Hell, now that I had time to think about it, all sorts of horrific scenarios came to mind. I just haven’t had any blow ups like this in a long, long time. Check my archives. I covered my shorts when the market bottomed in 2009 and went long.
I had some real old fashioned blow ups in 1997, 1998, and 2000, the type of shit that makes you seek God for protection. I recall seeing accounts heavily margined going “negative equity” and oversized positions down 50% in a day. My CEO was running back and forth to the trading desk, clearing out margin calls at 10am. Did I ever tell you about the time I got RAMP’d?
Back in 2000, one of my biggest clients came to my office to visit. When I walked into my office, much to my surprise he was there, looking at stocks—all 6’7 of him. Unfortunately, his largest position with me, as well as many other clients, was RAMP, down 50% for the day— from $20 to $10— on an earnings miss. We discussed the catastrophe in great detail and agreed to cut our losses. RAMP came back, eventually, just prior to going bankrupt. But I needed to clear my books of it, mainly to regain a psychological edge.
The one thing that comforts me on days like today is knowing I will make it all back. I’ve done it so many times, it’s ridiculous. There’s a reason why they call me SAM (Space Alien Magician). Whatever the market has to offer tomorrow and Monday, fucking bring it. Do your worst and make it stick.
I live for days like this, back up against the wall, fighting for survival. Thank God, Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy I was near all time highs, going into today’s trade. I had this trade nailed, then Congress distracted me with their idiotic debt ceiling manufactured crisis. And I got lured back into equities, YESTERDAY, by allocating 30% of my cash to my current positions. There is no sense wallowing in my own feces over this shit. It happens and you fuckers need to man up.
I don’t want to read any pussy shit on this here blog. Keep that shit for other blogs.
With the 20% cash I have on the sidelines, I will perform great feats of magic.
At the end of the day, it’s only paper with hideous faces on it.
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japan down 4%…for me I am sitting it out…have no idea what the fuck is going to happen…who the fuck know plus our govt is too slow to react
Maybe you should also own a time machine like the Fly.
It’s in the shop. Broke down yesterday.
sign of a treu (sic) man … if you cant laugh at yourself you cant laugh at others. That is “manning up”
Your Govt. does care about you, you are on your own. get used to it…”>
not
your right, they dont give a fuck, but they are always late to the party…wait it out and buy when they step in
Dude,
I love your writing style, you are very entertaining…sorry you had a shitty day. I will be listening in the future and watching your comeback. Hang in there and keep up the very entertaining shit you write. lata – Matt
Pull your nose out my arsehole gary, dogs do that…you’re not a dog are you gary?
One of your best posts. Winship is inevitable with that kind of spirit.
merely pitstops on the way to Winship ln.
Boo Rahh!! Fuck em all. (keep the helmet on though) “>
Not my usual opinion but, THAT is a fine post, possibly the most carefully crafted I have read. In further thought, My Worst Day is not today or any past day, but will be when He comes like a thief in the night.
“At the end of the day, it’s only paper with hideous faces on it.”
should have read…
“At the end of the day, it’s only paper with hideous faces on it and I’m still far wealthier than most of you peter-touching cock-gobblers.”
nothing is inevitable except that we will all croak
Wrong again.
One of my account (free money margined to the max gambling account) got negative equity today. Terrible.
Not sure I’ll put money back in it.
Of course I will…
Damn, sorry to hear that.
Sorry about what? Money going back in?
The loss you fucking ape.
no wimpy thoughts, u wimp, BUY MORE!
Now you’re talking, Scooter!
That’s le Fly we know & love.
If you think today was a bad day, wait till tomorrow! This sell-off ain’t done yet. You need to wait till Tuesday for the Fed to say anything, and the ECB won’t do anything till the weekend. Tomorrow is a -1000 day!
I’m gonna fucking ban you before the sun rises.
CNBC said there are 10% more downside risk. Hope tomorrow is not too brutal.
whenevr the CBBSers start jawing makes you wonder where the tape will really go
CNBC also interviewed some random fool on the street who had just visited a Fidelity office to deposit cash. He said, “they say to buy the dip, so I’m following instructions.”
I’m gonna fucking ban you before the sun rises.
Won’t he have to annoy you three times, first?
____________
FIG:
I’m very much a macro bear. In fact, I’ve been pretty much 100% cash since April (just in and out of a few trades on the short side since then, although I finally put a little bit of long money to work right at the close today). That said, a day when only three stocks out of the entire S&P 500 close in the green is about as washed out as you can get, and anyone who’s still short right now is playing a VERY low-percentage trade.
I was looking at the heatmap and saw just about everything was red too. The reason I think we have more downside is that we closed at the bottom of the day. There was no buying in sight. This has the same feel as 2008. I was expecting this to happen in 2012 though.
I am hoping we get this tomorrow. A bad jobs number and a gap lower. Then a massive rally making up 50% of today’s losses.
I just don’t see it happening quite like that. We need ECB intervention tomorrow or we drop 1000.
I understand that finishing on the bottom of a red candle is ugly, but the huge volume surge today makes it look like a short-term wash-out. Maybe we retest– or even slightly penetrate– today’s lows tomorrow, but then I expect to see two or so weeks of consolidation and perhaps a bit of a bounce. I’m definitely not “broadly bullish,” but if we even have $88 of SPX earnings going forward (vs. the $100+ consensus), I could easily see a 13.5x multiple on that in an environment of a sub-3% 10-year and that puts the SPX right around where it is now.
Go read Wood, first. Statistics may have nothing to do with it, second.
This is a panic, not a random act.
ur an idiot and the best contrarian indicator
Next week the Great Clam will bring the hammer down.
I recall reading a horrific story of a strangler that would strangle his victims to the point they passed out and let them recover again and begin the routine all over again,
There is an important lesson here for all of you aspiring money managers. One of the many reasons The Fly is the best in the business is that he admits the occasional battle defeat when it occurs, but know with unequivocal certainty that the war will be won AND MORE. Humility in the ire of vengeance.
I vividly remember the RAMP’d post, here it is.
Never let a setback let you down. You get RAMPd, RAMP them back three times as hard.
In-fucking-deud. There’s people who fold and slither away, and there’s people who fold, squint their eyes at their opponent, grind their teeth, and plan the defeat over the person who claimed temporary victory over them.
Flash crash was the worst day for me. All my shit got stopped at lower prices only to see that shit close higher for the day.
Except that on flashcrash day there was a bounce back. Today was like flashcrash in slow-mo without the bounce!
I had 40% of my book in VXX on Flash crash day.
If I wanted to, I could fucking see who is thumbing me down and ban all of you.
Thanks for putting it in perspective Fly. I do love this stuff.
Live to trade another day. That’s all. Nothing more to say.
Maybe one more thing:
Yodel a little. It just might tweak the Austrian Boys a bit.
Some evening levity in the form of some Banksta Rap: Bankers vs. Management Consultants
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROlDmux7Tk4
“Free on nights and weekends with no discernable skills?
Not sure if you’re a consultant or my cellphone bill!”
FLASH ! ! JOBS REPORT COMES IN BETER THAN EXPECTED !! SHORTS GET SMASHED !
I don’t think job report matters that much.
What happened today was a mirror image of flash crash in 2010. we will recover, but will touch the lows again and we might even go lower.
Today was bad, but it was nothing like the Flash Crash day. Everyone is saying that because the market went down hard. That’s about where the similarities end.
but the effect is the same. shell shocked.
no it takes a few day to correct the damage that was done today. people will be leaking their wounds tomorrow regardless and will crawl in fetal position and ask for forgiveness tomorrow and they will promise that they will not touch any stocks for ever.
been there and done that.
1/3 bottle of scotch day.
I guess your day wasnt too bad then … Johnny Walker and I havent finished our evening just yet … I have a feeling the morning will feel like today .. afucking spade to the head !!
I prefer Macallan 10 yrs. It’s not the most expensive but it’s rather nice.
At the rate anybody long today was going, we can’t afford the 18 anyways!
1 bottle of caberne savergnyon,
Now I know why doctors have bad hand-writing…
__________
Worst day for me was tripping on acid (back in the day) and went to take a piss and it started to burn, never a good sign. First thought was that bitch gave me something. Off to the college infirmary to have my junk prodded with a type of dip stick they stick down end of your dick to do a swab, the LSD did not enhance the experience. It was a simple yeast infection, much like today.
ROLMFAO
Got the clap in the seventies, you know, a shot, pills for 12 days no booze for 21 days. Not me, I’m makin sure I ain’t pissin no more fire so don’t drink for a month. So when I get smashed and do the same girl, back to the Navy hospital, same fuckin doctor looks over at me sittin on the bench….Same girl? He asked. Fuck you (I thought to myself but merely nodded). I need those fuckin pills!!!
Sounds like some shit that would happened in Olongapo.
Yokosuka
Meesohoney.
________
New wsj headline in newspaper misspelled rout. The printed “route”
Collectors item!
You got today’s paper already?
__________
Naturally … he’s a SAM!
Fly, what the fuck happened today. the severity of damge points to a perfect storm, but it was barely cloudy.
the proble with Italy was there yesterday too, ECB fucked up by contradicting each other, no fucking big deal, they do that all the time. fucking pussy triche always does that and nobody pays attention to him. then armagedon, fuck you you are dead, action out of market with domino action castarting your balls off.
I got fucked through two dimensions, WNR and fucking MOTR.
but reading your post calmed me down and I have to sincerely say that you are my hero.
Yeah, I lost today… but I’m in cash now and having a child in~68 days. Somehow the loss doesn’t matter much. I will teach him how to trade fine furs for cognac… None of this shiny metal bs in the mad max world
first baby, if so save for the kid her or she needs it with all the fuck that is going around us.
I was stuck in a lab/cave all day. When I got out the DOW was down 500 and I thought WTF? Fortunately, I’m 100% cash and couldn’t give a fuck. It occurs to me that now that Obozo has $1T to spend, the bankers want to pull a fast one like they did in 2008/9. They want the money going to them and not too some lame jobs program.
Same deal with me. I had no idea what was going on until about 6 pm. I am about 60% cash and if tomorrow is a down day I will start trickling cash into blue chips and oil more for long term investments
I was at my sons football practice today and my boy got plowed like a fucken sack of potatoes the hardest hit the coach has ever seen. The best thing about it was his little ass bounced the fuck back up like nothing happened. I’m not here to hang of Fly’s coat tail but if a nine year old kid can take it grown ass men need to man up when shit gets bad. Live to fight another day.
agree, but this market has done this to me over 10 times in the past 10 years. who said buy and forget. it doesnt work
@fly. F*^& YEAH!!! Now lets throw some chicken wings at the neighbors!
I got my WNR chopped off today, sold out well short of the closing price but still took a massive loss on it. But at the end of the day, I’m not panicking. All I did today was re-learn a few expensive lessons… never put your faith in management that has proven to be terrible in the past, and wait for the market to stabilize when it’s in a panic before going heavily long. I knew all year the market would melt the fuck down after QE2, I just stupidly convinced myself it wasn’t going to happen when it ended and everything didn’t implode immediately.
Time to see if the S&P holds 1200 tomorrow, or if it’s time to start shorting to make up for today’s clownrape.
Watch the ECB
If they don’t get on board the bailout train then we are going much lower. Germany is fighting the stimulus tooth and nail.
This is a political disaster. The Germans are Tea Partiers on steroids. The jobs number doesn’t mean shit(it might give us a bounce). All eyes are on Europe.
agreed
I am normally politically neutral. The tea party, however, seems like an extremist Republican sect.
The tea party is just a bunch of regular people who understand that the government has royally fucked us over and wants them to stop. They don’t fully comprehend the utter devastation that will occur as a result, and a lot of them are war mongers, the latter being my main beef with them.
Extreme is a debt/gdp ratio of 100%. Extreme is trillions in unfunded liabilities with a tanking economy. Extreme is printing hundreds of billions thinking it will make a dent in the deep structural economic problems that have been building for decades.
The concept of extreme has become inverted because we are so utterly and completely fucked.
John nails it.
And I repeat… as much as they’d like to shrink gobmint, it ain’t happening. Therefore, they have nothing to do with the economy heading for the double dip, nor today’s meltdown.
.
______________
The Tea Party is fighting to keep the government’s hands off of Medicare, and they will destroy anything that stands between them and their goal – even reality, if necessary.
Yeah, sure Ottnott, Ryan’s plan really reflects that aim.
Moronic, designed to instill-fear statements like the above aside, the “Tea Party” isn’t even a proper party with one set group of aims or standards.
It’s a loose agglomeration of private citizens who are (for the most part) concerned about the US Gov’t’s current and incipient balance sheet problems. As far as certain individual pols identify themselves with the TP’s aims (like Paul Ryan), those pols are bravely making Medicare reform a key component of their overall financial plans– all the while being attacked by Democrat fear spreaders for cheap political gain.
To ascribe to the Tea Party-types the actual motivations of the reactionary Democrat Party in order to discredit them is deceitful. Whether you will admit it or not, Ott, It’s only when the Democrats stop using Social Security and Medicare scare tactics that we will ever be able to address the embedded problems within those programs.
I don’t believe it’s likely they will abandon those tactics, however. It’s pretty much all they’ve got left in the bag.
___________
Ah, the Santa Claus Tooth Fairy issue. The tooth fairy puts a quarter under your pillow when you lose a tooth. Santa puts a bike under the tree when you don’t got no shoes. Wunnerful, both of them. They’re wunnerful.
You can’t blame the Germans who pay taxes for not being willing to bail out people from other nations who do not.
but that is what we do in our country. 20 percent of states will carry 90 percent of the burden of the federal budget.
The Germans should not be in ECB then
The Germ-mans believe in Santa too, just like us. They just don’t believe in a free lunch.
Fuck ze Germans. Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
HELL NO. And it ain’t over now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsmybQKpmTw
Where’s the spirit? Where’s the guts, huh? This could be the greatest night of our lives. But you’re gonna let it be the worst. NOT ME! I’m not gonna take this! Let’s GOOOOOOOOOooooooo….
I think you are over dosing on something.
Or quoting one of the most famous American comedy movies of all time.
Where you from Dish?
__________
they should have dismanteled the country after WWII and named it Israel. then alot of our problems would have been solved.
Had one of my worst days today in a long time. I plan on making it all back then some shortly.
I have full faith in Ben Bernanke, however I have zero faith in the Eurofags to fix this.
You should change to bull-ISH ?
If you thought yesterday was bad, just wait till today. Dow -1000.
I don’t care if you have to pawn a kidney, to “Chumlee” from pawnstars
Buy EDC (emerging markets) like crazy
The Emerging market sector ( China, Russia,India,etc) is not going to collapse to zero because someone overpriced a condo in Tuscany
Um, yeah… check tonight’s blog post for my #1 recommendation for tomorrow morning.
Wall Street Journal endorsed and everything!
______________
Get ’em while they are hot!
Lol at more peas
Visualize whirled peas.
Going into today I also was about 20% cash. My cash percentage is considerably higher now and I didn’t make a single trade today.
The Fly abides.
I think 12631 or PPT will kick in tomorrow to save the day.
Try walking into a client’s office for a meeting, not hearing anything he’s saying due to the buzzing in your head because 30 minutes before, you read on Bloomberg the fucking headline, “Freeport Reports Insignificant Gold at Busang”…and your portfolio is long of one stock…Bre-X. So yeah, me too, I’ve seen worse. 😉
Wow! helicopter and all, wow.
At Busang, and Canton, and Hill 59. Donnie woulda wanna id thad way. QED
Born in the summer of 1940, he was the fifth of a dozen children born to Herman, a doctor, and Hermine Felderhof.
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/features/brex/story.html?id=4a9067da-963f-4be8-99ba-d68dc7c95341&k=15575
“I wish you fuckers would quit trying to shake me out” – arch, circa summer 2010
I swear he’s still watching. Pretty sure he lost his nuts in FAS and has been clamoring in cd’s ever since… But in the spirit of Arch, now seems like a good time to send in a probe bet to test the waters for a bounce. Lol
Yeah, Arch, WTF happened to you?
It’s like all the bankers and economists were juggling chain saws and everything was going good until . . .
Bye Bye BAC
Second biggest buying on weakness stock today according to WSJ.
Right after emerging markets.
__________
My worst day…in a past life, toss up from getting the plague or getting an arm chopped off and kicked in the nuts by some fuckin hun. Today…power is on, food in the frig and all my kids are still alive but lost a little money which I can make back. I guess it’s all about perspective.
Compared to the time I was drawn and quartered, today was just an annoyance.
Very pumped and motivated, Commandant Fly. Took a severe beating myself today (-15%). As I am nowhere near your level, I’m trying to understand why you would only work with 20% of sideline cash for the comeback. Should we not cut our loss and perform magic on a clean slate… or do you feel we are leveraged to the best upside with the current holdings? Either way, chinstrap buckled, jockstrap secured… ready to fight on the front line.
Btw, what’s with the Rand Paul ad trolling in the house of fly??
Righteously.
______
Fuck that was a bitch today… where the hell was the Plunge Team when you need them.. must be a fucking myth.. no way congress and Obama can go into the election with the market in the tank.. at this rate we will see 666 again next week.
PPT headed up by GS.
They gave him the Italian Salud on his birfday !
Denninger – Italy Rumors
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=191473
its not about todays loss. Its the fact that I and many here predicted a downturn coming and like a fucking idiot i tried to get in for one last ride up yesturday. It looked so bullish i bought the google weekly calls based on the hammer chart. i read woodshedders post last night and knew i was fucked. I will remember that post forever.
He may have been 6’7, but you are the giant among midgets.
FIG.
The ECB wont let a single large bank fail and they will buy all PIGS bonds if and when necessary. The market will price this in and stabilize.
Global growth outside of the developed world will continue.
Johnny
They don’t have the ability to do that. They don’t have the ammo the Fed’s got.
Hearing word out of sources in Italy that shit is stirring up again today.
Futes taking a hit. GOld is up
OEW Daily Recap: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/08/04/thursday-update-292/
“Long term support should first appear around the low of Primary II at SPX 1011. Should that fail to hold we’re looking at the low of Major wave 2 at SPX 869. It’s not good news. In fact, it’s quite disappointing. We expected, and the waves projected, a lot more upside out of the bull market. But as we have reported foreign markets, and market internals started to break down. When the selling pressure became too intense to support additional higher rising trends, Primary waves III and V truncated. Yes, we had five waves up from the March 09 low, and yes, it was a bull market.”
“Short term support is at the OEW 1187 pivots, and then 1176 and 1168 pivots. These two lower pivots created support during Major wave 4 of Primary wave III in November 2010. Overhead resistance is now at the OEW 1222 and 1240 pivots. Short term momentum continues to diverge but has been of little help. Daily momentum is now extremely oversold. The short term OEW charts have been negative since SPX 1335. Will take a strong rally back to 1260 to turn them positive again.”
Futures getting absolutely decimated again
Down 88 points on the DJI
Jesus Cristo save me.
BWW
Tomorrow we will all wake up dead.
Oh I hate it when that happens..
Up we go, weeeeeee this is fun!
ROFL @ up we go. We will be down 1000 down points today.
Obama is the second worst president of the last 100 years. Bush Jr. takes the cake as the worst. With back to back losers running this country things could get really ugly soon. Instead of bringing the parties together to get things done which is what this country needed, Obama has been more divisive than Bush. We need a president that focuses on the most pivotal issue this country is facing today and that is getting the engine of the economy humming again. There will be no inflation without wage inflation, there is no need to be fighting two wars half way across the world, and there was no immediate need to change health care. Slash our defense budget by +20 percent and put these funds into infrastructure development. Oh the defense companies will have to slash jobs, okay, that’s just a displacement of the workforce that is necessary now. Let’s build high speed rail on the east coast, lets fix our bridges, roads, and schools. Let’s create an environment where there is less dependence on cars and oil. For that matter, let’s invest some of that defense spending in environmental research like increasing mpg for our cars. I believe we all feel this is necessary, just wish we had leadership in this country with the balls to stand up and do it.
Too little too late. We are fucked!
Those same moves got Kennedy and Lincoln killed.
The boys will be creating a bigger, scarier war soon since they need to offset all of this austerity talk.
LOL… Whaaat?
________
Watch for an Israeli airstrike in Iran soon…you’ll see.
You are imagining the president does not work for the Special Interest Groups, that he cares about the good of the country’s economy as a whole? Where did you get that idea? It’s been a long time since any president did that– maybe Eisenhower or Kennedy.
Government is a machine for sucking the taxpayer dry and giving the money to the Special Interest Groups that finance political campaigns. Such a machine is unlikely to do the thngs you mentioned. Maybe if we all voted for cadidates who do not accept any money from Special Interests, it would happen. Otherwise, it’s as likely as unicorns appearing.
debt summit coming to a G20 camp soon
Fly, You awake? Well tomorrow they are going to try and rally off of the commodities and sell off of the Ozzie. But just reading thru the RBA statement I see no reason why? OK if NFP blows bad then QE3 could cause it, but i really think NFP should be inline ish…In 2009/2010 so many people were fired, they really don’t have that many anymore to let go….we will see…
Open -100 on Dow, drop all day, close -1000. Bank on it.
pay attention to your family, fuck this market , go to work, come home barbque, this too shall pass.
the Q just dont have the same taste after days like yesterday, and again today. that shit hurts like sticking your wnr in a box fan while it’s on high
the day before this happened , i warned , i posted, it was in the numbers, i not that bright , but saw this,
8:00am /ES +1.50. Let’s see how long that lasts?
i hope we go higher, but jobs r the key, but inless there teriffic, we sell off…
We sell-off regardless.
lol i can still hope, all in cash,
There is one good sign I see. The ES was down 10 at one point overnight and came back. It’s good to see that it could actually rebound. Expect some wild swings this morning and then down all day like yesterday, only worse!
sold gld yesterday was 50% of my port, seemingly the dollar will gain on europes troubles.
GLD won’t sell off much, even with the dollar going higher. This world is going down the crapper quickly.
I was expecting this action in a year. Now that it’s happening a year earlier, it will make next year’s crash that much worse.
I love the anticipation for the 8:30 report, as if it matters.
I just clicked an ad to assist Fly with his losses. .50 can’t hurt.
lol
ta-daaaaaaaaaaaa good no,
I can’t believe you didn’t play the 6’7′ video after this post.
Fly relapsed on vino and is sleeping it off.
Nice payroll numbers. good enough for a 100 point gain pre-market. This too shall pass. -1000 DOW today.
lol, fridays r fun, mondays will b interesting………europe the wag dogging the tail,,,,,as it were
Monday will be the day the market comes back some in my opinion. The ECB will be forced to act as their markets implode into the close. I could be wrong, and hope I am, but there is no way we get out of this without intervention by the ECB.
Pretty sure I will sell my small SMH (29.82) swing trade on the small gap up this AM.
Payrolls still sucked at this point in a 2 year recovery and not enough.
Doesn’t smell like market capitulation yet.
Need to see waves of selling with the tape running 25 minutes behind and the vomit buckets filled to the top.
yep
Now that I look at it, a lot of the stocks on my screen are at major support levels. We should get a bounce, then a turn-around with a HUGE drop once those support levels are broken.
Buy this market hand over fist u fools. We now go back up 500 points! I think humans never learn, it must be why i feel like an alien sometimes, I sit alone, think alone.
And now its Friday?…