Ten thousand apologies for the lack of rapid fire content on this magical reversal day. My predictions of doom have fallen short for the day. However, I beg you to take notice that I am positioned perfectly, short XLE with leverage, long SPY, long TLT. None of these ideas were granted to me in my dreams or by the shadows talking to me at my in house urinal. All of them were the product of Exodus.
The reversal was and is magnificent. The payroll numbers caused Fed’s Mester to offer more of her sagely advice as to when we should hike rates: she wants it often and with a relentless appeal.
Nevertheless, the bear class is a very weak and drug addled personnel. For the most part, these are unhappy people who just want the world to burn, so that everyone else could wallow in their misery. But the facts remain: this rally is of the stupid varietal and it will be checked hard within three weeks hence. That’s been my hard line in the sand all along.
I’m long SPY from $202.15 and will not sell it before April the 8th. My XLE short will begin to unwind soon. That’s about all I will sell about that to non-paying, bedraggled members of the reader class.
Wish me good fortune and a safe flight, for I have visions ofa Twilight Zone type creature menacing my engine amidst the lightning and the thunder right outside my airplane window.
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We may revel in other people’s misery but at least we can spot a Con game
Knowing who wins each round of that game is what makes you money, not observing that a game is taking place.
Even the homeless know the market is being manipulated by central banks. It’s common knowledge.
You know its a manipulated game……and yet you think there is a skill in picking the winner.
My guess is that if youve been right in picking the winner of any given round…..its been dumb luck.
Rephrase: we Speak-Out the con especially when national historical and generational
consequences ( extra rolling on the floor )
malice devastation waste ahead for you filth
Us Bears also know that a .90% move up on the Yen today that fueled this rally will hurt Japan so much when they open on Monday. They were down 3% last night, how ugly can it get on Monday? Yes, like poker, Abe may try and up the ante on a last minute stimulus.But they are hurting, they blew their wad in 2015 QQE. Nothing is working. Us Bears are Kind, we care about the world and have been trying to warn of the mess that Central Bankers have created.
Market’s playing April fools games….
cant believe vix is 13.04
Yessir.
Markets don’t seem so concerned about the drop in oil.
If erl drops then that might be good for other businesses, although not for erl stocks.
Whether the Fed Bad Cops get their temporary pullback or not, I think other stocks will do well going forward, even if erl stocks don’t. But I’m unclear about where erl is going right now.
I mean if erl stays low. I don’t expect erl to head back down to the lows or anything like that.
Expectations are meaningless in this game.
El Rey, what we make money on here are expectations that work out as expected. But if you have something more meaningful, then feel free to express it, by all means. Unless all you know how to do is criticize others.
Buy thestreet.com and make it urban/hiphop.
The only solace for the bears at this point is that the VIX rarely goes under 10 and it’s at 13 now.
Unfortunately for them, at the rate this market has been flying, the VIX should hit 10 next week and continue down to the lowest levels in history.
I think it’s time for a contest to see when can predict the value of the VIX at the bottom.
My guess is 9.4
Unless youre being Sardonic, Think more. Pushing vix sub 12 5 sub 12 not the same as 14 13. Gets more difficult not a rate thing. Logarithmically more difficult each step
Since Feb 11, more traders have believed in higher prices than not (duh). At some point this belief will change (double duh). It’s not about being right or wrong about the bullshit global economy, the Fed, oil or even the price of Islamic gold scimitars. It’s about knowing what people will believe and commit to that matters. We don’t get extra basis points of return because we understand the correct valuations for stocks, oil, gold, etc.–i.e, the way things “should” be. Put that in your crack pipe and smoke it on it for a while.
I found it interesting that more traders like yourself surfaced out of nowhere to preach of lower prices back in February.
I know. Hindsight is always 20/20. Some of us are lucky sometimes, and some are not. Any trade can go “wrong” at anytime, despite what you think is good analysis, as can market calls. I accept that. I’m still positive for the year +5%, so not so bad.
Yeah, just found it odd that the confidence at the lows prompted so many to emerge from the shadows.
Nice work on that 5%.
Wow. The Fed’s Bad Cops weren’t able to get their pullback, at least not this week.
“Nevertheless, the bear class is a very weak and drug addled personnel. For the most part, these are unhappy people who just want the world to burn.”
– The Fly, Fri Apr 1, 2016 2:20pm EST
“Deep down, all I want is for the market to burn.”
– The Fly, Thu Mar 31, 2016 2:08pm EST
Fly, release your inner bear! But stay off the drugs. We’ll need you clear-headed to guide us through April.
Safe travels
Good fortune Fly, airplanes aren’t your everyday time traveling space machine.
So, stocks decoupled a little bit from oil this week. That’s worth noting. What are bears going to be fed next week? Trannies are rolling over? This seems like a good spot to chill. Thoughts?
Fly – you were DEAD WRONG THIS A.M.? What happened? The market flew higher? I AM SORRY I read your post this a.m. –
Thr only top fly has called right lately is the Trump top
That’s just low level trolling, while the fly is doing more gangster in a day, than you do in a year. Good day.