Positioning Ahead of the French Elections

Macron is up like 99 points in the French elections. I think it’s a foregone conclusion that he’s going to win. Bear in mind, in our strip mall’d consumer based dystopian society filled with unhealthy fat people, the only acceptable form of ‘western democracy’ is hard left leaning liberal. Anything suggestive of nationalism or intermingled with conservative ideals is quickly eschewed and discredited for its overt racism and nazism. Those people get punched in the face.

The sooner you realize we’re heading for a Mad Max world, the better prepare you’ll be for the uprising.

Meanwhile, stocks are treading water ahead of this weekend’s French elections. It’s almost worth taking a VIX positions here, in the event Le Pen pulls an upset. There’s also a distinct chance markets might sell the news too, even with a Macron win.

Personally, I am comfy being long military stocks — ahead of the wars to come. My only high beta plays are OAS and ATI, and I also have some DB.

If I was buying stocks purely on what Exodus was saying, today I’d be adding to oil, copper and iron/ore/steel stocks. The whole basic resource sector is deeply oversold — bedraggled by malevolent traders who’ve been driving down prices because it feels good.

Not before long, those fuckers will be riding on the bottom of my pirate vessel — with the ocean serving as a means to strip their skin right off their haggardly bones.

Bottom line: buy commodities, maybe take a VIX floater heading into the weekend.

A few days ago, curious documents were revealed online, apparently showing assets belonging to Macron held in the Cayman Islands.

The subsequent result of these allegations have caused French police to seek the person on 4Chan who published them and a promise by Macron to ‘stop fake news’ and to ‘regulate the internet.’

Source: Heatst

Police with France’s Ministry of the Interior are now attempting to track down the 4chan user who originally published the documents. On Thursday, a French police officer reached out to the owner of the site on which the document files were hosted, mixtape.moe, over email and asked for data logs and information that could lead to the offender. The fake documents are hosted here and here.

Mixtape.moe is more commonly used as a hosting site for soccer .gifs and video game-inspired pornography, but apparently this time it was used to nefariously try to undermine the results of the French election.

In the email to mixtape.moe’s owner Drybones, French police officer Claire Allegre said she was in charge of a case based out of a high court in Paris for “forgery, use of a forged document and diffusion of fake news which can disturb an election.”

Drybones responded to the email and said mixtape.moe does not save data logs from anonymous uploads. Drybones told Heat Street this is the first time police of any country have ever asked him to turn over records.

Here’s Macron’s statement:

“I want to stop fake news,” Macron said Thursday. “It pollutes, it degrades the political debate.” He added that politicians “must together raise the level of the political debate” and “regulate the Internet because today certain players are activists and have a very important role in the campaign.”

As far as I can tell, this purported ‘war against fake news’ is nothing more than a scheme to control the narrative and give government controlled main stream media an unfair advantage in the dissemination of news. Of course some of the stuff published is fake and/or unreliable. But unreliable information has been getting published for hundreds of years by the main stream sources — sensationalists and propagandists who work towards the goal of cajoling its readers into believing whatever talking points their masters demand.

The head of Commodities Research at Citi, Ed Morse, reminded viewers of Bloomberg this morning that technical factors were the main catalyst of sharply lower oil prices as of late and NOT the never-ending supply of shale oil being produced by American frackers.

nothing to see here, all technical

Source: Bloomberg

“The market is really fundamentally tightening up,” Citigroup’s Head of Commodities Research Ed Morse said in a Bloomberg television interview on Friday. “It’s never possible to call a bottom, but I suspect this is a great buying opportunity” before a big jump in prices by the end of the year, he said.

Morse Says Oil Move All Technical, Not Fundamental

Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets, discusses the outlook for oil.

Fuel stockpiles continued to decline in April and the trend will accelerate as OPEC extends its production cuts beyond June, Goldman Sachs said in a note. “The broader oil demand picture so far this year remains supportive,” the bank said.

The price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, has collapsed 8 percent this week, erasing almost all gains since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries signed a six-month deal in November to curb production. While the two banks acknowledged bearish factors — notably expanding U.S. output — they attributed the recent capitulation to volatile trading patterns.

“It’s all technicals,” said Morse. “There’s nothing fundamental, nothing has changed in the market.”

The current price plunge started when West Texas Intermediate crude broke through its 200-day moving average last week. Once that gave way, another key technical indicator called a Fibonacci retracement was breached, paving the way to the low of the year and then $45 a barrel.

“Technicals and positioning likely accelerated the move lower,” said Goldman Sachs.

Due to these technical factors, the underlying shares of the oil and gas sector have been mired in a horrendous bear market in 2017 — sporting median losses of -28%. Amongst the chief losers are the drillers — stocks like RIG, ESV and CVE.

SHAK’s quarter wasn’t so good, but that’s because it was really cold in NYC and people don’t like to go out and eat hammed burgers in the cold, wet, weather. On the other hand, WING posted a great quarter, even though their delivery service is causing issues with the quality of their drenched fries. Nonetheless, Wall Street is optimistic about both stocks. More impressively, SHAK reversed -10% losses from last night and is now higher by almost 5%.

The fuckers at WING want to be a ‘top restaurant’ and the artery cloggers at SHAK merely want to shove beef-fat into the hideous mouths of the every day American slob.

Both companies intend to expand their brand across the country, located in all of the finest strip malls and shopping centers humanly possible.

Wingstop On Call follow up: sees Q2 comps QTD +2.3% excluding Easter (70 bps effect) (29.00 -0.17)

Notes trends improved at the end of February and March as the co launched its national advertising campaign and delayed tax refunds came in
New advertising is specifically focused on online/mobile ordering, co notes online orders comand a $4 higher average check
notes digital sales comprised 20% of total sales, +15.8% Y/Y

Ended Q1 w/ 1031 Wingstops worldwide
Decline in same store sales affected by 2 factors:
one of its restaurants was closed due to structural repairs for approximately 6 weeks during the quarter (120 bps to the comp)
co notes cannibiliization in 6 co-owned restaurants; estimates 340 bps impact on comp

Still very early in the Delivery process b/c they are trying to ensure the freshness of the food
currently working w/ a 3rd party

has changed their preparation process for french fries to retain their quality (main issue the co was worried about for delivery)
Will continue to test delivery thru July 1, when they will make decision on how they want to implement delivery into their business model
Goal is to be ‘a top 10 restaurant’

Unit growth rate of 18.1% in Q1
Trends in Texas remain and California (2 core markets) remain similar Y/Y, slightly below the system average

Costs were higher due to 11% increase in chicken wings and bones prices Y/Y

For Q2: co expects wing prices to increase Y/Y similar to Q1

‘More to come’ on testing in Las Vegas on how they plan to address increasing wing costs, co hinted at using mix shift towards promotions for boneless and shifts in labor management
notes they don’t expect the wing prices to go back down like it normally does after March madness, (BWLD noted this on its conference call a couple weeks ago)

Shake Shack beats by $0.02, beats on revs; raises FY17 rev (below consensus) on more units; lowers comps (33.12 -0.91)

Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.10 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.08; revenues rose 41.5% year/year to $76.7 mln vs the $74.71 mln Capital IQ Consensus. Same-Shack sales decreased 2.5% for the first quarter of 2017 versus 9.9% growth in the first quarter last year. The decline in same-Shack Sales consisted of a 3.4% decrease in guest traffic offset by a combined increase in price and sales mix of 0.9%. The comparable Shack base includes those restaurants open for 24 full fiscal months or longer.

“We are clearly dissatisfied with our comp result in Q1, but as a reminder our small comp base is made up of only 32 Shacks, the majority of which exist in the Northeast region which was most affected by cold weather and the holiday shift in March. Looking into the remainder of the year, we’re increasing our development schedule and overall revenue expectations, despite the relatively small impact the comp base has on the overall Shack story. We remain committed to executing our strategy of growing in premier locations, investing in our teams and delivering a great guest experience. We are extremely pleased with the early results of the Shack App and this is a key component of our long-term strategy to meet our guests whenever and wherever they want their Shack.”

Co issues downside guidance for FY17, raises FY17 revs to $351-355 mln from $349-353 vs. $356.21 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Same-Shack sales growth to be flat to prior year (from 2% to 3%), which includes ~1.5% to 2% of menu price increases taken at the end of December. Increased development schedule and sales expectation for the class of 2017 to be between 23 and 24 new domestic company-operated Shacks (vs. 22 and 23), with average annual sales volumes of at least $3.3 million (vs. $3.2 million) and Shack-level operating profit margins of at least 21%. Increase to 12, net new licensed Shacks to be opened in fiscal 2017 (vs. 11, net). Shack-level operating profit margin between 26.5% and 27.5%.

The criminal organization called the “SEC” just approved 400% leveraged ETFs by a company called Forceshares. In spite of the fact that the roster of 3x ETFs have done nothing but bestow a purple form of grief onto the uninformed investor — our regulatory body felt it necessary to provide the market with 1920s style leverage — that decays overtime — because straight up margin isn’t risky enough, apparently.

A few things to note, via the S-1.

the Sponsor has no experience operating commodity pools

the Sponsor is “leanly staffed” and “relies heavily on key personnel to manage trading activities”

the success of a Fund depends on the ability of the Sponsor to accurately implement its trading strategies, and any failure to do so could subject the Fund to losses.

the Sponsor may have conflicts of interest, which may cause them to favor their own interests to your detriment…the Sponsor’s principals, officers or employees may trade futures and related contracts for their own accounts.

the Sponsor has limited capital and may be unable to continue to manage the funds if it sustains continued losses
the failure or insolvency of the Custodian for a Fund could result in a substantial loss of the Fund’s assets.

the Funds are not registered investment companies, so you do not have the protections of the 1940 Act.

The tickers symbols will be UP for 4x long SPX futs and DOWN for 4x short SPX futs.

“This is an innovation for people who are going to run the game, sit behind the table and deal the cards, and it’s going to be a really bad innovation for those who think they can buy it and juice up some of their returns,” said Sal Arnuk, a principal at Themis Trading. “This is market crack, and it concerns me.”

Let’s review the returns of the 3x ETFs over the past 3 years.

TQQQ +225%
RETL +108%
FAS +99%
UPRO +97%
URTY +57%
UGAZ -99%
LBJ -92%
RUSL -86%
SQQQ -84%
FAZ -76%
ERX -75%

Senator Bernie Sanders said in a CNN interview tonight that, in its present form, the Trumpcare bill was not going to pass through the Senate.

‘This bill, in its current form is not getting through the Senate, said Sanders.

‘You take this bill, and you, we don’t want to clog up toilets or anything, but you just toss this into a garbage can and start again. This bill is a disaster.’ Remember what he told you, “we are gonna provide healthcare for everybody and it’s gonna be less expensive.” Providing healthcare for everybody is not throwing 24 million people off health insurance.”

‘When you are dealing with legislation that dealing with 1/7th of the American economy, this is huge’, said Sanders.

He added, ‘Don’t you think there might’ve been a hearing or two to discuss the implications of this legislation? These guys put it together in a few weeks time, zero hearings, they didn’t hear from the American medical association, who opposed this legislation. They didn’t hear from the hospitals that opposed this legislation. They didn’t hear from the AARP, the largest senior group in America, who opposed this legislation because it’ll be a disaster for older workers.’

Sanders concluded,’We’re gonna start from zero and hopefully, come up with a legislation that improves on Obamacare. Hopefully, we’ll provide health insurance to all of our people and do it in a more cost effective way.’

I know political operatives will spin the repeal of Obamacare as a great victory — because democrats are evil and republitards are just. The truth is, both plans seek to destroy whatever is left of the middle class. The issue of health insurance will not be resolved until the healthcare insurance and drug companies get hit with caps on their profit margins. This is a very reasonable proposition. Why should you subsidize for someone’s designer drugs at $10,000 per pill, when the god damned thing costs $5 to make?

I realize there are ancillary expenses that go into developing a drug. But anyone with the ability to read a balance sheet can see the immense amount of free cash flow and idle cash in the banks of big pharma as being excessive — when juxtaposed against the dystopian backdrop of our present healthcare system.

All I hear are cries about not wanting to pay for fat people and those without the resources to afford health insurance. However, where is the fucking outrage for the god damned pilfering being done by the healthcare industry? Every other nation in the world has caps on drug prices, but us. How in the fuck is that possible and who is responsible for this?

Some argue, ‘well, we have the crown jewel of healthcare. The best in the world.’ How fucking good is that healthcare if only 10% of the population can afford it?

Utterly ridiculous.

The House repealed Obamacare, hoping to replace it with something worse: Trumpcare.

Congrats conservatards.

If victorious, Republicans will be having a big press conference at the beautiful Rose Garden of the White House immediately after vote!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 4, 2017

I know the American people are getting fucked by this because the stock prices of our adored healthcare companies are higher — the same thing happened when Obamacare was passed.

The healthcare industry has over $350 billion in cash on their balance sheets and generates over $160 billion in annual free cash flow.

Now give it back, fucked faces.

I’d be on guard for news of commodity focused hedge funds being liquidated into this maelstrom. The carnage is significant and pervasive.

WTI is off by nearly 5% today.

The current fear is a ‘global glut’ in oil, which isn’t anything new. However, I think people are starting to realize that none of Trump’s pro-growth strategies have passed and GDP is in the pits; ergo, there isn’t a reason for commodities to fashion higher. The culprit, naturally, US shale.

“The market continues to hunt for a bottom,” said Gene McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We’ve dropped to a five month low.”

“At some point, the market should recognize OPEC isn’t the most important player in the market any more,” said Commerzbank’s Eugen Weinberg, “That is non-OPEC, and, above all, U.S. shale.”

Other commodities being routed included: copper -1.2%, nickel -2.6%, gold -1.5% and natty -1.7%.

On the other hand, bitcoins continue higher by another 5.2%.

The dollar is significantly weaker v the euro — off by 0.7%, probably because Macron is being praised as the winner of last night’s debate. On the surface of the market is nothing but smoke and mirrors. The commodity sector is being shredded on the equity side too, with losses ranging from 3-8%.

Conversely, defensive stocks, like consumer staples and military, are holding up nicely.

On the algo side of things, oil stocks are at their low point — definitely a prime candidate for a mean reversion move higher.

Truth be told, however, we are exploring new boundaries here and I would be reticent about jumping in with both feet.

What does that mean?

Well, the scores that make oil oversold are based off recent history. The market has been very accommodating to all stocks for a year, rarely trading down for more than a few days. The algos failed XLE recently and have been correcting themselves at these lower levels. The way the program works is price discovery and memory. The old levels of XLE weren’t enough to place in a bottom. The ETF kept trading lower with the sector, leading to even lower technical scores. Eventually, it will find a level that will be helpful.

For example, our 3 mo threshold is now 1.21, the 6 mo is 1.24 and the 12 mo is 1.31. Over time, that 1.21 scores will become the principle OS threshold and, hopefully, provide members with an edge when trading it. It’s important to note that nothing is full proof. As long as we’re learning from the past, we can make better decisions in the future.

Anyone know what to make of all this craziness?

Einhorn says TSLA is a dot com like bubble. Bitcoin is racing higher on a daily basis — up by another 2.5% this morning. Iron ore was limit down in China last night. Copper lost 4% yesterday. In fact, all of the base metals are being cruise missile’d this morning, as Trump eats chocolate cake. Crude oil is off by 2% amidst global growth concerns and rancor. Yet, despite all that, futures are higher and stocks are poised to hit new record highs.

If you’ve been a gold bug for the past 5 years, your life expectancy has been shortened. Volatility and market uncertainty isn’t something that concerns investors anymore. The investment community have been spoiled with a market that, seemingly, goes higher in spite of negative news. When was the last time you gave a shit about what a hedge fund manager said, other than to bet against him?

I am 100% long and believe stocks can continue heading higher. But I’m not delusional and do not think this is normal. The market hasn’t been normal since 2013. I can remember when it changed for me. It’s etched into my psyche and in my personal notes, a period that shall forever will foreshadowed by my unfortunate excursion into the 4 horsemen of certain death — delivered live, here on the blog, for all the world to see. The non-systematic risk associated with buying individual stocks seems unnecessary now, given the fact that broader based ETFs can provide investors with steady returns —  without having to worry about annoying earnings or unforeseen deleterious events.

Why not just buy QQQ, XIV, XLF, XLE, SLX and a little GLD and play golf all day?

Cheers to the stock pickers and the people out there who still give a damn about creativity, being different, and the data.

Top trade ideas: defense stocks (OA, RTN) and perhaps buying this dip in iron ore/steel and/or copper. It might get ugly, but that’s when you want to buy.

AHAHAHAHAAHAHAH. You fucking faggots are all gonna die in the streets now from the common cold. Gone are the days of free healthcare. Behold as a victorian era-like healthcare system descends upons you — casting out the infirmed to desolate island to be abused and murdered by sadistic orderlies.

America needs this.

House republican leader, Kevin McCarthy, said ‘We will be voting on the health care votes tomorrow. Because we have enough votes. It’ll pass. It’s a good bill.’

Source: CNN

The kicker to get this deal passed was an additional $8b by Trump to fund ‘high risk pools’ and people with pre-existing conditions.

House democrat leader, Pelosi will vote no.

“Forcing a vote without a CBO score shows that Republicans are terrified of the public learning the full consequences of their plan to push Americans with pre-existing conditions into the cold,” Pelosi said in a statement. “But tomorrow, House Republicans are going to tattoo this moral monstrosity to their foreheads, and the American people will hold them accountable.”

The Freedom Caucus supports the bill, which means Obamacare is finished.

Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows said only one member of the group opposes the bill. “We’re not going to lose any votes because of it,” he said.

The bill will nuke ACA taxes on the rich and get rid of the individual mandate. The new plan provides Ameriburgers will refundable tax credits.

People in their 50s and 60s are expected to get screwed over, naturally — beset with obscene premiums in comparison to younger people. It will not, however, rip children out from their parent’s plans until after the age of 26.

Bottom line: without regulating drug prices and medical devices, this is all horseshit.