Fly Sell: WNR

I sold 50% of my WNR positioning, putting me net short by about 10%.

Buying stocks up here is no different than spraying one another with high octane gasoline, while smoking cigarettes. What will happen when Greek debt holders take a “voluntary” 50% haircut? See, I am not so much concerned about the losses, which will be horrific. I am interested in hearing the Euro leaders tell CDS buyers of sovereign debt their insurance is no good.

If you own Italian debt and have insured it via CDS, how worried are you about that “insurance” right now?

If Greece defaults, but doesn’t let the CDS trigger, I sense there will be a run for the exits on any sovereign debt in question. It’s like buying puts to hedge your long bets. What would you do if the market crashed and your longs got smashed by 60% and some authority declared your puts to be invalid? I’d never buy stocks again.

There is no easy out, in other words.

In other news, CAT posted good earnings, which bodes well for basic material stocks. And, ORCL bought RNOW (nice trade Howard Lindzon), which should buoy the tech sector. There is definitely a sense of complacency out there. You’ve been conditioned to believe nothing can go wrong, because you’re accustomed to sucking government tit.

Finally, going into November, I will be allocating funds towards gold and silver stocks. Traditionally October is a bad month for gold. Conversely, November is a fantastic month for precious metals. Keep your eyes on Italian 10 yr yields. I don’t care how cheap stocks look. If Italian yields keep edging higher, we will collapse under a flaming vat of refined light sweet crude.

Here are the facts: the SPY is up 9.56% month to date.

The last time we enjoyed similar gains was in April of 2009 (+9.94%), September of 2010 (+8.96%), April of 2001 (+8.54%) and March of 2000 (+9.69%).

So what happens after such huge runs? Stick around and I will tell you.

In May of 2009, the market soared by another 5.84%. In October of 2010, the market moved up by another 3.82%. In May of 2001, the market declined by 0.56%. And, finally, in April of 2000, the market dropped by 3.52%.

It’s important to note, since 1993, the market has increased in October by 5% or more four times. Without failure, each October surge spilled into November.

Of course, percentages are meant to be evened out, eventually. And, past performance can only serve as a guideline to future events. But it’s important to respect momentum. When the market gets going, especially into Thanksgiving, it does not relent.

Obviously, if things do not reverse quickly, I will have no choice but to close out my hedges and get long. Even though I missed out on the last few percentage points, I remain at annual and all time highs. It does not look good for the bears, frankly. The news is horrific, but prices continue to move higher. This is classic bull market behavior, whether I like the reasons or not.

My big task is to find stocks that conform to my new risk tolerance level. Into the final months of the year, I will avoid high beta tech and basic material stocks, aside from the ones I already own, in favor of predictable free cash flow food and beverage companies. Naturally, this will evolve or devolve into early 2012 river boat gambling. However, for now, this is where my focus will be concentrated.

The Peanut Gallery was nuked so that we could replace it with something better. All of this depends on your contributions being coherent and somewhat useful. While the majority of you offer worthwhile information, far too many serve as intellectual chum. In part, this is my fault, as my jovial, foul mouthed rants attract the lowest form of internet web surfer.

Perhaps it’s time for a change?

Going with that theme, I will begin “curating” the viewership here on iBC. Remember, there are two levels of banship on iBC. The nice ban is prohibition against commenting on the site. The onerous version is full “get the fuck out of here, ban your iP address” type that disallows access to the site–sent to the Greg Solomon reeducation camp (GSRC).

To date, we’ve banned over 1,100 from reading the site. While some bloggers would love 1,100 more people to read their shit stained diaries, I curate. I treat this website, as if it were my own home. If you revolt me, you’re gone. If your jokes wear thin, you’re gone.

If the site itself doesn’t work as it should, I lose my temper and make sure it gets fixed.

We all have a place in this world. Some of you are meant to take up space, while others are destined for greatness.

All kidding aside, the bannings will continue until morale improves.

As for the market: futures look okay, ahead of bad European negotiations. It’s ridiculous, plainly. I dare you to bet against me. Better people than you have tried and now find themselves in 200 sq ft apartments in Queens.

You all know how religious I am.

Instead of doing the grunt work myself, I implore you to read the entirety of this Encyclopedia Dramatica post. Pure gold.

Excerpt:

remove your worthless ($7 DD) account -> bank loses no revenue -> bank no longer needs the support staff to deal with your shit -> bank fires the least educated employees -> banks profitability & margins rise.

See, these protesters are simply trying to make banks healthier.

UPDATE: Due to the fucking spastically retarded nature of this blog, I am no longer able to hyperlink to other blogs or sites. As a matter of fact, this blog is a ghetto dump and I am unable to do a lot of things, like embed media and/or properly indent in a post. Just like America, iBankCoin’s finest days are behind her, as neglect and malfeasance infects the attitudes of her caretakers, rendering the site 2nd tier, regrettably.

Here is the url to the site I am trying to link.
http://encyclopediadramatica.ch/Occupy_Wall_Street

FUCKING PATHETIC.

If you are an idiot, you might love this movie. Whoever made this movie missed out on a huge opportunity at greatness in favor of dumbing down the story to relate to people with IQ’s less than 90.

The movie is redundant, with constant “OMG” moments. They paint the bosses of the investment bank as fucking morons–who know nothing about MBS. It’s unrealistic and ridiculous. Towards the end of the movie, they obsess on compensation, as if the writer just wanted to twist the knife into the watching audience. One of the junior pikers is appalled that his boss made $2.5 million the year prior–again, totally unrealistic.

Out of a possible 10 thumbs, I give it a 6. It’s too bad Hollywood is unable to make quality Wall Street films. It seems they are only able to make shit about fucked up villains and/or cold callers ripping off idiots from the midwest with penny stock scams. Fuck Hollywood and their brush.

This is a blessing for me, as it prevents me from having to sit in a movie theatre of squalor, amongst filthy upright standing pigs.

Margin Call, due to lack of distribution has been made available via iTunes. Even better, the cost to rent the movie is less than going to the theatre itself.

You’re welcome.

http://itunes.apple.com/us/movie/margin-call/id472616473

I haven’t made a single trade today. My positioning is just fine, despite my 20% allocation into TLT yesterday.  My losses are very mild and I do intend to make them back soon. It’s a slow Friday afternoon, ahead of the apocalypse. Europe doesn’t have shit going on. LIBOR is rising on a daily basis, as well as Italian, Spanish and Portuguese 10 yr yields. They are bluffing and you will learn these lessons soon enough.

The ceiling for the month of October has been reached. We trade lower from here, then spike in November. That’s the way this is going to play out, whether you like it or not.

“The Fly” has managed to freeze himself in time, pinning his 16% gains to the wall, regardless of the tape. My research in the food and beverage industry will be completed this weekend, giving me names to buy into weakness.  I am pleased that you made money in this tape, even if it was the result of blind bullishness. Optimism is not something to besmirch. The world needs more people like you, in order to build funhouses and clown cannons.

My life is designed around the idea of destruction. Even when building up iBankCoin’s traffic on a monthly basis, spreading the word for almost 4 years (our anniversary is coming soon), I am obliterating numerous 3rd tier sites without regard for human life.

I have laser beams, orbital space cannons and Saddam era SCUD missiles domiciled in my Brooklyn silo. Do you really think I give a fuck about a little 175 point melt up, whilst largely in cash and/or hedged?

Have a good weekend.

UPDATE: I sold short EXH

I don’t go to the movies often, aside from mandatory children films. But I will be seeing Margin Call.

Trailer
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2DqFRsPrns 603 500]

Review
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39eIvH_Arto 603 500]

Rotten Tomatoes 84%

Most of you will not be offered an allocation in Groupon because you keep accounts at Zeeco and are literally nobody on Wall Street. However, there is a conduit to get in on all of these hot privately held names, even before the ipo fuckers get an allocation. The solution to your piker problems lies in the shares of GSVC.

Per GSVC’s 10q:

GSV Capital’s current portfolio provides exposure to investments in venture capital backed private companies including Bloom Energy Corporation, Chegg, Inc., Facebook, Inc., Gilt Groupe, Inc., Groupon, Inc., Kno, Inc., Serious Energy, Inc., SharesPost, Inc., Silver Spring Networks, Inc., TrueCar, Inc., Twitter, Inc., ZoomSystems and Zynga, Inc.

Since then, the company raised another $30 million and is in a position of strength to make additional investments. My best hunch, they take a piece of Yelp next.

Bottom line: the stock price of GSVC trades like shit, with low volume and little momentum. However, if the ipo market opens up to the likes of Facebook, Twitter, Zynga and Gilt, that is going to change quickly.