Stupid Launch Pad – Didn’t Even Make Money

When you build a launch pad, delicately attending to every detail, and then it doesn’t make you any moneys – you want to take a bulldozer and smash it to bits.

Like when your do-it-yourself plumbing job goes surprisingly well until the end when you over torque a pipe and break everything.  Your inner monkey emerges and chucking the channel locks through the mirror seems the only logical reaction.

It’s better to tidy up your work, retool everything, and have another go at it.

GOOG and MSFT both disappointed after hours and are down.  QQQ and SPY are both pressing up against your favorite overbought indicator, and leaders are lagged all day.

We may see a down day or two…

The Philli Fed pumped up the market with vigor, only for us to spend the remainder of the day giving it back.  I suppose I state all of this because I’m near fully vested and only holding FXY as a pseudo-hedge.

My swing portfolio is red on the day, championed by TPX getting poleaxed.  Everything else did nothing fun.

I get a long on in the futures at a decent bargain and then the momentum vanishes and I sit around, not eating, waiting for like $100 more in profit.  Then I finally settle for my pittance and go eat a taco.

I’m still trading within the confines of my plan and I’m mildly profitable 4 out of 4 days as a result.  Somebody has to hold me accountable and that somebody is me.  Hell, I’m used to talking to myself what with the twitter and the blog, so self-enforced discipline feels normal.

I bulked up on ENPH and closed out DDD and Z.  I’m convinced the best way to play DDD is to buy some every quarter and never sell, but that doesn’t fit my fringe lifestyle.

Buyers are letting it be known they mean business between the range of 1672.75 – 1671.75 which is the price zone right above Monday’s long liquidation.  There is a perception that the market is a bargain at this price and below until there isn’t.

It’s my cue for today and if the auction remains tight, it’s my cue the remainder of the week.

Up above the bulls must contend with 1678.25, this price represents the peaks of the shoulders on the intraday head and shoulder pattern yesterday, just below the aggressive seller’s reaction at the all-time highs.  Any acceptance of price above this level will preclude a move higher.

The 24-hour profile has been building up since early Tuesday morning as price remains high and tight.  It does give us a clue, a cave in pricing that we may back-and-fill prior to launch.  Trade into the cave should be monitored for either a sharp knife though or a firm buyer rejection.  This range is from 1676 – 1673.50.

I’ve highlighted all of these dynamic characteristics in the following profile charts:

INTC revenues came in a bit weak and the stock printed a wild electromagnetic pulse after hours but is mostly unchanged.  IBM is up afterhours and SNDK reported great numbers ripping bears to shreds and storing the gif for future enjoyment.

Clearly technology stocks are a store of value.  Be sure to ignore EBAY, the home of porn stars and packrats, they’re getting crushed after hours after guiding lower.

It’s been a rather mild first inning of earnings, has it not?  Where’s all the fire and brimstone I heard so much about?  There’s a lot of baseball left I suppose…

We’re trading along rather quietly amongst the all-time highs this week in many names.  My favorite 52 week high is Zillow, printing a very sexual 69 high water mark.  Leave it to the real estate folks…

The SPY printed a pronounced head and shoulders pattern intraday, but it never followed thru.  It tried once, but was pinched higher after a lack of follow through was presented in the form of selling.  We did have a very aggressive seller reaction at the highs this morning.  It resulted in me staying long in the futures market all session long, missing lunch, and eventually closing the position for small, stupid gain.

I have so many longs set up well, I had to sell a few shares as sacrifice to the rally gods.  I scaled off some FB and some IMMR.

This also gave me some much needed cash, which I promptly placed into GRPN.  I know I like today’s action and I’m one to put money where my mouth is.  Beyond that I abhor Groupon mainly because I’ve only actually used 2 of the 10 coupons I bought.  My assistant buys most of his lunches via their ‘Now’ service, but he has much more time on his hands.

For the day, I’m up on all accounts, albeit modestly.  I still want my space launch.

And here’s the plan:

Late yesterday morning we saw longs liquidated on the break of 1674.50 which happens to coincide with the value area low of our uppermost distribution.  The long liquidation that followed built the familiar b-shaped profile although the meat of the ‘b’ is a bit wider than in ideal pictures.  Nevertheless, it’s a general concept not a concrete rule.  It suggests the downward development failed to attract new initiating sellers into the market and a buying force greater than the sell flow stopped the downward action.

We have a few key upside levels today, the aforementioned 1674.50, the lower low on yesterday’s session which thus far held overnight at 1672.50, and the high VPOC at 1677.50.

Below we have a still incomplete profile, and trade down to 1664 should come as little surprise.  Bulls however want to see 1662.50 hold as support should we trade down to those prices.

I’ve highlighted these levels and more in the following profile chart:

First and foremost, I’m happy to report I’ve managed to stick to my trading plan since last Wednesday and it has resulted in green days (no alt rock).  The market isn’t giving me much to work off of, but it’s offering setups and I’m executing them without much thought.  This is good, as almost all the thinking should occur before a trade, fortified with six months of statistics, and cemented in place with the experience of trading it 100s of times.

Then you just do it live.

I can already smell the full-bodied aroma of a cigar pared with the sharp smell of pool shock and sunscreen.  Heaven

Second, didn’t the morning profile analysis fully embrace the thought of a pullback?  That helps me be a cool daddy-o.

Finally, I hit an all-time high this morning in my swing portfolio, but ended the day red.  My only two actions were cutting PRLB and buying more ENPH.  I want to buy my PRLB back already but there’s a problem: I’m fully invested.

100% long at the swing high of the year, pressing for a break higher.

I’ve uploaded my positions into Finviz and sorted them by their respective earnings date to prevent any ‘surprise sex’ check it out:

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&t=ENPH,IMMR,OCZ,AIXG,FXY,YGE,FB,O,BPZ,TPX,Z,INVN,CREE,FSLR,DDD,F&o=-earningsdate

It’s a pretty great feature if you’re running lots of positions at once during earnings.

I don’t have much else to say this eve, my positions are listed in that link in the spirit of full disclosure.  And my top pick is ENPH.  Enjoy your evening.

Sincerely,

Raul

I don’t have a name for it, see below:

NOTE: EARNINGS 07/24 BMO, FD: Long

Don’t you know forces exist much greater than ours and they are determined to derail your momentum trade?  GUY!  You don’t want to play momentum trades too tight up here, at the precipice.  You’ve got to be cool, relax, get hip, and get on their tracks.

As I type, TAN, FSLR, YGE, and ENPH are well off their lows, and you’re without solar stocks.

Time to play catch up, because they’re the best momo show in town.

Catch up

One of the marquee characteristics of climbing to new heights in the market or atop a mountain is small progression.  Think of a climber reaching uncharted territories: her steps become smaller, her moves more calculated and thought out.  The familiar trek below (profiles) gave a navigational map and experience to build progress on, now we’re taking measured moves.

The squatted range yesterday took time to break the initial balance, finally doing so to the upside.  We left an incomplete auction below and we’re likely to eventually fill out the 07/11 profile down from 1667 – 1664.  When this occurs, the treatment of the prices by the market could be a major sentiment piece.

Overnight we’ve been mostly balanced with a top-heavy profile.  A rotation down to 1674 early on would not surprise me.

There’s potentially market-moving data out ahead of the bell, but so far we’re set to open within yesterday’s value.  I’ll be eying the following levels and potential developments in market profile:

The old me would be stalking EXK today like I did Miley Cyrus last time she was in town, but I’m comporting myself with a bit more grace and self-respect today…like Pepe Le Pew.  I learned not to chase miners, EXK in particular, through a long history of daggered hairpin reversals.  The name is volatile, I felt early on that I missed the action, therefore I did.  I’ll have to tickle my fancies with something else today.

I’ve quite enjoyed being kicked in the scrotum this morning by my newly minted long OCZ.  They came out with some preliminary earnings data rather out of the blue, and lo and behold they’re still combating supply issues.  “SUPPLIES!” …no surprise.  There are worse problems for a company to have, like no sales.  Anyway, the stock market is the final arbiter.  If the name doesn’t shape up into the bell I may axe it (no piker body spray puke).

I sold a bit more O which is fantastic, this trade played out LOCKSTEP, and now I have my final 1/3 which the market must work very hard to take from my person, as my cost basis (net of booked profits) is now $38.50 aka well below swing lows.  I hope we take out the recent swing low, run some stops, and then I’ll add some back on.  This is going to be my new AWK, collecting me a coupon while I skip to my lou though the market minefield.

My solar trifecta has me more pleasured than Lil Wayne ‘turked up’ on opiates at a stripper convention.  Take your pick: YGE, FSLR, and ENPH the sector is leading higher just as prophesied by the immortal Le Fly and other iBC cast members.  Use the green juice to power some CREE bulbs and you’re on the right track, guy.

DDD and PRLB did this morning what I like to call the bear pinch: drive lower, pullback for shorts to enter, make a new low, barely, than quickly rip higher, leaving asshole bears stuck in their underwater positions.  Have a great afternoon you harry bastards, it’s hot out there.

RVLT finally lifted off and it has done so without me.  I’m instead nearly balls deep in German LED play AIXG, down 1 percent.  All dogs have their day, RVLT is a decent company, but they’re no CREE or AIXG fundamentally.  RVLT is an instrument for degenerates to trade.

I’m happy to have paired my IMMR with some INVN because to me, they’re the same thing: new tech, chips.  INVN appears to be more en vogue.

F won’t let good Americans in unless their 401-k is set to ‘auto-allocate’.

FB still wants to win, while you’re looking elsewhere.

I’ll never own enough Z, but I own it nonetheless.

TPX is still my largest.  You will all feel its gentle wrath.

Who thinks BPZ has another squeeze in it?  (Raises hand)

That’s my book in a nutshell.  I’m considering an FXY long as protection.  Call it Kong hedging.  iBC is becoming a formidable beast.