Fuck this shit. I sold 50% of my FAS, for a quick $1.50 profit. I’ve been blogging like the wind, mind you, all for naught.
Here I am, dressed in an unprecedented “Golden Robe,” matched with cast iron slippers, expecting some sort of monumental day—considering the GM/Maddoff crap—and I get nothing. Absolutely nothing.
Blah.
Ecuador just defaulted on their debt. Venezuela and Argentina are next. Yet, here we are up a smidge, going into a glorious weekend. Aside from the stupidity of it all, this is very bullish behavior.
Any analyst worth his water must downgrade XOM and companies like her. Goldman and Merrill both are suggesting crude will trade down to $30, yet XOM has 6 strong buys and 4 buys. Aside from what you think will happen to the price of crude, the analysts think it goes lower. With that logic, they MUST downgrade XOM to conform with their new bearish position.
ERY and DUG will benefit from such egregious actions.
The whole auto bailout business is nonsensical. If GM, F, HMC and TM are cutting back on production, don’t you think that will hurt their suppliers? The brains of our elected officials are very small, much to my chagrin.
At the end of the day, I came out a champ, amidst The Maddoff Jerkoff. I even made money on my dice roll: CBL!
Bottom line: we should trade a lot lower from today’s closing levels, wherever that may be. Time is working against those who are long and I intend to kill these people in the weeks and months ahead.
Wish me luck!!
UPDATE: Nibbling at SRS down here, sub $81.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHMg04m-V0c 450 300] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Fly is God
Come on, when even I called a selloff today, you know we’re not going to get one. Play it “contrarian-style”. Plus next week is like octuple-witching or some shit.
Trading this market is like fucking your wife on her period. You do it only because you have to and once it’s over you wonder why you bothered to get into that mess.
What a bullshit rally
Wow, looks like SRS is headed for FXP land. Lost and no place to go.
Fly, are you still long all your FAZ?
So, any of you guys want to be “Car Czar”?
lol it is really a mess in here everyone was ultra bearish…
Still long FAZ, although half as big as earlier today.
New Lows next week.
We’re thinking of opening up a “Czar Czar” position, to keep track of our various czars.
We finish on 0 – 00 …you know that shit has to happen once. You know its those Green thingies on the roulette wheel that always get ya.
sold my FAZ this am shortly after open. should have sold pre-open, but i slept in.
bought FAS; scalped a point off of that and sold it. went to the diner for a greasy late breakfast, and here i am.
100% cash for the weekend.
just going to hang out for govt and/or GS shenanigans before i do anything further.
Actually, more people are bullish here than bearish. They’ve been giving me shit, over the past two weeks.
When does Mr. Fly celebrate his egregious YOY winnings?
Thanks, Fly. Sold half of mine (FAZ) too. Did a bad job of averaging down, tho.
_________________
Probably smart, Aris.
Costanza buys here if the autos are saved:
DAN
TRW
GPM
We all forgot that the crash doesn’t happen until after the bailout has passed
Madoff Pretentious Jerkoff:
“”People who came to us for portfolio construction were often already invested with Bernie Madoff, he had hundreds of clients,” said Charles Gradante, who invests in hedge funds as a principal at Hennessee Group. ‘Now his whole legacy is destroyed. He was God to people.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28195029
Best line of the week…
“Get in the Funnel”
Fly, thanks. You make a really good contrarian indicator.
MissTrade on Twitter:
“Paulson and the TARP should bail out the Madoff investors. They deserve it! Everybody’s on the honor roll and all get trophies now!!”
Funny fucker.
No Fly or anything, but funny.
malaka, thanks. You make a really good target.
# The Fly Says:
CAP:
STFU and accept your fate like a fucking man. You are acting like a pussy.
The market is going to set your homo cock sucking head on fire tomorrow. It’s not my fault you chose to defy the stock Gods and “The Fly.”
Punishment will be doled out in the a.m.
Markets don’t say “fuck you” to comments like that or pending bankruptcy from its largest manufacturer.
December 11th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
Fly – you were saying ?
The crack oil analysts at GS reduced their crude target today to $30. They were the same jerkoffs who raised it to $200 when it was $140.
How pathetic are they?
I am fucking pissed at how dumb this fucking market is. I would be stupid to say that I dont care going from 50k up at the pop open, to more than that down by end of day.
Auto makers can take there own stim package and the government will need to package their own package. Can you tell me how helping auto makers will help more than hurt our current state ? Without me providing simple numbers and getting all elaborate and shit.
People are not going to fucking buy fucking carsssssss period. All the employees of these auto makers are not going to have to work when production is cut ?just collect paychecks ? Yet, sending them billions will help furnish their future tent city with 24 carat gold fucking zippers and 1200 thread count sleeping bags.
Production down means less revenue and than what ? another stim package fuck off. How about combine everything into one debacle build new industry such as toyota production plants, honda plants ? Cars that actually sell. I know this makes sense whos IN
Anybody buying SRS around 77 in the AH?
This Madoff guy sounds a little like ..ahem ……The FLY .
Even in volatile markets he was making all these consistent positive returns. He was always winning despite the markets. Madoff wins even when he losses (sic) .
Bernie Madoff = Senor Tropicana Aka the Fly
I am telling you, something about SRS doesn’t look kosher. I wouldn’t be surprised if it never reaches $100 again, FXP style. Of course it’s too early to tell though.
Go suck your own dick again.
Anton: i put in some short iyr exactly at the close.
Sold SRS at 92 this morning and nibbled again near the close at 77.
Shorty: dude, SRS is down almost exactly double IYR today. there’s no shenanigans.
GGP just got funding and today was lolrus partytime for real estate stocks.
Bernie Madoff = http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7Wvk-CVN-Y
CAP – sounds like, but isn’t. Madoff got his ass hauled off to jail and shit.
What would we do without our dear Fly, the best contrarian indicator around. Bank coin on doing exactly the opposite of what he says.
jeje yeah SRS aint Kosher, if its at 77 now then at what price will it be if we get to s&p 900, 920?
Malaka:
May your goats rape you while you sleep.
^^^^^^ Impostor fake
When I was about 19 in the late 70’s we had this deal blow thru town called the Investment club or some such shit….it was a deal where you put in a grand and then find 2 people to put in a grand and they find 2 people and so on… and then when you get to your place in the pyramid you start getting paid. It was hilarious they had all the KC Royals and Chiefs in the deal and you would go to these meetings in some
hotel it was irresistible. Of course the Attorney General shut it down right when I was ready to get paid.
Nice to see Madoff still was working the investment club.
Shorty,
I don’t know if these inverse migraines get popular and then smarties figure out they can manipulate and arbitrage the underlying stocks or what, but just about the time they seem to reeeeeally be working, they break like a fucking GM vehicle.
FXP probably worst because the index is relatively small and China can wag that fucking thing anyway it wants. Madoff must have taught the Chinese his accounting methods.
BTW, I own FXP around $48. Made a little $$ on SRS today on a quick trade. But for the most part, if I buy it, I always seem to be the last guy to the party. If I post a buy, run the fuck away and you’ll save money.
Absolutely Mud. On a day to day basis, SRS will track IYR on a -2:1 basis. Just as FXP does with FXI. My point is that when an ETF such as IYR forms a bottom, its effect on the price of the double short ETF is what you have seen with FXP.
I believe you are playing it the better way by shorting the IYR instead of going long SRS.
Wow I almost just threw up laughing… Fly all that gefilte fish labia must be turning into a sour man ahah
mudkips,
Do you find shorting IYR to work better than SRS?
Haven’t looked up components, but it seems they’d be similar, inversely speaking.
i can’t help but wonder if there are a bunch of people sitting on gains that don’t want to sell before jan 1. it just seems like there is a dearth of sellers right now.
ROFL!!
This is war, right Fly?
a man called madoff ??
that name is so fucking stupid, … you wouldn’t name a dog after it…
Well, hell, didn’t see Shorty’s explanation.
Nevermind.
“The leader” “The pothead skate boarder” Funny a$$ pics
when you realize were going up Fly. Let me know when u switch on over, but just make sure u eventually switch back to bear
maybe that is the blog page for the one who called himself Fly Jr….
Devil Dog missed on the new lows call again this week…so I guess the new lows this month is the call to wait for…..o else it will have to be new lows next year….
Can someone please tell me in plain and simple dumb fuck terms what in the name of green leotard wearing men causes the market to drop from 900 to 830 yesterday only to go from 830 to 885 (I am talking ES futures here) the next day? What level of caveman logic is occurring here to cause this? Stocks bad, oh wait stocks good, oh no stocks bad..,. its frickin insane, and yes go fuck yourself Geico caveman. Have a pleasant weekend and may your tight green leotards cut off the blood supply to your nuts so they wilt and die in a most dishonorable fashion.
Shorty, regarding SRS, have you forgotten where it was trading just 3 weeks ago?
It swings wildly as the market vacillates between “I don’t wanna miss the bottom” and “I don’t think there is a bottom”.
Oh and by the way lets save this news until the market closes:
“Haven Trust Bank of Duluth, Ga. fails; 24th of year”
Not that anyone gives a rats ass about Haven Trust Bank of Duluth, Ga. anyways wherever the hell that is.
And this after the close, a bunch of home builder ratings cuts:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Fitch-cuts-some-homebuilder-ratings/story.aspx?guid={B6C379A4-C975-4052-AFCE-0EE5228C89D1}&dist=hplatest
How was SRS able to hit $295 a few weeks ago?
SRS @ $295? Momentum players and a lot of people trapped on the wrong side of a market move.
How embarrassing … Canada providing $3.5 billion to the U S automakers …
if your prepared to keep an open mind and trade what you see then this market is full of oppurtunity
see the last two smack downs on the SPY….Dec 1 and Dec 11 where was the volume? and this morning the futes down large at the open and what happens? we close green on the day and the volume is heavier than yesterday…. buyers are in control of the market at this time.
Nov 4/5 th is where the market wants to trade to over the coming weeks.
Doh! Deer in the headlights moment, and yes, pretty stupid. Plus, prohibited from day-trading,required to hold for min 6 months, or min 30 days, if I move to another proshares fund. I’m having a heart attack every so often, watching the market too much. Should just refrain.
We are not pleased with our tax dollars supporting the Autos but this is political posturing right now by the Conservatives to appease the Liberals and the NDP.
Canada…right now our parliament is suspended – to avoid a non confidence vote over the proposed budget- and the opposition parties are in cahoots to kick the Conservative Minority out of office once the parliament reopens in January….this aid is pandering to the opposition parties nothing more.
The dregs of real estate on a dead cat bounce. That’s some funny shit. It’s almost like someone knows where all the money is. LMAO!!
Is that homo devildog observing a day of silence today or just a scared pussy? Take note, long DXO and long dug. It was one of my best weeks in some time with god like minis trades and a nice paired trading book. I will continue to let out longs and add to inverses much like fly as I believe this is a “Weekend at Bernies” market. Hell maybe even that lapdog will show his head again next week and we can be short bus friends. Or not.
Off to fuck ducatis wife.
Hubris kills.
Conservatives have a minority government at the moment they fell about 10 seats short of gaining a majority. the opposition parties are willing to form a coalition govt to take power away from the Conservatives. Needless to say things are a bit dicey up here until parliamnet resumes in the new year.
Parliamentary democracies have some interesting quirks.
There’s air pockets all over this crazy stock market. I parked my entire portfolio. And that’s saying a lot coming from Donny. It’s very simple, the risk is not worth the reward, especially if you have healthy profits this year. I’m sure I’ll dip my toe back in soon, but I want to see more clarity.
We are going higher for now.
Market going higher on the shittiest news. Imagine if we get any good news?
There will be a time to short but now isn’t the time.
WY is gonna die.
The Fly says:
“Actually, more people are bullish here than bearish. They’ve been giving me shit, over the past two weeks.”
So just like last week, they are gloating over the Friday ‘rally’ that only left us DOWN for the week?
(looking around for the funnel… where the hell is that thing?)
Fly, you are the.. uhh, fly, I guess.
Critics say taxpayers may be paying for AIG’s discounts
American International Group is engaging in extreme price cuts to hang onto market share and may be using money from its federal bailout to pay for it, insurance insiders said. The CEO of Liberty Mutual said AIG is “doing some very stupid things” that are in danger of destabilizing the insurance market. An AIG spokesman denied that it is cutting prices. FinancialWeek/Reuters (11 Dec.)
Thanks Fly for that Yankees guy video – thanks for reminding me there really are people like him.
Big volume bears hold the cards and they want an orderly deflation, this was already announced over thanksgiving dinner or were you out back smoking a joint with your cousin? The market is left to small hands, and trade like mud, until there is another announcement. Go buy presents now.
About 5 months ago we were also “going up on bad news” “shaking off the bad news etc”. then it all got worse.. now everyone is saying it all over again..
^^
maybe it isn’t news that drives markets….hmmmmm
How about some common sense for you… Christmas rally, all the end of year sellers are done.. Oil has retraced below the 76% level and a retrace to 61.8% level is common sense at above $66. Ur ego driven mind makes you unlikely to ever make money imo. I think ur fake as you have no real track record and its all blah blah with sheep that have no intellect of there own. If you really need a common sense play DXO to above 5 or above $66 for oil.
The Genius
The header already has your name in it, genius.
Good luck in trading that domain name.
You appear to be “brand damaged.”
Get it, genius?
DXO = 0
I’m a fan of The Fly, having been introduced indirectly through Howard, and find the site and comments a great resource, including input from the additional members of The Fly’s army. Perhaps I’ll throw more compliments around when Disqus is installed, if it’s coming. I’ve given credit to The Fly on twitter. My point in commenting right now is to express thanks, particularly as a counter to the last word of: “I’ve been blogging like the wind, mind you, all for naught.” Certainly not for “naught” since The Fly’s timely (sometimes even in advance) sharing of all his major market moves PLUS his explanation and context for them has been very helpful. Hope the double underlined ads and any further soft form of monetization, as well as feedback helpfulness from commentators for processing in the trading, provide additional encouragement and incentives to keep it up!
Tony: DXO cannot go to zero actually. And its actually trading near its theoretical floor. If you don’t know about DXO and it appears you don’t you should check out the Minyanville article, it details it very well.
— Note when I say cannot I am speaking in reality and not in the true meaning unless you believe the Messiah will give oil away free.
Fly Ducati’s wife sends her regards.
I only hear people ramble on here about emotional blah blah. The sad truth is in real life if you trade like that you will always buy high sell low. True T/A beats all these garbage ramblings. But like watching Paris Hilton get fucked in the dark. Its well errrr funny 🙂
Not as funny as the sad truth of a brand damaged genius.
gapyap,
Got a link?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jz8wU9DdbqU
Something to brighten up the day
look if your so great do this. Give me between 1-3 stocks between 2-4 weeks out. You have to hold onto them for 2 or more days at the least though Fly and lets just see how you really do 🙂 Its a challenge. Odds are you can’t turn a profit 1 to 3 that means you can even average down into just one stock but only up to 3 buys/sells.. Do you have any balls to take the challenge
FAS lol omg what garbage looks like a great short
Fly’s right most people here were on balance slightly bullish over the past two weeks.
However it was almost illegal to be bullish on Friday morning which is why the market went up.
There are two interesting development away from the market that i think quite important.
The continued weakness of the dollar against the Euro and the higher Aussie. Aussie is as I keep saying an important liquidity marker.
Gold also held in nicely.
Perhaps the reflation is happening a little quicker than we think.
j
what do you attribute to the weaker dollar. Are the maasive layoffs announced lending to this. What is unemployment in Euro ZOne and in Australia like
Moe
I think dollar liquidity is starting to make its way through the system as the aussie in particular (along with gold and the Euro Yen) are great proxies for risk appetite.
It may not mean that US stock don’t have further to fall, but they won’t be falling because of liquidity tension in the dollar system by the looks of things.
The Aussie has always been a great marker for global liquidity conditions. Risky assets could be a reasonable bet for the short term.
If I’m right it makes selected bank stocks that don’t have a problem with level 3 assets a great buy.
The Eurozone is basically a shit hole and always will be. Unemployment is always high there.
Aussie unemployment is around 4.2%, but it will go up as the economy has deleveraged.
I have had so much into DXO that I have been thinking seriously about ALL the risks I am facing – including – (now is this too far out and not a real worry?) the idea that whoever runs DXO could screw up and go bankrupt? How possible is that?
IT Staff:
Ban the one called “Genius.” He appears to be a fucking childish idiot.
Thanks.
The problem is that there are no banks without level 3 assets. They may not have been rated level 3 but they all have shit on the books. It will be interesting to see what Goldman and Morgan have to say this week on their conf. calls. I am still short Goldman. Not much though as I covered last week during that fucking mad run it had. I have been shorting Goldman all year. The model is broken. No more huge leverage for prop trading. It will be an interesting day on Tuesday.
That being said, with this crazy market goldman could really shit the bed and then go higher
Joe:
A previous downside oil etf, DTO, went to zero.
Just saying.
I don’t understand the DXO trade. China announced a shut down of projects and machinery. There is so much supply of oil that they are storing it in tankers. The OPEC may cut, but I don’t think it will do much. May for a really short term intraday trade. But I would not want to be long oil. With that being said I am short XOM right now and that bitch has been kicking my ass. I will win the war though as she goes back down to 70
That rant was awesome.
-DT
Look keep it simple. Oil goes from a parabolic high of the upper 140s a joke… Now in the lower 40s another joke. Whats half of 140? Whats the cost to produce a barrel of oil? Whats a rational price in time for oil or in Fibonacci land if you trade to 61.8 you are likely to go to 38% but if you break 61.8 and go to 76.4 you likely will go to 61.8%. That is the nature of price or the cycle of most living beings in growth/decline. It happens all the time its just most don’t see it. So if you just get relative short term balance 66.58 would be relative. Ok it goes crazy to 50% that is $81.99 or completes a full cycle and goes to $91.39 or 38%. Balance all of that out with divergences/SNR levels or whatever other conventional indicators/factors and your upside in time is very much in your favor.
Ok ok so I have been talking the DXO book for awhile now and I have built a war chest at $2.72 with the ability to buy about 30% more should it fall under that number. I shit you not about 2 years ago I missed out on a big riverboat gamble in crude that would have yielded me a bountiful harvest. Oddly I still remember that day when I debated putting up a very large directional on oil and it irks me still today that I could miss that opportunity again, I will not miss it this time. Keep in mind I have earmarked this money and marked it to zero as a risk, unlike most of you people that only think of making pie in the sky money I only worry about losing money, the wins will take care of themselves its the losses you must control. But I digress, my instrument for this adventure out to sea is DXO and my time frame is 18 months, after that I will be happy to re-assess and see if my strategy has worked. Bottom line I am not looking for a quick 30% gain, I am looking for big dicked take it to $16 a share gains. So anyway here is the article I have been referencing from Minyanville, I could care less what you think or advise so save your breath.
—
DXO
“The ETN tracks futures contracts on light sweet crude oil (WTI), and reflects the performance of crude oil.
And guess what? DXO has beaten expectations! Crude is down something like 70% in the past 6 months, and DXO has only lost 90%. Woo-hoo!
And it can never get to 0, unless crude drops over 50% in one day. Remember – this is reset each day.
With all that being said, I believe they do de-list somewhere along the way. But that too is above zero. So you’re probably pretty close to a floor in DXO. Which I realize is a very bold statement about something with a full of “2.” Maybe they can turn it into 3x crude, then ride a little oil gusher.
And since we’ve returned to the topic of double leverage, let me clarify the idea of tracking error, which I think is being increasingly misused to describe what happens to, say, DUG, which has gone nowhere amid an implosion in IYE, the ETF it ostensibly tracks.
That’s not a tracking error – it’s just the way the fund is designed. It’s Compounding Gone Wild. Double-leveraged ETFs do no worse a job of tracking than, say, IYE itself, which tracks the Dow Jones Energy Index.
It’s just the design itself that’s flawed.
Yours,
Professor Warner”
T-MOE – If you don’t understand it don’t trade it, I am not being sarcastic either. You should only trade what you understand. But what you are missing is what will happen to Russia and the dirty Arabs and the other worthless oil countries should oil stay down here. They have budgeted for $70 – $100 oil for 2009 and 2010. At $40 they go bankrupt. Its the same thing that would happen should 50% of our population in the US decide to stop paying taxes and say fuck you suck a dick bitch. This my friend will not happen to these Arabs, bottom line call me what you want but it won’t. You have to know how these people think and eat and breathe, they are full of evil and all kinds of shit. They will cut off the oil, create fake kidnappings and bombings and all other sorts of fuckery to re-inflate the price. Don’t believe me just ask John D’Agastino, he knows those people well and would tell you the same thing and he’s right. That city of gold didn’t get built on $25 oil and won’t survive on it either.
Trade accordingly.
I will dance on your DXO driven grave, fuckface.
i have no faith in the crude trade and would be surprised if it ever prints above 60 over the course of the next year.
Fellas
Ever seen oil take a tumble like the several moves down to 10 bucks and what happens? The Saudi hammer would come down really quick and put a stop to it.
There’s geo-political shit going on at the moment that suits the Saudi’s with a lower oil price. It makes Iran’s troubles harder and could cause some serious political issues such as slowing down their attempt at obtaining the bomb. A lower oil price also helps the US deal with that idiot south of the border as well as the Russians who are getting far to close to Iran for the Saudis comfort.
When the Saudi towel heads think they’ve been punished enough or that it starts effecting their own economy they’ll swing the oil price higher. We may not be too far away for that to happen.
Several diary entries made during the great depression by a lawyer in regards to real estate and the stock market.
http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/history-lesson
/2008/10/23/depression-diary
We are bulling and I hate it. It is a fucking lie. Maybe it’s me? Maybe I’m wrong and everything is peaches and apple sauce? Maybe I’m a fucktard who has no idea how economies function? I eat line drives to old mens faces! for breakfast and laugh till dawn. Maybe I’m fucked and America is groovy? Perhaps Fonzie isn’t a lot older than the girls he picks up? Maybe I’ll worship the sun on Sunday and fuck the umbrella when it rains, not skerd at all.
New lows this month
John Mauldin, in his recent letter says that:
As an aside, if it looks like Bernanke and Paulson are making all their policy moves “on the fly,” it is because that is exactly what they are doing.
Fly, can you tell us what this means?
? ;->
From the WSJ, ’nuff said:
Older, Jewish investors called Mr. Madoff ” ‘the Jewish bond,’ ” says Ken Phillips, head of a Boulder, Colo., investment firm. “It paid 8% to 12%, every year, no matter what.”
j … I’m having a difficult time with this line in your post “We may not be too far away for that to happen.” Sheesh man, it was only 5 months ago that oil was in the $140s. Don’t you think it’s going to take at least 2 to 3 years of really cheap oil for your theory to take hold?
“The Jewish Bond”
ROTFLMFAO
Late Saturday night thought (it is in Tokyo here)…
Has this blog site added to my bottom line? Well, occasionally but not really. Yet, I like it here, because of the profanity.
.
j – Looks like we are the only ones that knows or likes to admit they know the worthlessness of the Arabs and oil countries. Those who can’t see it will be highly surprised with these “mysterious attacks” or “explosions” start happening. But if you disagree by all mean DEE should suit you well.
He kicks me when the market is up… woof
gapping – Thanks for the post on the DXO from Minyanville.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v730/xxchichixx/CartoonBear.jpg
They are ALL fucking idiots and thieves:
On Tuesday, this bitch http://www.maxamcapital.com/biographies.htm#manzke was on CNBC:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=956294201
On Friday she is quoted in the WSJ after reporting a $280 million Madoff loss: “I’m wiped out,” said Sandra Manzke, Maxam’s founder and chairman. The Darien, Conn., fund of hedge funds will have to close as a result of the losses, she said.”
What the fuck was she doing to earn her commissions: mailing off the checks to Bernie?
The thing is that we are in a bear market. But history teaches us that we might only be half way thru any suckers rally.
Not until the whole world is ‘back in’ and we are all convinced the new bull is for real, will we fall 20-30% again. Sentiment is still very bearish. Look at the II survey and posts on blogs.
The fly knows this and why is is acting a bit more cautiously of late.
So we could rally another 20%+ from here. Thats a fact. The 30s etc shows us this. So, being short here means you have a probability of being wrong more.
To the tune of ~20% and weeks/months of pain. (mental capital, you see).
So being short here has a probability of being crappy coz you could have tons of pain and only get out flat/small up by the time the next correction comes. Thats if the market hasnt worn you out by then.
Private Parts
So it’s “Divine Right” that we rally?
Do you believe we should teach creationism in schools as well?
Private Parts-
That was one of the more bullshit posts I have read in a while.
“So we could rally another 20%+ from here. Thats a fact. The 30s etc shows us this. So, being short here means you have a probability of being wrong more.”
Yeah…and I COULD bang Yasmine Bleeth tonight, but that doesn’t make it FACT. Absurd. The fact is that no one knows how long this “rally” will last. There is no playbook for this shit. I know a dickload of professional money managers (not piss ant brokers) and they all say the same exact thing, “What a fucked up market”. Expect the unexpected. The fact that you think we COULD rally another 20-30% from here makes me even more comfortable being big time short. Good day.
Fox-
One thing you can almost always depend on in the intermediate time frame is that the market will act in cycles- no matter what the outside economic influence.
Yes, the thirties saw some of our sharpest and deepest drops in modern market history, in an environment very similar to this one. It also saw some of its largest gains as well. If there is one thing we can rely on in market study, it is reversion to the mean.
This is of course no day trader analysis, so, again IMHO, trading this market should take one of two methods:
Either a single cycle visioned intermediate-to-long term position with the hard stomach for increased drawdown, or an extremely cautious minute to minute well hedged market following strategy that risks only small portions of ones portfolio for brief periods of time.
Both methodologies in this market will lead to hypertension difficulties, but the latter will demand far more of one’s attention and should probably only be attempted by those who do just this for a living.
___
does anyone really know for sure? no..
true awful facts everywhere… and we rally, govt speaks about how they can solve america´s problems ,we rally even more.
i guess expecting the unexpected can be the only valid strategy.
Aside to the “Genius:” if one wished to retain that nom de guerre sans ridicule, one might defer the oafish challenging in favor of a strong review of one’s plural possessive pronouns.
___
New lows this month.
Could it be this simple?
We had one of the longest cyclical bull markets without a 20% correction (2003-2007). Now we have the longest bear market without a sustained rally (2007-????).
Longs are fucked!
Fox,
“”
The fact that you think we COULD rally another 20-30% from here makes me even more comfortable being big time short. Good day.
This trading/investment strategy that you have just outlined is truly odd and should cause all concern.
I wish you luck.
Tony, I am mentioning probabilities based on historical price action. Why you bring divinity into the conversation i am not entirely sure. Have a good weekend.