You’re Not Really Winning

One of my vices is seeing the worst in people. Some of you southern rednecks offer pecan pies to your neighbors; I scowl at them. I know a lot of traders and investors. Most of them suck. I am not taking a high road approach here, believe you me. I’ve had plenty of off days and as a result lost millions in the process. What I am talking about is a psychological defect that makes a person trade like an ignoramus.

I am up 22% in my ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] position inside of one week. What have you done lately?

See pal, it’s not about the quantity of the trades, but quality.

Noble men of the internet, do not give into the flashy advertisements of the online discount houses, encouraging you to excessively trade your piker accounts into oblivion. Think before you act and walk with purpose. Who likes to hang out with people who can’t speak clearly? I hear you mumbling; but I have no idea what the hell you are saying.

Add luster to your reputation, by way of monster wins. Legends are born through epic wins, not a series of practical jokes.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] reports after the bell and they will destroy earnings estimates. However, will that make the stock trade higher or sell off on news? If you had a game plan and proper asset allocation strategy that would not matter to you. My point is this, very simply: the market is not the gamble that the idiot poker experts tell you it is. Certain companies do well because of innovation and good management. Being able to identify trends and consumer behavior will punch the teeth out of any technician, any day, any time.

The dollar traded up today, yet the market went up too. My best guess is that we are close to the top of the trading range, for the near term. I am not talking about “The Summit,” which will lead to a mind numbing collapse. All I am looking for is a 3% sell-off, so that I can go “all-in” for the ultimate move up to 10,500, where I will tell my detractors to stick it where the sun doesn’t shine, or does; it makes no difference to me.

I have friends in the mortgage business with loans coming out of their ears. Anyone with a Fico score of 620 and better is qualifying for sub 6% loans, providing they monkey up to the table with 20% down. Case in point: have a gander at Toll Brothers, Inc. [[TOL]] today.

Ladies and Gentleman of the internet, do yourself a favor and buy a house.

Don’t believe me?

Take a look at the Case-Shiller Metro Housing shares up [[UMM]] :

This ETF tracks the actual value of homes in NY, Boston, Dallas, Tampa, Miami, LA, Phoenix, etc. Basically, it tracks the value of homes in big cities aka “the only place that counts.”

Now ask yourself, punk: are ya’ feelin’ lucky?

Do not misconstrue my 60% cash position for bearishness. I told you once and I will say it again: this is a LONG ONLY market. Failure to adhere to these laws of reason will result in me buying your house in foreclose.

Don’t get me wrong, with the positions that I still hold, mainly foreign stocks, I am doing quite well. CGG Veritas (ADR) [[CGV]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] , Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , [[CBD]] , [[MWW]] , Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Ciena Corporation [[CIEN]] , Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] and Aracruz Celulose SA (ADR) [[ARA]] all look good to me. While it’s true, many of the stocks above represent “watered down” positions, considering that I sold the lionshare of my holdings. Nevertheless, I am still participating in the rally, just not with my balls on the kitchen table while speed chopping carrots.

Bottom line: What’s your cash position?

Where are the doubters now? When I said “I will not curse until 10,500,” most of you thought I was mad, especially since that was 700 points ago. You tilted your heads, similar to how dogs react to strange sounds, looked at the screen and said “grrrruffff.”

Well, I am going to let you in on another secret: I will not be cursing for another few weeks, if not a whole month. The market is overbought, fish face. All of the dumbest people are diving into empty pools here, elated with their market prowess, willing to press the envelope “one more time.”

Luckily, “The Fly” does not fall into such a “stupid camp,” and is now enjoying the luxuries of a 60% cash position. Granted, I dropped 500k on W.W. Grainger, Inc. [[GWW]] yesterday. However, GWW is a low beta stock and will not clown rape me on a pullback, unlike many of the other stocks that I shed. Plus anyway, GWW is a $100 roll play, entirely worthwhile.

My advice to you: do the opposite of what Joe Terranova says and go get your shoes shined.

Be sure to speak in indiscernible patois, all the while thinking of philosophy and the current state of the NYC art scene. When blogging, use words that no one else knows, in order to feel cavalier about oneself. You do know, it isn’t much fun unless someone is feeling dumb.

The internet is a playground filled with adult children, who compete with one another for the praise of ignoble/base human beings, of the lowest order. Nonetheless, every so often, all of the banter produces something of value. Believe it or not, I am grateful for having an opportunity to discuss world events or the current state of my neighbors lawn with obsequious people. It’s like drinking a fine Bordeaux, out of a juice cup with a straw.

I’ve been running iBankCoin for two years now and have made legitimate connections with people that I am glad to consider “friends.” Despite being afraid of meeting “people from the internet,” I have done so and intend on doing so again. “The Fly” is quite the social dragonfly in real life, despite his “interesting”/bellicose persona, here on the internets.

Some fun facts about “Dr. Fly”

• He doesn’t really eat sandwiches, at least not multiple sandwiches at the same time.
• He rarely drinks Monster Energy soda anymore. Instead, he drinks low-cal Red Bulls.
• He obsessively brushes his teeth about 10 times per day.
• And, finally, he doesn’t really slap people in the face with hot slices of pizza, then proceed to kick them down empty elevator shafts.

The whole point of iBankCoin is to do and say what is considered taboo, within the finance genre of the internet, while sticking sharp pencils in the eyes of enemies, as the wins pile up.

In a word: WHERESMYROOTBEER ?

UPDATE: Krull

I bought $500,000 worth of W.W. Grainger, Inc. [[GWW]] into the close, for the $100 roll. Do you know why?

BECAUSE I CAN.

Dr. Fly is all about diagnosing then doing surgery, save the costly anesthetic for the cowards at The County Hospital.

My cash position is insane and my winship is unparalleled. Over the next few days, I will lay the groundwork for my end of the year run, sending my gains into triple digits. In all seriousness, I didn’t like giving back all of that money a few weeks ago. So, now that I am whole again, I decided to take my chips and walk.

Nevertheless, I still have multiple tricks up my sleeves, like 12 gauge shot guns and left over party favors, laced with mustard gas.

Top pick: GWW

Here is some romantic music, for some of you players out there. Be sure to play it for the wife tonight. Without a doubt, you will get lucky.

I bought 5,000 W.W. Grainger, Inc. [[GWW]] under $98.70.

Disclaimer: If you buy GWW because of this post, the laws of the $100 roll will cease to exist. And, you may lose money.

I changed my mind. I went to a full cash position, selling out of a variety of names, including Corning Incorporated [[GLW]] , IAC/InterActiveCorp [[IACI]] and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. [[CMG]] , amongst several others. This is as cautious as I can get, without going short.

In the meantime, I will sit here and THROW, mind you, hot slices of pizza at my trader/servant, while praying to the stock Gods for a SEVERE, and entirely unexpected, decline.

On Thursday, iBankCoin will celebrate its 2nd birthday—much to the chagrin of my detractors. The gates and walls of iBankCoin are tall and the enemy is not afforded siege weaponry, no towers whatsoever. So, you over there in the pink sweater, don’t even think of testing my high spirited demeanor, for I will knock your eyebrows clean off your stupid mug.

The market is going lower today. Therefore, you are better off playing with idle sticks of dynamite today, than messing around with your watchlists. How do I know this?

Answer: Because I do.

Always remember, “The Fly” wins all the time, even when Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] is trading below $2.

Today’s advice is simple: go eat a sandwich. Seriously, get the hell out of here and order something Italian.

I’ll be back later. I am very, very busy.

I am noticing a theme, in recent weeks. Big oil is not spending money, despite $80 oil. I know, many of you millionaires out there will chastise me, saying “that’s because the economy sucks.” Wrong stupid.

Historically, big oil is known to commit blunder after blunder, until they find themselves in receivership.

Fluor Corporation (NEW) [[FLR]] announced bad numbers last night, blaming it on weakness in oil and gas. A few weeks ago, National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] said business sucked, for lack of a better word. If you have some time, go through the earnings reports of some oil/gas parts makers; they are terrible. It’s almost as if these morons were operating in a $10 crude environment. In all fairness, I suppose they were simply flabbergasted by last year’s $140 to $30 oil slope to hell. Now, these paranoid 10 gallon hat wearing hillbillies are hoarding cash.

Also, small cap tech is really coming up short this earnings season. From [[RAX]] to TriQuint Semiconductor [[TQNT]] to TeleCommunication Systems, Inc. [[TSYS]] —buyer beware.

The one leg of my thesis that I feel most confident with, at the present, is foreign stocks. They have been kicking Uncle Sam in the nuts for some time now. God willing, they will continue to do so, AND MORE.

On a pullback, I like POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] and Aixtron AG (ADR) [[AIXG]] . I’ve been waiting to buy the LED parts maker, Aixtron AG (ADR) [[AIXG]] , for awhile now; but it just won’t go down.

Bottom line: be careful with small cap oil into earnings, for big cap oil is really stupid and cheap. And, as always, pray for the market to dip again, so we can get some pristine entry points. As you know, I am 40%+ cash, at the moment.

Never question my market hand again. Ever.

Into today’s victory, I took profits. My cash position is north of 40%. My year to date gains are back to highs, about +85%.

Two stocks on my “must buy list,” providing they dip, are : U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]] and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] .

In a word: WHEREISMYROOTBEER ?