Trading Stocks is No Place For Self-Indulgent Ideologues

Way back in the days, during the nascency of my career as a stockbroker, now presently disguised as something honorable with the term “investment advisor” aka parasitic boozehound, I often felt special enough to be able to front run a large directional shift in the market. Much of this belief was rooted in narcissism and my early success in America Online, an investment I made out of High School that turned $6k into $250k. Truth of the matter is and was, I was simply at the right place and at the right time. I did not invent the internet and AOL wasn’t all that risky — given their pole position in the industry.

Years after AOL, I tried to duplicate that success over a variety of stocks, some in sectors that I had no business even pretending to be a pseudo-intellectual in. The net result was disappointment though disillusionment, followed by a recalcitrant stubbornness. I brooked no path towards being humbled and ended up destroyed and ruined as a result.

In plain terms, the market never bankrupts or ruins people. People ruin themselves via hubris.

For example, things looked terrible into the New Year, correct?

The poorhouse is littered with geniuses and former trading gurus who started to believe in their own grandness. I know nothing more than the market, the all encompassing redoubt of human knowledge and ingenuity.

If you were being honest with yourself, like I was here on January 4th, you would’ve covered your shorts and went long on this day.

All of the ingredients for an extended rally were present, buoyed by oil and high yield price reflation. I ended up trading in and out of about 20 stocks for profit since then and currently own a variety of low brow speculative gambles, all for the express purposes of EXTREME and delicious profit.

If you’re short here, you’re merely anticipating the market and not trading with it. Think about it.

Intellectually, I am a bear. There are a sundry of items that can dislodge the economy and the market; but I choose to remain obedient to price action, and not the caprices of my own, insulated, opinions.

Here’s a data dump of things I am looking at on a fundamental level that will affect price action in the markets.

Happy Saturday.

Hedging is one thing. Being net short is a whole new ball game, one festooned with indecorous qualities of a lesser man. If you’re shorting here in size and vigor, listen to me now — don’t do that. The trend is indelibly higher. I don’t know how else to describe things to you, other than offering insults and calling you a fucking asshole.

LOOK AT THIS CHART. LOOK AT IT.

Go short after you get a large red candle. Do it and stick with it until it stops working. Expect volatility and losses are part and parcel of this game. Instead of anticipating where the market is going to be — why not try being where the market is now?

Be the sheep. Eat the grass. Be on guard for the wolves. Fuck off.

This morning, responding to my inner bear, I bought FAZ. Then I got to thinking ‘hmm, that ACB I bought yesterday looks great and so does the cannabis sector’, which I keep neat and tidy inside Exodus. So then I bought CRON and APHA, fully and confidently aroused by the idea of people wasting their braincells on pot, all for the direct benefit of my purse (no homo).

Dare I say, I am a drug dealer now?

I’m looking for gains of the immediate sort. Should you get in my way and attempt to stop me, I will have no choice but to remove your arms from your body. Should you continue to harass me and plague me with your presence, I will then kick you down a sewer pipe and be done with you.

I cannot be stopped, because the laws of physics demand it this way.

Yesterday I went dumpster diving under the auspices of a strong market — buoyed by my desire to accumulate more gains. This is a never-ending conquest of mine that does not age, or whither, bend, or fold. It grows, exponentially, in both desire and method. Sometimes I wonder why I trade at all, when I could happily live out the rest of my days, independently ignorant to the whims of the market, write essays and concoct schemes inside Exodus to make investing better, cleaner. I suppose my passion is rooted in the idea of immortality, being able to leave a legacy, having constructed to impress upon the world ideas that make life better.

Why else live, if not to contribute and improve the world?

Without money, only time is valuable. I’ve never been charitable with my time — because I’m selfish in that regard.

Early going, markets are weak, as well as oil, and bonds are strong. Up until last week, markets did not bottom on Fridays. We’re butting up against what I called “the FAGbox”, which is a crude and heavy handed way of saying upward resistance of the chop varietal. It’s entirely possible markets might not trade a single point higher from yesterday’s close for the balance of 2019. If this is a bear market, we should be prepared for disappointment, only hedged by a coldness in emotion and mechanical disciplines to extricate us from risky investments.

I’m prepared to liquidate fast, and with regularity. I do intend to become the DRIP God once again — and presently look forward to another squall in markets to make the pigs squeal.

Our overbought signal has been running at an 85% success ratio clip the past 36mos. Due to the recent dislocation of markets, I was hesitant to accept this indication as something to rely upon. Alas, a few days following the most recent signal and it has proven to be invaluable once again.

What does this mean?

The mood of investors is brightened during periods of excessive bullishness to the point that is builds upon itself and causes V shaped rallies. This might not last forever; but has been the case recently and now, which also lends to the idea that this market isn’t done going higher.

I allocated 25% of my trading account into the names mentioned in the title. I did so because price action demanded it from me.

They are trash and underserving of my attention, but markets like them, so I am buying them.

WHO AM I TO ARGUE WITH PRICE ACTION?

I head out into the sun 40% cash, fully ready to charge into the market with all of it — should prices continue higher.

Remember, watch USO, HYG, SRLN to get a sense of where risk is and if you need to be long, short, or in cash.

Still stupid? Subscribe to Exodus or Capstone.

Good day.

It was a dry, humorous interview at the Economic Club of DC, which included gratuitous laughter and nonsensical reveals about Jerome Powell, such as his uncanny ability, bestowed upon him from birth, to automatically pronounce any word said to him backwards.

PRONOUNCE THIS BACKWARDS POWELL: ECAF KCUF

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) January 10, 2019

The Dow turned lower after Powell made those balance sheet comments.

Highlight: Stocks take a turn for the worse after Fed Chair Jerome Powell says, "We don't know the exact level the balance sheet will end up at once quantitative tightening is over." @scottgamm reports from the floor of the @NYSE.https://t.co/ObzMOMFjVy pic.twitter.com/dojgNsZAYW

— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) January 10, 2019

Why is this a concern? Because it’s deflationary and, in theory, should hurt equity prices.

#Fed's Powell: We want to have the balance sheet return to a more normal level… no larger than it needs to be to conduct monetary policy effectively. Dow Jones turns negative an Powell's remark about balance sheet at Economic Club of Washington. pic.twitter.com/e6sYstYMbV

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) January 10, 2019

That being said, there is very change in bond and commodity markets. I’d like to see market go lower with some energy before initiating some short positions.

Sheila Bair, former FDIC chair, went on CNBC today and talked very greasy about the banks. Essentially, she declared they were not adequately capitalized, needed counter-cyclical capital buffer — something the Fed is not likely to impose at this time.

In true bearshitter fashion, she warned about leveraged loans, capital buffers, ballooning corporate debt, and even retorted to Faber’s suggestion that the banks were better off now than before 2008 as ‘fake news.’

A must watch for all trader, especially perma-bulls

I sold 13 stocks and made money on just about all of them, with UXIN and JD being my biggest winners. Most were small gains, one as small as +0.2%. Often times people stop themselves from booking small gains, believing they’re too small to book, and then later end up taking small losses. Ever notice how fucking stupid that is?

Book the small gains and the large.

I am now 65% cash, waiting once again in the tall grass. Trades will be executed and communicated in real time, inside the hallowed halls of Exodus. I want confirmation of a break lower before shorting. Truth is, I am just as likely to buy stock than to short them. The reasoning for my sales was to HARVEST MY CROPS, regroup, take another look at the market, in order to effectively allocate. While that might seem like a lot of circle jerking for very little benefit, truth is, we’re up against the resistance point of 6,650 that I’ve been targeting, so I am staying true to that.

Markets were down a lot more today, following the best 10 day run in the markets since 2009. Ergo, and this goes without saying, it’s not a terrible idea to book profits here, AND MOVE TO CASH.

That’s right, Bottle Nose — move to cash.

I’m gonna post a video later today of the former FDIC chair talking greasy about stocks. When I see people like that getting bearish, it makes me nervous — because in previous downturns, fuckers like her foreshadowed grim days ahead.

Powell is going to make a speech soon and the market looks okay. But one was never hurt by harvesting his crops. It’s an easy thing to do, so get out there and do it.