Not Buying Spikes

With the 20% cash I have left, it is reserved for “buying the blood” only. Although I believe there are absurd values out there right now, like WLT, WNR, FLS, I need reserves for the “holy shit, dude, did you see that”? moment. Having 80% long is enough to participate in today’s reflex, better than expected, jobs report rally.

I am sure the numbers were fudged; but who gives a fuck? We need a little respite, in order to give the incompetents in Europe time to fix their mess over the weekend.

I do not believe we will sell off into strength today. However, I’ve seen crazier shit happen.

One thing is for certain: I am addicted to bailouts. Some of you fuckers were correct in chastising me yesterday for asking for government help. But I hope you understand I am not looking for private sector bailouts. I want those idiots to fix their own sovereign issues. In other words, I want government to bail out government, plus throw in a little QE3 on the side for us for the novelty.

Why do I want QE3?

Because it makes the market go up.

Are you surprised? Don’t be.

I’m not gonna judge this tape until 11am.

Hell, now that I had time to think about it, all sorts of horrific scenarios came to mind. I just haven’t had any blow ups like this in a long, long time. Check my archives. I covered my shorts when the market bottomed in 2009 and went long.

I had some real old fashioned blow ups in 1997, 1998, and 2000, the type of shit that makes you seek God for protection. I recall seeing accounts heavily margined going “negative equity” and oversized positions down 50% in a day. My CEO was running back and forth to the trading desk, clearing out margin calls at 10am. Did I ever tell you about the time I got RAMP’d?

Back in 2000, one of my biggest clients came to my office to visit. When I walked into my office, much to my surprise he was there, looking at stocks—all 6’7 of him. Unfortunately, his largest position with me, as well as many other clients, was RAMP, down 50% for the day— from $20 to $10— on an earnings miss. We discussed the catastrophe in great detail and agreed to cut our losses. RAMP came back, eventually, just prior to going bankrupt. But I needed to clear my books of it, mainly to regain a psychological edge.

The one thing that comforts me on days like today is knowing I will make it all back. I’ve done it so many times, it’s ridiculous. There’s a reason why they call me SAM (Space Alien Magician). Whatever the market has to offer tomorrow and Monday, fucking bring it. Do your worst and make it stick.

I live for days like this, back up against the wall, fighting for survival. Thank God, Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy I was near all time highs, going into today’s trade. I had this trade nailed, then Congress distracted me with their idiotic debt ceiling manufactured crisis. And I got lured back into equities, YESTERDAY, by allocating 30% of my cash to my current positions. There is no sense wallowing in my own feces over this shit. It happens and you fuckers need to man up.

I don’t want to read any pussy shit on this here blog. Keep that shit for other blogs.

With the 20% cash I have on the sidelines, I will perform great feats of magic.

At the end of the day, it’s only paper with hideous faces on it.

I’m the guy who said “take cover lads.”

The stupidity of you Tea Party people is astounding. You say we shouldn’t depend on the Fed and how we never needed to bail out the banks. With your ugly mugs, you tell people we should let things fail and just reset. Well, fuck you very much, that doesn’t do it for me. I am only interested in what will help the markets go higher, not destroy civilization and start a anew just because you failed at this one.

It’s gonna be interesting to watch these moron Congressmen try to balance the budget as tax receipts spiral lower. Don’t you understand the budget CANNOT be balanced when the economy is depressed? Go ahead, clamor for upheaval and deal with the consequences. A great man once said “be careful for what you ask for because you might get it.”

In a world without banks or solvent ones, you will be forced into local tribes or clans, warring with rival tribes for resources. I will head up an armed clan invasion into your bullshit neighborhoods and use your house for firewood (there will be no heat due to utilities gone bust).

This is a midsummer nightmare for me, as I am crashing lower, down almost 10% for the day, even with a 20% cash position. I have given away most of my annual gains in just one day. Some of you will take this opportunity to praise yourselves by besmirching me, so be it. I will have my revenge on you, one way or another.

Margin liquidations are pushing the indices to new lows. I anticipate some hedge funds will blow up and lead to an unmitigated disaster in the equities markets. You might find pleasure in the destruction of society; I spit on you and would like to scalp you Indian style. The issue at hand is ineptitude, from the Europeans and here in the US. We have a President who wants to raise taxes in the midst of a fucking disaster and the other party obsessed with balancing a budget. This is a recipe that can only be concocted and designed by the devil himself. It’s only money and there are other things in life that are more important. But if you believe our biggest problem is balancing a fucking budget, friend, you are nothing more than a blue collared jackass and well deserving of the future section 8 checks that you will be sustained on in the future.

This was the worst trading day of my career.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-b3iU-INDo&feature=fvst 616 500]

I am too upset to blog in full sentences, give the absolute dismantling of WNR. So, I will throw out some random thoughts. Whether you agree with me or not is not relevant.

Obama is a dicksucker.
The Tea Party people are the most ignorant facet of society since the neanderthals clanned up and attempted to kill T-Rex’s with dull spears.
You cannot balance your budget out of an economic spiral. Moreover, you can’t raise taxes on the rich and expect things will get better.
There is no way out for Italy and Spain, unless ECB cuts rates to zero and monetizes their own debt.
Congress is unfit to govern.
The Fed needs to act soon, else we will crash. I do not give a fuck if you believe inflation is a risk, as it’s all a fiction and figments of your overactive imagination.
The inflation story never had legs, since wages never went up. It was all manufactured. Now it’s being dismantled.
I am more than upset today, but depressed. I was 80% cash last week (50% yesterday, 20% now) and looking to position into TLT in the low $90’s. The debt ceiling debate distracted me from the real issues at hand.
Fuck you Congress.

Perhaps the ECB will do an EMERGENCY rate hike, in order to stave off inflation. The Italians are stuck in a giant bowl of meatball soup, dragging the rest of Europe down the shit hole with them. We are at a point where the Fed needs to intervene right away, else we shall dive much, much lower.

Is that good for the economy, Rick Santelli?

Of course not, fucktards.

If the market gets down 20-30% from the highs, the economy will tailspin lower, fucking the world to the tenth power.

The economy recovered sharply off the 2008 lows. However, the underlying problems still persist, starting with the illiquidity at the banks. The prospect for further stimulus here in the states is nil, mostly thanks to the Tea Party. After all, they need to fight that fucking inflation. Without stimulus or QE3, confidence will wane to the point where systemic risk grips Europe until it is choked off. The contagion will spread to Latin America, Asia and then here, first on a muni level, then on a national level.

10 year rates are at 2.5%!

One can make an argument that Congress exasperated the bloodletting with their ineptitude. Without confidence, nothing works. What you are seeing right now is a classic panic and a massive change in sentiment. I am getting crushed today and fear the selling can continue, especially going into the weekend. The only way we rally is if the Fed intervenes and ASAP.

The Italian stock market is not updating, after dropping more than 3.5%. Most markets are off by 2% and U.S. treasuries are soaring. I cannot predict how this will turn out in the near term, as human emotions tend to run wild during periods of duress. All I can suggest is to make sure you are not leveraged and try to avoid buying junk.

I’m getting my cock chopped off here, with WNR knifing lower, alongside a variety of other positions. Like a stock market imbecile, I allocated 30% of my cash into this market yesterday, just in time for the shit storm. I am not having a good day.

I’ve managed to survive all sorts of markets, even come back from the dead when I nearly lost in all in 2000. During the 2008 market melt down, I was positioned short and was able to turn the ship around for the 2009 long trade. Last year, when QE1 was ending, I was heavily positioned for a decline, betting the Fed would not initiate QE2. Furthermore, I felt even if they did, it wouldn’t matter. I was taught a very valuable lesson back then and care not to repeat those lessons.

When things looks thew bleakest, most horrific, is when the buying opportunities arise. Of course this could be different, especially since there are whole country’s failing. However, NOTHING goes up in perpetuity or down. We may look back on this period as a significant buying opportunity. Or, we may look at it as the beginning of the unraveling of the markets.

We all make our beds and lie in them. Right now, I am down over 4% for the day, nearly fucking myself to death in a variety of risky plays, yet here I am blogging like a fucking moron. I have work to do and it might not be pretty. I might sell or I might buy. At the end of the day, I am a survivor and will make sure I live to fight another day. My gains are still double digits, year to date, and I can risk a little bit more down here. But it’s fucking hard, Ringo, real fucking hard.

Let’s put things into perspective, shall we?

This is a bad tape, but not so bad. For the love of broken blue radios, we’re not even down 10% from the highs. People on the teevee are busy, with their pancaked make up, making you nervous. They are, without a doubt, fucking clowns.

It never feels good being on the receiving end of a murderhole. But what is the probable outcome here? Will the Fed just watch the economy double dip into the oblivion?

I think not.

The Bernanke put is alive and well. We’re going into the Jackson Hole meetings and the economy is in the tank.

Now, if you are short this market, you must be aware of the fact that the government hates you. The stock market is all we have now. It is our #1 export. Despite what your emotions are telling you (OMG WE’RE GONNA CRASH), there is a face ripping rally coming. The world doesn’t end like this, seamlessly without a fight. I am not sticking my head in the sand, ignoring the great and real problems facing the market today. I am simply positioning where the higher probability trades lie.

Remember, just last week everyone was giddy, snorting coke off the asses of gorillas. Now the world is ending?

Fucking drama queens.

WNR hedged their way out of a great quarter, AGAIN. Although they beat on revenues by almost $400 million, they fucked up again on EPS. Like I said in a previous post, they might be retarded, so don’t get mad at them. I suppose one could make the argument that they were simply being prudent, in the face of record spreads and a high debt load. I don’t buy it.

I am not in good mood and will be listening to their conference call at 10am.

On a side note, TDC beat nicely and the market is going to melt the fuck down today.

Cheers!

Okay Ladies and Gents, this is it! CVI and TSO quarterly reports are in and they were stellar. I am long of CVI (no Gartman) in small size and expect to bank coin on my shares tomorrow. But the 10,000lb gorilla snorting cocaine and smacking people in the faces with pancake pans is WNR.

On the skin of my cock, WNR shall report BETTER THAN EXPECTED NUMBERS tomorrow and guide the fuck up. Mind you, if they do not, the management at WNR is retarded, so don’t get mad at them. They’d have to be physically disabled to fuck up 321 cracks of $30+ and 20%+ Brent to WTI premiums. I mean, the CEO would have to roll into work in a fucking stretcher every day and gamble company profits on DNDN calls on a daily basis to miss this quarter.

I expect the shorts will catch spears through their skulls tomorrow, then tossed aside onto flaming barrels of garbage for easy disposal.

Aside from crazy anomalies, in my opinion, the only way WNR trades down tomorrow is if they announce a secondary offering, which is possible, considering their debt load. Plus, the relative share price is high. I hate to shit on your umbrellas; but that’s how the capital markets work. Don’t get mad, just deal with it and quit bitching about piker shit.

Barring an offering, “The Fly” will be fully robed and sandaled tomorrow, burning incense in his office until the fucking fire department is dispatched. I am crowned by the Gods, administrator of banking coin on these here internets. You should conduct rituals on my behalf and offer sacrifices in my name, as payment for what I do here.