Today started looking and smelling like a trend day about 10 minutes into the session. It all started with elroi getting worked over like a handrail at a roadside park. He was long at 8:32 am, tricked into going short at 8:57 am, and dealt an uppercut for the knockout at 9:37 am. It was painful to watch him get lit up, but it helped reveal opening type: opening drive. This occurred atop a gap higher, atop of a nasty TWTR beat down, and certainly the big KO deal with GMCR caught a few shorts flat footed.
The stage was set for a rally. We have PPT mojo in effect, too.
I took to my think or swim platform which was giving price quotes only, directed my browser to stockcharts.com and found KNDI was indeed looking sweet this morning. Someone in 12631 had bought it a buck lower. I bought a sizeable chunk, ¾ long. Then I went out just now and bought more.
I am over here, buying Chinese electric car stocks already up eight and a half percent on the day. The market wants to chop more of my nips off, because I lack discipline. Or do I? The KNDI chart looks great, and momo is concentrated to a few studs. Thus I am concentrating on a few studs. This either works very well, or blows my portfolio up.
Run and gun.
In other news, the solid state lighting trade is finally catching a bid, after sucking hard all year. Funny they should perk up while OESX gets crushed post earnings. This is all very perplexing. I am sticking with the theme until March at least, even staying long the cheese fed goats at OESX.
I churned a bit today, waffling on PHOT intraday. I bought MOAR PHOT, like I really needed more, and subsequently sold my new shares and more when a wave of paranoia swept over me. I suddenly felt the fins of degenerate OTC sharks tickling my toes. I bounced.
Then this afternoon, I allocated said funds to GRNH because I realized I needed some pot exposure. They are running hot, so I chalked it up as a lateral move.
I did not make it far this morning, attempting to drive across town proved a waste of time, so I returned home to face the day from the mother ship. I wonder how people hole up for weeks on end, as I find the home to mostly be a sleeping facility with nice groceries.
I was stopped out on AMBA this morning when prices dove down relentlessly. I capitulated into the move. Now I need to figure out where to buy back in because I like this name.
I sold out of YGE. I have had many good trades in this name over the last 12 months. This last one was not, and I booked a 5% loss.
After bidding in the options market for some time on WDAY, I decided I was bananas and canceled my orders. The issue here is the NASDAQ. It simply cannot reclaim the 33ema on the 30 minute chart. Price has become increasingly sensitive to the moving average, and until buyers can hold price above it and get value back to migrating higher, I simply cannot get excite about adding longs.
There was a moment intraday where I thought it might get reclaimed. It was at this moment I bought EXK. Odd, sure, but I like this chart and figure the miners can trade in a microcosm even when the broad equity market is sweating blood.
Elroi is loving February thus far, three-for-three. I can sense he is poised to have a solid month. Here’s the Elroi stats:
If he stays green this month, I will be reinvesting the profits into an upgraded helmet for him. He deserves it.
I have 28% cash and a hard time keeping it. I want to invest it into ideas! But I will sit, and wait for better conditions.
Get exited, for Twitter is about is rock the social media space.
Tomorrow is a big day for the social media industry. Tomorrow we get to see how the market reacts to our first Twitter earnings announcement. Twitter will be joined by special guests YELP! Together the pair makes up a big piece of the social media space.
We have absolutely no way of knowing how the market will react to this news. We do know that up unto this point TWTR has behaved almost exactly the opposite of FB during the first three months of public trade.
Facebook pretty much bottomed after their first call. Will Twitter pretty much top?
It deserves a consideration. On the eve of what promises to be a special day for the market, I have decided to raise some cash and buy popcorn rations. I want to be a casual observer of the action, not a red eyed madman trading the fallout. I want to instead casually observe the action and pick a spot to pounce and eat.
Social media is the ultimate disrupter. Solid state lighting and eCigs and reefer and big, but social media is HUGE. Thus we must continue to find ways to profit from it.
I still hold my $40 cost basis shares in Twitter, and these $57.50 February calls in Facebook. I sold out of the YELP calls for a handsome gain.
With these actions my book is now 30% cash. Cash rich, if you will, and resisting my junky urges to get another fix.
You can only keep a good stock down for so long. This chart is more pent up than a nun in a cucumber field:
Full Disclosure: I bought more FSLR today. I am very long. This trade has substantial risk, like taking a bunch of nuns on a tour of a cucumber field. You may lose money.
Facebook is up big after hours since reporting earnings. We are getting sympathy moves in GRPN, TWTR, ANGI, and YELP. I have a big heaping pile of exposure to all of these names, as well as many others, in a book of risk I can only describe as an autonomous, morphing blob hell bent on consuming all internet traders into its belly.
I continued my buying campaign today, chugging down calls in AMBA and common in CUDA like a raver six molly deep. I have consumed a disgusting amount of caffeine over the last 48 hours, toiling over market charts and building my next empire, something much bigger than anything you see on these interwebs. I smell like a Monster and old ladies are scoffing at me while I walk around in deep-V t-shirts in the arctic north. I do this because it reminds me I am still a living entity and not a zombie robot.
The market has pressed the boot deep into my stomach, yet it cannot make me regurgitate the libations boiling in my gut. I have no interest in ending the party. If I must, I will BE the party.
If my prophecies prove correct, educated guesses built on the knowledge and labor of elder generations, then I stand to make a great sum of money in February. I stand to make a great deal of money and it all starts with tomorrow’s sit. I will sit here, sucking down chili dogs and guzzling flaggarts of ale while the little bitches get their quick fix and take profits. Hell, I may even take out the lever and buy some MOAR.
IMPORTANT SIDE NOTE: LinkedIn is for old men with the poopy trousers to rub one another off. That being said, I have tuned up my profile as part of my continued quest to infiltrate and dominate the business community.
I have already divulged too deeply into my plans. Now I must go spoil my body with iron work designed to create perfect symmetry and posture. Hide your wives and tell you kids about a brave man who roams the internet, in a loin cloth, trading these stocks.
Tue Jan 28, 2014 4:48pm ESTComments Off on The Social Experiment Continues
I have been trading these social media stocks, the fire, names like FB, TWTR, Z, YELP, TRLA, ANGI, and GRPN since I started blogging here back in the cussing days. I would cuss and trade these stocks, like an internet villain of sorts, for my profit and your entertainment.
I was trying to get people excited about my little blog, over here.
I bought weekly calls in YELP and TWTR this afternoon, which prompted distinguished 12631 trader @ckelly44 to question what I was seeing, and also to explain a bit more about the trade. First, what I was seeing is this:
Second, we have Facebook earnings out tomorrow, and I have no idea what they are going to report. However, many social media stocks are in alignment into the earnings. Therefore, I expect a very binary response from the names once Facebook reports. I had a hard time choosing between TWTR and YELP, therefore I picked both—like a good American.
Here’s the YELP:
While we’re looking at charts, here’s FB:
This same look can be seen in Zillow too. ANGI is trading a bit radical, but nice too. Here’s the kicker, I have exposure to all of the above names like some kind of crack head. Should the names bounce, I will have exposure to said names, all of them, until Friday.
Here’s the exposure catalogue:
Z – Feb $95 calls and common stock
GRPN – Feb $12 calls
FB – Feb $57.50 calls
TRLA – Feb $40 calls
TWTR – weekly $65 calls and common
YELP – $80 weekly $80 calls
ANGI – Feb $17.50 calls
Via the above pot of positions, I have a ton of exposure to social media. More exposure then I have ever had in my life, as a matter of fact. The crazy part is, only one of those call positions needs to cooperate and I will profit. Options, when bought with halfway decent timing and proper sizing, offer a much more modest risk profile then I previously understood. Should they all lose after a big FB upset, my book will sink about 3.3% from here. That is losing ALL of the premium. I know, bananas.
I have a short term expectation for movement higher, you see?
MOVING ON…I had some AAPL call exposure left that scalped me today, yet I am still up 1.6% on the day. Leading the way was LEDS. The stock went #BEASTMODE into the bell on heavy volume. Someone wants some LED exposure. I still hold 25% of my risk in the LED industry. I have not sold anything yet. Today it became clear they are making another attempt to take my shares from me. They will fail, again.
I am most bullish on the LED industry. Next is social media, and third is natural gas. It is so freakishly cold here in Michigan, colder then I can remember. Also, they are limiting the propane deliveries to the hilled billy folk, telling them to, “get with the times and hook up to a natural gas pipe.” I was going to get something exotic, like UGAZ, but I opted to follow The Fly into AREX.
I did not sell anything yet, therefore my cash is down below 10 percent. I think we still trade lower from here, but it is also my expectation that individual stocks will be allowed to behave on their own merit. This could be seen today in volatility, which was crushed.
Here’s my plan, we stuck to it today, albeit slightly weaker than expected. Let’s see what tomorrow may bring:
The cold kiss of nature did me a solid this morning, oh about 10 minutes after my morning post, by knocking the humble casa de la Raul completely off the grid. This naturally took Elroi, my servant robot, offline too.
Finally I am back with power to make any last minute adjustments.
Apparently, everyone has gone entirely mad in one short week. These people, in all their brilliance, are tripping over one another to buy the Japanese Yen. Let that simmer a bit…money is making a flight to Japan, who is closer to war now then they have been ever in my lifetime.
It just doesn’t quite add up.
Everyone must be going insane. Or, I may have lost my mind…it’s a theory.
I finally get my electric on and I begin the process of booting Elroi and start rifling through my charts. Much to my chagrin I am down another 3.5% (nearly 7% in two days) but none of this matters.
None of my setups are broken. I don’t have time to explain this right now, but I will.
I bought a small AAPL long. I have more buying I want to do soon too. I have names I want to buy.
So either, I go down in a blaze of glory, or, I make a big win soon.
I actually like my odds here with 12% cash.
Get out there and buy some blood, IMO. Go trashy like TNA.
I had a post written up in Word ready to submit to the fine readers of iBankCoin which was corrected into bits of electronic vapor (no eCig) when this POS Dell machine I am operating from went black.
Thus you get only a synopsis, which is likely 10x better.
We are still in intermediate term balance but that was some harsh selling, intraday. We should keep calm and carry on with our prowess. The only catalyst to a true across-the-board correction is China and Japan starting World War III. This is the talk of the down after Sinzo Abe made some left-handed peace talks in Davos yesterday.
Since the news flow has decided to go full World War III East Asia Edition, my book, 25% nestled into LED stocks, is getting lit up. I ended the day down 3.25%
My Amazon trade has gone wrong mostly because I did not buy enough time. I still want Amazon, but it appears my option strategy was too tight on time. I can either shop for some further dated options, buy the common, or move on. This may be how the addiction forms.
Elroi took no trades today. He does not like long vertical moves. He instead prefers to catch the initial turn in the market. Why he missed the afternoon ramp then? The edge diminishes in the final hour, when the market goes rouge.
You knew it was bound to happen. You knew CREE cannot spelunk after ever single earnings announcement, right? To be honest (and we keep it honest in the humble world of Raul) my feet were chilly to the thought yesterday too. I went into earnings only half sized. Do you know where I was most certainly not reducing LED exposure?
In LEDS, in RVLT…the “party rock”
I floated some statistics about CREE stock behavior during and after their earning’s announcement on the pelican stream. They were rather interesting, really. They are free, too, in case you are wondering. CREE only trades higher 44% of the time after an earnings announcement BUT the session after an earnings announcement closes higher than the open 77% of the time. Hence, therefore, thus…one does not simply trust CREE through earnings.
Quite the contrary, you instead hunt an entry the next day. I bought CREE after it gap filled down and was trading BELOW where it opened today. The deck was stacked for your boy Raul. I made it a full size position, market order like a glut, and the rest is history. They I bought OESX at the low of the day.
Do you see what I did here? I completely pwned the LED trade, live on the interwebs. I am not exactly dancing the tapioca over here yet. My book is 25% concentrated into the LED industry as of the bell. A concentration some of you may perhaps deem mad.
Let me ‘splain something else to you. SINZO ABE will not be instigating any wars in the Far East. He took center stage at Davos proclaiming these words. He instead intends to lead an industrious nation and keep his battles economic in variety. This is very good news for the LEDs we love because most of their tiny components are assembled the laborious hands of China men and women.
Thus I am pressing the envelope with my LED exposure, and I intend do so until I see the whites of Thomas Edison’s eyes—live from the land of the dead. That last sentence makes no sense whatsoever. I possess the will of a madman is what I am trying to convey. Just be aware.
I have lots of other risk, side bets if you will, companies whose goals are all centered upon intelligent humans making more intelligent decisions. I could go on, but I have already said too much.
Take time to enjoy the traditional lighting around you if this is something you hold dear, for soon it will be only a small piece of your nostalgic pie.
