My losses at 2:20pm, following today’s Fed decision, were staggering. Well, not as bad as they could have been, since I raised a lot of cash a few days ago, but still bad.
I had my heels dug in, heavily short oil, with a minor bank short, partly hedged with longs. Nonetheless, if I did not take action today, it could have been a -10%+ day, or one of the worst trading sessions this year— for Senor Tropicana.
This post is not to rub in how smart I am or how evidently dumb you might be. Instead, it is a message, from the darkest corners of the internet, penned by a strange man, who refers to himself in the 3rd person and wastes inordinate amounts of time on the internet, during very weird hours of the day.
Here’s the point:
No matter how embedded you might be in your theory, as I was prior to the Fed surprise, be prepared to do the exact opposite, at all times. I know that seems nonsensical to many of you wannabe Warren Buffetts or Jimmy “bow tie motherfucker” Rogers. See, here on planet earth, where money dictates quality of life, it’s important to preserve what you have.
Assholes like Jimmy “fuckfaced bowtie” Rogers can afford to ride out 80% slides in his asinine commodity plays. However, for people worth less than 500 million, you might want to watch your positions more carefully.
Now, come tomorrow, I may switch sides again, which is okay. My gains in FAS, ABX, TNA, C, URE, amongst others, are so great, I am almost ensured to profit from today’s momentum chase—barring a “fuck you, you’re dead” collapse tomorrow.
For the record, I am not in the Cramer camp, who is totally ignorant to the market whims and current economic crisis. I believe today’s news was in fact horrific. I do not believe a Fed Funds rate of zero percent will help out the unemployment rate.
And, furthermore, once the economy does rebound, prepare for the mother of all inflation cycles, headlined by the crash of the U.S. dollar.
To play this (mother of all inflation cycles), I like gold, agriculture chemicals and select financials.
Within Gold, I like:
ABX, RGLD, GG, AUY and KGC.
Within Agriculture Chemicals, I like:
MOS, CF, SYT and POT.
And, within Financials, I like:
C, BAC, ITU, NLY, AFL and CMO.
Other stocks on the radar include: GWW, AMKR, INTC, ISIL and PCP.
Odds are, I will resist buying any of them, since the market is a fucking meat grinder and will likely collapse under the weight of idiocy. Just to fuck with people, as sure as I am sitting here, the dollar will firm and oil will shit itself. Who knows?
However, in the event I opt to execute some long trades, the above list is where I will go.
NO MORE 2x, 3x ETF’s.
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