RISK IS OFF

Dear Sirs —

I am obligated to inform you that I do believe markets are at the precipice of sheer and utter collapse. However, I will preface that bold statement with a disclosure: I am almost always thinking markets will collapse and find myself often disappointed by the specter of it all “working out in the end” so very often.

I closed near my session lows of -2.2%, mostly due to a very large $UVIX position gone sideways (actually fucking lower) on me late in the day. I did not sell it because I am obligated to have shorts into tomorrow. Whether I make to lose money is immaterial. Some things are more important than money, such as being involved at the very beginning of what could end up being THE TOP for 2024.

Bear in mind, the dollar index ran higher today with oil and all of the banks and interest rate sensitive companies fell through the fucking floorboards. Look, it’s all very mundane stuff and I am sorry you just don’t get it. The point is we are at a crossroads from which true disaster might materialize, especially if the regionals start to tank and all of the companies who depend on refinancing their credit to remain in business. Let’s not even delve into ‘cash sorting’ and the housing market just yet. Today was merely the opening salvo of what might turn into an orchestral masterpiece of gloom, regret, and cataclysm.

I am happy to have lost some coin today, as it gives me the proper motivation to get it all back. I am heavily long oils, short bonds, short small caps, and long volatility into tomorrow.

See you catamites tomorrow.