raising rhetoric and dire economic forecasts.
Finucane has long kept score, carefully cataloging predictions made at past economic inflection points. He points out, for example, that Greenspan contemporaneously described the Long Term Capital collapse in 1998 as the worst crisis he’d seen in his lifetime. Time magazine wasn’t being intentionally ironic when it called the ad hoc government group cobbled together to grapple with the 1994 Mexican peso crisis the Committee to Save the World. Financier George Soros was just as downbeat after the 1987 stock-market crash as he is today, each time predicting a depression.
Why is Finucane bullish? For one thing, he observes that “governments and central banks have a clear incentive to promote growth, so to bet on a prolonged slump is to bet against the government, markets and human nature.” He also takes comfort in a host of technical factors, including liquidity. Money-market cash, for example, has soared to $3.45 trillion, versus $2.2 trillion at the market low in March 2003. And U.S. domestic equity funds have seen a record nine consecutive months of net outflows, a skein that probably will hit 10 months when the Investment Company Institute releases its February numbers. The previous record was eight months, following the 1987 stock-market crash. The Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index is at a 17-year low. The Reuters-University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey is at its worst level since 1992. The American Association of Individual Investors finds small investors more bearish than they’ve been since 1990. And on and on.
What make these statistics all the more telling is that, by Finucane’s reckoning, investors in 2003 had suffered more pain and yet were less fearful. By March 2003, for example, they’d endured 36 months of mostly falling prices, including 90% wipeouts in some top tech names. Retail sales had buckled in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. United Airlines had filed for bankruptcy protection the previous December, the month in which McDonald’s reported its first quarterly loss in 37 years. Industrial production was punk. Many forecasters warned of a double-dip recession close on the heels of the 2000-2001 recession.
In Finucane’s estimation, months of stock liquidation and cash buildup, horrible sentiment and a bailout that could alter investor psychology have lit the fuse for an explosive rally. It will be ignited by one of those mercurial shifts in mood from abject fear to tentative confidence and, finally, wanton greed. “The setup is perfect,” he asserts, using a pool-hall term. And he’s confident that investors won’t end up behind the eight ball.
Oh excellent, Barron’s only had to go to Terre Haute, Indiana to find someone to call a bottom?
I have a feeling this bodes ill for Purdue this weekend.
___________
BTW — Fly, which name are you flying under in the Hoops Tourney for IBC?
Fly:
I think a short bond position makes sense here as a hedge on your equity shorts. Basically, the long bond and the equity market are totally divergent; the former is discounting the great depression and the latter a mild cold. Either rates move up some or equity prices fall further.
But the real reason, the number one reason, for shorting T bonds here is that the holder of every asset class must suffer in the credit crunch and the general deleveraging. Gold, energy, and ags had seemed immune, but have recently had their comeuppance, thus confirming the rule: Everyone (the resident genius Mr. Fly excepted) shall lose money! There will be only one or two exceptions! You shall all feel peril and put your children’s future and your retirement at risk, whatever you do! It’s not complicated; it’s just the market taking sweet revenge (by taking back) any easy gains.
It’s absurd that people jumping into T-bonds for no better reason than they’re petrified of stocks should benefit from their panic; their motives are impure. They surely don’t understand what they’re doing–loaning money to a government busily inflating the currency and socializing bad debt, at a rate of interest hardly worth the trouble of collecting. The fuckers have made something like 10 percent in the last six months, which is totally wrong considering how stupid and idiotic they really are. So they must and shall suffer. The bond rally was purely for the purpose of bankrupting leveraged firms that were short treasuries and long agency debt. Now that this has been accomplished, the tables are ready to turn.
On the basis of my theory of the maximum dispersion of suffering, it would follow that a mild rally (if there is such a thing anymore) would be just the ticket. By restoring a bit of confidence, this would induce a correction in bonds and take away some ill-gotten gains; thinking that they were missing the boat on stocks, the mob would then take their much reduced bond winnings and reallocate to stocks, only to buy into the reversal that would take the equity averages back down again. That would fuck up the largest number of people and therefore seems to me to be the most likely outcome. It is in any case essential, desirable, mandatory, and basically decided already that mass man, especially the bond pussy, must feel his life savings draining away from him, and the next step in this sequence, before the hammer really comes down, should be a correction in bonds.
P.S. An Academy Award for Best Screenplay to True Stories.
Jake:
I don’t have time for March Madness shit.
SternBear:
Good stuff. Go join the PG.
Not Terre Haute, West Lafayette. The Sycamores of Indiana State are in Terre Haute. Terre Haute is a dump compared to West Lafayette and that’s saying something.
Frankly, I’ll take the opinion of a grizzly Main Street analyst who has seen his fair share of up and downs over the last few decades than the smelly tripe that’s been issued forth by the sell side crooks on Wall Street over the years.
Not that it matters.
Happy Easter all.
Steverino,
Forgive me, being an obnoxious New Yorker by birth, I’m constantly confusing my third tier farm belt cities.
Let none of that take away from the hilarity of Barron’s scraping the bottom of the barrel for a header.
____________
Fly — no “time” to take five minutes (literally, I did two in that time, but then I’ve a high IQ) to fill out a bracket for your own site’s tourney?
Sounds like an excuse for latent geekery to me.
No problem, Jake. It’s all one big brown blur when passing over at 20,000 feet anyways.
Steve —
I’ve no excuse now… I live out here!
1 in 6 NASA Astronauts graduated from Purdue University. Not bad for a third tier farm belt city.
Huh… Your blog is nice in general, but this very post… It is brilliant!!! It can be never better.