iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,125 Blog Posts

I WAS PROVEN WRONG

I’ll eat crow.

My positions as of yesterday were good and profitable. Today, things are different and I am adjusting to what I see as a new narrative. Now I could be proven wrong again, should things revert on Monday; but if I’m being honest with my workflow — this is what I see now.

Oil higher
Oil stocks higher
High yield bonds higher
Leverage loans bonds higher
Small caps higher

With all of that being real and tangible, I had no choice but to close out all of my shorts.

Here were my losses:

DRV -1.6%
SOXS -1.7%
LABD -8%
DRIP -13%

The only outsized position there was DRV — at 10% of holdings. Total loss on portfolio was 1.26% on these holdings.

My gold positions are down too — but I will hold those until next week.

NOTE: With cash, I bought ZEN, MDB, BL, SIVB, BRZU and FCX. Cash is now 5%.

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7 comments

  1. goose20

    Fly I could also be wrong here but really like BB here looks like Btm is in. Time will tell and have stop loss in at -5%.

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  2. edge

    My losses are similar. I’m calling it a wait and see day. I’m money ahead, weakening economy, shutdown government. The shutdown could be a .3-.4% dent in GDP per month, with growth presently in the 1-2% range.

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    • JakeGint

      How can you even make that comment? Less than 20% of the gummint is shut down, and for all we know that lack of kluge is *helping* the economy.

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      • tradercaddy

        Jake speaks the truth.
        The Government shutdown just means you better bring your own toilet paper to the Lincoln Memorial.
        Just sold all my OIH,IWM,IJR etfs held since 12/31 and added a bit more to my GDXJ.

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  3. edge

    S&P hitting resistance at last Friday’s highs.

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  4. ferd

    Keep the lack of faith. I’ll likely be shorting a semi by end of day.

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  5. chumpdaddy

    My post from last night 839pm est

    “I agree maybe not tomorrow. There are brave bottom pickers who bought the first sickening plunge and who are still nibbling on “value” and still up. And the put/call ratio is up a bit (at least the 10day average). Maybe it has to go up just a tad before the next big down leg.

    You just have to figure out the scenario which will fool most people, make the most people utterly destroyed emotionally, so that they turn on their babies, MU, AMD and the rest of their bratty tech kids.

    Then that’s the bottom.”

    Last night the 10 day moving average of the put/call ratio moved up to a point where it is a contrarian indicator. In other words, too many retail investors were holding too many puts.

    The vix futures curve is still inverted

    http://vixcentral.com

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