iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,442 Blog Posts

Positioning Ahead of the French Elections

Macron is up like 99 points in the French elections. I think it’s a foregone conclusion that he’s going to win. Bear in mind, in our strip mall’d consumer based dystopian society filled with unhealthy fat people, the only acceptable form of ‘western democracy’ is hard left leaning liberal. Anything suggestive of nationalism or intermingled with conservative ideals is quickly eschewed and discredited for its overt racism and nazism. Those people get punched in the face.

The sooner you realize we’re heading for a Mad Max world, the better prepare you’ll be for the uprising.

Meanwhile, stocks are treading water ahead of this weekend’s French elections. It’s almost worth taking a VIX positions here, in the event Le Pen pulls an upset. There’s also a distinct chance markets might sell the news too, even with a Macron win.

Personally, I am comfy being long military stocks — ahead of the wars to come. My only high beta plays are OAS and ATI, and I also have some DB.

If I was buying stocks purely on what Exodus was saying, today I’d be adding to oil, copper and iron/ore/steel stocks. The whole basic resource sector is deeply oversold — bedraggled by malevolent traders who’ve been driving down prices because it feels good.

Not before long, those fuckers will be riding on the bottom of my pirate vessel — with the ocean serving as a means to strip their skin right off their haggardly bones.

Bottom line: buy commodities, maybe take a VIX floater heading into the weekend.

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26 comments

  1. derp

    Remember back to the future part 2. The alternate 1985. The suburb was walled off with private security and people guarded their front doors with shotguns and Kevlar. That’s our best case scenario. The South Africans are already at that point.

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  2. bearraid

    South Africa, Cuba, and Venezuela are the end result of “equality of outcome” politics. We’re so fucked if we go that route.

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    • frog

      Not so. We are way far in the other direction. We need to come more toward a moderate position. Almost all of wealth is going to the top 1%. People work hard, increase their productivity, and get no increase in their share of the profits.

      Of course if we went all the way to where South Africa, Cuba, and Venezuela are, that would be bad. But we won’t. We’ll keep giving everything to the top .01% until the pitchforks come out and there is chaos. Because that’s our ingrained Right Wing nation habit now that just keeps going on and on. Even tons of people who complain about inequality, often vote for Republicans, who make it worse, because they believe GOP propaganda lies.

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      • bearraid

        Fake news. I worked my ass off, took risks and made my first million in my mid twenties. No one gave me anything.

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        • frog

          Of course, everyone is exactly a xerox copy of you. So if someone gets sick, then drug companies should be able to gouge them for huge amounts of money for drugs that cost pennies to make. And all other crony capitalist welfare queens should be able to gouge and defraud everyone in every way possible.

          So you worked hard and were also lucky, and made a million in your twenties. If everyone who worked hard in their twenties made a million, your position might be fair. But that’s not the case.

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          • bearraid

            The whole point of working hard is to get ahead. That’s the problem with communism, zero incentive do do anything more than what keeps a bullet out of your head. This isn’t hard to think through.

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          • heaterman

            Apparently it does not compute for Frog bearraid.

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      • clock

        Monsieur Frog…get a haircut and
        put away that peace sign and dream
        polo ponies and such, instead of…
        “would you like fries with that”?

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  3. ferd

    “The sooner you realize we’re heading for a Mad Max world, the better prepare you’ll be for the uprising.” And the better prepared we all are, the less likely that we’ll have that Mad Max world.

    A Boston water main broke awhile back. Within three hours, people were pushing and shoving to get to the bottled water distribution truck. Three hours.

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  4. frog

    “the only acceptable form of ‘western democracy’ is hard left leaning liberal. Anything suggestive of nationalism or intermingled with conservative ideals is quickly eschewed and discredited for its overt racism and nazism.”

    Not so. Bernie was for limiting immigration and for trade deals that helped American workers, which is nationalism, although he also is Left leaning.

    Hard Left Leaning liberal, or even Right Wing liberal like HIllary, though, is not acceptable in the U.S. So government is dominated by Right Wing Republicans in all branches and at all levels.

    Because voters here love voting for Republicans who will screw them over and over and over again. Then they love complaining about how awful government is, and then voting those same Republicans back into the government again. Voters here just never learn.

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    • ferd

      Have you forgotten ..your party conspired with MSM to destroy Bernie.

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      • frog

        I wish they had not been biased toward Hillary, as I was for Bernie in the primaries. But it was not illegal of them to be biased toward one candidate. And for every questionable thing Hillary or those surrounding her have done, Trump has done things 1000X worse.

        Though I preferred Bernie, we would be very lucky to have Hillary as president today. People who didn’t vote for her are already regretting it, and there will be more later.

        Trump is an abomination, handing the government over totally to crony capitalist welfare queen companies.

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      • frog

        The RNC probably favors one candidate in the primaries. When you have one side only getting hacked, then the other side gets to pretend that they are as pure as the driven snow. But the very reason Republicans cooperated with Russia to get the DNC hacked is because they are extremely corrupt.

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  5. BenCBrainard

    There will be no sell the news.

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  6. bennyhill

    Wow the comments on the Nye gender thread are insane, you people must live under a rock. Chromosomes drive your sexual organ, not necessarily your gender. For those that think a “trans” kid should be forced to be a gender they don’t identify with, check out suicide rates when parents try that.

    I’ve never understood people who think trans or gay people should be “corrected”. If you feel that way, aren’t you basically saying that you yourself could be swayed one way or the other? You men must believe that if you were in a woman’s body right now, you could just switch your brain over to being a woman? Of if you were born attracted to other men you would be able to switch over to liking women. Isn’t that basically saying you are bisexual?

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    • ericbakerbruce
      ericbakerbruce

      My money is on bennyshill being a eunuch.

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      • frog

        My money is on Right Wing dunces like Eric here always trying to fantasize bad personal characteristics for progressives, because they are too dumb to argue facts.

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    • derp

      Instead of giving your own posts a thumbs up you could try plugging that thumb up your ass

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    • hattery

      Suicide rates for transgenders are sky high regardless of surgury or not. It’s like 40%. One of the only groups of people with higher suicide rates are schizophrenics (like 60%)
      However, unlike many republicans who say transgenderism is a mental disease, I’m willing to concede it is more likely a cry for help for at least some percentage of them.
      Normalizing transgenderism is no more helpful than normalizing people who hear voices in their head, referring to them as “trans audio” and then using them as a political weapon to bash the other side as “anti audio” and “hateful bigots” for suggesting they get help and suggesting mental health reform in general which would also help reduce gun fatalities that the liberals are so worried about. We should be far more concerned about reducing the suicide rate then trotting then out as a political and cultural weapon against the right to score political points.

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  7. riskonly

    Balls Deep Long TAHO $10 and CLF $7 June Calls. Grabbed a small position in GDX calls for next week as well.

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  8. mx2101

    I smile when Fly uses the phrase
    “Bear with me…”

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  9. bushwacker2

    Bought some GDX here for a trade. F— the French elections and Frogs political commentary.

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  10. snoozer

    defense stocks are can’t miss. They were actually can’t miss with either Hillary or Trump. Have been loading up on LMT, RTN, BA, UTX. Although just holding now, wait for a macro dip. Did load up on KTOS yesterday on a gut – got lucky. La Pen has zero chance. Europe has been watching our Idiot in Chief. Wilders was toast, now La Pen. Then Merkel will win by a landslide in Germany. Thanks to the BLOTUS.

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    • bob smith

      Yeah, that’s a shame. Trump essentially blew it for La Pen by betraying his base for $$$.

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  11. it is showtime
    it is showtime

    Reset&added: EPV

    Will do again Monday, if necessary. DAX CAC FTSE being obviously forced up. Can go more but it’s all fake and that’s all that matters to me. I will reset and maintain allocation until they can’t get higher. I can get 1 more than they can…

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