A discrepancy between the closing price and settlement price on the Nasdaq futures resulted in an odd no-volume push lower. This may or may not have something to do with the big drop in Facebook shares after their earnings report motivated participants to sell the stock down significantly in after hours trade. However, that action will slowly move to the back burner as we enter US trade. Set for announcement this afternoon are several Fed data points. We also have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.
The price spans our market has traversed lately are huge. This is not an environment we have traded in, velocity and rotation size-wise, since perhaps 2011, more so like the 2009 bottom. Put simply, the market is acting either like prior major bottoms or like an inflection point. You can thus see how these recent events might be unsettling to speculators. The directional ramifications these conditions typically preclude are major.
I am keeping my bias with the market’s biggest punch. This is helps me accept conditions and adjust as the market dictates. Currently, the uptrend is steep long term and the largest most recent rotation is up. There are warning signs around, but I will reserve caution for when I have proof in the price action that sellers are regaining an edge. What are my clues? Retracements, especially the 50 percent retracement. I have noted the 50% retracement as well as a few other observations on the following daily bar chart of the Nasdaq futures:
If you were to ask me one week ago today whether we would be templating the volume profile printed on the day BABA went public today I would suggest it was very unlikely. Yet, here we are observing the key price levels left behind on the swing high volume profile. I have noted these levels, as well as other carefully selected levels on the following volume profile mash up chart:
not much of an edge up here at the open, mainly waiting to see if responsive sellers start becoming active
1st reaction post fed: Sell
Given the price action the past two weeks, I was expecting more….so I guess QE3 ends on a whimper?
waiting for the sacred third reaction k_mels
I need a newhandle….didn’t realize the reaction was like the trinity –
El_Nombre
reaction to reaction: chop with some responsive buys
really sluggish reaction to the reaction’s reaction, still working out this third reaction
3rd reaction is buy