Amateur Time

All of the “important people” have closed out 2008, with huge losses or minor gains. Most people I know have zero interest in navigating the last few weeks of a horrific year, considering all of the tax loss selling and soon to be going out of business hedge fund industry.

There will be forced selling, coupled with asshole fund managers desperately trying to throw hail mary’s, in order to save their jobs.

They will not value pick. These idiots need fast money FAST. They will try to jerk heavily shorted names, like BKE, higher. Also, they will dump capital into commodity plays, trying to regain magic in a bottle.

The only problem: that strategy will fail, thanks to the millions of people who have been flame broiled in those names this year. Sometime soon, there will be waves of tax loss selling, that will punch the fucking mustaches off of those who are buying dips.

Nonetheless, do not expect to have fun trading this market, any time soon.

As for me:

I still have a few victories to claim in 2008. I might not make any huge bets, coming down the stretch. But, I will set myself up for egregious victories, during the first two weeks of the New Year.

As you know, “The Fly” always begins the New Year with success. To be honest, I can’t remember the last New Year when I did not knock the cover off the ball, if I might be so bold as to say so.

With regards to oil:

The ramifications of knifing oil prices have not affected the stock prices of the big oil producers, like XOM and CVX, yet. There seems to be some sort of idiotic theory running around that oil is poised to double, in a matter of weeks. That’s asinine. Furthermore, anyone who invests like that should be forced to invest with Maddoff, right now.

NOTE: This is my last post for the trading session. I have many errands to attend to.

A parable of sorts, for you asshole dip buyers.

I had lots of errands to run this morning. After all, it’s fucking Christmas and I do not have the time, nor the inclination, to just sit here and blog, and shit.

Much to my delight, the market reversed and went lower. This is especially amusing after my weekend capitulation post, exclaiming the virtues of depressed economies and inexperienced leaders.

Never mind that. That was “silly ol’ Fly” playing a joke on ya. Why, he was just clowning around, while shooting “Fuck Face Frank” out of his clown cannon, into a field of stringed beans.

I am heavily short oil here. Thus far, this so called short position of mine has yet to yield returns. Let it be known, I shall win this battle, through attrition, once all of the old/asshole oil bulls retire to their fucking mausoleums.

Banks are getting smashed, which is pretty cool, since I sold half of my FAS on Friday. My FAZ position is almost free to run like purple pony in an open field of grass and daisies.

Finally, SRS is a steal down here, as well as FXP. Flip a coin and decide which one you like more. Nothing else seems to work. You might as well try random choice for a change.

Off to the local shopping center.

I had time, while freezing my ass off this weekend (I am warm and rich now), to think about market psychology. After all, that’s what short term moves are all about.

Then I saw someone throw a couple of shoes at President Bush and it dawned on me: holy shit, people are going to celebrate like it’s 1929 when he gets kicked out of the White House.

Last January was different. We were at very high levels and people were still in denial. Today, people know everything sucks, but yearn for better times.

Basically, we could be heading into a period when the market melts up, for no good reason, causing bears to shoot howitzer shells into their faces. Without a doubt, EVENTUALLY, all of the bad news will crush the spirits of the true believers. However, in the interim, Obama lovers, coupled with New Years fools, might gun this fucker another 10-15%.

One of my new strategies for 2009 is to avoid 2x and 3x etf’s. They have proven to be mathematical absurdities. In their place, “The Fly” will get back to good ol’ fashioned stock picking.

At the moment, I have a very large cash position. Upon executing my “Don’t Let the Door Hit Bush on the Way Out” strategy, I might buy the following:

INTC, RIO, AMKR (dice roll), UN, AYE, LNN, CMP and APOL.

NOTE: In the event the market just dives off a cliff, sometime very soon, I will shelf the thoughts written above, indefinitely.

Too many people on the internet have stolen my writing style. Because of this, “The Fly” will be changing up his style, over the coming weeks, in order to separate himself from the fucking mindless drones/asshole/cocksucking/leaches, who attempt to suck out my gray matter, on a daily basis.

In case you were all worried and shit (I’ve received zero emails, fuck you), “The Fly” and family live in an ice box, thanks to a broken gas valve in his furnace. Naturally, “The Fly” is willing to overpay, for this slight inconvenience, to have it (my fucking furnace) fixed in a timely manner. But, it seems the local technicians are too fucking busy getting ready for Sunday foolsball, than to help out a few icicles, who greatly desire a little HEAT. Cocksuckers!

Should this son of a bitch of a furnace remain unfixed, “The Fly” and Co. will be living large, at the local hotel, ordering all types of over-salted fare.

Aside from that, life is phenomenal. To date, I’ve spent an inordinate amount of money on Christmas and there is still much to do, such as find a new private beach club or buy another car.

Mind you, managing money for a living is an idiotic lifestyle/living. I sleep 3-4 hours per day, not by choice, but necessity. And, I fucking hate people. Maybe I should just run for local office and become some sort of Congressman. This way, I can fuck with all of the people I hate, in a very legal/scary sort of way.

Doing this blog thing is sort of inane too. However, because of it, I get to meet all sorts of cool people, like Howard, and make them pay for my pizza slices.

At the end of the day, I just want to punch a few furnace technicians in the trachea and jump kick a few truckloads of stock brokers into the freezing Atlantic.

UPDATE: “Frank the furnace technician” came to my house and replaced the gas valve on my furnace. Apparently, “this one ain’t workin’ so good.” Upon Frank leaving, I chased after him and said “hey Frank, I still smell gas. Get back in here and fix it.”

Frank replied: “that’s impossible. Nuttin’ is wrong with it. Call National Grid and have them checks its.”

So, after “Fuck Face Frank” left, I called National Grid and requested a gas leak inspection. Naturally, after the Nat Grid guy arrived and tested my furnace, THERE WAS A FUCKING GAS LEAK.

Much to my amazement, the brand new gas valve is faulty. Shit like this only happens to me. He had to turn off the gas to my furnace again.

Back to freezing.

At any rate, “Fuck Face Frank” is back on his way here to re-change the valve. I threatened those fuckers will stop payment and all sorts of other unkind actions.

UPDATE: Frank informed me that “he won’t have that same valve until tomorrows.” Fucking faggot.

UPDATE: In what can only be described as a “Christmas miracle,” Fuck Face Frank found a valve!
Santa Frank is on his way now, ovah here.

UPDATE: Fuck Face Frank came with his lighter this time, trying to ignite the “alleged leak” around my furnace. Apparently, he believes I am doing this for fun. He changed the valve again. And, much to my chagrin, I still smell gas. WTF!!!

I will be forced to blow the fuck up, since I can’t deal with this shit anymore.

Story over.

12/13/2008

8am- Woke up early this morning, in order to drape the house with Christmas lights—which, incidentally, I have been putting off. Mrs. Fly is not too happy about the lights not being on the house, nor on the front lawn..  I will be getting the ladder, ample supplies of coffee and the “blue radio,” which I found hidden in the garage. Wish me luck.

11am- Boy was it cold outside. I finished putting the fucking lights on the house and nearby killed myself doing so. I saw my neighbor Steve. He does not appear to be doing too well. The recession has him down, literally.

12pm- I searched the internet and people are still stupid. All is well. I will be heading out for some Christmas shopping today, somewhere in Northern New Jersey.

1pm- I Just got a call from a buddy at Morgan Stanley. He’s been shitcanned and needs to find alternative employment. I suggested he become a cab driver and to move from his house in Scarsdale, for a run down studio apartment in Hell’s Kitchen.

2pm- I started “live blogging” the recession of 2008. After this post, I will head out into the cold, grim world of retail.

12/14/2008

12am- After bathing and putting the kids into bed, after a long day of shopping, much to my chagrin, I found gas leak in my heating unit. While I sit here, waiting for National Grid to arrive, I can tell you the New Jersey shopping scene is quite brisk. Men are walking around, dressed in white robes, smoking pipes and making their servants fetch 100 inch flat screen televisions.

The women are fat as hell, buying themselves Christmas presents and getting the kids stuff too. All in all, I saw vultures at Walmart and Emperors at the local mall. Wagons were bumper to bumper and parking was nonexistent.

Without a doubt, the pending depression that everyone talk about is nowhere to be scene, in these egregious neck of the woods. I tell Mrs. Fly all the time: “No one has money. It’s all credit card purchases.”

She never believes me. Her theory: people in the tri-state area are all rich and never in need of surplus currency.

My guess, people went on mugging sprees, just prior to entering the mall. Or, many of the people at Walmart just hit the lotto, or some shit.

However, I will say, at my local mall, everything inside of Macy’s was 50-70% off. The cashiers told me things were okay, nothing to rave over.

All in all, the shopping at Walmart was frenetic, while the mall scene was your standard holiday “get me the fuck out of here, it’s too busy” type of venue.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skV5N4hN2qo 450 300]

Fuck this shit. I sold 50% of my FAS, for a quick $1.50 profit. I’ve been blogging like the wind, mind you, all for naught.

Here I am, dressed in an unprecedented “Golden Robe,” matched with cast iron slippers, expecting some sort of monumental day—considering the GM/Maddoff crap—and I get nothing. Absolutely nothing.

Blah.

Ecuador just defaulted on their debt. Venezuela and Argentina are next. Yet, here we are up a smidge, going into a glorious weekend. Aside from the stupidity of it all, this is very bullish behavior.

Any analyst worth his water must downgrade XOM and companies like her. Goldman and Merrill both are suggesting crude will trade down to $30, yet XOM has 6 strong buys and 4 buys. Aside from what you think will happen to the price of crude, the analysts think it goes lower. With that logic, they MUST downgrade XOM to conform with their new bearish position.

ERY and DUG will benefit from such egregious actions.

The whole auto bailout business is nonsensical. If GM, F, HMC and TM are cutting back on production, don’t you think that will hurt their suppliers? The brains of our elected officials are very small, much to my chagrin.

At the end of the day, I came out a champ, amidst The Maddoff Jerkoff. I even made money on my dice roll: CBL!

Bottom line: we should trade a lot lower from today’s closing levels, wherever that may be. Time is working against those who are long and I intend to kill these people in the weeks and months ahead.

Wish me luck!!

UPDATE: Nibbling at SRS down here, sub $81.

Place your bets, riverboat gamblers.

I bought 3,000 SMN, a touch under $68.

Disclaimer: If you buy SMN because of this post, you will become addicted to the stock market and develop a minor case of hypertension. And, you may lose money.