GOODBYE 2011

It was a year spawned from hell, helped along by the incompetence of politicians, worldwide. Equity markets plunged, save USA, and most people lost money. I close out 2011 a winner, but barely. Having booked my worst year since 2002, I am motivated to tighten the reigns and outperform in 2012. Although I expect more of the same, fueled by a debt crisis that simply won’t go away, my destiny will not stand for two years of mediocrity. Bank on that. I’ve designed strategies to deal with it and will enact said plans in 2012.

I want to thank those of you who make iBankCoin the best destination for meat loaf throwing and financial discussion on all the internets. If you find yourself still able to read this site, odds are you have been filtered and accepted by the iBC cognoscenti as “a person of great interest.” The rest of you fuckers have been banned.

To be perfectly forthright with myself and many of you, I’ve failed to live up the gold standards of investing excellence in 2011. I attribute my setbacks to the unprecedented level of sheer fuckery, where traditionally reliable correlations failed, in exchange for low percentage outcomes. Meaning: all of the things I’ve learned and come to rely on, through the many years investing, was thrown into a blender, resulting in random outcomes. Randomness is my enemy, as it cannot be controlled.

If there is one thing I successfully predicted was the compression of US yields, as evidenced by the price of TLT. I was buying it in the mid to high 80’s. But I let that victory slip away, like so many others. I endured painful losses, similar to the absolute tyranny taking place in DECK today.

Without a doubt, I bid 2011 farewell and wish it never to return again. I endeavor to wipe clean any and all memories of this God forsaken year and will look to start anew in 2012, with fresh ideas and better stratagem.

I hope you all enjoy the New Years celebrations and inebriate yourselves with conviction as if this was the last, for it might very well be exactly that!

Pardon my absence from the internet, “The Fly” has been busy procuring provisions for the annual New Years eve festival at Le Casa del Fly.

The market, for the most part, has been sitting idle–waiting for an opportunity to pounce on the bears. My position is static and unbendable, as it is my custom to behave in such a manner. I have positions that I feel should trade higher. Therefore, instead of exchanging them for others, I simply wait.

Granted, waiting for losers to become champions is a painful process, which entails a large capital base. For that, I am eternally grateful. Someone like yourself, devoid of food, needs to plod along, wandering the jungle night, looking for even a beetle to devour.

In 2012, there will be wholesale improvements to the offices of iBankCoin. I gather my enemies will tremble, naturally so. And, I know my friends will help in the construction of the greatest financial empire the internet has ever known. You shall all bear witness, soon enough, of exactly what the fuck I am talking about.

What a delightful end to 2011. I particularly enjoy the erratic 140 point up and down days on no news. It’s like a summer breeze swooping in, meddled with infectious diseases.

I will not hide from you the obvious, as it is not my custom to do so. The furry boot stock that will not be named has maimed me today. Aside from that treachery, my other positions were flat to down, leading to a -2% day. This is quite severe, especially since it happened on a +140 day.

If you glanced at the general indices, one would surmise a rather lackluster year. However, those of us who trade every day understand the difficulty of this tape, which has led to the destruction of almost every single momentum stock traded, save AZO. I’ve had an unusual amount of calamities and for the most part consider myself lucky to still be alive and in the game. But this business of bouncing from one landmine to the next grows tired on me.

For the time being, despite my better judgement, I am holding onto DECK, while third rate analysts smirk, triumphantly, from their low brow chambers.

It looks like silver has finally stopped going lower, offering respite to beleaguered silver miners. Shares of EXK and AG (my favorites) are sharply higher. But is now the time to buy?

I’d wait.

Although I thought buying in yesterday might have been a good idea, I wouldn’t chase EXK +6.6%. Just to give you an idea, silver and miners alike were flagged OVERSOLD yesterday inside The PPT. Members were fully alert to this distinction. I opted not to play, only because my plate is seemingly full. Nevertheless, the information was conveyed.

Using our 6 month time frame algo, each time (5-0) EXK was flagged OS the stock surged ahead to the tune of +10%. So, seeing the stock up nearly 7% today, well, that takes the wind out of those sails rather quickly, doesn’t it?

On the other hand, AG shares the same track record, averaging +9% after OS and is only +2.8% today. If you want to take a shot in silver, AG might be the better play, from a risk/reward standpoint.

As for ZSL: it was flagged OVERBOUGHT yesterday for the 16th time in PPT history. The results after OB: 1 up, 14 down for an average loss of 14.5% over 10 trading days.

Mathematical precision.

Despite my better efforts, the majority of you are still commenting on iBC without top hats and gloves. Consequently, as 2011 winds down, I will be banishing quite a few of you from court. However, don’t let that get in the way of a healthy and grotesque fart, as you drive down the freeway belching with your wife.

It is true, I am being injured, yet again, by the shares of DECK, which happens to be a 15% position. This alone is dropping my gains by 1% today, as shares sink to fresh lows amidst earnings shortfall fears. It’s also true that I’ve been outspoken about my disbelief that warm weather equates poor Uggs sales. Moreover, I’ve been an ardent supporter of the valuation and growth prospects of DECK. With a cost basis just over $90 and very few days left in the year, this is definitely leaving a mark. If it’s not an over-reaction, then someone has some inside info and is selling ahead of that news. Believe it or not, I am not the CEO or CFO of DECK and have no idea what the fuck they are doing in Kangaroo land.

Perhaps it’s just me or the cloud that is following my top hat, but today’s 100 point melt up feels anemic.

If this wasn’t the time of year when people panic sell and book tax losses, I’d just cut the loss on DECK right here, right now. However, since I am in a patient mood and since I’ve yet to see any news pertaining to weaker than expected sales, other than some opinions of third rate analysts, I am inclined to wait and see.

I predict I will lose a great deal of money in DECK today, thanks to seemingly warm weather.

Apparently, we’ve all become Barney Rubbles, walking barefoot throughout the wilderness. The stock is down another $4.5 on no news.

Separate from DECK, the general market looks okay. I am not enthralled because breadth is still weak. But that will likely change throughout the day, as shorts gets compressed into panini sandwiches and eaten with fries.

If it wasn’t for Europe, I’d be rather constructive over US equities. Hell, the news isn’t that bad and companies are banking some serious coin. But then you have the big eastern mystery that is China. It can longer be debated, China is slowing. How else can you explain the draconian pullbacks in commodities? You know they are building ghost cities to keep people working. Well, apparently, they’ve slowed down. Consequently, the prices for raw commodities have plunged.

Either they are an incredible buying opportunity now or the party is over. It’s your call. I’m too busy eating granola.

2012 will be the year to “pay the piper.” All of the drama of 2011 will be resolved in 2012. The year will start off with a bang, with indices spiraling lower amidst renewed panic of imminent european bank runs. This contagion will spread to latin america, asia and finally the United States. For the year, I expect the S&P to drop by a staggering 50%, marked by bankruptcies in almost every industry known to mankind. There will be panic and most certainly pain. Most of you will not make it out of 2012, as the market gobbles your portfolios whole. Nevertheless, you will continue to read iBankCoin, as it is your duty to do so.

Here are some more specific predictions.

• BAC will file bankruptcy
• Most large European banks will collapse, alongside the fucking euro.
• Bank runs will become all the rage in Europe.
• Nigel Farage will be raised to legendary status.
• Obama will in fact WIN a 2nd term.
• Mergers and acquisition with the software sector will remain prolific.
• The first half of 2012 will be mired with an astounding 35% loss in the S&P 500.
• The market will stabilize during the summer months, post collapse. However, renewed panic will present itself in the fall.
• US GDP will barely stay above 1%
• Unemployment will be in the 8-9% range.
• Europe will be in depression.
• Chinese GDP will fall to 6%
• Indian GDP will fall to 4%, pushing its currency to new lows.
• QE3 will be enacted in early 2012. The initial response will be positive, then fade.
• TLT will trade north of $200.
• In late 2012, signs of a Japanese debt crisis will emerge.
• The European Union will collapse, alongside the euro.
• Multiple EU countries will be considered insolvent.
• The VIX will trade up to $100.
• FAZ will zoom.
• Venture Capitalist will suffer their worst year in a long time, mired by negative publicity regarding the mispricing of IPO’s and the second dot com bust.
• Social networking companies will be viewed as a value, post collapse.
• Facebook will withdraw its IPO.
• “The Fly” will positively nail the 2012 Armageddon trade with space alien magician precision.
• The dollar will soar, as well as the Yen.
• The United States will begin armed conflicts in both Syria and Iran.
• Oil will fall to $60
• Gold will fall to $1,200, then soar to $2,100
• Silver will fall to $15, then double to $30

The world will not end but it will suck.

As you can see, RBCN is up today, offering “The Fly” a semblance of respite in an otherwise abysmal day. According to the scientific laws granted to us by The PPT, TZA is increasing in value, making a winner out of those who adhered to its rules.

I find it interesting to see gold and silver getting punched in the cock, so late in the year. It’s almost as if the stock Gods designed to punish John Paulson one final blow before 2011 was completed. Without a doubt, both gold and silver will be worth buying soon. As a matter of fact, it may be worth buying now, providing you have cash reserves to average down. However, my plate is filled to the edges with LULU, DECK, RBCN and GSVC. My cash position is about 25%.

All in all, the end of the year will prove to be uneventful. The Italian bond auction of late January looms and there is no one who can know, without a doubt, what is on the singular mind of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel. Because of that, one much tread carefully in this market and respect the macro-catastrophe that will come to fruition.

NOTE: At 5pm, iBC’s annual predictions will be released.

We were overbought and now we are working it off. My best guestimate puts the S&P 3-4% lower before we are oversold. However, that will not scare me out of my positions, as it is my custom to ride through shit storms. As you know, I own TZA on two occasions, one was the initial purchase and the other an average down. I should have bought my third and final tranche yesterday; but I was preoccupied eating almonds all day.

I did warn you about gold and silver, didn’t I? Your heads must be made of cement and metal to ignore the warning signs. Don’t worry, it will be a buy soon, at lower prices.

Finally, I’ve come to the conclusion that moving down south is not possible for Le Fly. Frankly, the level of sheer ignorance is too high in many of the places I’ve scouted. Unlike others, I do not base where I live on tax burdens or political ideologies. If I were to do so, I’d live in Greenland. No, I will pay my taxes, albeit a very high amount, and adhere to the laws of the state. I’ve concluded that New Jersey is my best bet, for a variety of reasons. Mostly, I appreciate the close proximity to NYC. I only tell you this to dissuade you from sending me ridiculous brochures through the email, pitching your state to me. Governor, I spit on your state and shit on your flag.

As I sit here at 2am, reading a good book, accompanied by a sublime cup of Earl Grey, your behavior disturbs me. As God is my witness, I’ve tried to culture you to the ways of a gentleman. Much to my chagrin, the majority of my work has been ignored, as the lot of you opt for burritos and french fries instead of a proper Michelin meal. You singularly tarnish my person. However, I will not yield.

Over the course of 2011, I’ve been forced to ban over 400 so called “readers” of the site for rude and ungentlemanly behavior. To be candid, I cannot blame many of you for your actions. Firstly, the ignorant and the poorly bred lower tier of our society starts at a disadvantage, not knowing how to demonstrate proper decorum amongst other gentlemen. Secondly, the internet is filled with hucksters and TIMS, which in turn makes “The Fly” that much more unbelievable. To witness the superfluities of iBankcoin and to be threatened by the caprices of some whimsical, almost majestic, space alien magician is almost too much to bear. For that, I offer you 10,000 apologies.

However, my question to you is, Sir, where is thou top hat?

I mean, really, do you expect me to endure this baboon-like behavior forever, without yielding to my own whims of removing the comments section altogether? You are far too generous with your boorish demeanor.

Although we do monitor most of you via direct access to your laptops and webcams, I cannot be concerned with your behavior outside of iBC. But when you are here, rest assured, the law will be upheld and all trespassers will be held in contempt. To put it bluntly, untoward mannerisms, even spastic, involuntary, actions of the head, feet and hands WILL NOT be tolerated. You will be subject to swift action, which entails mustache removal and/or full ban, without pardon, to be reeducated by a certain Greg Solomon.

Good Day.