EMERGENCY BUYING SITUATION

I am a bit panicked by today’s gap up in futures, frankly. I see everyone else on ferris wheels and roller coasters, having the time of their lives, eating cotton candy and popcorn, and all I can think of is ” boy, do I wish I can throw those people into the gears of that ride.”

My situation is as follows:

I am long VXX tits and a TZA steed, alongside egregious amounts of TIF, CPST and ALJ. Actually, let me retract that whole, fucking, sentence. My cash position is north of 60%. Therefore, I am sitting on the sidelines, a mere spectator in the game of money changing.

However, I had grandiose designs of buying dips and taking advantage of the margin liquidations of others, like a vulture gnawing away at a corpse.

This is what I have to choose from, as far as dips are concerned.

(2 week return)

MTW -12.8%

ALJ -11.5%

EXK -9.5%

LUFK -8.4%

CREE -7.2%

JOY -13.8%

BTU -13%

TCK -11.6%

FCX -11.6%

JNPR -10%

POT -9%

CLF -8.5%

FSLR -37%

DECK -24%

TC -23%

ADTN -20%

IAG -11%

AG -10%

My choices is pretty straight forward: buy into the Chinese sensitive stocks, despite signs of a slowdown, or wait for the market to come to its senses.

Ha!

My point: there are dips to buy and perhaps this is a good opportunity to step in on some of the above names, for a trade.

All that aside, TIF is still my top pick.

A blog war that is, one that I support with full vigor and tenacity. Without droning on about how much of a lowbrowed, degenerate, miscreant, TIM is, in every meaning of those words, I know for a fact that he is a danger to any investor, mainly because he is a two bit huckster and mountebank of the worst order, fleecer of all that is good and worthwhile.

I give you poetry in Lindzon G Major:

Timothy Sykes is a despicable person. I feel a bit better just finally writing this even though I know it won’t stop him from scamming people.

That said, I have worked hard enough on this blog to build a trusted following that will help pin some real insight into the search engines that lead people to his awful websites. This is a public service, get it off my chest post.

I have a pretty open door policy. It is obviously dangerous. It is easy to find me. The big danger I have learned is that not just lazy and dangerous people can walk in with a good pitch, but extremely cancerous people.

Timothy Sykes barged through my doors in 2007 and as a favor to him (after we had been purchased by CBS), I introduced him to the crew and he was a guest on the show. He shat on our brand. Ha. Good one.

When I started Stocktwits he would email over and over saying he wanted to be an angel investor. He knew one of my good friends an angel investor as well in Stocktwits. I said he could invest. Phil Pearlman and Soren almost killed me. They were pissed. I said it could not hurt. Wrong.

Within a few days, Phil had blocked him, his spam accounts, his mother (seriously) from spamming the site with penny stock ideas and putrid behavior. But, he (his dad) was an investor and I had my head down. He went away for a bit.

When Soren and I started Stocktwits, we would argue over ‘filling holes’ early. I thought there should be a Twitpic for charts. Soren said let the community build it. Timothy Sykes wanted to build this for us. Soren and Chris thought it was a bad idea. I wanted to go fast. We agreed to pay Tim and his ‘partner’ $10,000 and 50 percent of ad revenues for the finished product. Very simple contract. Chris and Soren rebuilt it a year later but we honored the contract. Chris is still mad at me and rightly so.

In the end Tim sued Stocktwits (honestly we have no idea why) and ran up his legal bill (I heard this from a source who was friends with the attorney who was not getting paid by Tim), north of $40,000. We had dug in because of the silly claims. We settled with Tim for an amount very close to his legal bills, but I have no idea if Tim paid his attorney. Tim continues to harass me and friends and other people on the financial web. That will never stop. I have offered Tim an interview on this directly if he would show me that he paid his attorney. Pretty simple request. That was a few months ago and he replied that his ‘lawyer’ said I must be tricking him.

The good news is Tim sold his Stocktwits shares. He said at the time, he needed the money (well before the lawsuit). He made $15,000 from my count (enough to cover some of his legal bills).

Genius.

I don’t even want to go into how awful his websites are or how impossible and misleading his profit claims declare. I do want to warn people. Here is an email I received from an acquaintance just last week who got the Timothy Sykes penny stock pitch…

Got a phone call from Tim Sykes crew…LOL They asked me to trade with them…then turned around and asked me to buy 5K worth of ‘training material’. I listened to the spiel and all the talk….bottom line is they wanted me to pretend like I was a new trader and be willing to do interviews based on money that I had already made…and attribute it to Tim’s system….lol wow.

I have more. It’s the same stuff under different websites he fronts or hides behind. People hate him and like sharing their hatred of him. Like I said in my title…Tim is a cancer. This is the Wikipedia definition of ‘Malignant Tumor‘ and it does describe Tim and his web tactics pretty well.

For the first time in my blog I will turn off my comments as this is not a discussion for me.

Source: HOWARD

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDnpqEuiieo&feature=player_embedded#! 603 500]

He sold batteries to none other than THE EVIL NATION OF PERSIA (No Xerxes).

So I find out late in the session that “The Devil” is buying VHC, suggesting it’s going to $80. At the time, the stock was up just $1. It should be of little surprise to you to see it up more than 12% today.

Also, shall we discuss FSLR? What the fuck is going on there? This is one of those moments that defines buying opportunity or precedes a full fledged implosion of a company. Although my gut is telling me to stay away, the stock is very compelling at these levels.

I managed to lose 0.1% today, thanks to a late day implosion in VXX. My number one play is TIF, going into earnings on 3/20. If Sterne Agree is correct in saying there is a 0.92 linear correlation between TIF and equity prices, TIF is poised to beat earnings, handedly.

Tomorrow is D-day for Greece, with regards to debt restructuring. Again, I’m not interested in that news story; but instead, I am fixed on Chinese related stocks–commodities and industrials alike. Should money continue to flow out of these stocks, I will redouble my VXX efforts.

My buy list includes: MTW, CREE, TDC, ROSE, EXK, BID, TRIP and YELP

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZP4kioRtqLE

As of now, refinery stocks are best correlating to the overall markets, offering investors outsized returns for their patience.You can fuck around in oil, gas or even coal; but make no mistake, the refinery sector is where the money is being made, with ease and honor.

The wonderful thing about the refiners, aside from $30 crack spreads and $17 Brent-WTI spreads, is the scarceness of supply. Meaning: there are only a handful of big refinery companies in America, since it’s illegal to build new ones. We fucking criminalize the refinement of crude. There are outlier plays in the chemical industry worth noting, like NEU.

Here is the heart of the refinery sector aka all you need to know:

VLO
TSO
WNR
CVI
ALJ
DK
MPC
HFC

That’s it! Follow the crack spreads and Brent-WTI spreads closely and get long mid-contient refiners when the Brent spreads widen and you should be good. However, if and when they get the infrastructure in place to better distribute crude from West Texas, look out below.

For now, the sector is on fire.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTK7Sh9aM4U&feature=related

It looks like the Greeks will manage to restructure their debt and US employment data will be sufficient enough to sustain high unemployment. However, that does not guarantee higher equity prices. Remember, recent weakness has nothing to do with Europe, but more to do with the ongoings in China.

The fucking Chinese are scrambling around like eggs, trying to boost their GDP, in the most moronic way possible. Think about it: they have planned to grow their economy at 7.5% no matter what. And we look towards that model as being something to behold, the highlight of the global economy? It’s a crock of shit, totally devoid of reason and logic. The end result will lead to massive debt and a slave labor market, with a comedically high divergence between the rich and poor, sort of the direction we are heading towards now.

I do, however, like silver and gold at these levels. It’s always my “go-to” sector following a decline. I follow the path of high probability trades, through mathematical precision. The vast majority of you simply scrounge around, leading the life of a servant, analyzing thousands of charts, spending countless hours looking for “the right stock.” As for me, I do all of that shit, AND MORE, with one click, as I have digitized your stupid charts and brought together all of the predictive elements known to mankind and put them on my laptop for the explicit purposes of banking coin (NO CIRCULARIZING).

At any rate, I will not chase the morning spike. Instead, I will watch with intense curiosity, preparing to ambuscade the lumbering investor henpecked by forced sales.

It’s coming.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8XTTh4Q9To

“Never bet against the guy in the fucking time machine.”

The PPT is flagging OVERBOUGHT for ZSL and OVERSOLD for a variety of silver/gold stocks, like EXK and NGD. And, to boot, UUP is flagging OVERBOUGHT on our 12 month algorithm (ranges are measured over 12 month time frame). Make no mistake, these flags are some of the most accurate indicators in the algorithm and have always made me money. Theoretically, I should be buying right here, right now. However, I am going to wait another day or two before stepping in, mainly due to the looming Greek crisis and Friday’s jobs numbers.

EXK

ZSL

UUP

I don’t mind paying up for a high probability play.

Aside from that, I am still eying luxury names, like BID and LUX, waiting for a dip. And, I am long shit loads of VXX TITS and the TZA STEED.

Speaking of luxury, my TIF positions held up well today. I am expecting them to blow out earnings on 3/20.

Finally, CPST and ALJ have been sucking nuts. I have a lot of patience with CPST, proven by my 20% paper loss. With regards to ALJ, earnings are due on 3/8 and I expect them to not disappoint. As of right now, I am up a modest 0.25% for the day, with 60% of my assets held in cold hard cash, awaiting your margin liquidations.

Indeud.

Sterne Agee has some great research out on retail today and how equity price correlate with sales. Out of all the names in their universe, TIF has the highest correlation to stocks at 0.92. Considering stocks have been on a fucking tear over the past three months, logic dictates TIF will blow the barnyard doors off earnings this quarter.

I’m looking for high quality stocks that are selling off, with the hopes of catching the next inflection point higher. I’m not suggesting today is the day to buy. However, I am telling you the whole purpose of having my bountiful cash position is to eventually purchase the liquidation, buy the fear, and put money to work.

Thus far, this is my list (subject to change, posted in The PPT for constant perusal)

TIF
BID
EXK
AG
LEDS
CREE
SONC
WNR
TRIP
YELP
MTW
FWLT
CX
HFC
ALJ
CATM
TDC
IPGP
RAX
BWA
FLS
ONNN
FXY

Granted, my opinion can change, rather dramatically, should the wheels in China fall off. The essence of this sell off is China related, not so much Europe. Make no mistake about it: this market isn’t pricing in troubles in Europe whatsoever. Should we begin to worry about Europe again, banks and brokerages are heading much lower. This sell off is more related to basic materials and industrials, due to China.

Friday’s job number can turn this market on a dime, higher. Or, we can just brush it off and continue to worry about shit we have no control over. It’s very tempting to step in here, with hopes and dreams that everything will be okay. But hope doesn’t pay the bills. Before getting back in, I am looking for a fucking flush out.

In The PPT, we haven’t been this overbought, for such a long period of time, since QE2. This LTRO shit threw the algorithms through a meat grinder and pushed prices higher, no matter what. If we are going to unwind some of that move, it will take a lot more than a mere 140 points to satisfy the wolves who are savaging stocks today.

“Your margin call will be delivered shortly.”

We’re finally getting some real pinless hand grenade action, well deserved might I add. I’ve enlightened you to the ‘chinks in the armour’ and have been warning you of an extreme overbought condition, persistently plaguing stocks. Expect stocks to take on a rakish look this morning, spearheaded by Europe.

Furthermore, I hope you understand there may be a default in Greece, as early as Thursday, if the private sector doesn’t capitulate.

As equities sell off and the lot of you scurry about trying to retain a semblance of deportment, Scott Bleier, Caine Thaler and I look at you with censorious resentment.

The weavers will attempt to stave off a full liquidation and there may be a brief moment of hope during today’s session. But rest assured, this fucker is getting tossed in the blendtec today, much to the bedevilment of the pipe smokers who pray at the altar of subterfuge.

Pardon the phrase; but it most aptly describes the current situation most regularly occurring in the despicable, and hated, great nation of CHINA.

Aside from building ghost cities and excelling at expedient mobile executions of shoplifters, China has become addicted to western culture, most likely thanks to the grotesque YUM eateries inside of Beijing. Everything has a root cause and I am making the case that YUM brands, through its filthy and unhealthy KFC and Taco Bell eateries, have infected the minds of otherwise rational and long term thinking, yet barbaric, people, not so much different than having contracted MAD COW disease (pun intended and with belligerence!). Easily tricked, easily taunted, yada,yada, yada…

Having said that, the centrally planned economy of China is now saying “shit sucks, and we’re looking to ‘only’ grow at 7.5%, motherfucker.’ You might believe this to be wonderful, considering we are growing at 2%, like jackasses. But, remember, our dicks are much bigger than theirs. They have nothing going on but slave factories and rich people who defecate in alleyways–because they find it convenient.

Here in America, we have golf courses in every town, and generally speaking, we’re all rich as fuck.

If the Chinese struggle to grow, their slave factories will lay off people and those people will either starve to death or start cutting off the heads of the elite in the southern districts of SHENZEN. The government is afraid of popular uprisings and has concocted a most outlandish policy of leveraging up hard to build skycrapers for ghosts, hoarding basic materials like this shit was a video game.

Well, I have news for the fucking Chinese: this isn’t a game and soon enough you’re all gonna get tossed into buttfuck prison for playing the game of monopoly wrong.

Besides, your military is weak and we can fuck you up with our capital ships, anytime, anywhere.

The early signs to detect ‘chinks in the armor’ of the Chinese is to view the performance of basic material stocks or anyone who does a fuckload of business in China: like CREE or LEDS.

China related names to keep track of include:

TCK, LFC, JOY, YUM, FCX, WYNN, BHP, VALE, BIDU, CLF, MGM, PKX, MTL, CAT, TEX, MTW and CTRP–just to name a few.

UNRELATED: Reformed Broker had the audacity to steal my phrase ‘murderholes’ that was stolen from the movie Saving Private Ryan, after getting permission from me and attributing it back to me in his soon to be NY Times best selling book. What’s the world coming to?