SPECIAL SITUATION: WAR IN NIGER

Let’s catch you up to speed.

Former French colonies are now called ECOWAS. France prints francs for them pegged to the euro and in return they had to hold 50% of their reserves at the Bank of France. One of those nations was Niger. Last week the Niger govt was toppled by a military dictator, who is pro Russian. PMC Wagner operates in several adjacent African nations and might be assisting the junta in Niger.

Who needs Niger? 90% of Niger is without electricity and is one of the poorest nations on earth.

Well, it just so happens Niger is one of the largest suppliers of Uranium, actually the main supplier to France. Thirty percent of French uranium comes from Niger and they just suspended exports to France after France and other ECOWAS states threatened war. The military junta in Niger had been given a deadline to surrender and allow the western friendly regime take back power.

Spot Uranium

All of this leads to the trade I’m in now: spot 308. Befor this war uranium prices were squeezing higher, because let’s not forget Russia is a major supplier of uranium too. If France cannot get Niger back into its fold, there is going to be a problem in the EU and this might lead to another spike in LNG and coal prices.

It bears repeating, attacks on the new Niger junta are imminent. The way this will play out isn’t clear and I’m thinking a risk premium might be applied, especially if Russia actively supports Niger to fend off western attacks.

Since the entire market is 7 stocks, I will show their valuations and compare them to the past to get an idea on whether or not we’re in a fucking bubble.

APPLE
PE 33.15x
PS 8x

3 yr avg
PE 28x
PS 7x

MICROSOFT
PE 34.8X
PS 11.8X

3 yr avg
PE 30.6
PS 10.8X

GOOGLE
PE 27.9X
PS 5.8X

3 yr avg
PE 24.7X
PS 5.87X

AMAZON
PS 2.6X

3 yr avg
PS 2.69X

NVIDIA (LOL)
PS 45X

3 yr avg
PS 29X

TESLA
PS 9X

3 yr avg
PS 11.1x

META
PE 37.6x
PS 6.95x

3 yr avg
PE 25x
PS 5.5x

You be the fucking judge. Look here Jack, the only stock on that list that is “cheap” is Tesla and that guy is now solely focused on fucking with liberals at X. I am long Tesla and love it and have created a focus account just for it — but I hope it comes down so that I can buy more.

But you also have to take what I am saying with a grain of homemade salt. I, in fact, have just 1 leg now — with the other braced the fuck up after a heinous pickle ball injury. And, I am generally disdainful of how America is today — which is a family tradition in aging House Fly males. I remember my grandfather throwing his slippers at the TV because “some communist scum” had said something he didn’t approve of. THAT BEING SAID, there is a difference between now and then, such as now they’re targeting the children and they’re truly cajoling them to become gay and/or to sever their cocks. All of this, and much more, is in fact BEARISH for stocks — as societal collapse is deserving of a valuation DISCOUNT not a premium.

On the other hand, what if “this time is different” and we’re truly in a new paradigm of technological improvement, buoyed by productive SLAVE-CATTLE and innovation which will lead us to brand new discoveries and pleasure domains whereby men and women alike will live in harmony and fornicate with one another in public view and lavish themselves with the very best wares made by migrants in Europe — making everyone feel, individually, very grand and important — as if life was designed specifically for them to enjoy and not to procreate or build families — but to simply exist and become more and more important with each booster shot injected directly into their hearts.

A few days ago a new development in the wonderful world semiconductors was tweeted out — went viral — and then speculation ensued.

Today might have seen the biggest physics discovery of my lifetime. I don't think people fully grasp the implications of an ambient temperature / pressure superconductor. Here's how it could totally change our lives.

— Alex Kaplan (@alexkaplan0) July 26, 2023

What the fuck are superconductors and who makes them?

We can make layman bets based on rudimentary evidence. We know NVDA, AMD and MU are making high speed chips. But let’s get stupid — shall we? We can delve into the Quantum computing space and ASSume they’re gonna be players. The truth is, most of the early runners in a space rarely turn out to be players.

NEVERTHELESS, we play them anyway — for the honor and the glory.

I am playing the following

AAOI, AMSC (they have “superconductor” in their fucking name). I traded in and out of QSI, QUBT today — but there are others. I suspect there will be more speculation in this space soon. I also suspect certain areas of the market will remain hot.

What are some areas to look into?

RARE EARTH, LIDAR, AUTONOMOUS, EV, EV CHARGING, CRYPTO MINERS, AI,VR, BNPL, Quantum computing, Flying Taxis, Chinese buriito, and good olde fashioned oil and gas drillers.

I’ve found bull runs are often highlighted by themes and these themes are usually temporary — but explosive. I have all of these themes and others organized inside Stocklabs. I believe if you’re gonna play the runners — you must keep organized lists of who the players are. For example, this weekend I will research all I can about SUPERCONDUCTORS and try to learn about some stocks I’ve never heard of — which of course is rare for me.

I closed +28bps, after being down 50bps from the open thanks to opportunistic trades.

Listen to me again —

If you’re looking at this tape, NASDAQ +275, and thinking “maybe us bears still have a chance” — you Sir are most stupidly dispositioned. It’s important to know when to retreat and when to give them the bayonet. The field has been cleared — there is no one left to fight the tranny bulls. You have, Sir, been shot.

There is nothing more for you to see here — go home to your families and children and bask in the sun for the remainder of your time and know that you gave it your all — but the tranny bulls were just too much for you to handle.

We are in a bull fucking market — and nothing can be said otherwise.

Breadth is a paltry 67%, but the verve and trickery in which this market has operated this week — fooling bears into coming out of their dens only to shoot canister into their bearded faces — is remarkable.

If you’re thinking about an afternoon collapse — GET IT OUT OF YOUR HEADS — for that will never and can never happen!

I closed out my UVIX at the open for a loss and have done little trading until this past hour, as I am now long a pastiche of very low brow and degenerate stocks in the hopes of seeing them jimmy higher.

Good day —

Today we bore witness to a most grotesque market reversal and hundreds of stocks falling by more than 5%. Before we gain erections, you should remember that all market drawdowns, at least recently, has resulted in a mean reversion lift.

The difference is, this go around being different and all, JOE FUCKING BIDEN IS BRAINDEAD and the bond market is in turmoil — as the Federal Reserve fixes itself onto America’s middled class in a most deleterious manner.

I am trading small — but closed with a 10% hedge in UVIX. My intent or goal is to profit from America’s financial collapse. If that should not materialize, I also intend on profiting off sharply higher stocks.

All bear markets start somewhere. Let’s hope today is the start of something truly terrible.

The bond market is speaking volumes about the present situation. I had been sanguine on recent events, given the collapse in inflation. HOWEVER, judging by the US 10YR soaring above 4% today, up 17bps, I am once again motivated to remind you that PAX AMERICANA, as you know it, is most certainly over.

Whilst the NASDAQ is down just 42, the small capped index is off by 1.3% in line with the Stocklabs 4000 — down 1.4%.

Listen to me very closely.

There is a fever boiling in Ukraine that isn’t exactly favorable to the alliance. WTI is up 1.3% and the Euro is down 0.9% against the dollar, suggestive that the move yesterday was nonsense and the FOMC will hike some more and soon.

With VIX barely $14 and so much fucking risk out there, the easy play here, inexorably, is to sell this shit fucking short into the ground.

It’s pretty god damned hot out there — must be all of that global warming caused by hairspray which is preventing me from not being a little bit cooler. The market might appear to be boring, somewhat listless, but this is the process of consolidation that precedes another big move.

We must assume, as much as it pains our hearts, that markets will BUST LOOSE to the upside again. Do not get mad at me, for I am just a messenger.

I’m back to a most austere form of living — sustaining on about 1200 cals per day NO FUCKING BOOZE EVER and some form of working out every single day. I will do this as a penance for becoming so rotund. If just tuning in, I recently found out I had gained 10 pounds without knowing, most likely caused by leading a hedonistic lifestyle of being a foodie and generally stuffing my face with treats. Well, those fucking days are over and I will soon resemble a skeleton with people fearing for my well being.

I’m +12bps today, with zero trading other than a few random things. Markets are in full TRICKERY mode and I ought to be careful with it, lest I too might fall into a drum of gasoline and rolled into an oven.

The giant piece of shit hated by all at Facebook has beat estimates again. I happen to own META in trust accounts — because monopolies are easy to profit, hard to destroy.

The ghettos of the internet are immensely popular for both owners and creators, filling an echo chamber with well wishes and inane perversity to placate an otherwise listless and un-demurred generation.

I traded light, kept hedges, lost 21bps. It’s easy to lose money in markets ill designed for your trading habits. This is not my market — but I’ll adjust soon.

So the FOMC hikes and rates went down. What does that tell you?

We’re at 5.5% and the Fed is committed to striking against while the iron is hot to “defeat inflation.” This is going to 100% rain fire onto the economy in about 6 months time. I remember in 2007 when this shit happened last and all of you faggots were joyful and gleeful and ignored the warnings signs — and then we fucking collapsed full fledged into the gates of hell.

We’re not there yet — obviously. No one gives a fuck — certainly not you. The gameplan for most Americans is to live as fat off the land for as long as possible and then drop dead. This has been the stratagem for the past 40 years, as we’ve lived FAT and sloppily off the civilization HANDED DOWN to us from a more industrious people.

Whether it happens in our lifetimes or not is unknown. But, rest assured, it’s gonna fucking happen and a Black Plague will sweep the lands and take with it all of the material items and resources with it.

This might be a bit much for a slow afternoon in the midst of America winning the war against both Ukraine and Russia.

I am hedged, heavily cashed up, not interested in being fooled — off to ride some fucking Go-Karts.

Think about it: who the fuck do those bastards think they are — raising interest rates on us — costing us inordinate sums of money all because the Federal Govt handed out checks to the poors, all because they shut down the economy because of the flu, all because they grifted and schemed with MRNA makers to both injure and steal from people.

I know some of you CUNTS believe the govt is this innocuous band of patriotic morons who’d never intentionally injure people for profit. What makes you so sure of that? If I told you they were all space aliens with zero attachment to humans in America — would it be more believable then?

Here’s the deal Jack — the Fed has gotten away with a lot of murders and they’re about to hike rates again today, as unbelievable as that might seem. The CPI is already down to 3% and those CUNTS, because they want their policy to come to fruition, will not stop until the CPI is 2%.

What that means for the rest of us is higher rates for purchases and/or higher cost of money period. The good news is, many of the people here already have money. The bad news is, your kids who are just now entering the workforce are 100% fucked.