Q1 is in the Books

Clinical studies have shown that men who cancel Stocklabs are in fact homosexual. I could not believe the data myself — but it’s true.

I closed the quarter of 2024 +13% for trading,+11% in Quant and +10.4% in strategic. Up against the NASDAQ’s gain of +8.5% and the $IWM’s +4.7%, I am pleased with myself — but I do realize I could be doing better.

I haven’t really applied myself in 2024 and will try to do better in Q2. All in all, markets are playing out exactly as they should, with no real big surprises other than a rapid breakout in $BTC and $GLD.

Allocations should be even and full, leaning into growth.

My trading returns the last 12 month indicate an aversion to risk and this is mostly true. I have been trading defensively for a number of reasons — chiefly the tape isn’t inspired. We have seen tera caps go up and the smaller/funner names underperform pretty consistently.

That’s not to discount the interesting movement in AI related stocks, especially $NVDA. Nonetheless, I feel like there is a dark cloud looming just above us and at any moment it’ll strike us all dead.

If I stopped being scared and only allocated long and increased the sizes of my positions, I’d likely be up 27% like some of the criminals inside the Pelican Room. However, I am a professional of the first order and like to comport myself with honor and dignity at all times.

Have a blessed extended weekend. See you catamites on Monday.

It’s an interesting proposition. All of those days till Monday and people sloshing around with their money and nothing to do. Why not buy a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin? It’s easy to do and it goes up often.

I am long $BTC-$SOL and will keep those positions intact until I foresee a crescendo top — a waterfall of cantankerous propositions coming down on the proletariat to steal all of their coins. Unlike yours, my coins can never be stolen.

As for markets, I opened up down 60bps, so I closed the screen and didn’t bother to think about the market until after 11am and then found myself, much to my delight, +40bps. I have since sold everything, bought some $BITX and $SQQQ for the afternoon drift.

I have been trading defensively for weeks now, as I am risk averse and do not like to lose money. My gains are approaching 5% for the month, +14% for the year. My quant, which is allocated monthly, is +11% YTD and my best ideas long term strategy is +10.7%.

Sirs — I am a professional, never tricked or fooled, always on a prowl in search of meat — hunting till dusk by chasing about the weak.

More later.

The inverse of yesterday, naturally. We tanked into the bell yesterday and today enjoyed the mirror image. As such, I managed to scratch and claw myself back into the green — literally akin to pushing a handicapped wheelchair up a steep cliff — only to perhaps tomorrow speed downhill directly into an dynamite depot where I will explode.

I fished out one of the most depraved portfolios YTD, affixed with a beta of 2 now, slightly leveraged, long all sort of craven degenerate stocks. I will either rejoice and revel in my own ignorance tomorrow or pay a very severe price for my sins of wanton greed and lust for material earthly items.

In other news, I am busy studying to get licensed again — off to manage other people’s money again for both sport and pleasure. I have been out for 7 years and miss it — bedraggled with a feeling of being UNDERUTILIZED amidst a cadre of unsophisticated and dwellers. It might entirely be plausible that this blog ceases to exist within the year. Nothing is written in stone — but I am giving you all fair warning, as I have grown bored and want to embark on a new task.

Good afternoon —

Markets are doing just fine, with exception to some big tech plays. I’ve been trading well this afternoon, after digging myself into an early crevasse — now down by just 20bps. I am tempted to go to cash — but since I am hedged with some $SQQQ — it may not be necessary.

Some broad stroke themes that are worthwhile in the coming months:

Semis, Cryptos, Gold, Dissident Right media, undervalued EV

The semis are easily the go to place for traders, based off crypto mining and AI development. Gold is at record highs and crypto is the best dollar alternative for the younger generation, and also a conduit for growth. The dissident right media can be best enjoyed via $DJT and $RUM — but really just Rumble. Lastly, electric vehicle stocks, one hot, aren’t hot anymore. I like $TSLA and $RIVN. Many will fail but I believe those two can make it.

There are some wild eyed ideas to consider too, such as Flying Taxis: $ACHR, $JOBY and the companied tasked with mapping the sky like GPS maps the ground. Thus far, the only publicly traded company that I know doing this is $NN.

I was having a rather genteel day, enjoying easy returns of +100bps when markets decided to drop. It went slowly and kept that pace into the bell, with very little respite. If you were buying the dips on the way lower you were dominated by sellers into the close and now feel very bad about yourself, having squandered a gift horse in the face.

DO NOT CONCERN YOURSELVES with the likes of me, as I am never tricked or fooled. As markets collapsed, I caught myself and hedged and kept trading and fighting into the close.

I capped off the session +46bps in highly professional, highly astute trading. It’s very good that I spend my time and my talents all day with people trading $8k at $HOOD. This is exactly how I intended my life to play out.

Into tomorrow, I am 18% short, 45% cash, with a negative beta.

Ciao.

I want you to examine the monthly returns for the $QQQ since 1999.

You see that there are just two months out of the year when stocks trade lower.

The NASDAQ went down just two times since 2008.

If you chose to invest in any day during the week, only Friday would be a bad time.

My point is — markets are RIGGED to go higher. The times it drops — it’s fairly predictable and if you’re paying close attention — you can avoid the bulk of the drawdown. This doesn’t have to be complicated. If you’re only focused on shorting the market, you are trading too emotionally. The numbers do not lie and the only way a person could’ve lost money in the tape since 2009 is if her was in stocks non-central to the greater economic schemes of the world. In other words, own companies that correlate to the economy and not outliers in the tech and biotech realm.

The question of “when to sell?” is an evergreen one, something myself have wrestled with intensely during my entire career. Since I trade a lot and am always fishing for new ideas — I often sell stocks that later run up to be great winners. I justify my actions by pointing to my returns being great and the idea that stocks are mere vehicles to an ultimate destination. You do not need to be fixed to one. HOWEVER, not everyone can trade as good as me or have the time necessary to keep in tune with trends. For those people I suggest a quarterly review and stringent dedication to allocation weightings.

I’ve said this many times before and I will repeat it now.

If you start a position in XYZ at 5% and it jumps to 9%, at your quarterly adjustment — pare it back down to 5% and if you have a down stock at 3%, increase it to 5%. We are assuming the long term fundamentals are still intact for the loser and nothing material has changed. If the loser missed earnings and lowered guidance and is counter-correlating its peer group — SELL IT and replace it with a company performing well.

Shares of $DWAC merged into $DJT and is up more than 40% today, making Trump more than $600m today alone. At 58% ownership, Trump’s net worth teeters on $7b.

I won’t be chasing DJT any time soon and if you search the archives of this site, you will find me to be infuriated with Trump the last time he brought his casino public only to soon flop out later completely bankrupted. For my speculative fervor, I must prefer shares of $RUM, which is a real business powered by the dissident right, who is largely disenfranchised in American main stream media today.

Early going I’m up 43bps, mostly cash now.

AI is just another iteration of Web 2.0. We will continue, as a species, to develop technologies that increases productivity, proving the genetic resources remain viable. If you’re attempting to play AI via software applications, you’re barking up the wrong tree. Think of it like the internet and the apps are simply websites. It’s far too early to see which apps will win, since nearly all companies are deploying AI technology into their workflow.

Instead, focus on the infrastructure which makes it all possible. The obvious play is $NVDA with 75% share of the AI chip market. But there are other, not so obvious plays.

Chip design: $CDNS, $SNPS
Database/Server: $AMZN, $SMCI, $ALAB, $MSFT, $MDB, $ORCL
Foundries: Samsung, $TSM, $AMKR
Database chips: $AMD
Services: $ACN
Chips: $NVDA, $MU, $ARM, $QCOM, $INTC
Security: $PLTR

And then there is the wide pastiche of smaller plays that can pop 10x or collapse by 100%. But if you’re wanting an allocation into AI now, I would advise legging in over the next 12 months with quarterly allocations in order to avoid poor timing, considering the recent run.

It’s akin to a gold rush and where the money is most frequently made is via the vendors of picks and shovels, rather than the prospectors.

Today’s runners include: $ALAB, $CDLX, $CENX,$CIFR, $CLSK, $MSTR, $COIN, $DWAC, $GME, $MU, $RDDT, $SMCI, $EGY

Notice any trends? If not, you’re retarded. Mostly, today is about $BTC soaring mixed in with some big risk on plays, chiefly amongst AI and meme stocks. The overall health of the tape is mid — nothing to get excited about. I remain hedged with a 22% position in $TZA and I am about flat for the session. The one day I did not buy $BITX and it soars to the fucking moon. That’s the market. Sometimes you get lucky and other times you’re cursed.

Into the close, I could see the tape unraveling, since we’re held together by retarded stocks at the moment.

One thing is indelibly clear, whether you’re long or short the market, the overall trend of purchasing power for fiat currencies, specifically dollars, is straight down. We had a brief respite only in 2008-2009, as we descended into a deflationary vortex. But other than that, holding dollars in your account was a detriment to you almost every single day of your lives.

I hear people talk about “King Dollar” often, boastful about how much better our piece of shit currency is versus the next one but at the end of the day — fiat currencies are designed to go lower. Central banks print more and do as they like with it and does not care if the purchasing power of said currencies collapses over time. If you live in America or Europe you are lucky there is a cabal protecting the currencies against the rest of the world’s, otherwise you’d see a Turkey styled rout and subsequent deterioration of public trust in the currency.

You look at $GLD and $BTC now and see they’re both at record highs. Gold is of course the old school hedge against the dollar and $BTC is a newer waive digital currency that can and will be used for purchases — widely adopted by people all over the world. The transfer of fiat to $GLD/$BTC is why they’re at record highs and I’d like to know why anyone should think this dynamic of depreciating fiat/higher $GLD, $BTC will change any time soon?

It’s also worth nothing that stocks is also a great hedge against your dollars losing value, which is the express goal of the FOMC: getting you to sell dollars for stocks to support this fucking house of cards economic system we have today, cobbled together with spit and masking tape.