Boring morning, except for crude plodding along the bottom of its recent range.
Truth is, while markets are strong and biased to trade higher, if crude breaks lower again — the rally will dissipate and it won’t be long until people start worrying about the fucking junk bond market again.
I have a few things to sell this morning — underperforming assets. I’ll likely move them to cash and wait for resolution.
If this is 2011 and not 2008, then we’re on track to reach the highs of October by April of 2019.
It’s pointless to make predictions about the fundies. All I can point to is divergence between oil and junk bonds, with the former dropping and HYG not giving a fuck — moving higher with stocks. Bullish. And then you have the effervescent feeling of brightness creeping back into the narrative. It felt gloomy last month and I don’t feel that way anymore — and I’m a very doomful person.
How we get there.
+7.5% over the next two months. It won’t happen gradually, but all of a sudden. We’re likely to consolidate until Apple gives us the nod for Q2. Then and only then will we breach the former highs. In the after-hours, one of my favorite SAAS stocks, ZEN, crushed and even SNAP is enjoying the bull market.
I sold AMRS for a 26% DAY TRADE — you fucking ingrates. When was the last time you did anything like that? I have a bunch of irons in the fire — stocks readying to jimmy higher. You can bet against stocks if you want; and you can also kill yourselves too.
But why do it?
There are so many better ways to lose money or die. You can spend the money buying nice homes and then turning those homes into fucking junkyards, much to the chagrin of your neighbors. Instead of killing yourself, why not become RAMBO — travel to a war zone of choice and pursue your dream to save the world from tyranny in your homemade Captain America suit?
The gains, at this point, are perverse. We’re simply running the path of least resistance. Look for another 2% up and then grind.
Top picks: ESTC, REZI, YEXT, TLRY.
I have more — but you’ll need to join the league gentlemen inside Exodus to find out.
We’re all guilty of recency bias, the idea that present conditions are all that matters and the things that happened in the past are simply antiquated and unimportant. That’s not true of course — and as stocks move into areas of congestion — levels where traders went long and lost a short while ago — you’ll start to see the gains grind to a halt, flag, and then fail.
Here are the levels I am looking at, marked by where fuckers went long and wrong.
That are encircled is the “FagBox” from which we traded in a few months ago. People who went long at that time are only now realizing their cost basis and will move to cash, elated to have their money back. From $170 to $175, I suspect markets will begin to grind. It’s also possible we fail at this $170 levels and head back lower to $165 or even $160. I’m open to the possibilities.
A decisive move above $175 would make me extremely bullish; but at the stage in the rally, I’d wager my peas and carrots it won’t happen — at least not yet. We’ll need months of grind and fake outs before earning that level. Plus I’m pretty sure investors want to see how Q2 is shaping up before making some large directional trades.
AMRS is the CBD play of the day. The stock is up sharply on this news.
Amyris, Inc. (Nasdaq:AMRS), a leader in the development and production of sustainable ingredients for the Health & Wellness, Clean Beauty and Flavors & Fragrances markets, today announced that it has signed a binding term sheet for a planned cannabinoid development, licensing and commercialization partnership valued at up to $255 million (not including significant royalties once the products are commercialized) with a confidential partner. The $255 million in payments include an upfront payment and the remainder are linked to milestones that are expected over the next 12-36 months following the signing of a definitive final agreement. Amyris has a successful track record of leveraging its unique technology platform to scale No Compromise™ sustainable products and successfully bring them to commercialization. In addition to lab-based milestone payments, this agreement also provides for significant milestone payments for commercially scaling each product.
I don’t give a shit, either way. I feel, in a sense, invincible, so I bought some.
Earlier in the session, I sold the following.
Also, I bought REZI — because three white candles.
My sense, I kind of want to sell more — but I’m also torn between liking the vibe to this tape. I can feel the short’s getting squeezed and I want to help annihilate them. I have several stocks up sharply from my basis and will be selling those first. My goal is to be more than 50% cash by the time the QQQs get to $173.
Complacency is washing over Wall Street now. You can feel the indifference in the air, the subtle arrogance that is born in bull runs. It’s important to remember the reasons for the initial decline and book easy profits when afforded the chance.
By March, the market will be looking for Q2 guidance out of Apple. That gives you less than a month before another possible Apple warning. If we get such a warning, the market will retest the lows, AND MORE.
This is the headline on CNBC today.
My target for the Qs is $175. I think we can realize something close to that by next week. There will be a jarring day or two, shaking people out, and then the final sprint towards $175 — and then nothing. After a 10% rally in January, it is not likely we will rally too much more in February, or in March. It’s possible, but not likely.
Personally, I have so many stocks to manage, it’s almost burdensome. Being fully invested is a hardship — because it means that I have to watch and analyze almost 20 individual stocks. I’ll probably begin selling today — leaving the proceeds in cash — happy to have made some easy money after a large bounce off the fucking bottom.
The felicity you feel now will soon sour and turn into a blinding apathy, filled with regrets and feelings of yearning to repeat the past. The vast majority of you are incapable of effecting positive growth in your trading accounts and are best suited for long term capital growth. But now that you’ve enjoyed a modicum of success and feel noteworthy, bragging to your wives about your stupid gains, I am obligated to remind you to take profits and feel solace in knowing you grabbed the fat middle.
Only Space Alien Magicians (SAM) like Le Fly are capable of pushing the envelope and seizing returns that shouldn’t belong to me. Out of nowhere, I appears, ax in hand, chopping heads and dicks off.
During my lifetime, I’ve come across just a handful of truly great traders — but even those moronic apes were only able to see things one way and would soon get abolished from the field of play once the market had turned lower and melded their trophies into an albatross from which to drown with.
At times, “The Fly” appears to be rudderless and ineffective. But I am probing, with my alien vessel — searching for a rhythm. Once zoned in, as I am now, absolutely no one is better than me. I crush both long and short waves and ride them until they dissipate.
Let this late night blog post serve as a reminder to those out there — especially the young punks who’ve only recently discovered these hallowed grounds — “The Fly” is a primordial force of both vengeance and empathetic kindness whose life mission is to grace the internets with generous comportment and thru cheap vaudeville type antics — a never ending array of unkempt enemies — relegated to fagboxes, and such, elevated to new bright heights atop cascading mountains of victories that will one day be reflected on as the very best trader and commentator to seize upon finance — encroaching on 20,000 blog posts, unmatched by anyone ever — in the history of online financial publications.
Bored. Site was down for an hour and I wished it never came back up. Nowadays I spend my time babysitting novices and hope to God they don’t blow themselves to smithereens. Le Fly is an extremely emphatic person, in spite of his hardened and robust exterior. I worry about some of you — always attempting to get rich quickly, without going through the rigors of time, and with it, experience.
We have upside left in the QQQs. I’m still looking for $175.
I have magnanimous gains now, sitting atop of a small fortune. Just last week, members of Exodus, my private and premium service, poked fun and laughed at my recent trading mishaps; now they’re all shining my shoes. Everywhere I go there are enemies. Even at home, there are elements within House Fly attempting to subvert me at every turn. It should be noted, and also taken as advice for young and eager family men, to never take, nor accept, tumultuous conversation as something you should even remotely consider. Best to simply chalk it up to a genetic malady and go about your day. Every so often, you might get tangled in their web of anger; but you’d be wise to quickly extricate yourselves from it with a buoyant exit and to stay fixed on work.
When life becomes glum and also grim, you’re best served to be industrious and set aside the distractions for a later date.
Some of my pot stocks have given back their gains, but I’m in no rush to sell anything now. I’ve made it a point to see this thru and I shall stick to my word, as my bond, in order to realize a greater glory in the future. “The Fly’s” dominion shall stretch wide and thick, smothering all other stock jockeys with vicious slaps to the face.
This is a fever that is not supported by fundamentals. Let’s be clear about that. The sector, as compiled in Exodus, is up 50% over the past month. To that end, I am pushing the envelope and generally do not fear pull backs. I am rigid in that regard and do not take advice from anyone. I’ve found that my own voice is the most clear and trustworthy voice in the world, to me. All other people around me are, generally speaking, untrustworthy and have proven as such over a rich and long history of being wrong.
You too might find advice being liberally doled out to you by people who dislike you or from those who love to talk and not do. Le Fly, by all measures, is a serial outperformer. Because of this genetic trait, I find stocks that carry my spirit animal.
Presently, I am long JVA, WTER, SONO, TLRY, ZYNE, YEXT, ESTC, DTEA, SPOT, SQ — just to name a few. I am all in, and have been so since last week.
Earlier today I swapped my INCY for CBLK. And now I just bought YGYI — another small cap cannabis play. In light of the pin action in today’s pot stocks, I like my chances for a fucking gorilla roll higher.
I’m long SONO and like that’s it’s up today. But let’s be honest here. JP Morgan doesn’t know what the fuck they’re talking about. Apple isn’t buying shit. They will never spend their money to buy another company. They have so much money — they can do that shit themselves.
JPMorgan wrote that the category of smart home speakers were among the industries with “the most strategic value,” for Apple, “providing potential growth opportunities to leverage services over a wider installed base.”
Apple is “currently lagging competitors in the smart home category,” JPMorgan wrote, referring to the company’s HomePod product line. Sonos, in contrast, has a “differentiated position as a premium home speaker system relative to Amazon Alexa and Google Home,” along with “strong loyalty among current customers and [a] robust international presence.”
Do you sell on this news? Perhaps. I’m not, mainly because I’m complacent.