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Curious Thoughts

Logical Scale

You can stay with your positions and stick some coin in your purse.  I still like ATML and it’s having a good day.  However, my plan dictates taking some profits when price reaches a level where it’s likely to pause at the least.  Don’t over think stuff like this, keep moving:

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Forged From The Financial Crisis

I read this site for over three years before mustering the nerve to comment.  It wasn’t fear of criticism or banishment, but rather respect for what I had found.  I was fresh out of college, had taken two jobs in the financial service industry, found each to be equally vile, and was desperately seeking someone to teach me something.  Academia won’t get you far in this game.  The sage words of battle-hardened traders will.  So I read backward to the inception, and have gone forward daily since.  Fly axioms began to stick.  Words from his wise elders like, “If it sounds too good to be true, it’s a fucking god damned lie.”  Still, I insisted on learning many lessons on my own.  In regard to trading stocks, most of the recent journey has been chronicled within the blogger network where I’m Raul3.  However, I wear many hats.

I won’t bore you with a lengthy autobiography, but will instead tell you who I currently am.  I am 27 years old and without children.  By day I am an accountant in a corporate setting.  Much of what was once tasked to this position I have fully automated.  Instead of touting my accomplishments to upper management, getting some bullshit raise and saddled with more meaningless work, I chose to continue appearing as if I do manual work to keep me busy.  This opens up my eyes to watch the markets.  They love me.  

Outside of my day job I own a business.  It’s more lucrative than my accountant gig and is almost fully automated.  My current and most ambitious project is the development of a portfolio of algorithms that automatically trade future contracts around the clock.  When you’re at home being a good father, I’m tinkering with these bots while listening to flamenco.  They are not HFTs of the dark pool variety, but rather order-flow scalpers using small position sizes of 1-4 contracts to take advantage of statistical arbitrage. 

I own many books, most of which I’ve read.  From the latest hot writers like Nate Silver and Tim Ferris to philosophic Greek scrolls heralded during Rome’s fall, I glean market knowledge from it all.  I’ll read a book on gardening and it will state something like, “A good tool holds its edge…” and I’ll think of my faithful EMAs.  My mind rarely deviates from the markets.

It all boils down to business acumen.  I won’t emulate The Fly like I did in my early blogging.  I will simply offer my views on the market, stocks I’m watching, and the reasons why.  I will toss in some Gaussian analysis of market profile, specifically in the /ES and /6e.  I will keep the opining to a minimum, and focus my efforts on objectivity as much as humanly possible.  Also, this will be my last campaigning post. Enough time has been spent!

Going forward, with our without a paycheck from iBankCoin, I’m going back to writing about what I love. 

Finally, an endorsement from any of the current iBC members would be a supreme honor.  If I’ve added value to your trading life, let it be known to your fellow readers.

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A Sales Pitch? Are You A Salesman?

Believe me, I’m a people person and jokes, oh I love jokes. The funny thing like telling a joke about a clown like Young Gun whose intent is to abandon her third-tier blog and shower us with long paragraphs and sappy R&B is the irony. Capital Overlook is running on a platform that says iBankCoin needs “fresh and new life.” Am I the only faithful reader who thinks iBankCoin is as fresh every visit as the blood spilled today by the fat-fucked investors in Darden Restaurants (DRI)?

Young Gun, I hope I haven’t lost your vote by calling out your subtle words of treason. When the polls open up on Thursday, be sure to cast your vote for a blogger true to the brand, true to the reader, Raul3.

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Could There Be a Better Popular Vote?

iBankCoin is a beacon of truth in an otherwise thick canopy of click-whore campaigning by media monsters like @seekingalpha. It’s harmless to call out their blatant hack journalism because they add no value to our republic. However, one must take a softer approach to criticisms of equally ad hungry sites like Business Insider. Their staff is connected and adds occasional value to our site. Hence we may scoff their click hungry headlines, but respect the game. To even broach the question of iBankCoin’s loyalty to readers is grounds for immediate banishment, treason in the highest degree. Fly makes a point to kindly tell advertisers who attempt to “correct” his colorful commentary to kindly take their dollars elsewhere and fuck off. Show me a site matching such brilliance, I insist!

If you’ve resided in the mahogany lined walls of iBankCoin long enough, you know insolence toward the members will earn you a short trip to BANNED. This is by design. Through these actions Fly serves us all in building a place where ladies and gentlemen are held to their own merit; a Galt’s gulch of the interwebs but without the ad nauseum lectures on virtue. Instead we bump Mabach music.

Please consider this my formal request for inclusion in the tab battle.

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Modern Israeli Plumbers Plug Old Gap

Anyone who embraces modern computing understands we create a gigantic amount of data through our daily internet interactions. As traders, we have intimate knowledge of big data, the more the better. Market stats, performance stats, fundamentals, volume footprints; the list is endless. If you’re serious about trading, you love data, period. I’ll stick to letting my gut decide what’s for lunch.

Also, we’re ushering in the age of small devices accessing the cloud. Gone are the days of needing all your memory in one place. RAX is my favorite cloud storage play, and they’re approaching their busiest time of the year as they ramp up service to sites like AMZN for the madness of Cyber Monday.

Late to the game as I usually am, Mellanox (MLNX) came to my attention after smashing earnings last July. I was immediately intrigued by the Israeli firm’s product line: the pipes that make the cloud hum. Since then I wanted to build a position in the name. However, it never pulled back and offered me entry during its late summer ramp. The gap left behind troubled me also, as nature abhors a gap. Unnatural as today’s markets may seem, they’re the purest place left in the world. Gaps left below have two forces, nature’s desire to fill gaps and gravity, working against them.

I’ve kept the name on my radar, and have watched as it spent the remainder of the year in no man’s land until finally falling back into the gap. What we’ve seen since returning to the gap is a healthy auction. At this point, price has auctioned the area well, and buyers and sellers appear to be in agreement where the value of this stock resides. Now we have some well-defined goal posts as I’ve noted below.

And traders should practice one of our better traits at this point, waiting for price to tip its hand, and let us know where we head next.

May you have a warm Thanksgiving, spending your time exactly how you see fit

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Traders All Know a Relief Rally

The morning commentary from Twitter and blog traders has identical sentiment from bulls and bears alike: this is a relief rally and may last a few days but will eventually run out of steam.  This sentiment is echoed by some of the more noble people I read.  Actually, it’s echoed by too many traders.

I see the following two scenarios most likely as we enter Monday afternoon:

All short-timeframe traders will begin front running each other and we’ll have a weak close

or

We close firm, with markets closing above their midpoint on the day

I’ll use today’s close as a hand tip, and my expectation is we see one of these scenarios play out, listed respectively to the above outcomes:

A Weak close leads to weakness throughout the short week, and then we go higher

or

We go mildly higher this week, than much higher the week after

I know and accept that markets rarely give such binary outcomes and I keep an open mind to the possibility of a sharp clawed bear market. Many trader’s favorite charts are broken.  However, I currently hold a portfolio of strong charts, and they look ready for another leg higher.  Have a look:

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Quick Thought on Marathons

Our populace really loves polarizing events and happenings.  Be it football rivalries, films like Footloose, elections, or chilled NYC residents inundated first by waters and now by trite “26.2” tourists.  These events put the spotlight on how fucking stupid an extreme opinion is.  You stand for nothing, except the desire to bring attention to your otherwise anonymous life by joining an argument.

I’ve run marathons, they’re spirited, sure.  In Detroit, we run over to Canada for a brief reprieve, then it’s back to running past piles of burning tires and shit.  I kid, slightly.

As for NYC and its diverting of “precious public resources” to having a marathon, I don’t go extreme and you shouldn’t either.  Wouldn’t it be frustrating to cancel and rework travel itineraries?  Marathoners also spend months in a training regimen that “peaks” on race day.  It would get their spandex in a bunch to waste such efforts.

If there was a tree shoved up my Brooklyn home’s ass, it would be modestly entertaining to toss firecrackers at the runners while huddling over a barrel of burning garbage.  If I was a resident, I’d certainly make lemonade from the situation; perhaps setting up a small card table and offering the runners a refreshing drink, that’s actually a shot of cinnamon.  Poof CINNAMONED FOOL!  Or maybe some locally sourced (from the subway tunnel) water.  Get creative and really have fun with it.

And although you won’t because life’s one big internet popularity contest, calm the fuck down.  Most of us are just sort of meandering down the opinion road, like water, living our lives.

STOCKS…TOP PICK: WFM — they’re coming for you.

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Major Tom’s Bearish Stance on YELP

Sometimes a long month-end Friday amidst a market riddled with tomfoolery leads the mind to dark, murderous thoughts. I thought it fun to share my most recent thoughts with you, the curious-internet-view-count statistic perusing the iBC blogger network, on populace control and decedent executions.

Executions are already expensive, what with all the laws and justice, sure. But let’s consider a method with dashing style and a spirited display of retro technology. My friends, are you familiar with Jacques Cousteau’s faithful Calypso ship and its underwater sea lab? It was really something, and often times his esteemed colleagues would spend weeks underwater researching turtles and shit. Have a look:

Even after a normal dive, it’s imperative one does not hop in an airplane as the nitrogen built up in the blood stream will not escape and a bad case of the bends will occur. This risk is magnified significantly after a week in an underwater habitat.

On to execution:

Many a market wizard wise enough to short YELP into lockup received the market’s form of my newest and most brash concoction. You mount an underwater launch vessel to Jacques Cousteau’s sea lab, capable of launching prisoners into low earth orbit. BENDS 2.0 bitches! No space helmet will be provided, of course. That way, if the BENDS doesn’t burst their organs, they’ll be freeze dried in space.

Regarding civil control:

ALL THIS, will be live streamed in NYC’s Time Square, to teach obedience. Financing for this project will come from Senior Tropicana, one of the world’s largest private space financiers.

It has been a long day, with many hours of robot over lording to go. I bid you farewell, unless you’re on my fucking death row.

(No brazen bull)

going hard tonight

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VXX Wants Your Dollars

A down day atop a strong rally tends to garner much emotion from both sides of the tape.  Bulls that have not yet scaled any profits start getting squirmy and trapped bears breathe a sigh of relief.  Both parties may begin considering buying volatility ETFs like UVXY and VXX.  If your thought process has deduced you to this decision, I suggest you wire me said funds.  It’s worth the $25.00 fee, and I’ll just dig a hole in my garden and delicately lay your funds to rest.  I charge a small labor and carry fee of only 15 basis points, however this fee can be waived if a genuine thank you is given.

Hell Keith “Sweat” McCullough isn’t even blowing his ‘tard horn today.

PROTECT YOUR NECK, SURE, but adorn VXX tits with extreme caution and acceptance of your likely fate.

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