Made Some Errors, Exodus Quant Crushes Again

This whole trading gambit is for idiots. I am serious. My quant portfolio has a Sharpe over 2 and has crushed the SPY in over 75% over the time this year. For the week, it moved higher by 0.41%, about 7bps better than the SPY. Although higher today very nicely, stocks didn’t bode too well for the week and most high beta names dropped in value.

I made my adjustments for the week and carry on without a care in the world.

On the other hand, and I am pointing this out as a perfect example, my discretionary portfolio is filled with murderholes. Just yesterday, I was sucking the knee caps off of FIZZ; today’s it’s scrambling lower. Let’s not even mention my UVXY position. The more I think about it, the more comfortable in never trading like this again, instead favoring quantitative strategies that can be analyzed and tweaked, without flawed human intuition.

For those who purchased my story today, via Amazon, just know that I just made revisions to it after finding some errors. Ten thousand apologies for that. It should be almost flawless now.

Today is Jean Sebelius birthday, a national holiday in Finland.

Enjoy.

Here’s part 2 of a 3 part story that I’ve been writing. I think you’ll enjoy it. The paperback should be published soon, just in time for the holidays. I strongly suggest wrapping several dozen of these books and giving them to all of your friends and family members.

Don’t forget to leave a very nice, heartfelt, review on Amazon. The sale of these books will help provide me with enough income to buy random trinkets, like gum or coffee beans.

Journey into Fear: when the dot com bubble burst

Yesterday I bought some milk/egg free egg nog from Whole Foods and it was delicious. I took a respite from my dairy/meat free diet for Thanksgiving, but I’m firmly back in the saddle now — practically starving myself to death. People ask me all the time, “Fly, why the heck are you a pescatarian/vegan — those people are assholes?”

Precisely. “I’m a team player,” is my typical response to them. In corporate America, if you go against someone who says such a thing, you could and should be fired and it instantly has a pavlovian effect on people, quieting them down — enabling me to move freely throughout the area eschewing disgusting meats and rancid cheeses.

FYI: My new book is being published now. You should be able to purchase it later on today.

The DAX is +1.2% and Santa Claus is coming. I hope you’ve been shopping, wrapping those expensive gifts for your kids, who will idly shove them aside immediately after opening them. It’s a brutal affair, the holiday season — and I am always thrilled to see it end. New Year’s is just about the perfect holiday, all very hedonistic and ritualistic. Get drunk, make a commitment, think aspirational, get more drunk.

WTI is +1.2% and Bitcoin is getting crrrrrushed, off by 11.5% to 14,700.

What if I applied the Exodus algorithms to cryptos? I can do it, you know. Organize all 1,300 ICOs and grade them by their trading patterns. Food for thought.

Nasdaq futs +33.

Here’s some other nonsense for your perusal.

Synaptics upgraded to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer
Flowserve downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Celgene upgraded to Overweight at Atlantic Equities
Rockwell Automation resumed with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $193
HollyFrontier downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill

Gapping up:
TROV +41.3%, SIGM +23.2%, GLBS +22.7%, ERYP +20.8%, GLBR +11.1%, DCIX +8%, CLDR +7.8%, ALXN +7.3%, FSCT +7.1%, VSTM +4.5%, DEA +4.4%, OLED +4%, SAIC +3.5%, DTEA +2.4%, DRYS +2%, CUTR +2%, HIMX +1.9%, UAL +1.8%, BA +1.1%, DAL +1.1%, SGMO +0.9%, MNOV +0.9%, RDUS +0.8%

Gapping down:
AOBC -16.6%, AQMS -16.3%, TELL -14.5%, CVO -10.9%, GSAT -7.9%, COO -3.3%, PRTY -3%, FENC -3%, FNSR -3%, ERIC -1%, DOV -0.7%

In a world where thousand percent gains are common place and inflation is the desirable outcome in all economic policies, earning a ‘hundy roll’ from $98 to $106 seems rather pedestrian. I’ve been tasked with the great job of seeing WLK shoot higher and shall make sure that it accomplishes its meager goals. Big deal, right?

Prepare for $106 within a fortnight.

With regard to FIZZ, let it be know that up until very recently, I never had the privilege and the honor of consuming their La Crax water. I ventured upon doing so last week and purchased coconut La Crax, and let me tell you, I am addicted. Since then, I’ve been drinking La Crax. like a drug addict fishing for loose change in a bottomless drawer for crack. I’ve owned the stock for quite some time now and only now do I understand the true value proposition.

If you’re shorting this stock as a way of fading Le Fly, I promise you, on Jupiter’s Stone, I will cut your balls off and then bash your head in two with them.

Nasdaq jumped higher by ~0.5% and my gains we just about twice that. Back to editing my book.

It’s hard to tell where the true price for Bitcoin is now, especially with Bitfinex down all day long, hit hard with DDOS attacks. Someone on the site said it took him 45 minutes to get into his Coinbase account, which caused him to miss out on 3,000 points. These are all unfortunate growing pains.

Now prices are tumbling, from a high of $19,600 on the sketchy GDAX to just under $15,000 now.

Well, it was certainly fun while it lasted.

BTC is gyrating all around and was greater than WMT earlier. But at present peasant prices of $16,200, Bitcoin’s marker cap is $270 billion, or $50 billion more than Visa.

Think about that.

Here’s some of Bitcoin’s next targets on the mega cap market cap list.

$PFE: $208b
$CHL: $211b
$CVX: $218b
$PG: $223
$RDS.b: $227b
$V: $227b
Bitcoin: $270b
$WFC: $277b
$BAC: $287b
$WMT: $288b
$BABA: $341b
$JPM: $350b
$XOM: $355b
$BRK.a: $444b

In light of the world’s largest crypto exchange, Bitfinex, threatening legal action against critics talking shit online, Citron just tweet they’d cover the legal expenses of bloggers who voiced their opinions. The issue is their relationship with Tether, another crypto that has been rumored by many to be nothing less than a god damned fraud.

Here’s the scoop.

Bitfinex, the largest Bitcoin exch has threatened legal action against critics. Could be the Lehman moment of Bitcoin. https://t.co/wjPk19dZeG Citron has agreed to cover legal fees for bloggers expressing opinions. We have been in contact. Open dialogue in markets is important

— Citron Research (@CitronResearch) December 7, 2017

Related: Citron tweeted out they are now short GBTC at $1,800.

That being said the $GBTC premium has evaporated and now we cautiously entered a new short position at $1800 on GBTC.

— Citron Research (@CitronResearch) December 7, 2017

It all makes sense to me now. I feel like Neo from the Matrix, at the end when the bullets are whizzing towards his brain. You cannot stop the Bitcoin, but only hope to contain it. All of your stocks are hideously retarded and you should neck yourselves for having money in stocks instead of coins.

Being the owner of iBankCoin, I feel it is my duty to let you know this.

Also, Bitcoin just past 17,000. How’s them apples, fucked face? Note: BTC hit a high of 19,600 today.

Bitcoin's market cap just passed Wal-Mart.

Yes, that Wal-Mart:
Founded in 1962
World's largest employer (2.3 million employees)
World's largest company by revenue ($495 billion)
World's largest retailer$BTC.X $WMT pic.twitter.com/JQuCdsRtcQ

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 7, 2017

Sadly, this is only a Bitcoin party, as the rest of the cryptofags are getting inexorably beat down.

Have a look.

Quite sad, isn’t it?

Don’t worry, I’m sure this pullback is a buyable dip and all of you nerds will be making computer money again.

Back to the moribund world of equities. Shares of SHAK are barnstorming higher this morning after a Morgan Stanley upgrade, raising his target to $41. Naturally, people are retarded, bidding up the stock way past $41; but I digress.

Via FlyontheWall:

As previously reported, Morgan Stanley analyst John Glass upgraded Shake Shack to Equal Weight from Underweight, noting that the company has lifted its unit openings forecast in each of the last three years and is now growing company units at nearly 40%, which he points out is the fastest in the restaurant sector. Additionally, better disclosures from the company have increased his confidence in his long-term model and validated strong performance at the store level, added Glass, who raised his price target on Shake Shack shares to $41 from $34.

Via Benzinga:

Glass’ upgrade of the burger chain is based on three factors.

The company’s unit growth has consistently come in ahead of expectations in each of the past three years with no reason to think 2018 would be any different. In fact, company units are growing at 40 percent which represents the fastest growth rate among any restaurant and each new unit adds up to $750,000 in EBITDA.

Management’s improved disclosure on average unit volumes (AUVs) and margins by region should improve investor sentiment and confidence in understanding the longer-term outlook.

The analyst’s revised valuation model based on updated unit growth and improved margin profile implies a value of $41 under the current tax code but a tax reform program could add another $9 per share of value.

Bottom line, Shake Shack is among the very few if only emerging growth company under Glass’ coverage to consistently meet or beat top line results, the analyst said. As such, with fewer than 100 units in the U.S., there is “ample room” for the company to more than triple its store base.

Bottom line: SHAK is one of the few companies in the restaurant biz who have been growing very rapidly. When the stock came public several years ago, it shot higher, but couldn’t sustain prices because the underwriters priced it too expensively. Remember, the underwriters are part and parcel of a great global Ponzi scheme and their sole concern is fees and ripping you off. At any rate, since then the stock has ‘grown into’ its valuation, as the shares have done nothing at all for two years.

Here, have a look at the valuation compression, courtesy of Exodus.

The former Goldman alumni and professional stock hustler, part time owner of shitty Mexican restaurant in Brooklyn, got up this morning and decided to talk greasy about Bitcoin again — saying bitcoin is the least functional market he’s ever seen and how the owners of bitcoin do not seem to be piggish, whatsoever. He queried that sellers might step in when the crypto market surpassed $1 trillion in cap, which is more than double present values.

All in all, Cramer doesn’t have a god damned idea what he’s talking about.