The S&P traded in a silly manner today, pressing higher without much by the way of a rotation lower.  The action had the strong scent of big money sloshing around, it smells like chemicals.  We finally rotated lower in the last half hour of trade, but not quite enough to allow me entry on the long side.

For the day I was up 1.5 trading discretionary using the Bossram cycle, and Elroi was down 1 handle.  Most of that vertical movement was untradeable with my toolbox.

It became clear early on I wouldn’t have much action in the /ES so I turned my focus to the stocks.  For some reason, likely the lower leverage, I’m much more careless with my entries.  I identified a quality entry point in BBRY today, but with the broad markets busting through resistance with ease I rushed my entry.  The trade ended up working out so far, but unnecessary risk was taken.  That’s the over analytic, slightly perturbed me talking about BBRY.

I’ve seen this daily chart pattern play out 100s of times: a stock is in a long trend, by long I mean months, quarters, or years.  Then it makes a sharp move higher (or lower) to a reference point, like the 9ema.  Then it throws down some price action that forms a letter ‘N’.  You buy that setup.  You buy that setup every time.  That was the case in BBRY today.  Having Cool Hand Luke aka #voodooshark aka RaginCajun as your wingman makes the trade even easier.  This evening I’ll be donning a Canadian belt buckle at the local grocery, and tomorrow a full Canadian tuxedo, regardless of the heat or itinerary.   Please refer to me as Drake, the name of all Canadian men.  That’s the long hair don’t care me talking about smacking BBRY around.

Sometimes a beautiful woman sullies her entire appearance by lacking confidence.  Take 20 minutes to practice your posture and enjoy the confidence it brings you.  Raul writes for the ladies.

I scored big wins in YGE, YELP, BBRY, AIXG, and TRLA today.

FB, USO, and END lagged. Meanwhile, RVLT was beaten over the head with a sack of nickels.  They need to land some big retrofits and blow the news out on the wires.  I have to stick with this name.  You probably shouldn’t.  This isn’t some hot sexy trade, like you all crave so rabidly.  This is a cold, passive aggressive relationship that will eventually fruit into something beautiful after several months of therapy.  At that point things will warm up.  Until then it’s the highs and lows of mood swings and recovery.  It’s a long way, to the top, if you want to rock and roll.

I added to RVLT today.

http://youtu.be/pNHLobxZsHA

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I really like the feel I had trading the /ES_F today.  I’ve currently pigeonholed my discretionary trading to conform to the BOSSRAM ALPHA cycle.  This prevents me rushing.  It allows me to measure where we are in the cycle after some broad redundantly calls my phone so she can hear herself talk and position (or hand sit) accordingly.

You see, plates, I juggle so many.

One of my favorite trades in the market requires full attention because it can fly in your face quickly.  I didn’t want to stop trading the chart picture simply because my day job doesn’t afford me focus so I automated it.  This was the birth of ELROI.

Elroi doesn’t trade the picture as profitably as me.  But what he lacks in profitability Elroi makes up in consistency.  Elroi bagged 3.75 handles in profit today on trades that were too racy for me.  I on the other hand, wielding Bossram, made $25 or 0.50 handles.

But it was fun to watch Elroi go to work while I waited for the market to come into the Bossram wheelhouse.  This week I reset my account to $10k: five for me, five for Elroi, and I pulled the rest out to buy cat food.

You see, trading the /ES since April has been by and large a circle jerk and a dangerous one at that.  It came down to losing focus.  I’ve…courourrrected the problem and put several policies and procedures in place to ensure the new habits stick.  My future’s trading operation is looking more like a Fortune 500 company every week.  Goodness, companies like AMZN, GOOG, and SBUX aren’t on these lists by luck.

Learn from their cultures.

Now it’s exciting and I’m happy to fire up my futures every morning.  It’s me verses Elroi.  So far he’s winning.

ON TO STOCKS:

I sold AMBA entirely today.  I told you very clearly I was taking this cheap trick for 10 percent and then taking my business elsewhere.  AMBA fucked me once, I fucked AMBA once.  Perhaps after earnings we can make love, or something.  I earned about 8 percent on the trade.  It was a 12 percent position.

I took profits in Ford(s) because I was watching the /ES_F weaken.  It’s nothing personal.  I still have a 5% position.

My top performers were END and YGE.

RVLT continues to ‘suck goat’ instead of retrofitting Manhattan with LEDs.  Get to work you zoophiles.

I bumped my cash up above 25 percent and was up 1.75 percent on the day.  I needed it.  One thing is certain.  When RVLT stops going down…I’m forecasting champagne showers.

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I cannot say with any certainty if it made sense to eat twenty four dollars’ worth of grilled cheeses, but I can tell you that meal was the only thing that excited me today.  Normally, in this country, I should be excited that a three day weekend approaches.  As a matter of fact, during our last three day weekend, I ran an exciting back test on the /ES that has been profitable.

I expect this weekend’s research to further my quest to dominate the S&P 500.

But I don’t look to the weekend with glee.  Instead I have been plagued by nightmares of global conflict.  As much as I enjoy speculating during the turmoil, my vibe took a negative turn today.  It rolled over, if you will.

Generation X and Y have mostly escaped war.  There have been conflicts. Good people have been sent in to foreign countries to bring the fight to the villains, but no full fledged war has occurred.  And I’m happy to live in boring times.  Perhaps I’m getting older and becoming more aware of global brutality, and perhaps I should just tell my subconscious to eat a donut and STFU.  But I really don’t like this situation…this situation in Syria.

I had a dream a few weeks back that an unknown villain nuked the entire taiga, destroying the atmosphere and ending the world.  That’s the kind of vibe I’m feeling.

I’m also getting bled out every day by RVLT, WTF is going on over there?  This crap still doesn’t look buyable.  It’s almost surreal how poorly this stock is behaving.

The LVN I noted this morning at 1641.75 never came into play today.  Instead it’s been a risk averse tape, but mostly the action has a smack of indecision and chop.

I raised a bit more cash, taking anther scale in AMBA for a win and closing ENPH for a loss.  ENPH is entirely without trend here, IMO.  I was playing for quick strength to trigger a short squeeze.  It never materialized and I was too slow with my exit.  Then I bottom ticked the sale today without even queuing up the chart.  This too was quite perturbing.

My futures workstation completely broke today, froze, and needed a hard restart.  Brutal.  You know…the restart where you hold the power button for like 10 seconds until POOF, and then an eerie silence falls over the room.  Then you count to ten as slowly as possible, giving the machine the official ‘ten seconds to settle’ before turning it back on.  It worked, and my tools are 90 percent operational going into the close.  My volume-at-price delta is still broken.  Either that or every order today has been executed at the bid (I hope not).

My book is a sea of red except for YGE and FB and all I really want is peace.  I don’t foresee much more action on my behalf into the weekend.

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Taking yourself out of the proverbial shark tank that is the stock market for a few days leads to some interesting observations.  Once outside the tank, you’re better able to observe the water you’ve been swimming around in.  It’s a higher sense of self understanding, if you will.

After buying AMBA Tuesday morning, I’ve been inactive.  This is in part because the purchase took my cash down under six percent.  What little cash I have left must be used to average into CREE and RVLT should the opportunities arise.

Speaking of RVLT, I’m now minus thirty percent on my basis.  Investing, it seems, is a tricky endeavor.  On one hand, I know they have to potential to make hundreds of millions of dollars retrofitting businesses with LEDS.  I also love the vertical model they’ve built with their recent acquisitions.  On the other hand, I’m in an ugly chart in a company that was up over 600 percent in one year’s time.  Yeah…

But I’m keeping my investor hat on and entrenching into the LED industry.  CREE, AIXG, and RVLT are multi quarter holdings.

Just before heading out last week, I increased my oil exposure.  Nice timing, yes?  I still have positions in END, MHR, and USO.  Until the Libyans find out they didn’t in fact kill Doc Brown because Mike Fox used the time machine to warn him to wear a vest, I’m sticking with these positions.  I may trim a bit of exposure into further strength.

I passed through no less than four po-dung towns on my travels, and in every case I depended on YELP to find my palatable food with a reasonable atmosphere.  I did the same in Traverse City, a much finer and top hatted community.  Why not use Google?  Because the YELP interface is BETTER, you jack asses.

ENPH and YGE are both lit sticks of dynamite.  I intend to stick said dynamite in the tail pipes of the shortmobile.

LO will succeed in addicting teenagers to Blu Eciggarets and I will collect a lovely coupon, much higher than any government or corporate paper, at little or no risk to my person.  Same goes for O, except for the teenager part.

IMMR, F, and FB round out my book of long positions.

I’ll be back this evening with an update on Bossram Alpha and El Roi, my drone strike robots.

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My book recaptured over 1.5 percent of the most recent losses today if you don’t count RVLT.  Unfortunately for the Raul, RVLT very much indeed counts, and today’s respite was much less.

BLAST.

A stock down big during an all-up tape is like a cold dagger to the back.  The blade is chilled even further, perhaps dipped in liquid nitrogen, when a stock gets crushed on no news…simply more sellers than buyers.  But since said blade has been dipped in liquid cold nitrogen with the intent of delivering a shrilling cold death blow it is brittle.  Pathetically brittle in fact, to the point where my Greek bones, formed atop Mount Olympus, shatter the dagger into a million tiny fragments at the point of contact.

Such is the eventual fate of those who bet against me in RVLT.  Of that you can rest assured. I added to my position today.

Other interesting thoughts toddling through my mind: I started getting the itch to size my O long back up yesterday.  I didn’t actively listen, and the thought continued in my mind all day, like a catchy merry-go-round jingle.  I like O down here, but I know so little about REITS and RATES and ROUTS which made me a bit abash to sounds the horns.  Consider this: O is unch on YTD and pays a 5.5% coupon.  If you didn’t get a piece of the capital appreciation, you’re still making bank.  Relax, and wade into this space before it is again en vogue.

YGE was my largest position coming into the day.  I’ve been in this name for quite a while, wondering if I’d one day wakeup to a Chinese air raid, a Red Dawn of sorts.  It hasn’t happened yet.  The Chinese have been very kind to me because I’m a diplomatic gent.  Respect is important in all cultures.  That being said I consider this week’s action is YGE to be of the do-or-die ­variety because we’ve reached a critical juncture on the chart that can explode in either direction.  Odds favor the long side still, so I’m expecting the gods to shine on these solar panels.

The tape as dictated by the /ES got a bit ahead of itself today.  This became evident when the market didn’t rotate off the value hump at 1652.25.  Given the weight of tomorrow’s Fed talk and the confluence of value around these levels, to disregard them and print higher seemed either surprisingly bullish or getting a bit ahead of ourselves.  The market, our favorite arbiter, answered that question by swiftly correcting the tape into the bell.  It was nothing more than a ruler slap to the bull’s knuckles IMHO.

Being about 85% long, I clearly am free of bias.

But seriously, I work hard to remain objective in my profile analysis.

Until tomorrow,

Raul

 

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As quiet as today seemed, I was able to advance my portfolio by over 1 percent today.  Leading the way were my LED players, RVLT, CREE, and AIXG.  This basket of securities currently represents 23 percent of my portfolio and I intend to make it much larger, perhaps even as large as 50 percent of my book.

That’s how much conviction I have in lighting grade LEDs.

I intend to make a very concentrated bet and advance my family to the next level of society, top hats.  If anyone can present one iota of evidence contrary to the eventual 100% adoption rate of LEDs in the United States, please do so now.  And don’t feed me that plasma light bullshit, I’ve tested these things and I’m wholeheartedly unimpressed by both the performance and the economics.

I’m slowing my swing portfolio down a bit, instead focusing on building into names I believe add value to society, which is why I started buying cigarette marker LO into the bell.  I’m essentially parking money in the Newport Cigarette maker, planning to earn the very handsome coupon while they add value to the smoking community.  How?  The Blu eCigarette.  When LO took over Blu and rolled it out to every convenience station from here to California, they earned the early mover seat in this space.  I like to imagine they have teams of behavioral physiologists and scientists working around the clock to sell more of these disposable vaporizers.  My game plan on LO is to buy weakness, time and time again, and allow the eventual growth from eCigs to buoy the share price enough for the coupon to make me profit.  Fun stuff, I know.  I’m sleeping on some Ford(s) shares the same way.

I have a heterogeneous mixture of other stocks kicking around in the old portfolio, mostly names where I’ve taken the lion share of profits and left a runner on for sport.  Stocks like O, BPZ, ONVO, and IMMR.  I really only see reason to sell BPZ but the others I keep, like collecting baseball cards.

I still have a decent hunk of FB, about 35% of what I consider full size.

I bought more OCZ today.  This is my aggressive pumper.  I’m having a hard time accepting a double top at two bucks.  I’ve questioned this proposition by increasing my size in the name in search of a short term pump.  I’m playing PBF in a similar manner although it has different chart logic.

My other aggressive trade is YGE, which is still huge.

That makes 14 longs, 0 shorts, and 25% cash.  Just writing that out makes me want to sell something and concentrate my eggs…

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The Yen walked down the stairs lockstep with the SPY rise, like mirrors of one another—starting around lunchtime, which pleases me.

Anytime I trade counter-trend, taking a high quality and back tested setup, and I extract money from the market, I feel like I’m getting away with a sophisticated robbery.  I did it to EXK last week and over the last few weeks I’ve done the same long the Japanese Yen.  Now I’m out and a heavy hand is walking the currency lower.  This gives today’s move a carry feel and suggest we need to keep the carry not in the forefront but more so the back burner of our mind as we progress.

Solar stocks are getting the back ally beat down like they were flashing too much swag in the hood, which they were.  However, YGE is Bruce Lee, water, and deflected the aggressive bear bludgeons with finesse. They put out positive guidance before the bell that had everyone a bit taken aback  because they suggested shipments growth was “significantly better” than expected.  So they’re not jawboning about their FUCKING LEADS, like FSLR, they’re talking shipped product.  They’re shipping that Hanna Montana like Rick Ross, from the Phantom.

RVLT is cooling off a bit post earnings and I’m sitting here wondering if I’m about to get AMBA’d aka ambushed by sellers.  So I’m holding back the additional capital I intend to commit to this name.  But rest assured, I intend to own many more shares of RVLT before the year is through.  CREE on the other hand continues to rise, wall of worrying the old men on the sideline.  In other LED news, RBCN spiked lower after reporting unimpressive revenues but the dip was bought.

My only action today was to take a small position in USU.  I’m playing hot potato with a nuke in this name, but I figure I hate solar so much I might as well diversify my energy holdings.

Here’s my book of energy-type stocks, largest to smallest:

YGE, USU, KWK, BPZ

Goldman caught a nasty fade into the bell, I’m not sure how I feel about it, obviously I would have preferred some follow through since it’s my largest holding.  We’re practically back to my cost basis and all I have to show for it is the lint in my pocket as no scales were taken.

For in the futures I took one scalp, to the short side, in the middle of that big afternoon move higher.  I earned a modest $62.50.

My swing book made almost a percent today.  At one point it was up nearly 2 percent.  Cash level is 25 percent.

http://youtu.be/Gf4QSFK1dRE

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It has been one hit after another this week in the solar space, with a big EPS (LPS) whiff by SCTY, the Star Trek of solar stocks.  I don’t really have much to say about this, I’ve always known solar was bipolar with bouts of manic optimism followed by the cold knife of reality.   GREEN ENERGY AFICIONADOS, prepare to receive the thrusting sword of reality to your torso.  Solar has failed you, as will your wind turbines.

We need something better, something nuclear.

Moving on, I see nobody read my call to action at lunchtime, obviously catching turning points in the stock market is of no excitement to people of the internet.  My crowning achievement on the day was riding /ES shorts through the early move lower, booking my gains, then slapping on a full size GS long a few pennies off the low of the day.  Grace under fire it was, executing that move while YGE gets lit the fuck up.

The afternoon was mostly quiet, scalping a long, and then a short amidst the /es chop.  I still hold 30% cash in my swing portfolio, but the net is now long, no hedges to anchor me down should the market set sail Thursday.

For the day, I was down 1 percent in my swing portfolio and up 200 bones or clams or bucks on my futures.

Business owners, do me a favor and go buy some solar panels would ya?

Make sure they’re “Made in China”

Thanks,

Raul

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After FSLR reported weak numbers after hours we saw shares of YGE making a sympathy move lower.  As you all very well [should] know, I sized up my YGE position yesterday.  In fact, I made it full size.

A quick yet perhaps excruciating read of my reactionary opine may give you insight into how I really felt upon receiving my judgment from the market.  Since The STOP Method© is not only preserving but building my emotional capital in futures trading, I thought it best to apply the tool to my YGE trade.  Let’s have a look, shall we?

The cue on the YGE trade is a slight variation.  I haven’t yet been stopped out but from what I saw taking place afterhours and the overall sell flow in the indices, this trade may take some heat.  We’re being proactive.

THE CUE: “WE GONE TAKE SOME HEAT”

 

THE ROUTINE: Stop Method

 

 

• S – Score trades compliance with the trading plan:

Here’s a post on the YGE plan, but I’ll tell you the main talking points and show
you the chart:

Like I said, I corrected course and I’m still riding the name, including taking half my position up Friday’s ramp, so I’m still pretty excited about this trade, all things considered.  Now that I’ve booked some profits, and have a green cushion, I’m sticking to the following plan for the YGE trade, including riding though earnings, if necessary, to achieve my $5.00 target.

The trade carries risk down to $3.25.  And to be honest, that price level is a bit mushy.

I sized up around four bucks and I had a 1/3 position hanging around from $3.09.  The buys brought my cost basis up to $3.70.  I’m targeting $4.30 for my first scale and ~ $4.85 for my second.

The trade carries around a 2:1 risk/reward, and my plan for trading stocks is pretty simple: Trade the pullbacks in trending stocks.

Is YGE trending?  I trade from daily charts, yes it is.

Is YGE pulling back? Yes

At full size on $3.70, with a stop of $3.25, the trade is risking 1 percent of my portfolio.  Perfect.

Trades compliance with the plan: 100% “Oh yeah”

• T – Target logical price levels:

• O – Observe the trend:

• P – Patiently wait for your next opportunity.

For this situation, I’ve fired all my buy bullets, and I have three of four sell bullets loaded in the chamber.  My only opportunity at this point is to stop the trade out, or scale profits.  Until we reach logical levels, I have no reason to sell in any way, shape, or form.

So now we wait as that stock operator fellow who killed himself said.  Odd his writings are immortalized when he’s such a coward, no?  Here’s to hoping evil algos don’t read my blog!  ::clink clink::

Oh and also, let us not forget the reward for such actions…

THE REWARD: BOSS

http://youtu.be/2YcIgow6TDk

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Years of desensitization from a 90’s childhood playing Grand Theft Auto and Doom, watching ultra-violent movies like American History X, and witnessing the opening of the proverbial floodgates via the World Wide Web has made it very difficult to get me excited.  Perhaps that is why I simply cannot get excited about solar technology.  Or, just maybe, it’s because it lacks POWER.

The Italians get me excited with the eCat, but nobody has proven anything yet.

You may be asking yourself, “Why then, Raul, do we see you taking positions in solar stocks so mucho?”  I could cite the momentum as a reason or I could cite our current administration, but the real answer is I just don’t know.  It’s such boring technology.  Remember, I live in one of the least sunny places on the planet, so I’m sure that weighs in on my bias.

FSLR whiffed on earnings, the highlight of their conference call is their ‘pipeline’ of deals, which we’re to believe they’ll close on, and a new partnership with General Electric.  Cool brah, I have a pipeline of deals too, they just keep ignoring my emails (spam).

Solar just doesn’t spin the turbines yet, which brings us back to my primary 2013 thesis, LED lights.  A business can invest in itself TODAY, replace all of their lighting TODAY, and reduce their electric usage by over 20 percent.  The payback period on the investment is quick, one to three years.  Large shop spaces with high intensity discharge lighting can save even MORE.  THIS TECHNOLOGY, my friends, is a step in the right direction.  AND IT MAKES SENSE TO BUSINESSES, because they’re cash flows aren’t jeopardized for ten, fifteen years.  Silly solar salesmen sitting on their leads.

YGE is Chinese, so they have that going for them.  And by that I mean souped up books and a Chairman that will handle any insolent workers.

Aside from being on the wrong end of the FSLR call, I traded spooz really well.  I pulled out my weekly nut today, fading the down moves early on, then fading the up moves in the afternoon.  It was pretty great, 5 planned trades, 0 unplanned.

I bought KWK thinking it could squeeze.  It didn’t, yet.  I still think it’s priced for certain death and with earnings out of the way and our Mideast Embassies closed, perhaps the energy complex could be in for a bit of summer time madness.

I eyeballed OCZ but missed adding, I’m still long.  Something is about to go down in this name, I can feel it in my bones.

To think, I almost sold CREE today.  I can’t belive that thought crosses my mind, ever.  It’s a stupid thought.  Stupid brain, always getting in my way.

I’m off to mop the floors and brood.

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