18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,617 Blog Posts


Far be it from me to offer any advice outside the world of where my expertise resides. But as a leader here on the internets — I’d be remiss not to remind you to ignore everything you cannot control. My opinions on politics and how you should live are meaningless, as I am powerless to enact control. I am, however, powerful in the field of finance and can easily sway public opinion to shit or salute markets. The way a domino effect works is simple and easy to do. I’m not avoiding news here, but instead purposely choosing to discuss issues that can make your life better.

As I get older I realize my previous errors, most of which having to do with wasting time. I am not here to fuck around and dick-off with jackasses to discuss the democratic debates or gun control. “The Fly” is a blunt instrument of financial winship, sovereign in the field of financial blogging, and couldn’t give a fuck about what a fellow financial advisor thinks about social issues.

I am here to tell you, rather directly, that in precisely 12 hours from now — your portfolios will be under direct fire and immersed in flames — ruined by junior at the trading turrets, sending you comically seaworthy into a wave of misery.

I, on the other had, find myself hedged heavily in SOXS, TZA and DRIP. I didn’t tell you that on Friday — because picks are for closers only — members of the Exodus platform.

Good night and good day.

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Here Are the Top Rated ETFs in Exodus Now

Will markets get destroyed tomorrow or will we bounce? Whatever might happen, the top rated ETFs are now defensive or bearish, indicative of the late week squall which overtook Wall.

Did you hedge, raise cash or short — or did you buy the dip?

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Beware of a Bored Media — A Courrection is Coming

We’ve gone thru all of 2019 cheery eyed and in a good mood. Nothing stopped the rally, not even Trump. Now with summer winding down, being an expert and all on finance and media, I can see where these journalists are going. As a matter of fact, if you speak to enough ‘experts’ in finance — you’d know that the vast majority of people believe we are in an unconscionable bubble. “We’re living on borrowed time”, said the man at the fashionable cocked tail party.

Who would disagree?

This past week was the worst performing week of 2019 and now people have it in their minds MOAR is coming. Ergo, and this goes without saying — PREPARE FOR RUIN.

Of course I’m talking my book to a certain degree, having tossed on a few large hedges at the end of Friday’s session. But even on the most rudimentary base level thinking, this whole trade war business, coupled with the Fed meddling with interest rates, is a god damned red flag worth worrying about.

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I was going to get long into the close but nothing was popping out and we registered THREE BLACK SOLDIERS on the Nasdaq.

The beginning of the late 2018 market squall.


In short, we could very well be fucked here with junior at the trading turret, Trump going bananas, and stocks reflecting greatness and not a Chinese trade war and all of the trimmings of latter day Empire.

I hedged into the bell.


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Keep the Faith; Stocks are SAFU

Before you wrap yourself with a burlap cloth and toss yourself into a lit fireplace, consider the following.

Trump just freed A$AP Rocky
Trump likes higher stocks
The Fed is now Trump’s bitch
The market cannot stay down for more than a few days

This is the worst week of 2019, which is pathetic — really. This is not even a blip, yet people are panicking the fuck out of their positions. If I was a betting man, and I most certainly am, I’d wager for a sharp heart attack run to the upside next week. But one cannot be sure about these sort of things, so one needs to prepare for all eventualities.

Heading into the balmy August weekend, I am 35-40% cash. I have one overnight trade that needs closing out and my biggest exposure is to gold. I am not immune to the pangs of this sell off, but my losses pale in comparison to yours.

This market feels both sloppy and lazy today. I’d be shocked if we rallied into the close.

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Let the Bond Market Be Your Guide

As long as TLT keeps going higher, stocks will be under pressure. The entire yield curve is fucked now and it’s applying stress onto banks. While we do not need banks rallying for the market to rally, we do need the banking sector to be vibrant and healthy, otherwise capital flows will contract and the economy will fuck itself into a recession.

I’m suggesting that you watch the 10yr yield too, presently at 1.87% for signs of a reversal before you step in large with big dicked buy orders. This being a Friday and all, you’d be hard pressed to find the market rallying with any real verve — and much more likely to panic press into the close.

I’m on a bit of a losing streak here, booking losses and not really complaining about it. It’s all part of the game, this stock business. One minute you’re riding high and pissing out of stretch limos and the next you’re getting ran over by a 1983 Oldsmobile by someone’s grandma.

At the moment, I’m 35% cash, red painted ALL OVER my portfolios — happy as a fucking birds in a house filled with seeds.

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I sold out of my TVIX and SOXS too god damned early. Had I known Trump would ruin and otherwise perfect rally, I would’ve held. But I didn’t. Those are the rules. I don’t make them up. Overnight trades are sold, win or loss, the next day. So I took a 0.5% loss in SOXS and a 5% ding in TVIX. So what both ETFs are sharply the fuck higher now and I would’ve made a fortune. So god damned what! You don’t see me lamenting over it — do you?

Those are the rules and I follow them without complaint.

On the plus side of things, my gold and silver stocks are giving shorts strokes now. The heat is hot because it’s fucking fire. The key tell now is oil, down nearly 8% — complete and utter destruction in the oil space. That shit is getting lit the fuck up. If you’re buying the dip in oil, you might as well hand your money over to a financial advisor and have him lose you money at a slower pace. Seriously, oil is cooked.

On a very interesting note, BOND YIELDS HAVE FUCKING COLLAPSED. Look at TLT. The 10yr is 1.89%, down an astounding 12bps.

Why did all of this happen? Fucking Trump, declaring war on China via Twitter. He even blamed them for our opioid crisis. This is autistic stuff.

My advice:

Raise cash and be patient. I am 40% cash and about 25% precious metals. I will win, sir.

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Lesser Men Sold Gold and Silver Yesterday

I know what you’re thinking.

“Why can’t I be like Le Fly?”

You just can’t, so quit acting like me.

Lesser men sold gold and silver yesterday, during the pangs of the decline. Do you remember how dreadful it looked yesterday and then I said this?

That’s just how I roll, bro.

What did I do today?

Oh, I don’t know. How about reconstruct the only Quant in town, on these internets, worth looking at and also sell out of my losers and book some small losses, in order to make room for some massive wins. How about that?

Doesn’t sounds like much and some might accuse me of making a big deal out of nothing — but fuck off.

I bought a few stocks today, based off the algorithmic greatness of Exodus.

Oh, what does that mean? (I am not insane for interviewing myself with fictitiously dumb questions)

It means momentum based algos leading me towards the promise land. This is what you called high probability hit rates, not so much different from an American bomber laying waste to some Middle East shit hole. This is what I do all day long.

Other than that, not much going on. Just running a world class trading room and data platform, making gazillions. No biggie.

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My Hopes and Dreams Crashed Against Rocks; Stocks Rise

Great, I thought markets were actually going to do something fun — trap door lower — maiming a whole crop of freshly minted traders. Instead, more nothing. I just had a headline up promising collapse with the Dunkirk soundtrack attached. Now I’m the laughing stock on Wall Street — fucking great.

I would say “the day is still young and anything could happen” but you know how this story ends. The fucking market and its big floppy tits are going to bounce all the way back up to record highs, cutting all of the dicks off who tried to fuck it on the way down. This is what the market always does and will continue to do for as long as you live.

Sure, I had some hedges that could’ve been sold for wanton profit, or at least small profit — but now I’ll probably have to sell at losses. That’s what this market is, a gigantic dick cutting device for bears. You cannot be a bear and live to tell the story.

On the agenda today, pick back up on the bull narrative. Get my shit in order. Forget about black smoke and chards of metal bustling throughout your city streets. Re-allocate the Exodus Quant for August and prepare to see prices walked higher.

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ALERT: Markets To Be Destroyed Tomorrow

If you want to know what the market will do tomorrow, listen to this soundtrack for clues.

Dunkirk, all day, wanton surrender in the face of adversity. Tuck tale and flee because the opposition army is too strong and big. Hope to God women with boats come to rescue you to safe harbor and the fucking Americans come to save the day.

A nation of cucks.

Time to get greasy.

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