18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,219 Blog Posts

Jobs Report Better Than Expected; Recession Hawks BTFO

The last vestiges of hope and promise that everything will soon be destroyed have been crashed against the rocks this morning. The March payrolls data, the jobs report, came in better than expected.

March Nonfarm Payrolls 196K vs 170K
March Unemployment Rate 3.8% vs 3.8%
March Average Hourly Earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.2%

As a result, futures doubled their gains and everyone is merrily pleased with their portfolios. Any questions? Are you still too stupid to understand what happened in October-December was yet another rouse in a long rich history of rouses — an attempt to fleece Joe Public from his shares?

Markets don’t dip on Fridays. Enjoy the trading session.

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The Time Machine is Operational Again

I have to keep this short — not because I’m disinterested in reaching out, shilling for my premium service, or because I have few things to say. Quite the contrary — as I’m fully capable of doing all of that indefinitely. But I have a job at home now — chauffeur — ferrying people to and fro — patiently waiting for their shopping experiences to be completed and enjoyed. Cucked the fuck out and beat the fuck down.

The hostile heat endured from Oct-Dec of 2018 tested the Exodus algorithms and now we have all of that beautiful data to cross reference against. This is important because it was the very worst technical environment for stocks since 2008. That is not my opinion — but a fact that was measured by my algorithms.

So what do we have now?

My 3 month algorithm is a fucking printing press. I told you this would happen and now it’s here. Soon, the 3 mo algo will move to the 6, then 12, and finally 36. Just know, we registered OS last week and have gone straight up since then — nailed to the exact fucking day.

Now go fuck yourselves and drown in your bullshit wine and charts. “The Fly” has work to do, people to ferry, liberties to be pardoned.

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It Doesn’t Matter What You Think — Stocks Are Going Higher

I spent the majority of my day in a forlorn state as an errand boy — ferrying dogs to and fro the barber — grocery shopping, ferrying in laws from train station to my house, ferrying others to and fro. Meanwhile, stocks threatened to trade down. The best amongst them were off — led lower by SAAS stocks. At the session lows, software stocks were down by more than 4.5%. They ended down just 3.4%.

It was a bad day, by most measures. Sixty percent of stocks traded up and 40% of you are sad right now — but do not fear the market. It is your friend. Be loyal to it and it will grant you great fortunes. Betray it, and it will ruin you and your family for generations.

I don’t care what any of you think — meaningless refuse drifting endlessly in a sea of morons.

Good day.

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Get Ready For 0.999% Interest Rates: Trump Wants Herman Cain on the Fed Board

First Trump wanted this retard on the Fed board.

Now he wants Mr. 999 Godfather Pizza guy.

Fed haters will soon enjoy a frisson of excitement over these ridiculous appointees, since it undermines the very institution Trump is attempting to destroy. There isn’t any logical explanation for a pizza businessman to be placed on the Fed, other than to lob in some fucking hand grenades and show those fuckers who’s boss.

Now some of you motherfuckers seem to think Le Fly is changeable and will soon buy TVIX or TZA — accompanied by a nice little funny picture and be on my merry way towards losses. Fuck you — because I won’t do that and have instead resigned myself to losses — seeing it through — the whole kit and caboodle. Sure, I’ll adhere to stops and make sure things don’t get out of hand — but I’m tired of the whipsaw and I grow bored of being hoodwinked into believing a great fuckery is upon us, when in fact the only fuckery is the stuff that circulates inside of my head — courtesy of two decades of enduring one market calamity after the next.

Yet, after all that — here we are within a corn hole toss of new highs.

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SAAS Stocks Hammered — Broader Indices Masking Weakness

SAAS stocks are off by more than 2.5% now — with outsized losses in ZS, AYX, TWLO, and OKTA. Normally, not a big deal; however, the broader indices are masking this pain and people might easily get lured into trades amidst hair razing declines.

My Bubble Basket is down 1.2% and bonds are strong.

It appears, and pardon me for saying this — we might trade lower today. I know — it hurts and it’s never fun — but it’s gonna happen.

Typically I’d dive headlong into a sundry of inverse ETFs and end up donating that money to the underprivileged children of Direxion — but today I’m opting against that strategem in favor of sandwiches. Maybe I’ll raise some more cash too. But what I won’t do — is buy TVIX or TZA.

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Three relevant items this morning.

Tesla bears are feeling their oats this morning — thanks to a slowdown in business. Shares are now spiraling lower — off by 10.5%. I haven’t seen a stock this hated since Lehman.

Tesla says it delivered 50,900 Model 3 cars in the first quarter, below the 52,450 analysts expected in a consensus estimate from FactSet.

Overall deliveries also fell short.

“Volume expectations for the company’s products in 2019 are too high with consumer demand likely lower as subsidies phase out in the US,” Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino says.

“Tesla’s 1Q19 vehicle production & deliveries report was substantially worse than expected,” J.P. Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman says.

The good folks at Lehman are raising the minimum wage to $13 per hour. Mind you, large corporations do not raise wages out of the kindness of their black hearts. We’re at full employment as a nation and they need to entice new plebs to grease the wheels of their evil machines.

Target said Thursday it is increasing its minimum hourly wage by a dollar to $13 in June for all current and new employees as part of its goal to hit $15 an hour by the end of 2020

Applications for unemployment benefits sunk to a 49 year low.

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a more than 49-year low last week.

The data pointed to sustained labor market strength despite slowing economic growth.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to 202,000 for the week ended March 30, the lowest level since early December 1969, the Labor Department said.

All of this points to one thing: wage growth. With wage growth, perhaps we can finally get a bump in inflation — something the dovish Fed is probably shitting their pantaloons over.

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You’re Not Smarter Than Everyone Else — Fall Back in Line

I am going to show you a chart that is the truth. You might believe it to be the opposite of the truth — because it’s unconventional — but I’ll explain it in a moment.

Back in December — now with the benefit of hindsight, Xmas marked the bottom. Had you bought there and held — you made a fortune — but you were also a moron for doing so. It was a shot in the dark, a lucky gamble that paid off — no different from a spin on the one arm bandit. The correct, or higher probability trade was on January 4th, when stocks broke the downward patterns and oil spiraled higher. The black candles ceased to scare investors away and dips were bought with alacrity and vigor.

The same logic applies to today. If you sold, or bought TVIX or TZA, you’re a moron — and that’s fine if your family has a rich and long history of producing morons. You can’t help yourself — no different from a reprobate unable to appreciate the finer things in life — such as pear tarts with a dash of blood orange mascarpone stipple, mind you, on top.

This is where you relax and wait, wait for coked out hedge funders to make a final push towards alpha before heading out to St. Bart’s to waste their summers away. There is not a chance, not even a little bit, for a reversal to the downside before Easter.


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Raising Cash (dot dot dot) — JUST IN CASE

Who am I to fight against market forces? Small caps are still 9% off their highs and the market is running tired today — looking weak and flaccid and also weak.

I’ve got about 20% cash and I do not care to sell anything more than this — mainly because I have an emotional attachment to the idea that stocks will and can push forward to new record highs.

I’m probably making a mountain out from a mole hill. Nevertheless, I sold AYX (+6.3%), RPD (+5.3%) and JPM (+3.9%) for fast paced gains, both earned and enjoyed over a one week’s holding period. I will now sit back and wait.

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