iBankCoin Laboratories is a state-of-the-art facility.  Unlike HRC, our servers are not in our home basement.  However, like HRC, our servers contain information valuable to the national security, the national security of iBankCoin–a hegemony determined to send a beacon of hope up above the sea of rabble rousers and false prophets inhabiting the internet of finance.

Part of my job is updating a model that merges the powerful analytics of Exodus (which autonomously measures and ranks over 4000 stocks) with auction theory–a school of thought held in the highest regard by serious short-term traders.

Said model called the tradable low at the end of June and was bullish for the entire month of July.  BEHOLD – every Executive Summary from July:

Today, heading into August, the model is calling for the short.  New month flows make this an uncomfortable bias.  Nevertheless I will adhere to my signalling and look to garnish my portfolio with shorts next week.  Inside the NASDAQ futures, I will be leaning harder into my shorts, meaning I expect to take more than 5-6 handles out of each trade.  If things get loose I will press shorts into the scrotum and rectum of bulls until they wince.

The model also made whispers about November 30th, 2014 which I find curious.  I find it curious that the model nudged me to look back to that time and place–that time and place when things began to unravel a bit.

Exodus members – it is with humility and distinct honor that I present to you the 90th edition of Exodus Strategy Session.  Do check it out.

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Early this morning, combing through news feeds, premium chat rooms, and my precious twitter stream there was a recurring sentiment among market participants–a toxic mentality that often leads to errors.

This will not be a long lecture, only a quick reminder:

You are not in control of the markets.

If you feel anger or frustration or confusion, it could be a [failed] attempt by your psyche to impose your will on the marketplace.

Step back, lads.

Moving on…markets are ripping higher after being in balance since Thursday.  This is hypo 2 from the morning report.  Why are the markets attempting to breakout of balance already? Just after 10am, just after the NAHB Housing Market Index the rally began.  The housing read was just a touch below expectations and is not the likely catalyst.  Bottom line–it doesn’t matter why, just do what is right for your and your money in these conditions.

This is the first week I have no edge coming into.  I booked my AMZN short, a trade I took exclusively on snapchat [username: vCali].  The purpose of showing my trades is not so others follow along–instead the purpose is to show what methods seem to work [for now] for me.

I have killed these markets from the last week of May, all through June, and into today.  Typically I would pound my chest and continue my aggressive campaign now, ultimately foregoing a decent chunk of my hard-earned gains.

This time, since I have no edge, I am backing off, for the win.

Markets do not care about your reaction to external events.  If they only want to move based on central banks and earnings, so be it.  Accept it, trade it, or move on to a different vocation.

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Investors have officially approved all BREXIT measures.  Every NASDAQ point that was rescinded after UK citizens voted OUT of the European Union have been returned to the US Treasury.

Long live the United British kingdom, where police carry billy clubs and tea is promptly served at noon.

Long live Nigel Farage, and may he have a change of heart and accept the Prime Minister role.

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Much like a no-hitter, you do not talk about a no-hitter, mid no-hitter.  That is grounds for a jinx.

However, now that June is complete, let me be the first to report the bludgeoning put on the marketplace by the Strategy Session.  Let’s recap the Executive Summaries, shall we?

HEADING INTO JUNE:

Look for price to continue working higher across all major indices.  Keep an eye on the lagging Dow Jones, and whether it plays catch up or attempts to lead us lower.  Look for Friday morning’s Non-farm Payroll data to provide market direction into the weekend and into the month of June.

Note: U.S. markets are closed Monday in observation of Memorial Day.  For a full schedule on all trading products, click here.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses triggered, but extreme reading suggests calm upward drift. See Section IV

Calm upward drift, you say?  That about explained week one of June:

Sure RAUL, everyone knows the first week of a month tends to drift/be bullish.  What’s your next trick?

We came into Week Two ready for battle:

Look for bulls to attempt higher prices early in the week.  Janet Yellen speaks Monday and may try to talk up the likelihood of a summer interest rate hike.

Expect price to roll and head lower as early as Monday afternoon.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses Bearish Signal triggered, See Section IV

Cool BRO, your research was RIGHT great job, but did you even trade it? LOLZ

I post all model-based trades inside Exodus, note the dates:

I don’t always flip from long-to-short, but when I do it’s powered by my cultivated edge.

Week 3:

Look for markets to explore lower prices early this week.  While the volatility may uptick slightly, expect downside to be limited to the range printed on 05/24 [trend day up].

Look for the reaction post Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC rate decision to drive market direction into end-of-week.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses Bearish Signal triggered, See Section IV

No comment.  The SQQQ was in place, riding the liquidation drop lower:

Week 4:

Things became a bit confusing, because Bunker Buster looks for a fast move lower that you can buy:

The week has little by the way of economic events.  There are several T-Bill and Treasury Note auction this week however.  Keep an eye on the demand for the U.S. paper as it will continue to tell us about investor’s faith in central banks.

Look for a fast move lower early in the week, perhaps even a major gap down Monday morning.  Overall a fast downside move leads to a tradable low as investors react and buy lower prices.

* Bunker Buster long signal triggered, See Section IV

We started the week with a huge gap up after bookmakers in England swayed perception over Brexit.  Price action deviated from the Executive Summary.  My interest in BREXIT increased at this point, because it was jeopardizing my no-hitter.  Thanks to the ardent reporting of iBankCoin, I had a strong feeling the people of the United Kingdom would make the right choice and vote themselves out of the failing European Union.  I stuck with my shorts all week.  The result:

PAYDIRT.  These events transpired while I was living in a van, at an electronic music festival.  My phone exploded with calls, pandemonium ensued and I was short the market.  I offered tobacco to the sacred Giving Tree and held my shorts through the weekend.

Then, knowing I had a no-hitter on the line, I abandoned the music festival before all the headliners, including Griz, who is changing music for the better.

It was down to the last two innings, WEEK 5, BEHOLD:

Expect some weakness to carry through into Monday morning, perhaps a fast move lower off the open.

Then, look for a strong bid to enter the market and provide us a tradable low through month-end and Independence Day weekend.

At this point I closed my shorts for over a 20% gain and flipped long, last Monday, full of SHOMP and vigor:

This week played out to perfection, and I remain long TQQQ, for the win, for the glory, GOD BLESS AMERICA:

Consider this my victory lap but also a sincere thank you.  Thank you so much to everyone who reads along, interacts, and provides feedback on my work.  I’d like to give a special thanks to the benevolent Le Fly (as he is known in France) for building an incredible analytics platform and also a proper media outlet.  I appreciate all the iBC crew and readers and members.  It is truly humbling to have a small voice among you.

I hope you enjoy Independence Day.  We live in the best country in the world, and I hope you find time to relax and refresh yourselves.

Everything I do inside Exodus, plus all the tweeting, snapping, and blogging is geared so you can understand the traits that will elevate your game and give YOU an edge in the marketplace.  Perhaps you can also avoid some of the pitfalls I’ve encountered, and continue to encounter along the way.  Let’s continue to learn our vocation with childlike curiosity and burning passion.

 

 

 

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So it appears summer did in fact set out to trick the majority of participants.  It really cajoled them into aggressive weekly upside bets only to pull the proverbial rug during Globex.  Now it looks like we are in store for something a bit more direct, a bit more draconian.

Downside without the subtly of German design.  Global citizens, predominantly domiciled in the northern hemisphere, are being worked into a frenzy.  The sun is frying their brains and they are returning to their base instincts–snarling animals emotionally defending their territory and fucking for survival of the species.  Does this really surprise anyone?

We have:

• Russian and English soccer hooligans setting each other on fire
• Gordie Howe passing away [RIP]
• Mass shootings [old hat travesty]
• BREXIT
• One of the least anticipated summer Olympics in history being held in a corrupt, disease-infested 3rd world country

I am sure the Greeks are doing something stupid, as we speak.  All of this, and MOAR, will be plastered across your teevee screens this week.  Congratulations, you’re about to embark on the next negative news cycle.

Distinguished and piker members of Exodus, I have done my best research to keep us one step ahead of these summer markets.  You have, all of you have access to the same information inside Exodus.  Not one of you is a better member.  A more experienced analyst, sure, but together we stand in solidarity as opportunists.  Let’s continue to use the tools built by the benevolent ‘Fly’ aka Plutonium Peatie [rumored to go by Le Fly in France] to keep our decisions objective and consistent.

It is my belief that anyone would make the right decision if presented with the facts–as dirty as they may be.

All of this news, analysis, signalling, and posturing can be TRUMPED by our central bank overlords this Wednesday, so stay sharp!  Keep an eye on the bond auctions.  Watch for more perverted financial deals from Asia Pacific.  And for GODS sake, keep it classy.

Members of Exodus, the latest Strategy Session is out.  Give it a read, if only the Executive Summary.

 

 

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The Exodus Strategy Session has been freakishly accurate for the first two weeks of June.

Think of the Strategy Session as a weekly research report that takes into consideration all the predicitve analytics inside the software.

The report also contains my working auction theory model, which has been running live for 81 weeks straight.

Attention to detail is paramount to any model because garbage in = garbage out.  The minute factors are presented each Sunday, but they utimately help shape each week’s Thesis for The Week.  Think of it like an executive summary.  Below is last Sunday’s Executive Summary:

Raul’s bias score 3.33, Medium Bull*. Look for bulls to attempt higher prices early in the week. Janet Yellen speaks Monday and may try to talk up the likelihood of a summer interest rate hike.

Expect price to roll and head lower as early as Monday afternoon.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses Bearish Signal triggered, See Section IV

Two weeks ago the summary was still bullish, despite the market being on a pistol hot run, see below:

Raul’s bias score 3.58, Medium Bull*. Look for price to continue working higher across all major indices. Keep an eye on the lagging Dow Jones, and whether it plays catch up or attempts to lead us lower. Look for Friday morning’s Non-farm Payroll data to provide market direction into the weekend and into the month of June.

Note: U.S. markets are closed Monday in observation of Memorial Day. For a full schedule on all trading products, click here.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses triggered, but extreme reading suggests calm upward drift. See Section IV

A great deal of passion goes into this research. It is one of two things your good pal RAUL takes seriously.  The other thing is my morning trading report.

The Executive Summary is a 10 second read based on 4-5 hours of research and is one more way you can outsource your analytics to the good folks at iBankCoin Exodus.

BONUS: When I have a conviction bias, I let it be known on snapchat.  For these updates, follow me.  My user name is VCali.

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Imagine you have a question.  You go to Google. Your queries turn up nothing of value.

This is not Google’s fault.  You failed to properly search.  Fine.

You go to Twitter.  Hey, this place is loaded with experts.  Surely the proper hashtag will enter one into the conversation, right?

I am a normal person.

I posed the following question to the ‘Twittersphere’:

Minutes and hours went by.  OH JOY, someone loved it, one red heart for me.  The tweet does exist.

Then it was swept away in the stream, miles beyond sight, cast into the bottomless pit of dead tweets.

Nobody pitched me on their event. No algo replied with a low-brow offer.  Noone inhabiting the #fintech hastag had one single word on any trader expo, event, award show, anything.

Sell me on your event and I will come there and perhaps even write about it.

UPDATE: Harry Sears on Facebook knows what’s up:

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Across the northern territories, where men pursue industry and drive U.S.A. prosperity the honest way, not drilling into our mother and sucking dry her oil, up here in the north, where we forge steel into machines, people are feeling rather jovial.  The lands have bloomed, and the skies are filled with emerald green trees who compliment the resilient conifers in a wind-driven ballet of ecstatic movement.  Mating season has taken hold, with plebeians flocking to town square 5-7 nights/week to have a go at courtship and good tidings.

It is all so magical, rising again from the desolate cold, so magical one may see the world through false lenses. Rose-colored lenses.

Everything looks better through rose-colored sunglasses, even the stocked market, which is saddled with maturing oil debt.  Meanwhile Europe is flaring up, like it always does this time of year, yet nobody is taking it seriously…yet.  Soon the imperial guard will lead the United Kingdom out of the hell hole that is Europe.  German festivals will be infested with slobbering refugees, men of fighting age, who encircle and assault local Germanic women, much to the Dalai Lama’s chagrin.

The summer Olympics will begin–with the torch inviting people around the world to come and contract the deadly Zika.  Perhaps this is our mother’s retribution for an unsettled population who would rather see billions spent educating and healing their youth instead of GAMES.

The land will begin to boil as the sun reaches its apex in the sky, summer solstice.

All this, and more, is on the horizon.  So prepare.  Clean your home like a crime scene, stock your food stores and potable water sheds.  Tend to your gardens so they may bear fruit while the vine of your enemy withers.  Temper your lust and gluttony, and prepare for austerity.  Welcome it.

They may paint a rose picture across the stock index markets this week, but I will be at the front of the queue, selling my risk wares and stacking my nuts far away from your prying eyes.

Distinguished members of Exodus, the 81st Edition of Strategy Session has been published.  Be sure to check it out.

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Since the cat is out of the bag, our software gave a bullish signal last week.  It’s good for at least 5 days.  Tuesday will be day 4.  There is a 94% probability Tuesday’s close will be higher than last Tuesday’s close aka the trend day heard around the world.  Furthermore, there is an 84% probability of us closing higher than the Tuesday, May 24th close on Wednesday June 8th.

Do you know how much money you can make between now and June 8th? Even if the market just stays flat?

Perhaps you don’t.  Maybe you skipped last week’s iBankCoin Boot Camp which equipped attendees with the right skills to lay waste to the stocked market in these conditions.

I am still playing things slow.  I am eagerly awaiting ‘The Fly’s’ adjustments to the GARP portfolio so I can re-balance my Motif.  Meanwhile my low risk longs have been participating earnestly with the market while paying dividends.  Let’s not even talk about which ones, I cannot risk the robots triangulating on my boat and sending torpedoes into the hull.

Also, in case you were unaware, I time stamp all the algo driven trades I take inside Exodus.  Nothing fancy, just a note to the community:

My model, the one I produce every single Sunday 80 weeks running, is also generating bullish readings.  They are unique bullish readings, territories we do not often explore so the data set is limited.  Nevertheless, I adhere to my working model as it has been an excellent guide for me.

Enjoy your Monday holiday, Americans, then come Tuesday be ready to make some moneys before June.

Sell in May?  I think I will see the first week of June, the turn and the river card.

 

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I am a firm believer in the power of momentum in business and life.  When you get traction and start making progress, it behooves you to push said progress as hard and far as you possibly can because once you return to a static state–back to the grind you go.

And we love the grind sure, because we have to, because it’s the potential energy behind your next momentous push.  You create the compression and wait for nature to produce an opportunity.  The same goes for stocks.

You may have been involved in the morning drive higher on the NASDAQ if you were quick.  But we had a fairly strong expectation that said upward movement would fizzle out, leaving any late longs holding to proverbial bag.  Guys like me were fading the market lower all afternoon, grinding away like chumps for 5-10 handles, which is fine.  That’s my game.  But there is a better play out there for the stock trader.

Enter Exodus.  We have a special screen inside the software that feeds members stocks on the move and holding onto gains…suggesting the presence of accumulation and momentum.  Pull up an intra-day chart on almost any of these names and you will find a chart that trended higher all afternoon:

Those are just the top performers on the session.  Dig deeper in the list you’ll find even more afternoon momentum:

You could be taking shorts to pound town in the afternoons via the Exodus Momentum tool.

Business is grind grind grind nothing, grind grind grind nothing, grind grind POOF! MOMENTUM!  It just appears, and when it does you have to milk it for everything its got.  You think I’m messing with you?  See for yourself.  Bamboo is a perfect natural example.  It spends about 3 years underground, grinding, then all the sudden:

 

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