Getting Food Stupid for Thanksgiving
Shares of Origin Agritech Ltd. [[SEED]] exemplified the recent run in ag names today: stupid. It’s all the same story: massive reallocation of capital from dollars into commodities. The scary thing is, if the dollar should ever surprise everyone and boot stomp higher, the entire commodity space will get obliterated, starting with the bow tie of Jim Rogers, cascading down to “The Commodity King,” Dennis Gartman.
I am long The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , as a long term hold and have no intention of selling at the moment. However, let’s face facts, ag isn’t running because of population growth in China. It is running because of excess liquidity, which is the exact same reason why real estate became a bubble in 2006. Frankly, our great nation is heading for another calamity. This time it will afflict and milk the farmers, sending those stupid bastards to the poorhouse for good.
I have no estimate on this prophecy, only that it will happen, as sure as I am sitting here laughing at you clowns for having such poor taste in business attire.
Keep in mind, most of the following stocks are in melt up mode and will likely trade higher over the short term. All I am suggesting, via dire warnings of calamity, is to avoid FTKing yourself with high prints. If you were curious about how to play ag, here is your guideline.
Ag Chemicals
Syngenta AG (ADR) [[SYT]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Intrepid Potash, Inc. [[IPI]] , Terra Industries Inc. [[TRA]] , Monsanto Company [[MON]] , Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] , CF Industries Holdings, Inc. [[CF]] , The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company [[SMG]] , [[COIN]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. [[TNH]] and Compass Minerals International, Inc. [[CMP]] .
Farm Construction and Machinery
[[ARTW]] , Bucyrus International, Inc. [[BUCY]] , Deere & Company [[DE]] , Astec Industries, Inc. [[ASTE]] , CNH Global N.V. (ADR) [[CNH]] , Lindsay Corporation [[LNN]] , Valmont Industries, Inc. [[VMI]] , Manitowoc Company, Inc. [[MTW]] , Joy Global Inc. [[JOYG]] , Caterpillar Inc. [[CAT]] , Columbus McKinnon Corp. [[CMCO]] and Terex Corporation [[TEX]]
Miscellaneous
Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , [[YONG]] , Origin Agritech Ltd. [[SEED]] , AgFeed Industries, Inc. [[FEED]] , Agria Corporation (ADR) [[GRO]] , [[CAGC]] , Archer Daniels Midland Company [[ADM]] , Bunge Limited [[BG]] , Innophos Holdings, Inc. [[IPHS]] , Tractor Supply Company [[TSCO]] , Titan Machinery Inc. [[TITN]] , Cadiz Inc. [[CDZI]] , [[CRESY]] , Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. [[CALM]] , ZHONGPIN INC. [[HOGS]], E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company [[DD]] , Landec Corporation [[LNDC]], [[NOEC]] Imperial Sugar Company [[IPSU]] , Cosan Limited [[CZZ]] and Raven Industries, Inc. [[RAVN]] (precision farming!)
Great list, but what about MOO, mon?
moo is an etf.
mon is there
Can also add etf COW.TO for the Canucks
So…….Fly
If I’m reading your last two tomes correctly, where you say a crash is going to happen in precious metals and in ag commodities, the reciprocal would be that you think the US greenback is going to rebound. Correct or am I dazed and confused as usual?
BTW the dairy section of ag has been taking a gigantic whipping for the last 10-11 months. Talking with a Greenstone farm credit agent the other day and he said their internal figures show that the average dairy is losing $1,000 per animal per year. Those are some pretty big shekels to an operator with 1500+ head running around. Heard through the grapevine of a couple who had committed suicide out in California where despite the egregiously stupid ad, the cows are not happy.
Dairy is likely seeing a structural shift. Input price inflation together with shrinking consumption is a bad combination. Kids are drinking Fruitopia instead.
At some point, the dollar will be supported, at that time Peter Schiff will wish he had never been born.
The more I think about this reallocation of capital , the more uncomfortable I am with it. Obviously, this would mean a wholesale decline in equities as well, which is what I am thinking might happen in 2010.
Totally agree
Sold some puts on CGA today just because.
We be DOOMED: ( they will try to steer you away from this site)
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=16218
LOL. Now you have your explanation for our investment in military assets.
Oddly ironic, no?
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I say lay down the arms and go quietly. Why die broke?
You forgot Jacksonian refuge ANDE, which is muscling back.
And JOYG is a mining machinery manufacturer. Ex-client.
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joyg is there. I left ande out, but worth a look. take a look at RAVN. interesting story.
Yeah, I meant JOYG should NOT be there… they don’t do much ag bidness, if I recall correctly.
They tear up farms to strip mine them, mebbe?
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Maybe. I didn’t fine tooth comb it.
ANDE should be there, so I will add it.
Grazie. They are always throwing JOYG in there with DE, which causes confusion.
Better comps– BUCY and CAT.
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What about tractor tires/wheels with TWI …
and some crop coverage via DAG ?
The crb index is still well off its 2008 highs and so far this year has underperformed the major indexes
how is the excess liquidity in ag any different than the excess liquidity in the rest of the market?
At least people can eat ag
I am not calling a top here. Actually, I believe commodity stocks can go much higher. All I am suggesting, the premise behind the reallocation will be highly disruptive to equity markets when it unravels.
Two certainties in life:
1. Everyone lies.
2. Everything unravels.
Agreed especially with the last two points. Probably the best comment that you have ever made
Are we Milking The Farmer Again? Sounds good to me!
I had something else milked today.
Prognosis: deteriorating…
COIN!!!! I have COIN in my IRA. I bought it a year ago at $7 or something and now its under a buck. Its one of those forgotten stocks in my portfolio but now that the Fly has recommended it. perhaps I should quintuple down! I remember another waste recycler DAR that had an incredible run. COIN does match the name of this blog–IBANKCOIN! I will be thrilled if COIN can make a run back to double digits from here. If we can turn used cooking oil into biodiesel, lets turn kitchen scraps into fertilizer….There is a god! FIG!
RTK is an ag chemical company. Most think of it as a alt energy play. It’s more like a profitable agchem company with alternative energy aspirations.
“the entire commodity space will get obliterated”
“This time it will afflict and milk the farmers, sending those stupid bastards to the poorhouse for good.”
What’ your timeframe?
So you’re betting against a billionaire, are you. Good luck with that.
However, let’s face facts, ag isn’t running because of population growth in China. It is running because of excess liquidity, which is the exact same reason why real estate became a bubble in 2006.
What’s the stock market running on?
Suspense continues…
PEET ups offer for DDRX after GMCR outbids them. GMCR matches bid.
DDRX valuable player for either company. The loser will definitely lose out on future growth.
ZOILA -OUT!
OVTI looking strong today
Sure would love to see some burnt toast calling for a late day rally!
http://rlv.zcache.com/i_love_burnt_toast_tshirt-p235363468877167823trlf_400.jpg
I just had a great run up but buying me now is pointless.
Get me in a few days at the 100 day at around 51$
…Paging Dr. Fly to Woodshedder’s office…
Where’s our leader?
I’m out now and planning to get back in the S&P for Wednesday and Friday.
Anyone…Good idea…Bad idea?
May be a good idea
The markets tend to be in a good mood the week before holidays, since 1950, the S&P 500 is 40-19, up 67.85 of the time during the four day week (including Friday) of Thanksgiving for an average gain of 0.78%
On average, all of those gains come on the two days surrounding Thanksgiving, which are 51-8, up 86.44% for an average gain of 0.80%.
What are the banks doing with the our money the so called TARP money? The same thing they did that caused this crisis.
With large bets on bonds, commodities and exotic financial products, big banks are reporting third-quarter profits. They are able to make these bets because they know the government won’t let them fail on bets gone bad. This is outrageous. The CDS market is trading once again in the shadows and the backing of tax payers money to make counter parties whole is inflating the value of these bullshit instruments. Making the billionaires richer and richer. Inflating the next bubble. While the sheeple sit and follow their so called leaders.
Weren’t the objectives for the Troubled Asset Relief Program were greater lending to consumers and businesses, mitigating foreclosures and helping banks shed toxic mortgage-backed assets.
Do you feel hoodwinked and lied to? You should
Moe:
Stop talking as though you know what banks do with risk as you don’t. You have no idea.
Bullshit j: anyone with half a brain can figure that one out. Most of their profits came from trading, AIG especially, trading what they call financial products. I guess you are to stupid to think for your self since you are obviously drinking the kool aid that they are pissing all over you.
AIG is not a bank, Moe. AIG is not trading any longer other than to close down it’s books.
You are talking about what the banks are doing with the TARP which is in the present tense. My response is that they don’t make most of their money from trading like you’re suggesting. Stop it with the bullshit.
You got the direction wrong past March and have been pissed since then. You will continue to make wrong directional macro moves if you continue thinking there’s a conspiracy behind every door.
well, No shit about AIG. They still received TARP money and they are trading their so called financial products read about the their 3 quarter earnings info and get back to me. read the other banks 3rd quarters too. If you think the banks did not make money trading with TARP money and continue to do so, then you sir live in Lala land.
Yers I have been wrong about the market direction since March and I have admitted it, taken my lumps in stride. There’s no conspiracy, its fact, truths, that idiots like you fail to see. The bubble is being reinflated and long term if this continues the whole system will be fucked. Out of control spending and record infusions of money will only make the problem worse. The borrow and spend policies can’t be carried on forever
Reading Comprehension you idiot, your intial claim was that most of the profits of the financial institutions who took TARP came from trading. J merely responded by pointing out that most of the profits (and we should really be talking about revenue here not profit, an indication of your lack of understanding of business in general and in this case accounting) do not come from trading. I think that if you do indeed look at the TARP receiving institiutions in general, less than 50% of their revenue does indeed come from trading, using the common defiinition since you never bothered to define it, thus making J Right and you Wrong.