We are getting to a point where the weak companies are starting to underperform the well managed. Since the bottom, pretty much everything went up, in convoy formation. There was no premium put on stock picking, since melt up was contagious. Over the past year, I suspended listening to conference calls, speaking with management, and crunching numbers, because it was pointless. However, I am starting to notice a divergence between the weak and the strong. As a result, I have been putting in a lot of hours again, going over SEC documents, listening to calls and speaking with idiots at investor relations.
As earnings normalize, it’s important to understand what valuations to apply to stocks, with reference to underlying industry. For example, traditionally, semiconductor stocks trade at a premium to industrials and big banks trade at a discount to asset managers. There is a reason why Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] is trading at such a low valuation, as well as Amazon.com, Inc. [[AMZN]] trading so richly. The key is to compare companies within their respective sectors and look for anomalies and/or disconnects from reality.
For example: Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] is trading at a discount to Newell Rubbermaid Inc. [[NWL]] , Whirlpool Corporation [[WHR]] , [[NPK]] and Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, Inc. [[MSO]] on a FPE, P/B basis. Why?
Well, we can speculate that other companies are eating into JAH’s shelf space or people are tentative about going long Jarden due to their sensitivity to retail trends. In my opinion, and this is an educated bet, investors are fucking smoking jumbos, selling JAH at 10x eps.
Get your spreadsheets out and start comparing valuations and look for sectors that have earnings power.
Who has earnings power?
Any company that services the global growth story, like Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , Eastman Chemical Company [[EMN]] , Lubrizol Corporation [[LZ]] or Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] . Try to avoid niche plays, unless of course you already have ample exposure to leadership stocks. Often times, people fuck themselves by trying to be too smart, via buying dogs. Truth be known, I have done this to myself on numerous occasions. Aside from the crappy stocks that you know me for (FTK, GMXR, SD, etc), I own a plethora of leadership names, like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Eastman Chemical Company [[EMN]] , Cytec Industries Inc. [[CYT]] , [[CBD]] , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) [[TEVA]] , Citigroup Inc. [[C]] and ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] .
Sometime soon, as the economy improves, certain sectors will be bought up by money managers, due to the important theory of “multiple expansion.”
What does that mean?
Answer: go fuck yourself.
Do some research and try to avoid them fucking murderholes.
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For the record, I completely disagree with DENNINGER, regarding CDO’s. AGAIN, Goldman sells to large banks and institutions, not Mom and Pops. Furthermore, if someone wants BBB exposure, it should not matter if a short seller concocted the CDO or not. It is what it is.
If I want low grade exposure, I know exactly what to buy, as did all of Goldman’s customers.
I would side with DENNINGER, only regarding direct sales of CDO’s, CLO’s and CMO’s to Joe Public aka people not in the know or without sophistication
This is a HUGE difference.