ALL HOPE IS LOST: CRASHING OF THE CLOSE IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION

It’s happening now. The recession that was never meant to happen is happening. We have a collapse in sentiment and German natural gas imports have been hilariously halted. The world wars were for nothing, as Germany is back at it again — attempting to kill Russians in what appears to be the sole purpose of the German government. You’d think after all of the history between the two nations, the Germans would sit this one out neutral. But they simply cannot help themselves.

We also have parity with the Euro and dollar — a staggering decline for the currency that is a foreshadowing of a great doom to come between the liberal world order and the east.

I’ll refrain from making predictions outside today and only suggest that you cash up and/or hedge — because this fucker is going to fly into the floorboards by the close.

It doesn’t surprise me to see natural gas up 10% and the NASDAQ -200, since that’s exactly what western leadership is aiming to achieve with their war against Russia. We should expect more of the same in the coming months, and much worse, as all of Europe heaves over into a pit of ice and freezes over this winter, in the name of Nuland.

Might I add, both bears and bulls alike will find the market difficult to trade on a day to day basis due to short squeezes and out of nowhere collapses. This is what a bear market does: it wears you down and plays off your emotions and causes traders to err.

This morning we have everything down but risk averse stocks, mostly found in consumer staples and utilities. I entered the session 20% UVIX and barely closed out my trades with profits because of some overweight longs PLUNGING at the open. Even though I lost 2% on Friday and wanted the market to crash lower today, my cards were such that I came out only a mild winner. I accept this very small victory and will build upon it to fulfill my destiny as “world’s best trade, speculatoor extraordinaire.”

Victoria Nuland visited Sri Lanka on March 22nd. Shortly after the country collapsed. But the cause of the collapse, at least in this case, wasn’t because Victoria paid a visit, but instead due to ruinous climate policies imposed on them via the IMF.

The details are nothing less than staggering.

Sri Lanka was supposed to be the neo liberal pet project to usher in bullshit agricultural policies, similar to what they’re trying to do in Netherlands and Canada now. The premise: cattle is bad. Fertilizers are bad. Use synthetic crap. Eat bugs.

The west pushed ESG/green policies on Sri Lanka and their society collapsed AS A RESULT.
Dated 2021 pic.twitter.com/LPaGxEjraV

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 10, 2022

The net result was a collapse in rice yields, famine, and forcing the Sri Lankan govt to import rice at elevated prices. Previous to this experiment they never had to import rice.

pic.twitter.com/Nl3BXGKssN

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 10, 2022

Over the past 50 years the IMF bailed out Sri Lanka 16 times. There is something to be said about enabling and there’s also something to be said about signing a deal with the devil.

The initial phase of the month to date rally was thought to have been fueled by an overall collapse of commodities, hence the belief that inflation was abating. The way the minds of traders works is, less inflation equals less Fed hikes equals higher stocks prices because dogs are accustomed to eat when they hear the bell ring.

If you look at some of the raw commodities the past month they’re all down 10%+, some more severe. We had briefly begun to worry that commodities were dropping too hard, equating to a collapse of the global economy — but quickly rebounded from that train of thought last week with a stabilization of commodities and leadership in beaten down sectors like SAAS, biotech, electric cars and solar.

If you take a gander at some raw commodities the past week, the inflation scare might not be over.

Palladium +12%
Natural Gas +8%
Cattle +4.5%
Uranium +4%
Lithium +3%

I’d argue that absent an appreciable move higher in oil, these second rate commodities will be ignored by markets.

Oil was DOWN 2% the past week.

All biases aside, the market has plenty of room to the upside because of how much it has fallen. In Stocklabs we measure the avg loss of all stocks, some 5000+ names, and they are down 23% for the year. We can very easily rally another 5% from here and history would never even know it. To get there, in my opinion, we need commodities to stay put — not collapse and certainly not surge. If that can happen, coupled with stagnation in the Russian war, we can have a summer rally.

Of course I don’t believe it will happen and truly would like to root against it — but I don’t make the rules.

I traded like a fucking moron today. I should’ve held my FNGD position and fucked off — but no I had to fall into sand traps and fight all day to just achieve LOWER LOWS. When I am cold like this, I buy when I should sell and I sell when I should buy. I do the opposite of what works and sometimes, being aware of this curse, I attempt to do the opposite of the opposite, but that seems to end up bad too.

In the end, it makes most sense, if I am being honest, to just buy a bunch of shit and sort it out the next trading day. I closed long and hedged with 20% UVIX. For this to work, all I require is WW3.

Perhaps news of a Russian MIG shot down in Kaliningrad, or maybe China will get involved by sinking an aircraft carrier or two. Bottom line: I need this shit to happen by Monday.

Either way, I will sell and start all over again — attempt to regain my balls. I am +1.5% for July and the month is young enough for me to really do a lot in either direction. I must admit to feeling flustered by today, since it was an ATYPTICAL day for me. Nevertheless, I press on and carry about my life with sincere hopes of catastrophe and doom.

HAGW.

I wanted to believe, so I closed out my shorts just about at the session highs and went long some names, keeping 80% cash, and this resulted in me EXTENDING my losses to 1.65% for the session. My knee jerk reaction is to remedy this and over-trade, but it’s probably best I do nothing until later on.

The rally failed and now we’re swimming lower and I was stupid enough to fall for the trap, so I deserve these losses.

Can we rally into the close?

Absolutely not.

On second thought, I might hedge right now.

Which, as you know, as soon as I hedge the market will bottom and my losses increase.

DEVELOPING…

Given the state of the market, which has been bullish as of late, I am cautiously bearish on this final day of the trading week. My positions from yesterday netted a loss this morning and now I sit here with just a 15% weighted FNGD position and cash, down 55bps.

The likelihood of a face ripper is remote and I really don’t have the stomach right now to deal with potential churn, so I’ll accept any losses that could result from holding the FUCK FANG stocks trade.

There are many out there who believe the market has bottomed and it’s smooth sailing from here. Those people are wrong.

The former Prime Minster of Japan Abe was shot in the back last night from what appeared to be a makeshift gun. The last word from officials is Abe was without vitals, not breathing, en route to the hospital.

Fire official in Japan says former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was not breathing, heart stopped while being airlifted to hospital for gunshot wound – AP

Here are some pictures/videos from the scene.

Seconds after Abe Shinzo, the former Japanese PM, was shot.
People are screaming,

"Call an ambulance!"
"Who shot him?!"

The guy on the mic at the end,
"Are there medical experts? Please give us your hand!"#japan #Abe

pic.twitter.com/FDiDKKnXM0

— Limeade JP (@limeade88361563) July 8, 2022

High quality video showing shooting of Shinzo Abe Japanese ex PM @AbeShinzo pic.twitter.com/Lwz9gtS9YA

— Suprmann (@Finance_d0ct0r) July 8, 2022

pic.twitter.com/o1RrJBDXUe

— ??mai?ke?? (@maike809588) July 8, 2022

UPDATES:
Reuters, citing Japanese media: The suspect in the shooting of Shinzo Abe is a former member of the Maritime Self-Defense Force.

The Nasdaq has been higher in 5 of the past 10 Fridays, marking a shift in the market on a day that had been a slam dunk for lower prices. The warmer climes have brought cocaine brains to the forefront, drunk, hedonistic, speculative thinking people without a moral bearing. There is nothing important about what is being said on CNBC — just the typical nonsensical recency bias permanent bullish jargon.

I closed the session higher by 200bps, STRETCHING my YTD gains to +58% in a public portfolio that cannot be debated. I have laid my case in front of all of you but have also given myself enough leeway to change, as any good trader should.

I WILL NOT BEND ON THIS POINT HOWEVER:

Betting on markets heading higher is a bet on globalization and the west. In my opinion, this is a poor bet and the inevitable outcome in this war being waged will be LOWER prices. As a society we are broken — a fractured people by an occupying force who intends to buy your blood. Only sentimentality and older men in America is worth regaling in. Everything else is rot and leadership is non-existent in what appears to be the most substantial shift in power experienced since WW2. Only this time, we are the Axis.

https://youtu.be/l12NQXmJ0JY

There is something to be said about hiding behind Ukrainian soldiers in the manner the west is doing so. They are sending everything they have, equipment, training, resources, intelligence — in an attempt to stop Russia from removing them from their vassal state. Thus far, they have slowed Russia — but the trend is bearish for the west and it is cowardly to continue this proxy war with the western leaders’ bold statements and provocations without actually putting western lives at stake.

In a series of choice comments today, Putin called them out.

PUTIN: WE HEAR THAT THEY WANT TO BEAT US ON THE BATTLEFIELD – WHAT CAN I SAY, LET THEM TRY

PUTIN: RUSSIA HAS NOT STARTED ANYTHING IN EARNEST IN UKRAINE YET

Russian Pres. Putin: We Don’t Reject Peace Talks But ‘The Further It Goes, The Harder It Will Be To Reach Agreement With Us’

PUTIN: WEST IS DEGENERATING INTO TOTALITARIANISM

RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN: THE COLLECTIVE WEST, LED BY THE U.S., HAS BEEN EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE TOWARD RUSSIA FOR DECADES

RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN: SANCTIONS ARE CAUSING US DIFFICULTIES, BUT NOT ON THE SCALE INTENDED

And to cap it off.

PUTIN: WEST HAS FAILED IN NEW ATTEMPT TO CONTAIN RUSSIA